1. 15/11/2015 3:15 PM Civil Effects Leader’s Training Simulation (CELTS)

2. 2 5/11/2015 3:15 PM WeaponsOf MassDistraction CELTS – Relevant and Ready Constructive, stochastic simulation. – 4 th generation warfare – Uses Gravity Modeling and Inertia to simulate population interactions – Models national will – Audience Commander and staffs at brigade level and above Educational Institutions Goal – Produce plausible outcomes to promote discussion of how to best apply soft factors of war in the current operational environment Objectives: – Gain support of population for US/Allied campaign objectives in AOR Scalable – can model all levels of war In use at USA CGSC Target Population Munitions of the Mind WeaponsOf MassConstruction

3. 35/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS - Technical Description/Approach Java J2SE 6 based Sim Engine User Interface built on OpenMap™ framework – GIS based user interface system allows placement of scenarios anywhere in the world Runs on Army Common Hardware Platform Extensible codebase utilizes OOP patterns and principles Stand-Alone  HLA Compatibility Data Driven – Scenarios developed with readily available, free, or inexpensive software Turn based approach allows simulation of long periods of time in a short training session.

4. 45/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS Operations Asses AOR to determine – Population groups – Order of battle – Approval/disapproval of US/allied objectives Regions coded as friendly, neutral, or hostile based on assessment of population groups

5. 5 5/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS Operations Uses gravity modeling to simulate population movement, communications, commerce, etc. Inertia slows Regions ability to adopt change Drag and Drop Interface allows player to influence the region by – Presence – Targeted actions Opposing sides attempt to frustrate friendly sides Casualties affect national will Visual display provides immediate feedback to training audience as to the effectiveness of their operations. Built-in AAR tools allow focused discussion and learning.

6. 65/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS Operations – DIME & PMESII Currently SupportedPartially Supported Not Currently Supported DIME & PMESII effects unfold over weeks, years, even decades, but we train for only hours or days.

7. 75/11/2015 3:15 PM CSIS Assessment JAN 2008 vs CELTS From: Cordesman, Anthoney, The Afghanistan-Pakistan War: Threat Developments, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Feb 1, 2008, page 29

8. 85/11/2015 3:15 PM CSIS Assessment JAN 2008 vs CELTS CELTS End State May 2009 CELTS March 2008 Initialization Produce plausible outcomes to promote discussion

9. 95/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS - Future Direction Current One-dimensional influence Crisp values All populations Many items implicit Intelligence/sensing Civil infrastructure Trust/Fear of Government Cannot Save Game Cannot input from Files Future Three-dimensional influence Fuzzy logic Specify populations/units More items explicit Intelligence/Sensing Civil infrastructure Trust/Fear of Government Implement Save/Restore Game Inputs from Files Disposition Hostile Friendly Influence moves population along single axis

10. 105/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS Demonstration

11. 115/11/2015 3:15 PM BACK U P

12. 125/11/2015 3:15 PM “Currently, there are no extant models or federation of models that can adequately or completely describe complex human, social, and cultural behavior interactions at the local, national or regional levels.” OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE COMBATING TERRORISM TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT OFFICE BROAD AGENCY ANNOUNCEMENT (BAA) 08-Q-3028 ***************************************************************** ** HSC – Human, Social, and Cultural Behavior Modeling 1 FEB 2008

13. 135/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS – Advancing Toward the Objective Current Constructive Simulations – Largely restricted to 3 rd Generation Wargaming – Do not adequately cover PMESII factors – Do not fully address non-lethal operations – Do not model national will – Real time nature does not allow time for effects of soft operations to unfold CELTS – Incorporating 4 th Generation Wargaming – Covers A broad range of PMESII and non-lethal factors – Rates units and their operations on their ability to change populaces’ support of US/allied objectives – Models national will – Uses gravity modeling to simulate population interaction and influence – Turn based format provides ability to simulate long periods of time in A short training period PMESII effects unfold over weeks, years, even decades, but we train for only hours or days.

14. 145/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS - Designed for Simplicity Current Simulations are Resource Intensive – Simulation Center – Large Contractor Staff – Extensive Training >10 Days – Poor Interface – Too Hard to Use – Many Operators – Only used for major exercises CELTS is Designed for Minimum Footprint – Stand Alone – Minimum/No Support – Simple to Train <4 Hours – Intuitive Interface – Simple to Use – Few Operators – Can be used at commander’s discretion

15. 15 5/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS - DIME Actions DIME  DiplomacyInformationMilitaryEconomic Strategic UN Resolution sanctioning armed force to effect regime change in targeted country U.S. President delivers speech Terrorist Conduct Out of Area Attack Enable Trade Sanctions against neighboring country to renounce nuclear weapons Operational Recall ambassador; issue diplomatic protest Issue Fatwa to engage entire country Station Troops in AOR/Targeted Country Loan Guarantees for Infrastructure Improvement Tactical National Elections Graffiti/ Counter-Graffiti Campaigns Various lethal/non-lethal operations conducted Micro-Loans Currently SupportedPartially SupportedNot Currently Supported

