Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Regional Skills Assessment 2016
Edinburgh, East and Midlothian comprising Edinburgh, East Lothian and Midlothian OK Glasgow

Contents Section 1: Introducing the Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Section 2: National Policy Context Section 3: The National Economic and Skills Context Section 4: Edinburgh, East and Midlothian in Context Section 5: Economic Performance of Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Section 6: The Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Business Base Section 7: Where are the jobs in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Section 8: The People of Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Section 9: The Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Labour Market Section 10: Skills Challenges in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Section 11: Schools numbers and destinations in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Section 12: Skills Provision in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Section13: College Activity Section14: University Provision Section 15: How are Skills and Jobs Likely to Change? Section 16: What are the key implications for the Region? Glasgow

1. Introducing the RSAs In this section:
What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? What is not covered by the RSAs? Other sources of useful information Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
Regional Skills Assessments provide a coherent evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Their purpose is to: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses. Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills. Support wider public and private investment propositions. Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
RSAs are developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. They cover demand for skills, supply of people and skills, skills provision and skills challenges. ….and include employment and GVA forecasts and trends to help identify future skills needs RSA cover: Regional performance and characteristics Trends over time How does the region compare to Scotland High level implications for skills planning Provide a data matrix to allow further analysis RSAs do not: Answer every question... however can be used alongside data matrix and other national and local intelligence Tell partners what they should do – although RSAs are designed to support making better informed decisions Glasgow

RSA data sources and coverage
The Regional Skills Assessments are underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on 117 social and economic indicators With data at 3 spatial levels: Regional Outcome Agreement areas; City Region Deal; Local Authority – with Scotland and GB/UK comparators where available The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). No primary research is involved. The data matrix is found here: The data matrix including a full user guide is available at: do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments Data Matrix sources include: Annual Population Survey Business Register Employment Survey UKCES Employer Skills Survey UK Business Counts Census Data Scottish Government Growth Sector datasets Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Partner data sources include: SDS Participation Measure data SDS Apprenticeship Family data SE and HIE data on Regional Selective Assistance and Account Managed businesses supported SLAED data on major infrastructure projects Glasgow

Other useful sources and publications
Other useful sources of current and forthcoming information are available. Scottish Government Labour Market Strategy Scottish Government Economic Strategy Sectoral and Regional Skills Investment Plans UKCES Employer Survey data Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Reports RBS Business Monitor Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index Glasgow

2: National Policy Context
In this section: Government Economic Strategy Labour Market Strategy Youth Employment Strategy Skills Planning Model Scotland’s Skills Agencies Enterprise and Skills Review Glasgow

Economic Strategy (1) Scotland’s Economic Strategy (2015) reaffirms the Scottish Government’s commitment to creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. It sets out an overarching framework for achieving the two mutually supportive goals of increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy and prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.

Labour Market Strategy (2)
Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy (2016) sets out for the first time how the labour market and wider social and economic policies interact to drive ambitions for inclusive growth. It provides a framework for the approach to the labour market, and describes the actions that will be taken to deliver the vision. Vision: “A strong labour market that drives inclusive, sustainable economic growth, characterised by growing, competitive businesses, high employment, a skilled population capable of meeting the needs of employers, and where fair work is central to improving the lives of individuals and their families.“ Five priorities: promoting the Fair Work Framework and encouraging responsible business; supporting employability and skills, so that all of our people can participate successfully in the labour market; investing in our people and our infrastructure; fostering innovation including workplace innovation which will help spur job creation; and promoting Scotland internationally to improve the competitiveness of our businesses.

Youth Employment (3) Developing the Young Workforce – Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy (2014) sets out how the Scottish Government will implement the recommendations from the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce, with headline target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021:

Skills Planning Model (4)
Regional Skills Assessments are at the heart of Scotland’s Skills Planning Model by providing an evidence base to understand demand for skills and to influence planning and investment to meet demand.

Scotland’s Skills Agencies (5)
Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council are the two core skills agencies for Scotland. Skills Development Scotland Making Skills Work for Scotland: Employers are better able to recruit the right people with the right skills at the right time Employers have high performing, highly productive, fair and equal workplaces People have the right skills and confidence to secure good work, progress in their careers and achieve their full potential Across all SDS services and programmes, there is increased equality of opportunity SDS is recognised as an employer of choice, an exemplar of fair work, and internationally recognised for excellence, innovation and customer focus Scottish Funding Council, Ambition 2025: Scotland - the Best Place in the World to Learn, to Educate, to Research and to Innovate “Our ambition is that Scotland will be the best place in the world to learn, to educate, to research, and to innovate……with colleges and universities making a major contribution to Scotland’s social, cultural and economic development.” Priority outcomes: High-quality learning and teaching World-leading research Greater innovation in the economy.

