Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Regional Skills Assessment 2016
West Region comprising East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire OK Glasgow

Contents Section 1: Introducing the Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Section 2: National Policy Context Section 3: The National Economic and Skills Context Section 4: The West Region in Context Section 5: Economic Performance of the West Region Section 6: The West Region Business Base Section 7: Where are the jobs in the West Region Section 8: The People of the West Region Section 9: The West Region Labour Market Section 10: Skills Challenges in the West Region Section 11: School numbers and destinations in the West Region Section 12: Skills Provision in the West Region Section 13: College Activity Section 14: University Provision Section 15: How are Skills and Jobs Likely to Change? Section 16: What are the key implications for the Region? Glasgow

1. Introducing the RSAs In this section:
What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? What is not covered by the RSAs? Other sources of useful information Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
Regional Skills Assessments provide a coherent evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Their purpose is to: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses. Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills. Support wider public and private investment propositions. Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
RSAs are developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. They cover demand for skills, supply of people and skills, skills provision and skills challenges. ….and include employment and GVA forecasts and trends to help identify future skills needs RSA cover: Regional performance and characteristics Trends over time How does the region compare to Scotland High level implications for skills planning Provide a data matrix to allow further analysis RSAs do not: Answer every question... however can be used alongside data matrix and other national and local intelligence Tell partners what they should do – although RSAs are designed to support making better informed decisions Glasgow

RSA data sources and coverage
The Regional Skills Assessments are underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on 117 social and economic indicators With data at 3 spatial levels: Regional Outcome Agreement areas; City Region Deal; Local Authority – with Scotland and GB/UK comparators where available The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). No primary research is involved. The data matrix is found here: The data matrix including a full user guide is available at: do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments Data Matrix sources include: Annual Population Survey Business Register Employment Survey UKCES Employer Skills Survey UK Business Counts Census Data Scottish Government Growth Sector datasets Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Partner data sources include: SDS Participation Measure data SDS Apprenticeship Family data SE and HIE data on Regional Selective Assistance and Account Managed businesses supported SLAED data on major infrastructure projects Glasgow

Other useful sources and publications
Other useful sources of current and forthcoming information are available. Scottish Government Labour Market Strategy Scottish Government Economic Strategy Sectoral and Regional Skills Investment Plans UKCES Employer Survey data Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Reports RBS Business Monitor Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index Glasgow

2: National Policy Context
In this section: Government Economic Strategy Labour Market Strategy Youth Employment Strategy Skills Planning Model Scotland’s Skills Agencies Enterprise and Skills Review Glasgow

Economic Strategy (1) Scotland’s Economic Strategy (2015) reaffirms the Scottish Government’s commitment to creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. It sets out an overarching framework for achieving the two mutually supportive goals of increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy and prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.

Labour Market Strategy (2)
Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy (2016) sets out for the first time how the labour market and wider social and economic policies interact to drive ambitions for inclusive growth. It provides a framework for the approach to the labour market, and describes the actions that will be taken to deliver the vision. Vision: “A strong labour market that drives inclusive, sustainable economic growth, characterised by growing, competitive businesses, high employment, a skilled population capable of meeting the needs of employers, and where fair work is central to improving the lives of individuals and their families.“ Five priorities: promoting the Fair Work Framework and encouraging responsible business; supporting employability and skills, so that all of our people can participate successfully in the labour market; investing in our people and our infrastructure; fostering innovation including workplace innovation which will help spur job creation; and promoting Scotland internationally to improve the competitiveness of our businesses.

Youth Employment (3) Developing the Young Workforce – Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy (2014) sets out how the Scottish Government will implement the recommendations from the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce, with headline target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021:

Skills Planning Model (4)
Regional Skills Assessments are at the heart of Scotland’s Skills Planning Model by providing an evidence base to understand demand for skills and to influence planning and investment to meet demand.

Scotland’s Skills Agencies (5)
Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council are the two core skills agencies for Scotland. Skills Development Scotland Making Skills Work for Scotland: Employers are better able to recruit the right people with the right skills at the right time Employers have high performing, highly productive, fair and equal workplaces People have the right skills and confidence to secure good work, progress in their careers and achieve their full potential Across all SDS services and programmes, there is increased equality of opportunity SDS is recognised as an employer of choice, an exemplar of fair work, and internationally recognised for excellence, innovation and customer focus Scottish Funding Council, Ambition 2025: Scotland - the Best Place in the World to Learn, to Educate, to Research and to Innovate “Our ambition is that Scotland will be the best place in the world to learn, to educate, to research, and to innovate……with colleges and universities making a major contribution to Scotland’s social, cultural and economic development.” Priority outcomes: High-quality learning and teaching World-leading research Greater innovation in the economy.

Enterprise & Skills Review (6)
Report on Phase One (2016) included a series of recommendations of relevance to skills investment planning “We will align the functions of our skills agencies to better join up how learning and skills are planned and provided to learners and employers.” “We will conduct a comprehensive review of the Learning Journey focused on sustained employment, with significantly enhanced use of labour market information in skills planning at its heart.” “We will review the effectiveness of our investment in learning and skills to ensure we have the right balance of provision across age groups and sectors and maximise its contribution to productivity and inclusive growth.” Next steps; Regional partnerships Digital Enterprise support

3: Scotland’s Economic and Skills Context
In this section: Economic Recession to Recovery Productivity Employment Non Standard Jobs Occupational Change In Work poverty Skills Challenges Scotland’s people Looking to the Future Glasgow

Economic Recession to Recovery (1)
The ‘great recession’ was the longest and deepest recession in the UK since the 1930s both in terms of depth of recession and time to recover GDP. The UK posted the slowest recovery of any advanced economy (aside from Italy and Greece) with recovery only taking hold after pause to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and consumer spending and investment. Scotland’s recession was shallower than the UK. Different sectors had different rates of recovery. Recession and Recovery in Scotland Output Source: Adapted from Fraser of Allander. March 2016 Glasgow

Productivity (2) Productivity in Scotland
Moderated growth in the international economy and Scotland and poor productivity growth presents challenging conditions for many sectors and industries. Productivity in Scotland UK trails G7 advanced economies on productivity by 18 percentage points. Scotland trails UK. UK trails US productivity across all sectors, especially manufacturing. There is evidence that the UK manufacturing productivity is in line with France/ Germany. But significant deterioration versus Europe in financial services and private service sector. Productivity improvements have been muted at a Scottish level over the last six years and have fallen behind wages growth. This suggests a weakening of Scotland’s competitive advantage. Fraser of Allander Institute argue that total factor productivity in Scotland is much lower than UK. In the absence of faster Scottish population growth, sustained economic growth will require raising competitiveness. Glasgow

Employment (3) Jobs in Scotland
Total employment in Scotland continued to fall until 2012, but has risen sharply since then. Total employment in was 1.5% greater than in 2009, although this is compared to a 7% increase in the UK. This has been dominated by private sector growth alongside a fall in public sector employment. Jobs in Scotland Employment Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Glasgow