16. 16 5/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS - PMESII Actions PMESII  PoliticalMiltaryEconomicSocialInformationInfrastructure Strategic US Withdraws from AO due to lack of popular support Terrorists Conduct Out of Area Attack Enable Trade Sanctions against neighboring country to renounce nuclear weapons US announces Human Rights campaign to improve lot of women in the world U.S. President delivers speech Announce initiative to provide all schools in AOR with Internet access and computers Operational National Elections held in AOR Station Troops in AOR/Targete d Country Loan Guarantees for Infrastructur e Improvemen t USAID launches campaign to improve schools in targeted country Issue Fatwa to engage entire country Repair/ Construct Civil Infrastructure Tactical Local rebel leader captured Various lethal/non- lethal operations conducted Micro LoansMedical Assistance Graffiti/ Counter- Graffiti Campaigns Conduct Engineer Operations (Demining) Currently SupportedPartially SupportedNot Currently Supported

17. 17 5/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS – PMESII Focused PoliticalMilitaryEconomicSocialInformationInfrastructure AssassinationAir StrikeExtortionArrestInformation Engagement Sabotage Counter-GraffitiAttackMicro-loansAssassinationGraffitiSecurity CurfewCapture PrisonersPay ReparationsCurfewCounter-GraffitiVandalism ElectionsCordon & Knock/SearchFatwaPSYOPSCivil Engineering GraffitiEngineer OpsExtortionReporting Humanitarian AssistanceHoldingFood DistributionPublic Affairs Civil AffairsIED/Suicide OpsHumanitarian Assistance KidnapRecruit/ImpressmentIncite Riot Public AffairsPatrolKidnap Presidential AppealRKT/Mort ATKMicro-Loans Prisoner Hearing/TrialSniper OperationsPay Reparations Target AcquisitionReporting Suicide BombSecurityPrisoner Hearing/Trial

18. 185/11/2015 3:15 PM CELTS - Applicable to Operational Themes Major Combat Operations (-) Irregular Warfare (+) – Counterinsurgency (+) – Support to an Insurgency (+) – Unconventional Warfare (+) – Foreign Internal Defense (-) – Combating Terrorism (+) Peace Operations (+) – Peacekeeping (+) – Peace Enforcement (0) – Peacemaking (0) – Peace Building (+) – Conflict Prevention (+) Limited Intervention (0) – Non Combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO) (0) – Raid (-) – Strike (-) – Show of Force (-) – Foreign Humanitarian Assistance (+) – Consequence Management (+) – Enforcement of Sanctions (+) Peacetime Military Engagement (+) – Multinational Training/Exercises (0) – Joint Combined Exchange TNG (0) – State Partnership Program (0) – Military Support to Security Assistance (+) – Regional Defense Counterterrorism Programs (+) – Recovery Operations (+) – Nation Assistance (+) – Arms Control (0) (+)=High Applicability (0)=Some Applicability (-)=Minimum Applicability Based on FM3-0

19. 195/11/2015 3:15 PM Civil Infrastructure Initially model four systems – Sewage – Water – Electrical – Trash Disposal Ratings – Green Fully Functional – Amber Partially Functional – Red Minimally Functional – Black Not Functional May be – Attacked – Guarded – Sabotaged – Built – Repaired Contributes to Satisfaction Index – Green – Satisfied – Amber – Partially Satisfied – Red – Not Satisfied – Black - Unsatisfied Challenge: Move a satisfied, hostile population to support the friendly side Friendly APU with poor satisfaction.

20. 205/11/2015 3:15 PM Trust and Fear of Government If Friendly Actions counter the effects of Hostile Actions, and – If civilian casualties are low/or decline – Then the population trusts the government more, and – Friendly actions gain more influence. If Hostile Actions counter the effects of Friendly Actions, and – If civilian casualties are high/or increase – Then the population loses trusts in the government more, and – Hostile actions gain more influence. Hostile APU with poor satisfaction and fear of Government. Ratings – Green – Trust – Amber – Some Trust – Red – Mistrust – Black – No Trust

21. 215/11/2015 3:15 PM Non-Lethal Force Simulation Characteristics CELTSJNEMSEASIGS Based on Loper, Modeling Overview, Georgia Tech, 2007 Deterministic Stochastic Continuous Discrete AbstractPhysical Static Dynamic Spatial Point Individual Aggregate Qualitative Quantitative Causal Co relational Empirical Process

22. 225/11/2015 3:15 PM Wargame Generations and Definitions First – Abstract strategy games: Chess, Go Second – Military simulation games including attrition, movement, logistics (most modern wargames, even today) Third – System on system games incorporating human factors, enemy war economy as a system Fourth – Including unconventional war and the battle for hearts and minds.