Enterprise & Skills Review (6)
Report on Phase One (2016) included a series of recommendations of relevance to skills investment planning “We will align the functions of our skills agencies to better join up how learning and skills are planned and provided to learners and employers.” “We will conduct a comprehensive review of the Learning Journey focused on sustained employment, with significantly enhanced use of labour market information in skills planning at its heart.” “We will review the effectiveness of our investment in learning and skills to ensure we have the right balance of provision across age groups and sectors and maximise its contribution to productivity and inclusive growth.” Next steps; Regional partnerships Digital Enterprise support

3: Scotland’s Economic and Skills Context
In this section: Economic Recession to Recovery Productivity Employment Non Standard Jobs Occupational Change In Work poverty Skills Challenges Scotland’s people Looking to the Future Glasgow

Economic Recession to Recovery (1)
The ‘great recession’ in 2008 was the longest , in terms of time taken to recover GDP, and deepest recession in the UK since the 1930s. The UK posted the slowest recovery of any advanced economy (aside from Italy and Greece) with recovery only taking hold after a pause to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and consumer spending and investment. Scotland’s recession was shallower than the UK. Recession and Recovery in Scotland Output Source: Adapted from Fraser of Allander. March 2016 Glasgow

Productivity (2) Productivity in Scotland
Moderated growth in the international economy and Scotland and poor productivity growth presents challenging conditions for many sectors and industries. Productivity in Scotland UK trails G7 advanced economies on productivity by 18 percentage points. Scotland trails UK. UK trails US productivity across all sectors, especially manufacturing. There is evidence that the UK manufacturing productivity in line with France/ Germany. But significant deterioration versus Europe in financial services and private service sector. Productivity improvements have been muted at a Scottish level over the last six years and have fallen behind wages growth. This suggests a weakening of Scotland’s competitive advantage. Fraser of Allander Institute argue that total factor productivity in Scotland is much lower than UK. In the absence of faster Scottish population growth, sustained economic growth will require raising competitiveness. Glasgow

Employment (3) Jobs in Scotland
Total employment in Scotland continued to fall until 2012, but has risen sharply since then. Total employment in was 1.5% greater than in 2009, although this is compared to a 7% increase in the UK. This has been dominated by private sector growth alongside a fall in public sector employment. Jobs in Scotland Employment Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Glasgow

Non Standard Jobs (4) The Rise of Non-Standard Work
Although Scotland is experiencing a growth in total employment since pre-recession times, a large part of this is due to the rise of ‘non standard jobs’ – part time, temporary and self employment. Of the new jobs created since the recovery, 50,000+ have been part time jobs, 35,000+ have been self-employed jobs and more than 13,000+ have been temporary jobs. Only 9,000 or so have been full time jobs. The Rise of Non-Standard Work Employment change in Scotland and the UK, 2008 – 2015 Source: Labour Force Survey Glasgow

Occupational Change (5)
The occupational shift has seen a polarisation of employment with a strong bias towards higher skilled occupations. In effect, what we are seeing is an hour glass labour market. This represents significant challenges for progression. Occupational Shifts Source: 2011 Census, Labour Force Survey, Oxford Economics Glasgow

In-Work Poverty (6) Low Pay and in-work Poverty
Historically, being in work was seen as a way of escaping poverty, however more recently this is not the case for all. In 2014/15 , 260,000 people or 55% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, before housing costs (BHC). In 2014/15, 350,000 people or 58% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, after housing costs (AHC). In-work poverty can be a particular challenge for some groups – women, younger people, older workers, those with no qualifications, some ethnic groups, lone parents and people with disabilities. Low Pay and in-work Poverty In-work poverty (relative poverty AHC) in Scotland: 1998/99 to 2014/15 Number of individuals in poverty in households with at least one adult in employment Source:HBAI dataset, DWP Glasgow

Skills Challenges (7) Current Skills Challenges in Scotland (From Employer Skills Survey 2015) Steep rise in vacancies from 54,000 (2013) to 74,000 (2015) – reflecting higher demand for labour. Proportion of establishments reporting Skills Shortage Vacancies in Scotland rose from 3% (2011) to 4% (2013) and 6% (2015) – in line with UK trends. Proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps fell to 14% (2015) – same as at UK level. Increasing levels of under-employment and under-utilisation of skills – 32% of establishments reported at least one member of staff with both skills and qualifications above the level required for the job. Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties are likely to be a permanent feature of the Scottish labour market, particularly where experienced labour is required. Along with under-employment and under-utilisation of skills, this will make improving productivity a challenging task. Glasgow

Scotland’s People (8) People and Demographics
There have been strong population increases in Scotland, driven by in migration. The population is, however, an ageing one, with changing age demographics. This means there is considerable competition for young people. The majority of people in the workforce over the next 10 years are already working. People and Demographics Source: Mid Year Population Estimates Glasgow

The Future - Scotland’s People (9.1)
Over the period , the population of Scotland is forecast to grow by 9% to reach just under 5.8 million by The ageing of the population is forecast to continue however with the highest percentage of growth forecast in those age groups and 75+. Population Projections Source: General Register Office for Scotland Glasgow