Non Standard Jobs (4) The Rise of Non-Standard Work
Although Scotland is experiencing a growth in total employment since pre-recession times, a large part of this is due to the rise of ‘non standard jobs’ – part time, temporary and self employment. Of the new jobs created since the recovery, 50,000+ have been part time jobs, 35,000+ have been self-employed jobs and more than 13,000 have been temporary jobs. Only 9,000 or so have been full time jobs. The Rise of Non-Standard Work Employment change in Scotland and the UK, 2008 – 2015 Source: Labour Force Survey Glasgow

Occupational Change (5)
The occupational shift has seen a polarisation of employment with a strong bias towards higher skilled occupations. In effect, what we are seeing is an hour glass labour market. This represents significant challenges for progression. Occupational Shifts Source: 2011 Census, Labour Force Survey, Oxford Economics Glasgow

In-Work Poverty (6) Low Pay and in-work Poverty
Historically, being in work was seen as a way of escaping poverty, however more recently this is not the case for all. In 2014/15 , 260,000 people or 55% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, before housing costs (BHC). In 2014/15, 350,000 people or 58% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, after housing costs (AHC). In-work poverty can be a particular challenge for some groups – women, younger people, older workers, those with no qualifications, some ethnic groups, lone parents and people with disabilities. Low Pay and in-work Poverty In-work poverty (relative poverty AHC) in Scotland: 1998/99 to 2014/15 Number of individuals in poverty in households with at least one adult in employment Source:HBAI dataset, DWP Glasgow

Skills Challenges (7) Current Skills Challenges in Scotland (From Employer Skills Survey 2015) Steep rise in vacancies from 54,000 (2013) to 74,000 (2015) – reflecting higher demand for labour Proportion of establishments reporting Skills Shortage Vacancies in Scotland rose from 3% (2011) to 4% (2013) and 6% (2015) – in line with UK trends Proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps fell to 14% (2015) – same as at UK level Increasing levels of under-employment and under-utilisation of skills – 32% of establishments reported at least one member of staff with both skills and qualifications above the level required for the job Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties are likely to be a permanent feature of the Scottish labour market, particularly where experienced labour is required Along with under-employment and under-utilisation of skills, this will make improving productivity a challenging task Glasgow

Scotland’s People (8) People and Demographics
There have been strong population increases in Scotland, driven by in migration. The population is, however, an ageing one, with changing age demographics. This means there is considerable competition for young people. The majority of people in the workforce over the next 10 years are already working. People and Demographics Source: Mid Year Population Estimates Glasgow

The Future - Scotland’s People (9.1)
Over the period , the population of Scotland is forecast to grow by 9% to reach just under 5.8 million by The ageing of the population is forecast to continue however with the highest percentage of growth forecast in those age groups and 75+. Population Projections Source: General Register Office for Scotland Glasgow

The Future – GVA (9.2) Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland
GVA for Scotland is forecast to steadily increase over the period Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment (9.3)
Although employment is forecast to contract between , this will be followed by growth from In 2024, this would be equivalent to just under 47,500 additional jobs in the economy compared to levels. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment by Industry (9.4)
Not all industrial sectors will fare the same in terms of employment growth. It is forecast that there will be growth in Construction, Professional, scientific and technical activities and Administrative and Support Services whereas there will be a major decline in Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying and Public sector jobs. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Total Jobs Requirement (9.5)
Although understanding growth is important, a crucial part of skills planning is being able to understand the likely jobs that will arise as a result of both expansion demand (growth/contraction) and also replacement demand (churn in the labour market). Total jobs forecast to be filled in the period is 980,600 with most of these arising due to replacement demand and a very small proportion (c.26.5k) arising from growth. Looking Forward – Total Jobs requirement Total jobs requirement from Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Qualifications (9.6)
Based on the total jobs requirement for , the forecast for qualifications required shows that the vast majority of requirement is for people qualified at higher level - SCQF7 and above. Only a small proportion of opportunities will be available for people with no-low qualifications. Looking Forward - Qualifications Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

4. West Region in Context In this section:
The context within which a region operates plays a huge part in explaining a region’s performance. Historical factors, the composition of the industrial sector, geographic location, image and demographics are all at play. It is important to provide the regional context before presenting demand and skills supply data. In this section: West Region’s contribution to Scotland’s economy Key sectoral characteristics Key labour market performance Deprivation and living standards Earnings and Commuting Patterns The Glasgow City Region SIP/Investment Glasgow

West Region in Context (1)
The West region is a largely urban economy which generates 6% of the total output of Scotland as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. The region’s proportion of the Scotland total has been slipping back over time as the West region was hit hard by the recession. Although GVA has been increasing since 2012, the West region’s share of the Scotland total has remained at 6%. Total GVA in 2014 (latest data) was £7,107m in real prices. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy Total GVA in the region and the region’s share of total Scotland GVA Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The manufacturing sector remains important to the West region economy in terms of output, and at 14% this is the largest sector. Following this, it is the retail and public services sector that are the most important. There is a weaker professional, business and financial services sector in the West region than elsewhere. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Industrial Structure of the Region (GVA by sector) 2014 Total GVA (£m) at 2013 prices Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Glasgow

There were 166,600 employed in the West region in These are people employed in VAT or PAYE-registered businesses and so excludes those who are self-employed and work for smaller firms. Total employment has been increasing since 2013, and the increase in jobs in the year to 2015 was close to 10,000 new jobs, a strong performance, although this masks some key labour market changes and dynamics. See Section 7 on Where are the Jobs and Section 9 on the Labour Market. Key Labour Market Performance Employment change in the Region, Scotland and Great Britain Source: Business Register Employment Survey Glasgow

Despite the increases in job numbers, there remain considerable areas of deprivation within the region, and many suffer multiple disadvantages including exclusion from the labour market. Not all those living in the region are accessing newly created opportunities and the number of datazones in the most deprived 10% in Scotland remained unchanged from 2012 to For more information see Section 7 on the Labour Market. Average household incomes are much lower in Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire than in Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire. Deprivation and Living Standards Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: Scottish Household Survey Some 38% of households in Inverclyde have incomes less than £15,000 per annum. The Scotland average is 31% and in Renfrewshire this is 26%. Just 9% of West Dunbartonshire households have incomes above £40,000, half the Scotland proportion. Glasgow

The West region comprises East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire. Commuting into Glasgow City for employment is commonplace from all four local authority areas, although there are also flows between West region local authorities, including from Inverclyde to and from Renfrewshire. More information is at Section 8: The People of the West region. Commuting Flows According to the 2011 Census, Inverclyde was the most contained local labour market, with almost 70% working in their local authority area, followed by East Renfrewshire, with just over half doing so. However, there are strong flows within the West region, and between West and Glasgow regions. Source: 2011 Census Glasgow

The Glasgow City Region Skills Investment Plan (2016) Glasgow and Clyde Valley (now Glasgow City Region) City Deal: agreed among UK and Scottish Governments and City of Glasgow, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire local authorities (2014) Skills and Employment Working Group established also including SDS, DWP and colleges Consultancy support commissioned to develop Skills Investment Plan, including wide-ranging consultation and workshops Draft plan now agreed by Working Group, local authority chief executives, Cabinet and SDS Development of detailed Action Plan remitted to Working Group Glasgow

