Ground operations Air Operations Negotiations Current Situation
Israeli Objectives PoliticalMilitary Demonstrate Israel will Restore quiet Demilitarize Gaza Minimize civilian casualities Reduce Hamas miliary capabilities:esp. Rockets, tunnels Limit casualities/damage inside Israel
Hamas Objectives Political Military Break Isolation/siege Free prisoners Demonstrate strength/resolve Re-establish resistence credentials Inflict damage on Israel Miantain rocket firing Present robust defense agaisnt Israel ground incursion v Preserve forces
Strategy: Israel Use air and ground power to compel Hamas to accept quiet Damage Palestinian military forces and infrastructure with intense air and limites ground operations Conduct casualty sensitive operations Conduct media campaign to justify opeartions and limit damge from civilian casualities.
Strategy: Hamas Conduct sustained rocket firing into the depth of Israel Disrupt Israel civilian life/economy, inflict damage Achieve « image of victory »: attack on Israel twon, kill large number of soldiers, hostage taking Prevent any deep Israeli penetration of Gaza on the ground Attrite Israeli ground forces Conduct media campaign to paint Israel as agressor, limit Israeli military activity, end war with favorable terms.
The Rocket/Air War (1) Rocket forces and operations ForcesLaunch Operations Qassam Brigades PIJ PRC Joint operations(Qassam/PIJ) Sustained fire: 1500 plus rkts, avg about 120 rockets per day Population center Deep target Some military targets, esp close to Gaza border
The Rocket/Air War (2) Rockets vs Iron Dome Iron Dome capabilities: engage threat rockets only Iron Dome batteries: 10 deployes(3 during conflict) Intercepts: 300(in first ten days Accuracy/eefectiveness: claimed 86% of threat rockets
The Rocket/Air War (3) Israeli air Campaign Air vs the rocket system: production, movement, storage, launchers, launch units. Air vs the Hamas infrastructure: leadership, C2, weapons storage, combat forces, tunnels Itotal strikes: 2037 (first 10 days) Avg per day: 200 plus
The Ground War Engineering warfare Tunnels: 60 plus, infiltration, storage, smuggling, communications IEDs: one of Hamas most important defensive measures Tank vs anti-tank Close combat: direct fire engagements between troop Infiltration: into Israel(5 attemps(), inside Gaza, sig Israeli KI Fire Support: used by both side Suicide actions: a few
The Media War(1): Israel Themes Operations It’s a « terrorist » attack on Israeli civilians Criticism of operations not justifie Israel military operations are effective Israel has many supporters Info on Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians: rockets, infiltration Info on « precision » ops, media on Hamas use of civilians as human shields Release of info on Isreali Strike results: targets hit, damage, casualities Media releases on demonstrations, statements of support for Israel
The Media War(2): Hamas Themes Operations Israel aggression against civilians Hamas military operations are succeeding Israeli military operations are failing The whole world support Hams Use of Hamas and other media to show civilian casualties/manipulation of social media Claims of successful opeartions on Hamas and other Palestinian media Media coverage of CONTINUING Hams military ops, attention to Israeli military casualties Media coverage of anti-Israeli/pro- Hamas demonstrations
Lessons Learned: Israel Air power not enough against hardened enemy: Physical and mental Iron Dome does not completly solve the rocket problem Significant civilian casualities will occur regardless of the measures taken Incrementalism in ground ops gives the enemy an advantage Continuing challenge of urban combat Tunnels wil be a venue of combat Don’t neglect the ground forces
Lessons Learned: Hamas In a crisis, initiate the fighting Israel is heavily constrained by the civilian population in Gaza Srocket firing/mil ops can continue even under intense air attack Media war is crucial Validation of Hamas theory of combat
Game Changers Iron Dome: Negating hamas capabilities to cause casualities/damage inside Israel Hamas close combat capabilities: a significant shock with effects Tunnels System: creating strategic effects Protection of military infrastructure/forces against IDF Cross border penetration for strategic purposes
Near Term Developments Continued negotiations: Humanitarian ceasefire Ceasefire to negotiate arrangement Comprehensive arrangement Continued military operations. Israel and Hamas Expanded military operations: Israel?