The Future – GVA (9.2) Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland
GVA for Scotland is forecast to steadily increase over the period Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment (9.3)
Although employment is forecast to contract between , this will be followed by growth from In 2024, this would be equivalent to just under 47,500 additional jobs in the economy compared to levels. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment by Industry (9.4)
Not all industrial sectors will fare the same in terms of employment growth. It is forecast that there will be growth in Construction, Professional, scientific and technical activities and Administrative and Support Services whereas there will be a major decline in Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying and Public sector jobs. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Total Jobs Requirement (9.5)
Although understanding growth is important, a crucial part of skills planning is being able to understand the likely jobs that will arise as a result of both expansion demand (growth/contraction) and also replacement demand (churn in the labour market). Total jobs forecast to be filled in the period is 980,600 with most of these arising due to replacement demand and a very small proportion (c.26.5k) arising from growth. Looking Forward – Total Jobs requirement Total jobs requirement from Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Qualifications (9.6)
Based on the total jobs requirement for , the forecast for qualifications required shows that the vast majority of requirement is for people qualified at higher level - SCQF7 and above. Only a small proportion of opportunities will be available for people with no-low qualifications. Looking Forward - Qualifications Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

4. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian in Context
The context within which a region operates plays a huge part in explaining a region’s performance. Historical factors, the composition of the industrial sector, geographic location, image and demographics are all at play. It is important to provide the regional context before presenting demand and skills supply data. In this section: Edinburgh, East and Midlothian’s contribution to Scotland’s economy Key sectoral characteristics Key labour market performance Deprivation and living standards Earnings and Commuting Patterns Glasgow

Edinburgh, East and Midlothian in Context (1)
The Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region is a successful, largely urban economy which generates around 17% of the total output of Scotland as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. The region incorporates the capital city Edinburgh and is a strong administrative an financial centre. It’s proportion of total GVA in Scotland dropped between 2012 and 2014 although the region’s GVA continues to increase strongly. Total GVA in 2014 (latest data) was £19, 946m in real (2013) prices. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy Total GVA in the region and the region’s share of total Scotland GVA Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The strength of the financial services sector is clearly apparent, accounting for 18% of the region’s output, far higher than the 6% proportion for Scotland. Public services, real estate and retail are important contributors, as are professional, scientific and technical services and information an communications, both well represented in the region. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Industrial Structure of the Region (GVA by sector) 2014 Total GVA (£m) at 2013 prices Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Glasgow

There were 381,700 employed in the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region in 2015, indicating the region is an important employment centre. These are people employed in VAT or PAYE-registered businesses and so excludes those who are self-employed and work for smaller firms. Total employment has been increasing over the five years since 2010 as the regional economy recovers, and since 2013 this has been above the Scotland rate, although not all participate in the region’s success. See Section 7 on Where are the Jobs and Section 9 on the Labour Market. Key Labour Market Performance Employment change in the Region, Scotland and Great Britain Source: Business Register Employment Survey Glasgow

Although the number of the region’s datazones in the most deprived 10% in Scotland has fallen since 2006, there remain concentrations of deprivation in the region where people are excluded from the labour market and socially. Although the number of jobs is increasing in the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region, not all those living in the region are accessing these opportunities. For more information see Section 7 on the Labour Market. Average household earnings in the region are above average, particularly in the City of Edinburgh, but also in East and Midlothian. Deprivation and Living Standards Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: Scottish Household Survey The City of Edinburgh has the highest proportion of household with incomes above £40,000 per annum and all parts of the region have a greater proportion than average earning more than £30,000 per annum. Glasgow

The region comprises the City of Edinburgh, East Lothian and Midlothian. Commuting into the City of Edinburgh is commonplace for those in East and Midlothian. Very few work outside of the region. More information is at Section 8: The People of the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region. Commuting Flows More than half of those in work in Midlothian travel to the City of Edinburgh for work, and almost as many do the same from Midlothian. More than 80% of those at work living in the City of Edinburgh work within the City. Source: 2011 Census Glasgow

5. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian: Economic Performance
The economic performance of the region is a critical driver of the demand for skills. Successful businesses need high levels of productivity, with skills an important component of this, although not the only one, particularly as business processes become more mechanised. Economic performance is measured using Gross Value Added per worker as the best measure of productivity. In this section: Total GVA and GVA growth rates GVA per employee (productivity) GVA per employee by sector Forecast GVA growth Glasgow

Economic Performance (1)
Total GVA in the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region has increased since 2010, although the growth rate has been uneven. Growth between 2013 and 2014 was stronger than the previous three years, at 3.5%, although this was not as strong as GVA growth for Scotland which was 4.3%. Nonetheless, the region has continued to recover from the negative effects of the recession which resulted in sharp falls in GVA in 2008 and 2010. Total GVA in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian ( ) Source: Oxford Economics Total GVA £m at 2013 prices 2004 £18,850 6.3% 4.1% 2005 £20,035 -0.7% 3.7% 2006 £19,897 -0.4% 1.7% 2007 £19,824 1.3% 2008 £20,075 -2.0% -3.6% 2009 £19,676 -4.3% 2010 £18,837 2.0% 1.8% 2011 £19,208 -0.6% -0.2% 2012 £19,097 2.9% 2.6% 2013 £19,647 6.4% 4.3% 2014 £20,914 3.5% 2.8% Glasgow