The Glasgow City Region Skills Investment Plan (2016) Glasgow

5. West Region: Economic Performance
The economic performance of the region is a critical driver of the demand for skills. Successful businesses need high levels of productivity, with skills an important component of this, although not the only one, particularly as business processes become more mechanised. Economic performance is measured using Gross Value Added per worker as the best measure of productivity. In this section: Total GVA and GVA growth rates GVA per employee (productivity) GVA per employee by sector Forecast GVA growth Glasgow

Economic Performance (1)
Total GVA in the West region has increased since 2012, strongly in 2013 and close to the Scotland average in The region experienced the negative effects of the recession severely in 2009, far more so than the Scotland fall, where output in the West region fell by 7%. It continued to fall further in 2010 and 2011, so that GVA in 2014 has not yet returned to pre-recession levels. Total GVA in West Region ( ) Source: Oxford Economics Total GVA £m at 2013 prices 2004 £18,850 6.3% 4.1% 2005 £20,035 -0.7% 3.7% 2006 £19,897 -0.4% 1.7% 2007 £19,824 1.3% 2008 £20,075 -2.0% -3.6% 2009 £19,676 -4.3% 2010 £18,837 2.0% 1.8% 2011 £19,208 -0.6% -0.2% 2012 £19,097 2.9% 2.6% 2013 £19,647 6.4% 4.3% 2014 £20,914 3.5% 2.8% Glasgow

GVA per worker is a proxy measure for productivity. It describes the region’s output in relation to the numbers in employment.. It is heavily influenced by the sector composition of the regional economy. Sectors such as manufacturing and higher value added services such as professional, scientific and technical services are typically more productive than others. Inverclyde and Renfrewshire have more of their economy in productive sectors, with GVA per worker increasing strongly in Inverclyde in particular GVA per worker is lower in East Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire. GVA Per Employee (Productivity)` Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

GVA output is forecast to grow in the West region, but at a rate slower than the Scotland average. Growth of 12.7% is forecast 2015 to 2024, compared to 15.9% for Scotland. GVA within the West region is therefore forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.3% between 2015 and 2024, 0.4 percentage points below the Scottish average of 1.7%. Uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU has dampened near-term growth prospects. GVA Output Growth to 2024 Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Sectorally, around 80% of GVA growth in West region will be provided by private services with the largest contributions from wholesale and retail trade, real estate and administrative and support services. Information and communication, a growing sector in the region, is expected to enjoy the fastest rate of growth (average 3.4% per year), followed closely by professional scientific and technical services (3.2% per year). Forecast Output Growth by Sector Glasgow

6. West Region: Business Base
The business base of the region is a strong determinant of the economic performance described in the previous section. Successful businesses need skilled and effective employees. This section presents an analysis of the business base by its industrial sector composition and other characteristics. In this section: Total number of businesses and growth rates Business base by sector Growth sector businesses Business base by size Business density Business birth, death and survival rates Self employment Glasgow

Business Base (1) There were 10,125 VAT and PAYE businesses in the West Region in The region’s business base grew faster than the Scotland average between 2014 and The growth rate from 2014 to 2015 was 8.3% compared to 7.3% for Scotland. From business numbers in the West Region had closely mirrored the Scotland annual rate of change. Total Number of Businesses and Growth Rates Number of businesses by year from 2010 – and growth rate comparators Source: UK Business Counts Change in number of business Glasgow

Business Base (2) Business Base by Sector, 2015
Almost one in five businesses in the West Region (19%) are in the professional, scientific and technical sector. This is a similar proportion to Scotland. 12% of businesses are in the construction sector, followed by 10% in the retail sector. The region also has a concentration arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (9% of the total), above the Scotland and UK proportions. At 7% of the total, business administration and support services is another important sector. Business Base by Sector, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (3) Growth Sectors`
The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy identifies six growth sectors, detailed below, where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage. A greater proportion of West Region growth sector businesses are in the following growth sectors than nationally Finance and Business Services (45% versus 36%), Creative Industries (23% versus 19%), and Sustainable Tourism (21% versus 19%), with far fewer in the Food and Drink sector (7% versus 22%). The definition of the growth sectors can be found at Appendix 1. Growth Sectors` Number of businesses by growth sector 2015 – and proportion of all growth sector businesses Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Growth sector businesses as a proportion of all business, 2015 Overall, 40% of all businesses are in Growth Sectors, compared to 46% nationally. At 38%, this is lowest in West Dunbartonshire/ Glasgow

Business Base (4) Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013
Financial and Business Services and the Sustainable Tourism sectors are the greatest contributors to Growth Sector GVA within the region, followed by the Creative Industries. The growing strength of the Financial and Business Services sector in the West Region is illustrated, where the sector represents 38% of all the growth sector GVA. Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013 Source: Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Total GVA (£m) at basic prices of Scottish Government Growth Sectors by sector, 2013 Some figures are supressed due to data being disclosive Growth sector total GVA as a % of all Growth Sector GVA, 2013 Glasgow

Business Base (5) Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015
The West Region has a similar profile of businesses by size band as the Scotland and UK averages. The majority of businesses are therefore micro-businesses with less than 10 employees, 88%. There are 40 large employers (of more than 250 employees). Business density in the West Region is 232 per 10,000 compared to 313 per 10,000 in Scotland, a low density. This is lowest in the two local authorities where out commuting is most common, East Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire. Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 Number of businesses by employee size band and by proportion of all businesses, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (6) Business survival rates in the West Region are higher than for Scotland and Great Britain. In all, 56% of businesses starting in 2010 had survived until 2014 in the region, compared to 48% across both Scotland and Great Britain. Business birth rates in the region have increased, but at 33 per 10,000 residents the rate remains well below the 40 per 10,000 across Scotland. Business Birth and Death Rates ( ) and Survival Rates ( ) Note: A business is deemed to have survived if still active 5 years after birth. Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-year Population Estimates Glasgow

Business Base (7) Self Employment
Self-employment rates in the West Region have consistently been below the Scotland rate and in 2015 stood at 9.7% compared to 10.8% across Scotland. Along with low business densities, this suggests a weak entrepreneurial culture in the region. Self-employment rates are the proportion of the resident working age (16-64) population who are self employed. Self Employment Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec each year Glasgow

