1. 1Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 EUROSTAT regional population projections Giampaolo LANZIERI Eurostat Unit F-1: Demographic and Migration Statistics

2. 2Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Some basic concepts The changes in population can be ascribed to live births, deaths and migration. The difference between live births and deaths is the natural change. At regional level, migration can be split in international and interregional (net) migration. P(t) + B(t) – D(t) + INM(t) + IRM(t) = P(t+1)

3. 3Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 A glance at the recent past…

4. 4Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

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7. 7 Recent demographic trends There is a clear divide in terms of population growth: in the regions of North-east of the EU the population is decreasing. Basically, this is due to a negative natural change. In some of these regions, emigration has further contributed to the population decline. On the opposite, in some Central and Southern European regions, immigration has compensated the natural decline.

8. 8Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 What about the age structure? Basic indicators: –Proportion of defined age classes on the total population. Ex.: (65+ years old)/(total population) –Old age dependency ratio: (65+ years old)/(15-64 years old) –Young age dependency ratio: (0-14 years old)/(15-64 years old)

9. 9Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Dependency ratios

10. 10Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 …and a look at the future…

11. 11Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Caveat The EUROSTAT population projections are not forecasts. They show possible demographic developments based upon assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration (what-if scenario). The Eurostat scenario is relying mainly on observed trends.

12. 12Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 EUROPOP2004 In 2005, Eurostat has released population projections at national level covering the EU27 Member States. In 2006, the regional detail until 2031 has been added for those countries that provided the necessary data: in total, 17 out of 19 Member States with NUTS2 level, making 197 regions. The regional projections are consistent with the projections at national level.

13. 13Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 EU population is likely to decline...

14. 14Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 …like in most of the EU regions...

15. 15Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

16. 16Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 …but it is certain to age…

17. 17Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 …but it is certain to age…

18. 18Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 …but it is certain to age…

19. 19Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 …to differing degrees

20. 20Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Shares of population aged 65+

21. 21Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Shares of population aged 0-14

22. 22Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Old age dependency ratios

23. 23Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 The drivers of change

24. 24Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 The drivers of change

25. 25Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 The drivers of change

26. 26Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

27. 27Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Growing and declining

28. 28Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Main messages According to the results of this set of regional projections (Trend scenario): –Nearly half of the EU regions are likely to have a population size in 2031 smaller than in 2004; more than 2/3 could have started a descending trend –All are expected to age –The ageing will take place to differing degrees and timing across EU regions –Migration is projected to be the main driver of the regional population growth

29. 29Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Further reading and data Statistics in Focus nn/2007 Long-term population projections at regional level (pre-print available) Statistics in Focus 3/2006 Long-term population projections at national level Regions: Statistical yearbook, 2006 edition Population Statistics, 2006 edition Statistics in Focus 16/2006 Population in Europe 2005: first results Eurostat Working Papers and Studies Demographic Outlook – National reports on the demographic developments in 2005 Eurostat web site: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu

30. 30Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007 Thanks for your attention For any further information please contact: giampaolo.lanzieri@ec.europa.eu