GVA per worker is a proxy measure for productivity. It describes the region’s output in relation to the numbers in employment. This is heavily influenced by the sector composition of the regional economy. Sectors such as financial services and the professional, scientific and technical sector are more productive than other service sectors such as retail. GVA per worker is therefore highest in the City of Edinburgh, given the financial services sector and public services. Productivity in the City of Edinburgh has fallen since 2011 and maintaining productivity levels is a challenge for the region. GVA Per Employee (Productivity)` Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

GVA output is forecast to continue to grow in the region, and to grow strongly at a rate faster than the Scotland average. Growth of 21.0% is forecast 2015 to 2024, compared to 15.9% for Scotland. Overall, GVA is forecast to increase at an average 2.1% per year over the period, 0.4 percentage points above the average for Scotland as a whole. However, uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU has dampened near-term growth prospects. GVA Output Growth to 2024 Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The region’s GVA growth of recent years is expected to continue. More than 80% of GVA growth in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian will be provided by private services with the largest contributions continuing from financial and insurance activities and professional scientific and technical services. Information and communications are expected to enjoy the fastest rate of growth (3.8% per year), followed closely by professional scientific and technical services (3.6% per year) and administrative and support services (3.4% per year). Forecast Output Growth by Sector Glasgow

6. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian: Business Base
The business base of the region is a strong determinant of the economic performance described in the previous section. Successful businesses need skilled and effective employees. This section presents an analysis of the business base by its industrial sector composition and other characteristics. In this section: Total number of businesses and growth rates Business base by sector Growth sector businesses Business base by size Business density Business birth, death and survival rates Self employment Glasgow

Business Base (1) There were 22,240 businesses in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian in These are VAT and PAYE registered businesses. The region’s business base has grown faster than the Scotland average since The growth rate from 2014 to 2015 was 8.1% compared to 7.3% across Scotland. Total Number of Businesses and Growth Rates Number of businesses by year from 2010 – and growth rate comparators Source: UK Business Counts Change in number of business Glasgow

Business Base (2) Business Base by Sector, 2015
More than one in five businesses in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian (22%) are in the professional, scientific and technical sector, which is higher than the proportion for Scotland. There are 11% of businesses in the information and communications sector, the fastest growth sector for GVA, and the sector is more than twice as concentrated locally than for Scotland as a whole. Accommodation and food services are also well represented, reflecting the importance of the region for tourism and as a major service centre. Business Base by Sector, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (3) Growth Sectors
The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy identifies six growth sectors, detailed below, where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage. A greater proportion of the region’s growth sector businesses are in finance and business services (43% versus 36%) and creative industries than nationally (30% versus 19%), with far fewer in the food and drink sector (5% versus 22%). Growth Sectors Number of businesses by growth sector 2015 – and proportion of all growth sector businesses Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Growth sector businesses as a proportion of all business, 2015 Glasgow

Business Base (4) Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013
Financial and business services is the greatest contributor to growth sector GVA within the region (39% of the growth sector GVA total), followed by the creative industries (21%). The strength of the financial and business services sector in the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region is clearly illustrated. Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013 Source: Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Total GVA (£m) at basic prices of Scottish Government Growth Sectors by sector, 2013 Some figures are supressed due to data being disclosive Growth sector total GVA as a % of all Growth Sector GVA, 2013 Glasgow

Business Base (5) Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 ###
The region has a greater proportion of large enterprises (250 or more employees) than the Scotland and UK averages. With 120 large enterprises, these major employers provide significant opportunities in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian. The region also has proportionally more businesses with between 10 and 49 employees than the Scotland and UK. Business density in the region is 325 per 10,000 compared to 313 per 10,000 in Scotland. Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 Number of businesses by employee sizeband and by proportion of all businesses, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts ### Glasgow

Business Base (6) Business survival rates in the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region are in line with the Scotland and Great Britain averages, although this still means that more than half of all start-up businesses do not survive for three years. In all, 48% of businesses starting in 2010 had survived until The business birth rate in the region continues to be above the Scotland average. Business Birth and Death Rates ( ) and Survival Rates ( ) Note: A business is deemed to have survived if still active 5 years after birth. Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-year Population Estimates Glasgow

Business Base (7) Self Employment Chart misses 2014
Self employment rates are the proportion of the resident working age (16-64) population who are self employed. Self-employment rates in the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region have typically been higher than the Scotland average, and rates had been rising steadily to The rate dipped in 2014 but increased again in 2015 to above the Scotland average. Self Employment Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec each year Chart misses 2014 Glasgow

7. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian: Where are the Jobs?
Analysing the employment base of the region provides important information on the nature and functioning of the labour market. There have been significant occupational shifts in Scotland, reflected in changes in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian, where higher skilled occupation employment continues to increase. There has been jobs recovery since the recession, but not all of these have been good quality jobs. In this section: Total employment and rate of change Employment by sector and change over time Sectoral specialism Employment by occupation and change Non standard jobs – part time and non permanent Resident and workplace earnings Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (1) Total Employment and Change 2009-2015
There were 381,700 employees in the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region in These are people in jobs in VAT and PAYE registered businesses. There was strong initial recovery in the number of jobs post recession in 2011 followed by another modest rise in 2012, but between 2012 and 2014 the number of jobs remained broadly the same. In view of this, the 1% increase in the number of jobs in 2015 is welcome, an increase of 3,400 jobs. Total Employment and Change Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (2) Employment by sector provides important information on the industrial composition of the regional economy. Employment in the health sector comprises the largest share of employment in the region, 58,800 jobs and, at 15%, this close to the Scotland average. Education is another major employment sector reflecting the importance of Edinburgh as the administrative capital. Tourism related employment is another major employment sector, and at 9% this is more concentrated than across Scotland. Employment by Sector and proportion of Total Employment 2015 The importance of the Financial and Insurance sector to the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region is clear, with 35,400 employed in the sector in This is 9% of all employment, three times more concentrated than for Scotland as a whole. The professional, scientific and technical sector also accounts for 9% of employment, another high value added sector, which is again more concentrated than for Scotland. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (3) Sector Specialisms
Marrying employment growth trends by sector with the size and concentration of the sector in a region can provide important information on the dynamics of the labour market. Concentration of a sector is the extent to which employment in the sector is above (or below) sector concentration at the Scotland level. Sector Specialisms Sectors above the horizontal line are more concentrated in the region than in Scotland, those below the line less so. Sectors to the right of the vertical line are larger in employment terms than five years ago, to the left less so. Larger bubbles reflect higher sector employment. The large and concentrated finance sector has had recent employment decline. Although smaller the business admin sector is concentrated and has grown in size in the last five years. Construction is less concentrated and has declined in size in the last five years. Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (4) Employment by Occupation (2015)
The occupational profile of the region is important because occupation is often linked to skills requirements. There has been a steady and continuing shift to more professional occupations. The Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region demonstrates this transition where now more than one in four residents work in professional occupations (27%), far higher than the Scotland and Great Britain averages. This proportion has increased significantly over the last 10 years. Administrative and secretarial occupations still account for 13% of the total, but this proportion has decreased over the last 10 years, whereas caring, leisure and other services occupations in the region have grown. Employment by Occupation (2015) Change over time Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (5) Part-Time Employment 2005-15
Just over a quarter (26%) of those in employment work part-time and this is the same proportion as Scotland and Great Britain. More of the jobs created in the economic recovery have been part time jobs. There are also 6.3% in non-permanent employment, a higher percentage than nationally (5.4%). The proportion in non-permanent employment has risen steadily in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian since Nationally, 2.2% are employed on zero hours contracts. Part-Time Employment Non-Permanent Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey Non-permanent employment is the proportion of all of those of working age in employment types such as fixed-term contracts, temporary agency, casual or seasonal work. The increase in non-permanent employment reflects the changing nature of employment. Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (6) Some sectors are typically better paid than others, and the industrial base of the region is often an indicator of average wage levels. The composition of the industrial base within a region also affects workplace pay levels. Average gross weekly workplace earnings in Edinburgh City are £565 for all workers, well above the Scotland average of £492, reflecting better paid jobs in the financial and professional services. Workplace earnings are much lower In the East and Midlothian, and below the Scotland average. In the case of East Lothian, workplace earnings are well below average. Residence-based earnings are higher than workplace earnings in East and Midlothian, reflecting commuting into Edinburgh City. Average Weekly Workplace and Residence-based Earnings, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Glasgow

8. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian: Its People
The demographic characteristics of a region are extremely important in determining current and future demand for skills. The age profile of the population, the number of young people and elderly, the increasing proportion of retirees, are all contributory factors. The movement of people within a region, and into and out of a region, also affect the labour market and the supply of skills available to employers. In this section: Population growth Population profile Population projections Net migration Travel to work data Glasgow

People (1) Population Change over Time
The population of Edinburgh, East and Midlothian has grown faster than the Scotland average over the 10 years 2005 to 2015, as well as the rate of growth in Great Britain of 7.8%. The population of Edinburgh, East and Midlothian increased faster than the rate for Scotland over the last year ( ), +1.2% compared to +0.5%. Population Change over Time Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Year Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Scotland 2005 622,260 5,110,200 2006 625,910 5,133,100 2007 631,970 5,170,000 2008 637,530 5,202,900 2009 643,480 5,231,900 2010 651,440 5,262,200 2011 661,310 5,299,900 2012 667,730 5,313,600 2013 673,560 5,327,700 2014 680,920 5,347,600 2015 689,250 5,373,000 Change 66,990 262,800 % Change 11% 5% Glasgow