7. West Region: Where are the Jobs?
Analysing the employment base of the region provides important information on the nature and functioning of the labour market. There have been significant occupational shifts in Scotland, reflected in changes in the West Region, where higher skilled occupation employment continues to increase. There has been jobs recovery since the recession, but not all of these have been good quality jobs. In this section: Total employment and rate of change Employment by sector and change over time Sectoral specialism Employment by occupation and change Non standard jobs – part time and non permanent employment Resident and workplace earnings Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (1) Total Employment and Change 2009-2015
There were 166,600 employees in employment in the West Region in These are jobs in VAT and PAYE registered businesses. Following a sharp fall in employment following the recession until 2012, the West Region has bounced back with employment growth at a faster rate than the Scotland and Great Britain averages. The increase in employment from 2014 to 2015 was 6%, whereas there was no growth across Scotland as a whole and 4% growth in Great Britain. Employment is now above the 2009 level. Total Employment and Change Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (2) Employment by sector provides important information on the industrial composition of the regional economy. Employment in the health sector comprises the largest share of employment, 19% of the total, above the Scotland average of 16%. Retail is the second largest employment sector, 12%. Production still accounts for 8%, 14,100 employees, however the business administration and support sector also comprises 8% of employment. Professional, scientific and technical services remain under-represented. Employment by Sector and proportion of Total Employment 2015 The largest increases in employment between 2014 and 2015 have been in health (+3,500), retail (+2,600 jobs), accommodation and food services (+2,200 jobs) and education (+1,100). There also 400 more professional, scientific and technical service sector jobs in 2015 than a year earlier. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (3) Sector Specialisms
Marrying employment growth trends by sector with the size and concentration of the sector in a region can provide important information on the dynamics of the labour market. Concentration of a sector is the extent to which employment in the sector is above (or below) sector concentration at the Scotland level. Sector Specialisms Sectors above the horizontal line are more concentrated in the region than in Scotland, those below the line less so. Sectors to the right of the vertical line are larger in employment terms than five years ago, to the left less so. Larger bubbles reflect higher sector employment. The large and concentrated health sector is illustrated right. Although smaller the public admin & defence and education sectors are concentrated and have grown in size in the last five years. The production sector is less concentrated and has declined in size in the last five years. Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (4) Employment by Occupation (2015)
The occupational profile of the region is important because occupation is often linked to skills requirements. In Scotland and the rest of Great Britain, there has been a steady and continuing shift to more employment in professional occupations. The West Region demonstrates this transition where now more than one in five residents work in professional occupations (21%), higher than the Scotland and GB averages. A further 14% work in associate professional and technical occupations. Skilled trades have fallen over the last 10 years in the region, now comprising 8% of al employment compared to 11% nationally. Caring and related jobs have increased. Employment by Occupation (2015) Change over time Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (5) Part-Time Employment, 2005-2015
Almost three in 10 (29%) of those in employment work part-time, higher than the proportion for Scotland and Great Britain. Jobs in a number of sectors well represented in the West Region have a higher share of part-time jobs, including retail. Overall, more of the jobs created in the economic recovery have been part-time jobs. There are also 4.4% in non-permanent employment, a lower percentage than nationally (5.4%). Nationally, 2.2% are employed on zero hours contracts. Part-Time Employment, Non-Permanent Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey Non-permanent employment is the proportion of all of those of working age in employment types such as fixed- term contracts, temporary agency, casual or seasonal work. The increase in non-permanent employment reflects the changing nature of employment. Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (6) Some sectors are typically better paid than others, and the industrial base of the region is often an indicator of average wage levels. The composition of the industrial base within a region also affects workplace pay levels. Average gross weekly workplace earnings in all parts of the West Region are below the Scotland average of £492, lowest in East Renfrewshire. By contrast, those resident in East Renfrewshire earn well above the Scottish average as workers commute to well paid jobs, largely in Glasgow City. Those in employment and living in West Dunbartonshire have the lowest average earnings in the region. Average Weekly Workplace and Residence-based Earnings, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Glasgow

8. West Region: Its People
The demographic characteristics of a region are extremely important in determining current and future demand for skills. The age profile of the population, the number of young people and elderly, the increasing proportion of retirees, are all contributory factors. The movement of people within a region, and into and out of a region, also affect the labour market and the supply of skills available to employers. In this section: Population growth Population profile Population projections Net migration Travel to work data Glasgow

People (1) Population Change over Time
The West Region’s population has remained relatively stable compared to growth in Scotland (5%) over the 10 years 2005 to 2015, with both lagging behind the rate of growth in Great Britain of 7.8%. The population of the West Region increased slower than the rate for Scotland over , +0.1% compared to +0.5%. Population Change over Time Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Year West Region Scotland 2005 435,520 5,110,200 2006 434,760 5,133,100 2007 435,180 5,170,000 2008 435,700 5,202,900 2009 435,750 5,231,900 2010 436,420 5,262,200 2011 437,340 5,299,900 2012 436,370 5,313,600 2013 435,560 5,327,700 2014 436,240 5,347,600 2015 436,590 5,373,000 Change 1,070 262,800 % Change 0% 5% Glasgow

People (2) Age Profile of the Region Population Change by Age 2005-15
The West Region has an older age profile than the Scotland average, with 19% (27,869) of residents aged 65+ compared to 18% in Scotland. The West Region has seen a much higher decline in the age band than Scotland (-26% versus -16%) but also lower growth of the 65+ age band (+15%, 10,700) than Scotland (+18%). Overall, the working age population of the West Region decreased by 4,800 over the 10 years to 2015. Age Profile of the Region Population Change by Age Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (3) Population Projections (2012-2037)
Source: National Records of Scotland The West Region’s population is projected to fall, compared to growth in Scotland as a whole to 2037 (- 4% compared to +8%). The working age population is also projected to fall much more sharply than nationally(-19% compared to - 4%). Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population is projected to become older. Year West Region Scotland 2014 434,913 5,346,120 2015 434,413 5,365,420 2016 433,961 5,385,719 2017 433,504 5,406,997 2018 433,095 5,429,012 2019 432,703 5,451,660 2020 432,321 5,474,391 2021 431,916 5,497,079 2022 431,486 5,519,588 2023 431,039 5,541,816 2024 430,565 5,563,670 2025 430,026 5,585,040 2026 429,419 5,605,814 2027 428,741 5,625,892 2028 427,999 5,645,150 2029 427,166 5,663,541 2030 426,267 5,681,121 2031 425,295 5,697,808 2032 424,237 5,713,523 2033 423,084 5,728,318 2034 421,874 5,742,297 2035 420,581 5,755,558 2036 419,253 5,768,217 2037 417,844 5,780,371 Change -17,069 434,251 % Change -4% 8% Glasgow

People (4) Net Migration
There are been considerable net migration into the West Region in recent years. Although net migration decreased to -791 in 2011/12, it has since risen sharply through to 2014/15, to 1,161 in 2014/15. The age band has seen significant net migration in the year 2014/2015 (515) with the age band seeing significant out-migration in the same year (361). Net Migration Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (5) Travel to Work (2011 Census)
There are high levels of out-commuting in the West Region, with 44% of employed residents working outwith the West region. Inverclyde is the most self-contained labour market, with 66% of those employed working locally. East Renfrewshire has the fewest working within their home area (18%) but the most commuting to other parts of the region (68%). Travel to Work (2011 Census) Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work. Also, location of employment for East Dunbartonshire refers to the Lanarkshire region; and East Renfrewshire refers to the West region Glasgow

Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number
People (6) At the time of the last Census, there was net out-commuting seen in each Local Authority which makes up the West Region, ranging from just below 300 in Renfrewshire to over 20,000 in East Renfrewshire. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Note: Not currently available in the data matrix Council area of workplace Total workplace population Lives and works in the area Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number Net flow of workers Works in the area but lives elsewhere in Scotland Works in the area but lives in the rest of UK Lives in the area but works elsewhere in Scotland Lives in the area but works in the rest of the UK Within Scotland From the rest of the UK Total East Renfrewshire 13,989 6,329 7,602 58 27,752 313 -20,150 -255 -20,405 Inverclyde 25,796 19,352 6,348 96 9,557 205 -3,209 -109 -3,318 Renfrewshire 67,521 35,523 31,277 721 31,764 507 -487 214 -273 West Dunbartonshire 26,374 15,685 10,567 122 17,724 210 -7,157 -88 -7,245 Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work. Also, location of employment for East Dunbartonshire refers to the Lanarkshire region; and East Renfrewshire refers to the West region Glasgow

9. West Region: Labour Market
The functioning of the labour market is influenced by labour market participation. Those unemployed or economically inactive will not be directly contributing to the economic success of the region, although their situation may be temporary, or indeed those inactive may be learning and studying and be a future contributor to the region. In this section: Economic activity Qualifications Participation Unemployment Glasgow

Labour Market (1) Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates
The West Region’s economic activity and inactivity rates have remained relatively stable between 2005 and 2015, staying at 76%-77% and 23%-24%, respectively. Scotland’s rates have also remained stable throughout, staying at 77-78% and 22-23% respectively. Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (2) Qualifications
The highest level qualifications of the resident working age population is a useful barometer of skills attainment levels. There remains a cohort in regional economies with no formal qualifications which used to be associated with older workers. Jobs increasingly require higher levels of qualification, including so-called entry level jobs. The working age population in the West Region is slightly more qualified than Scotland, with 44% qualified to SCQF Level 7-12, compared to 43% for Scotland. There remains a higher proportion of the region however with no qualifications, 10% compared to the Scotland average of 9%. Qualifications Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (3) Participation
The Participation Measure is a new measure which provides the ability to identify the status of the wider cohort – not just those who have left school. Participation of young people aged in the West Region was 92%, above the Scottish rate of 90%. Participation Source: Skills Development Scotland West Region Scotland Number % Total Cohort (16-19) 20,842 Participating (16-19) 19,130 92% 90% Education 16,078 77% 71% Employment 2,720 13% 17% Other Training & Development 332 2% Not Participating (16-19) 709 3% 4% Unemployed Seeking 480 Unemployed not Seeking 229 1% Unconfirmed Status (16-19) 1,003 5% 6% Glasgow

Labour Market (4) The way unemployment is measured is changing with the introduction of Universal Credit. As such, the data is regarded as ‘experimental’ and care is needed when comparing to previous data (all regions have recorded a fall in claimant count unemployment under the new measure). Unemployment – Claimant Count (includes Universal Credit) – experimental measure Source: Job Seekers Allowance Year West Region Scotland Great Britain May 2005 1,255 12,760 115,375 May 2006 1,080 13,265 141,970 May 2007 1,050 12,490 145,310 May 2008 625 7,825 99,735 May 2009 900 10,320 123,545 May 2010 1,630 20,870 252,170 May 2011 1,545 20,340 203,195 May 2012 3,335 35,725 378,480 May 2013 3,535 38,090 410,710 May 2014 2,740 29,470 310,865 May 2015 1,765 19,145 197,275 May 2016 1,675 16,515 158,520 Glasgow

10. West Region: Skills Challenges
Employers can have difficulties accessing the skills they need, skills deficiencies can be amongst those they are seeking to recruit and amongst those in their existing workforce. Skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) relate to the skills shortages amongst those being recruited, and skills gaps are a deficit within the existing workforce. The 2015 UKCES Employer Skills Survey provides timely data in relation to these and other issues. In this section: Skills shortages Skills gaps Recruitment activity Skills under-utilisation Glasgow

Skills Challenges (1) Skills Shortages
The UKCES Employer Survey 2015 data indicates that across the West Region skills shortage vacancies are slightly more prevalent than across Scotland at 0.9% of the total workforce, compared to 0.8% in Scotland as a whole. Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages account for 1.0% of the workforce, compared to 1.1% in Scotland as a whole. In all, 8% of establishments report at least one hard to fill vacancy in the West Region, in line with Scotland. Skills Shortages Source: UKCES West Region Scotland Hard to fill vacancies as % of workforce 1.0% 1.1% Skills shortage vacancies as % of workforce 0.9% 0.8% Glasgow

Skills Challenges(2) Skills Gaps
Skills gaps occur when employers think their employees lack some of the skills required to be fully proficient at their job. Around 3% of the workforce in the West Region have skills gaps compared to 5% nationally, employers in the West Region are somewhat less likely to report skills gaps than the Scottish average. Skills gaps are particularly prevalent in elementary staff in the West Region 66% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally) Skills Gaps Source: UKCES Glasgow

Skills Challenges (3) Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation
Overall, 47% of businesses in the West Region had recruited staff over the year prior to the 2015 UKCES survey, this was below the national average. The number of vacancies was however above the Scottish average with 21% of employers in the West Region having at least one vacancy. In addition, 35% of employers in the West Region had staff who were under-utilised, this was also above the national average. Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation Source: UKCES Glasgow

11. West Region: Schools Data
The number of young people at school and projected school roll numbers are important as those at school will form part of the future labour market. The destination of those leaving school also has an impact on the labour market, as young people might enter employment, education and training, or none of these after school. In this section: School roll numbers School roll projections School leaver destinations Glasgow

Schools Data (1) Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group
There were 27,187 secondary school pupils in the West Region in The region had slightly higher proportions of S5 (17% v 16%) and S6 (13% v 12%) pupils compared to Scotland as a whole. Scotland had higher proportions of S1 and S3 pupils than the West Region. Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census School Year West Region Scotland S1 4,748 50,813 S2 4,608 49,514 S3 4,677 50,197 S4 4,837 51,078 S5 4,653 45,817 S6 3,659 33,936 Total Pupils 27,187 281,355 Glasgow

Schools Data (2) Secondary School Roll Number Projections
Based on the latest available projections (2012), secondary school roll numbers are expected to decline by 4% to 2018 in the West Region. This is greater than the 2% drop in numbers anticipated for Scotland as a whole over the same period. Secondary School Roll Number Projections Source: Scottish Government Pupil Projections West Region Scotland 2014 27,200 282,800 2015 26,700 278,000 2016 26,300 275,300 2017 26,100 275,100 2018 26,200 277,900 Glasgow

Schools Data (3) School Leaver Destinations
Between 2013/14 and 2014/15, the West Region saw a one percentage point decrease in proportion of school leavers entering a positive destination, now in line with the Scottish average. The proportion of leavers entering Higher Education was higher in the West Region than across Scotland (42% v. 37%). In the West Region the proportion of leavers entering Higher Education however fell by seven percentage points between 2013/14 and 2014/15. School Leaver Destinations Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset 2013/14 2014/15 West Region Scotland Positive Destination 93% 92% Higher Education 49% 39% 42% 37% Further Education 21% 24% 22% 23% Training 1% 3% 2% Employment 25% 28% Voluntary Work 0% Activity Agreement Unemployed Seeking 6% 7% Unemployed Non-Seeking Unknown Glasgow