People (2) Age profile of the Region
Edinburgh, East and Midlothian has a younger age profile than the Scotland average. This is driven by growth of the age band since 2005 (+22%, 20,900) compared to Scotland (+12%). Edinburgh, East and Midlothian has also seen a much lower decline in the age band than Scotland (-3% v %) and has also had lower growth of the 65+ age band than Scotland (+14% v +18%). Overall, the working age population of the region increased by 45,000 over the 10 years to Age profile of the Region Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (3) Population Projections (2012-2037)
Source: National Records of Scotland Edinburgh, East and Midlothian’s population is projected to grow more quickly than in Scotland as a whole to 2037 (+24 compared to +8%). The working age population is also projected to grow compared to a national fall (+17% compared to -4%). Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population is projected to become older, although less markedly than other areas. Year Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Scotland 2014 679,799 5,346,120 2015 686,338 5,365,420 2016 693,126 5,385,719 2017 700,110 5,406,997 2018 707,306 5,429,012 2019 714,618 5,451,660 2020 721,989 5,474,391 2021 729,409 5,497,079 2022 736,855 5,519,588 2023 744,288 5,541,816 2024 751,693 5,563,670 2025 759,063 5,585,040 2026 766,394 5,605,814 2027 773,658 5,625,892 2028 780,836 5,645,150 2029 787,941 5,663,541 2030 794,997 5,681,121 2031 801,970 5,697,808 2032 808,846 5,713,523 2033 815,662 5,728,318 2034 822,409 5,742,297 2035 829,116 5,755,558 2036 835,781 5,768,217 2037 842,419 5,780,371 Change 162,620 434,251 % Change 24% 8% Glasgow

People (4) Net Migration
There has been variable net migration into Edinburgh, East and Midlothian in recent years. Net migration decreased sharply between 2010/11 and 2012/13, from 8,901 to 4,095. It has since risen sharply to 8,209 in 2014/15. The age band with by far the highest net migration in the year 2014/2015 was those aged (5,757), partly reflecting the region’s age profile and its attractiveness as a place to live, work and study. Net Migration Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (5) Travel to Work (2011 Census)
Almost three quarters of the region’s residents remain in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian to work. There are high levels of commuting in to the City of Edinburgh from other parts of the region and other regions to access higher paid jobs. The most self-contained labour market is the City of Edinburgh, with 86% of residents also employed there. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number
People (6) The workplace population of the City of Edinburgh at the time of the last Census was 260,286, and of these workers, 64% were resident in the city (165,533). A lower number of Edinburgh City workers were commuting in from elsewhere in Scotland (92,009). Overall, there was a positive net flow of workers to the City of Edinburgh (68,733). In contrast, there were was a negative net flow of 13,000 workers in East Lothian and nearly 10,000 in Midlothian. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Note: Not currently available in the data matrix Council area of workplace Total workplace population Lives and works in the area Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number Net flow of workers Works in the area but lives elsewhere in Scotland Works in the area but lives in the rest of UK Lives in the area but works elsewhere in Scotland Lives in the area but works in the rest of the UK Within Scotland From the rest of the UK Total City of Edinburgh 260,286 165,533 92,009 2,744 24,560 1,460 67,449 1,284 68,733 East Lothian 23,678 16,252 7,224 202 21,015 329 -13,791 -127 -13,918 Midlothian 22,967 11,856 10,276 835 20,571 182 -10,295 653 -9,642 Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

9. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian: Labour Market
The functioning of the labour market is influenced by labour market participation. Those unemployed or economically inactive will not be directly contributing to the economic success of the region, although their situation may be temporary, or indeed those inactive may be learning and studying and be a future contributor to the region. In this section: Age composition of workforce Economic activity Qualifications Participation Unemployment Glasgow

Labour Market (1) Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates
Edinburgh, East and Midlothian’s activity and inactivity rates have remained relatively stable between 2005 and 2015, remaining between 77-79% and 21-23% respectively. Scotland’s rates have remained stable throughout, also staying at 77-78% and 22-23% respectively. Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (2) Qualifications
The highest level qualifications of the resident working age population is a useful barometer of skills attainment levels. There remains a cohort in regional economies with no formal qualifications which used to be associated with older workers. Jobs increasingly require higher levels of qualification, including so-called entry level jobs. The increasingly qualified working age population in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian is illustrated, with 53% now qualified to SCQF Level 7-12, compared to 43% for Scotland. There is a lower proportion of the region however with no qualifications, 6% compared to the Scotland average of 9%. Qualifications Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (3) Participation
The Participation Measure is a new measure which provides the ability to identify the status of the wider cohort – not just those who have left school. Participation of young people aged in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian was in line with the Scottish rate of 90%. Participation Source: Skills Development Scotland Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Scotland Number % Total Cohort (16-19) 22,299 Participating (16-19) 20,027 90% Education 15,339 69% 71% Employment 4,019 18% 17% Other Training & Development 669 3% 2% Not Participating (16-19) 834 4% Unemployed Seeking 545 Unemployed not Seeking 289 1% Unconfirmed Status (16-19) 1,438 6% Glasgow

Labour Market (4) The way unemployment is measured is changing due to the introduction of Universal Credit. As such, the data is regarded as ‘experimental’ and care is needed when comparing to previous years (all regions have recorded a fall in claimant count unemployment under the new measure). Unemployment – Claimant Count (includes Universal Credit) – experimental measure Source: Job Seekers Allowance Year Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Scotland Great Britain May 2005 1,100 12,760 115,375 May 2006 1,355 13,265 141,970 May 2007 1,060 12,490 145,310 May 2008 645 7,825 99,735 May 2009 785 10,320 123,545 May 2010 2,170 20,870 252,170 May 2011 1,970 20,340 203,195 May 2012 3,470 35,725 378,480 May 2013 3,740 38,090 410,710 May 2014 2,975 29,470 310,865 May 2015 1,815 19,145 197,275 May 2016 1,245 16,515 158,520 Glasgow

10. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian: Skills Challenges
Employers can have difficulties accessing the skills they need, skills deficiencies can be amongst those they are seeking to recruit and amongst those in their existing workforce. Skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) relate to the skills shortages amongst those being recruited, and skills gaps are a deficit within the existing workforce. The 2015 UKCES Employer Skills Survey provides timely data in relation to these and other issues. In this section: Skills shortages Skills gaps Recruitment activity Skills under-utilisation Glasgow

Skills Challenges (1) Skills Shortages
The UKCES Employer Skills Survey 2015 data indicates that across Edinburgh, East and Midlothian skills shortage vacancies are slightly less prevalent than across Scotland at 0.5% of the total workforce, compared to 0.8% in Scotland as a whole. Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages account for 0.7% of the workforce, compared to 1.1% in Scotland as a whole. In all, 8% of establishments report at least one hard to fill vacancy in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian, the same rate as across Scotland. Skills Shortages Source: UKCES Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Scotland Hard to fill vacancies as % of workforce 0.7% 1.1% Skills shortage vacancies as % of workforce 0.5% 0.8% Glasgow

Skills Challenges (2) Skills Gaps
Skills gaps occur when employers think their employees lack some of the skills required to be fully proficient at their job. Around 3% of the workforce in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian have skills gaps compared to 5% nationally. The proportion of employers in the region reporting a skills gap is the same as the national average. Skills gaps are most prevalent in sales and customer services staff in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian 71% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally) Skills Gaps Source: UKCES Glasgow

Skills Challenges (3) Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation
Overall, 61% of Edinburgh, East and Midlothian businesses had recruited staff during the year prior to the 2015 UKCES survey, above the national average of 53%. The number of vacancies was above the Scottish average with 22% of employers in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian having at least one vacancy. In total, 36% of employers in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian had staff who were under-utilised, this was above the national average. Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation Source: UKCES Glasgow

11. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian: Schools Data
The number of young people at school and projected school roll numbers are important as those at school will form part of the future labour market. The destination of those leaving school also has an impact on the labour market, as young people might enter employment, education and training, or none of these after school. In this section: School roll numbers School roll projections School leaver destinations Glasgow

Schools Data (1) Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group
There were 28,868 secondary school pupils in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian in The region had slightly higher proportions of S6 pupils (13% v 12%) and lower proportions of S2 pupils (17% v 18%) compared to Scotland as a whole. Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Scotland S1 5,231 50,813 S2 4,992 49,514 S3 5,204 50,197 S4 5,167 51,078 S5 4,665 45,817 S6 3,609 33,936 Total Pupils 28,868 281,355 Glasgow

Schools Data (2) Secondary School Roll Number Projections
Based on the latest available projections (2012), secondary school roll numbers are expected to remain relatively static up to This is compared to a 2% drop in numbers for Scotland over the same period of time (2014 – 2018). Secondary School Roll Number Projections Source: Scottish Government Pupil Projections Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Scotland 2014 28,900 282,800 2015 28,500 278,000 2016 28,400 275,300 2017 28,300 275,100 2018 28,800 277,900 Glasgow

Schools Data (3) School Leaver Destinations
In 2013/14 and 2014/15, the proportion of school pupils progressing to a positive destination in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian was 92%, this was in line with Scotland as a whole. There were lower proportions of leavers entering Higher Education compared to Scotland (33% v. 37%). The proportion of Edinburgh, East and Midlothian leavers entering Higher Education decreased by two percentage points between 2013/14 and 2014/15, the same percentage point decline as nationally. School Leaver Destinations Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset 2013/14 2014/15 Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Scotland Positive Destination 92% Higher Education 35% 39% 33% 37% Further Education 20% 24% 23% Training 3% Employment 32% 25% 28% Voluntary Work 1% 0% Activity Agreement Unemployed Seeking 6% 7% Unemployed Non-Seeking 2% Unknown Glasgow

12. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian: Skills Provision
There is a wide variety of skills and learning provision available which is designed to meet the future skills needs of the economy. Amongst this is the provision commissioned by Skills Development Scotland, notably via the Apprenticeship family of products (Modern Apprenticeships, Foundation Apprenticeships and Graduate Level Apprenticeships) and the Employability Fund and delivered by approved training providers including Colleges, Universities and Private training providers. In this section: Modern Apprenticeships by participant characteristic and framework grouping Foundation Apprenticeships Graduate Level Apprenticeships Employability Fund and Certificate of Work Readiness starts Glasgow