12. West Region: Skills Provision
There is a wide variety of skills and learning provision available which is designed to meet the future skills needs of the economy. Amongst this is the provision commissioned by Skills Development Scotland, notably via the Apprenticeship family of products (Modern Apprenticeships, Foundation Apprenticeships and Graduate Level Apprenticeships) and the Employability Fund and delivered by approved training providers including Colleges, Universities and Private training providers. In this section: Modern Apprenticeships by participant characteristic and framework grouping Foundation Apprenticeships Graduate Level Apprenticeships Employability Fund and Certificate of Work Readiness starts Glasgow

Skills Provision (1) MA Total Number of Starts
Modern Apprenticeships (MA) help employers to develop their workforce by training new and existing employees. For individuals, an MA lets them earn a wage while gaining a qualification. In 2015/16 the West Region had its highest number of MA starts since 2010/11 and accounted for 9% of all MA starts in Scotland. In 2015/16, the age of participants in the West Region was within 1% of the national trend with the majority coming from the age group (51%). MA Total Number of Starts MA Starts 2015/16, by Age Glasgow

Skills Provision (2) MA Starts by Gender 2010-2016
The gender split in MA uptake in the West Region was broadly similar to the national picture. The trend from 2010/11 to 2015/16 shows a proportionate increase in male participation in MAs and declining female representation. More information on gender split in different frameworks can be found in Skills Provision (4). In 2015/16 the uptake of MAs by disabled participants in the West Region was similar to the national picture. The representation of disabled individuals in MAs across Scotland remains low, 4% of individuals starting an MA had a disability however 19% of the working age population in Scotland have a disability. MA Starts by Gender MA Starts by Disability Glasgow

Skills Provision (3) MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16
The uptake of MAs in the West Region shows a less diverse ethnic mix than Scotland overall. Less than 1% of participants came from a Black Minority and Ethnic (BME) background compared to nearly 2% across the country. This also compares unfavourably with the overall BME working population in Scotland of 3.1% (APS 2014). MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16

Skills Provision (4) In 2015/16, the most popular MA Framework was Construction & Related (includes trades such as plumbing and joinery), it was also one of the most gender segregated groups with 99% male starts. Other male dominated groups include Other Manufacture (100%), Animal Care etc. (97%) and Transport & Logistics (96%). Proportionally females accounted for most MAs in Personal Services (92%) and Sport, Health and Social Care (80%). Modern Apprenticeship Starts by Framework Group and Gender Note: figures rounded to the nearest 5, figures less than 5 have suppressed. Percentages have been calculated on unrounded figures. Glasgow

Skills Provision (5) MA Achievement Rates 2010/11- 2015/16
MA achievement rates give the proportion of MA starts who completed their apprenticeship: gaining their target qualification and reaching work-based learning aims. Achievement rates in the West Region have been slightly (one percentage point) above the average rates for Scotland from 2010/11 to 2014/15. However, in the most recent data the West Region was one percentage point below the national average with 75% achievement rate. MA Achievement Rates 2010/ /16 Glasgow

Skills Provision (6) Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) were developed to help school pupils gain work experience and access work-based learning. S4 and S5 students spend time at college or with a local employer, and complete the FA alongside other subjects like National 5s and Highers. The qualification takes two years and can lead to employment or further study at college or university. FAs were piloted in some regions in 2014 and participation has grown over the past three years. The data shows uptake from the past two years and anticipated uptake for 2016/18. Foundation Apprenticeships, National Uptake 2014/ /18 Foundation Apprenticeships In 2016/18, the national uptake of FAs is expected to be over 300. In 2016/18 there are eight frameworks available, linked to six key sectors: Business Skills, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Financial Services, IT Hardware, IT Software, Social Services CYP, Social Services & Healthcare SDS aims to make FAs part of every secondary school’s offer by 2020. Glasgow

Skills Provision (7) Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development
Graduate Level Apprenticeships (GLAs) provide work-based learning opportunities up to Master’s degree level for employees. They have been created in partnership with industry and the further and higher education sector. Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development GLAs are currently available in: ICT/Digital: Software Development ICT/Digital: IT Management for Business Engineering: manufacturing and Design Civil Engineering Over the course of 2017 the intention is to expand the offer to include: Business and Management SCQF Level 10 Engineering (Instrumentation, Measurement and Control SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Cyber Security SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Digital Media SCQF Level 10) Life Sciences SCQF Level 10 Children and Young People SCQF Level 8 Glasgow

Skills Provision (8) The Employability Fund (EF) supports locally delivered services that are designed to encourage unemployed people to move towards work. SDS administers the EF on behalf of the Scottish Government*. The uptake of 2015/16 EF starts in the West Region was almost 10% of the all participants in Scotland. The gender split in the West Region was less balanced than nationally with 31% female participation compared to 36% across Scotland. Employability Fund Starts 2015/16, Total and by Gender *All data provided relates only to SDS funded activity. As other entities administer EF programme the data will not reflect total participation Glasgow

Skills Provision (9) The Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) addresses the challenge that young people have of gaining work experience and workplace skills prior to entering the labour market. The CWR provides young people with 190 hours of work experience and an assessment from an employer to certify that they have established workplace competencies. In 2015/16, 6% of individuals starting a CWR and 7% of employers involved in the scheme were located in the West Region. Certificate of Work Readiness 2015/16, Starts and Employers Glasgow

13. West Region: College Activity
Colleges provide a range of opportunities for all students, regardless of prior achievement, from access courses to degree level qualifications to meet national, regional and local economic needs. Qualifications include National 4 & 5s, NQ, HNC, HND and Degrees. Colleges also provide qualifications towards Foundation and Modern Apprenticeships. Data in this section relates to enrolments at West College Scotland and was provided by Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: College activity by age and gender Travel to study: location of students College activity by subject Gaelic language activity College activity: FE/HE Outcomes and destinations Glasgow

College Activity (1) 2015/16 college enrolments
In 2015/16, there were 25,925 enrolments at the West College Scotland, 9% of all enrolments across Scotland. Most enrolments were on part-time courses, similar to the trend nationally. Both regionally and nationally, the 25+ group was the largest overall in terms of enrolments. This age group accounted for 28% of full-time enrolments (24% nationally) and 55% of part-time enrolments (50% nationally). This suggests that college activity is characterised by older students on part-time courses and younger students on full-time courses. 2015/16 college enrolments 2015/16 college enrolments by age Note: Unless otherwise stated all data shows total college enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (2) 2015/16 college enrolments by gender
Nationally in 2015/16, females (51%) accounted for slightly more college enrolments than males (49%). This was also true of the West College Scotland, with a wider gender gap (62% female, 38% male). In terms of home area, the majority of students (55% of enrolments) came from within the region and 38% from elsewhere in Scotland showing the West region is an attractive educational destination. 2015/16 college enrolments by gender 2015/16 college enrolments by home area Glasgow

College Activity (3) College enrolments by SIMD
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) measure shows that in 2015/16 a higher proportion (23%) of enrolments at West College Scotland came from the 10% most deprived areas, compared to Scotland as a whole (15%). This reflects the fact that this region has significant areas of deprivation as seen in Section 4. Compared to colleges across Scotland, West College Scotland had proportionally fewer enrolments in Higher Education (HE) (13% vs. 18%) and more in Further Education (FE) (87% vs. 82%). College enrolments by SIMD College enrolments by HE/FE Note: Further Education (FE) refers to courses leading to qualifications up to SCQF level 7. Higher Education (HE) refers to courses at SCQF level 7 and above. Glasgow

College Activity (4) Of the 25,925 enrolments in West College Scotland, just over one fifth (22%) were in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects. The proportion of full-time and part-time enrolments that were in STEM subjects was similar, 21% and 22% respectively. Just over two fifths (41%) of the males enrolments in the college were for a STEM subject, whereas the figure was much lower for females (11%). Engineering/Technology had the greatest number of STEM enrolments in 2015/16 and accounted for 25% of all STEM enrolments. College enrolments - STEM subject and mode of study Ten largest STEM subject areas by total enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (5) Hairdressing, beauty and complementary therapies was the largest subject area in terms of full-time enrolments in the West region in 2015/16. The most gender segregated subject was also Hairdressing, beauty and comp. therapies (97% female) and the most gender equal subjects were Performing arts and Special programmes (both 54% male). Across Scotland, Care was the largest subject area by full-time enrolments. College enrolments by full-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (6) In 2015/16, Care had the greatest number of part-time enrolments in West College Scotland. This subject accounted for almost a third (32%) of all part-time enrolments in the region which reflects the fact the health sector is the largest employer in the region as seen in Section 7. Where are the Jobs. Gender imbalance was greatest in Engineering (96% male) and Hairdressing (92% female). College enrolments by part-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (7) Gaelic FE enrolments
Enrolment of students on Gaelic FE courses varies considerably across the country. The Highlands & Islands had the greatest uptake, with enrolments increasing by 14% from 2014/15 to 2015/16. Gaelic uptake across other regions is mixed, with nine regions, including the West region reporting no Gaelic college activity. Overall Gaelic enrolments across Scotland increased by 12% from 2014/15 to 2015/16, rising from 1,260 to 1,405. Gaelic FE enrolments Note: Data is institution rather than resident-based Glasgow

College Activity (8) 2015/16 FE student outcomes
In 2015/16, 64% of West region FE students successfully completed their course. This was lower than the 66% success rate achieved across Scotland. In terms of destination (2014/15), 14% of West College Scotland leavers entered employment and 81% of learners progressed onto additional education or training, including higher level study or Modern Apprenticeships. 2015/16 FE student outcomes 2014/15 college destinations Note: Completed partial success indicates that a student completed the course but did not gain the qualification. This also includes students who gained employment before finishing the course or transferred to another course. Glasgow

14. West Region: University Provision
Scotland has strong university provision with more world-class universities than any other country by head of population. There are five universities in Scotland that are ranked in the world’s top 200 (2015 Times Higher Education rankings). Scotland’s universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In the West region, the University of the West of Scotland (Paisley campus) provides educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region. Data in this section was provided by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: Study destination for region’s residents Students numbers within the region by gender, age and home area Subject choice Student graduation by level Student destinations by employment and industry Glasgow

University Provision (1)
In 2014/15, the number of students at the University of West of Scotland Paisley campus (UWS Paisley) was lower (5% decline) than the previous year and comprised 3% of the Scotland total. Across Scotland university student numbers grew by 1%. The gender split at UWS Paisley was 59% female and 41% male uptake, which was similar to the national trend. 2013/14-14/15 total student number 2014/15 HEI students, by gender Note: Unless otherwise stated, data on this and subsequent slides is institution, not resident based and refers to university campuses located in Scotland and excludes study with the Open University Scotland, campuses outside of Scotland and incomplete records. Glasgow

In 2014/15, the largest student cohort by age at UWS Paisley were those in the 25+ age range. This was in contrast to the national picture, where year olds were largest group. The largest proportion of students attending UWS Paisley came from elsewhere in Scotland (60%). There was a lower proportion of students from elsewhere in the UK and outside the UK (2% and 9%) than the national trend (13% and 24%). 2014/15 university students, by age 2014/15 university students, by home area Glasgow

In 2014/15, 13,915 residents of the West region studied at a number of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) across Scotland. The top institution attended by West region residents was the local institution, the University of the West of Scotland. Universities in nearby Glasgow were also a popular choice for West region residents, as was the Open University in Scotland. Top 5 universities attended by West Region residents 2014/15

In 2014/15 at UWS Paisley, the most popular subject was Subjects allied to Medicine (22% of total). Other popular subjects were Business and Administrative studies (21%) and Computer Sciences (15%), all of which had a greater uptake than the national average. The uptake of computer science may reflect the region’s strong performance in Creative Industries including digital as seen in Section 6. Business Base. 2014/15 total enrolment of students at HE Institutions, by subject Glasgow

In 2014/15, 86% of students who studied at UWS Paisley, graduated with a first degree. The remaining 14% completed a postgraduate degree This differed to the national trend with 65% of all Scottish graduates completing a first degree and 35% completing a postgraduate course. 2014/15 university graduates by level of study Glasgow

Data on this and the following two slides was provided by the HESA Graduate Destinations Survey which surveys a sample of Higher Education Institutes graduates six months after leaving university. In 2014/15, the majority of graduates from UWS Paisley went on to full-time work (59%), which was slightly lower than the percentage nationally (61%). However, combined with part-time work, 74% entered work which was higher than the national average 72%. Of those surveyed 6% were unemployed, which was slightly above the national trend (5%). 2014/15 university graduates by employment status Glasgow

In 2014/15, UWS Paisley graduates went on to work in a range of occupations. The largest percentage (34%) were engaged as professionals with the lowest percentage (1%) engaged as Process, plant and machine operatives. 2014/15 university graduates by occupation Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from UWS Paisley worked in a wide range of industries. The largest group entered the Health and Social Work sector ( 24%) followed by the Wholesale and Retail Trade sector (10%). This reflects the regional employment situation as shown in Section 7. Where are the Jobs. 2014/15 university graduates, employment by industry Glasgow

15. West Region: Jobs and skills changes
This section will outline forecasted changes in employment from 2015 to 2024, and the nature of changing demand for qualifications in specific occupational areas. It will also consider longer term changes in the labour market and future expansion and replacement employment demand. In this section: Forecasts demand for jobs and how these may change Changing occupational and qualification demand Long-term changes in the labour market Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to remain relatively flat over , average annual growth of 0.2% is expected for Scotland as a whole. This equates to a loss of 300 jobs in the area by Sectorally, administrative & support activities are expected to create over 1,300 new jobs in the area by Both the construction and professional, scientific & technical activities are also expected to experience significant growth, with gains of 900 and 600 jobs respectively. By contrast, public services will experience a fall of 1,500 jobs by The manufacturing sector is also expected to contract in employment terms, with a fall of 1,400 jobs over the forecast period. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Total Employment Growth West Region Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

Overall employment by occupation is expected to contract over the forecast. Employment losses in public services are expected to reduce the number of workers within administrative occupations (500 people) and, within professional occupations, teaching & research profs, resulting in a contraction (500 people). There is modest growth expected in skilled trades, elementary and caring, leisure and other service occupations (100 people). Managers, directors & senior officials is forecast to remain unchanged over the period. Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand West Region Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics ‘000s Glasgow

The majority of openings in the West Region, created over the period to 2024, will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for over 51% of the 70,200 openings expected between 2016 and Of this, over 6% will require postgraduate level qualifications at SCQF level The remaining opportunities available will mainly be for individuals qualified to level 5/6, equivalent to 36% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level. Forecast employment change by Qualification ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Replacement demand will result in over 71,200 openings within the West Region over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to be negative, with a fall of 900 between However together with replacement demand, will result in 70,300 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional and elementary occupations, which are expected to experience a rise of 14,800 and 13,300 workers respectively, underpinned by high levels of replacement demand. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

16. West Region: What are the key implications?
The Regional Skills Assessments provide the national policy context, the national economic picture and trends and the regional position. The regional perspective covers in some depth the demand for skills, current and forecast, as well as skills activity in place to meet these needs. There is a wide range of data, with further data available in the accompanying data matrix. This final section draws out some of the key implications for improving the performance of labour markets. These are not solutions for partners, but rather implications from the analysis upon which skills investment planning decisions can be made. In this section: Review of the demand for skills Review of current skills activity to meet need Key implications for skills investment planning and recommended focus for action Glasgow

West region: Headline Summary (1)
. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics The West region has bounced back strongly from post-downturn job losses that had continued to Jobs growth in 2015 was 6%, at a time of no job increases across Scotland. This was almost 10,000 new jobs in 2015. Growth has however been concentrated in lower value added services and the public sector. Job increases in 2015 were strongest in health (+3,500), retail (+2,600), accommodation and food services (+2,200) and education (+1,200). A number of higher value added sectors - including professional, scientific and technical services (+400) and finance and insurance (+400) have also seen job increases, although on a more modest scale. Employment in information and communications, and the regionally important business administration sector fell slightly. Within the region, it is Renfrewshire that has driven recent jobs growth, although there were also modest increases in East Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire. The number of jobs actually contacted slightly Inverclyde Glasgow

. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued) The changing dynamic in West region is evident in the numbers employed in professional occupations. More than 1 in 5 (21%) are now in professional occupations, above Scotland and Great Britain averages. Growth has been fourfold over the last 10 years, again a faster rate of increase than elsewhere. Not all those in professional occupations work within the West region, and out-commuting to Glasgow is a feature of the region’s labour market. Seven in 10 out-commute from East Renfrewshire, and in no part of the region is the proportion less than 40%, except for Inverclyde, which is by far the most self-contained labour market within the region. Neither is the region homogenous in terms of income, and there remain areas of relative deprivation. Almost three in 10 households in East Renfrewshire have incomes above £40,000, and this is less than one in 10 in West Dunbartonshire, where there are concentrations of relative deprivation, as there are in Inverclyde and parts of Renfrewshire. The new measure of unemployment including Universal Claimants has shown falling claimants, and this has been the case nationally. Slightly more are qualified to SCQF 7-12, when demand for these qualifications continues to increase, yet one in 10 still have no qualifications, above the Scotland average. Glasgow

. Skills Challenges The population of the region has not increased over the last 10 years, at a time of Scotland and UK growth, and is forecast to decline. The working age population is expected to fall by almost 20%. This will have implications for employers. The 2015 skills survey indicates that the number employers reporting vacancies, and skill shortage vacancies, are now just above average, reflecting the increase in employment and competition for labour. Encouragingly, fewer employers also report skills gaps within their workforce, and this is the case across most occupations. The exception is elementary occupations, where skills gaps are more pronounced than nationally. Skills under-utilization is also slightly above average in the West region. Glasgow

. Skills Activity to Meet Current and Future Demand Work-based learning is critical to meeting skills development needs. There were 2,235 MA Starts in 2015/2016, a good increase on the previous year, and their highest levels to date. The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, health & social care (with sport), administration & related, hospitality & tourism and retail & customer services. Engineering & energy is sixth, reflecting that the production sector still employs 14,000 in the region. The growth of accommodation and food services is increasing the demand for hospitality & tourism MAs. Other services including ICT professionals and financial services are modestly represented given their importance to Scotland’s economy. There is a continuing gender imbalance in many MA frameworks and MAs are still not commonplace in some sectors such as the Creative Industries. Glasgow

. Future Trends There are expected to be just 100 more jobs in the region by However, sectorally, there is employment growth expected in administrative & support services (+1,300), construction (+1,200) and professional, scientific & technical services (+900). ICT/Digital skills will be required across a range of sectors. Public sector (-2,500) and manufacturing employment is forecast to decline (-1,500). Replacement demand is expected to generate more than 70,000 openings to Half of these will be SCQF level 7 and above and almost 90% will be level 5 and above. This reaffirms the need for a strong skills base. The greatest number of openings will be in professional and elementary occupations (more than 40%), as well as sales, care (social and child care), leisure and other services occupations. Glasgow

West region: Key Implications (1)
. Recommended Areas of Focus Continue to increasing the quality of jobs. There is a need to consolidate recent modest increases in professional and financial sector jobs in the region. Most of the recent jobs growth has been in services and the public sector. Continuing to Increase the number of jobs in the region. Recent jobs increases have been largely in Renfrewshire, benefiting from neighbouring Glasgow’s economic recovery. There is a need to broaden jobs growth geographically across the region, particularly into Inverclyde. A need to increase the pool of labour and to reduce inequality. Although the number of datazones in the most deprived 10% in Scotland has stabilised, there remain concentrations of relative deprivation in the region, and there is a need to ensure all are able to access the new jobs and opportunities being created. Longer-term, the forecast decline in the working age population may also provide challenges for employers in the region. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. There will continue to be extreme competitive pressures in manufacturing, as well as services, that demand high levels of business innovation and a skilled workforce. Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). There are key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where growth and replacement demand is strong, including the important business administration sector and the care sector. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors. Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). There is a need to meet the demand from employers for higher level skills, including the professional services sector where there will be both expansion and replacement employer demand. This requires a continuing strengthening of the skills base and in-work progression. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus A need for skills supply to match demand. There has been strong growth in the accommodation and food services sector and increasing demand for strong hospitality skills. Current provision should be adapted to reflect demand in specific sectors. A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes a feature of this. Glasgow

Appendix: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Click here to go back to the main presentation: Where are the Jobs (3) - Sector Specialisms

Regional Skills Assessment 2016

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Regional Skills Assessment 2016

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