Skills Provision (1) MA Total Number of Starts
Modern Apprenticeships (MA) help employers to develop their workforce by training new and existing employees. For individuals, an MA lets them earn a wage while gaining a qualification. In 2015/16, Edinburgh, East and Midlothian had 2,540 MA starts which accounted for 10% of all MA starts nationally. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian had a smaller proportion of candidates from the older age bracket, 25+ (16%), than Scotland as a whole (20%). MA Total Number of Starts MA Starts 2015/16, by Age Glasgow

Skills Provision (2) MA Starts by Gender 2010-2016
The gender split of MA uptake in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian differed from the national picture. Nationally the broad trend has been a proportionate increase of male participation in MAs and declining female participation. The region has had increased female participation since 2014/15, although female participation remains below that of males. More information on gender split in different frameworks can be found in Skills Provision (4). The representation of disabled individuals in MAs across Scotland remains low, 4% of individuals starting an MA had a disability however 19% of the working age population in Scotland have a disability. MA Starts by Gender MA Starts by Disability Glasgow

Skills Provision (3) MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16
The uptake of MAs in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian shows a more diverse ethnic mix than across Scotland overall. Participants with a Black Minority and Ethnic (BME) background accounted for 2.7% of MA starts in the region compared to 1.6% across the country. However this is lower than the overall BME working age population in Scotland of 3.1% (APS 2014) which suggests an under representation. MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16

Skills Provision (4) In 2015/16, the most popular MA framework group in the region was Construction & Related (includes trade such as plumbing and joinery), it was also one of the most gender segregated with 99% male starts. Other male dominated groups included Other Manufacture (100%) and Automotive (95%). Female participation was proportionally highest in Personal Service (includes hairdressing) (88%) and Sport, Health and Social Care (81%). Modern Apprenticeship Starts by Framework Group and Gender Note: figures rounded to the nearest 5, figures less than 5 have suppressed. Percentages have been calculated on unrounded figures. Glasgow

Skills Provision (5) MA Achievement Rates 2010/11- 2015/16
MA achievement rates give the proportion of MA starts who completed their apprenticeship: gaining their target qualification and reaching work-based learning aims. Achievement rates in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian have shown a similar trend but have been consistently below the Scottish average. In 2015/16, in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian 73% candidates completed their course and achieved their MA. MA Achievement Rates 2010/ /16 Glasgow

Skills Provision (6) Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) were developed to help school pupils gain work experience and access work-based learning. S4 and S5 students spend time at college or with a local employer, and complete the FA alongside other subjects like National 5s and Highers. The qualification takes two years and can lead to employment or further study at college or university. FAs were piloted in some regions in 2014 and participation has grown over the past three years. The data shows uptake from the past two years and anticipated uptake for 2016/18. Foundation Apprenticeships, National Uptake 2014/ /18 Foundation Apprenticeships In 2016/18, the national uptake of FLA is expected to be over 300. In 2016/18 there are eight frameworks available, linked to six key sectors: Business Skills, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Financial Services, IT Hardware, IT Software, Social Services CYP, Social Services & Healthcare SDS aims to make FLA part of every secondary school’s offer by 2020. Glasgow

Skills Provision (7) Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development
Graduate Level Apprenticeships (GLAs) provide work-based learning opportunities up to Master’s degree level for employees. They have been created in partnership with industry and the further and higher education sector. Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development GLAs are currently available in: ICT/Digital: Software Development ICT/Digital: IT Management for Business Engineering: manufacturing and Design Civil Engineering Over the course of 2017 the intention is to expand the offer to include: Business and Management SCQF Level 10 Engineering (Instrumentation, Measurement and Control SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Cyber Security SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Digital Media SCQF Level 10) Life Sciences SCQF Level 10 Children and Young People SCQF Level 8 Glasgow

Skills Provision (8) The Employability Fund (EF) supports locally delivered services that are designed to encourage unemployed people to move towards work. SDS administers the EF on behalf of the Scottish Government*. EF starts in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian in 2015/16 were almost 10% of total participants in Scotland. Uptake by women was proportionally higher in the region at 39% compared to Scotland overall, 36%. Employability Fund Starts 2015/16, Total and by Gender *All data provided relates only to SDS funded activity. As other entities administer EF programme the data will not reflect total participation Glasgow

Skills Provision (9) The Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) addresses the challenge that young people have of gaining work experience and workplace skills prior to entering the labour market. The CWR provides young people with 190 hours of work experience and an assessment from an employer to certify that they have established workplace competencies. In 2015/16, 8% of the total individual uptake of CWR and 7% of employers involved in the scheme were from Edinburgh, East and Midlothian. Certificate of Work Readiness 2015/16, Starts and Employers Glasgow

13. Edinburgh, East & Midlothian: College Activity
Colleges provide a range of opportunities for all students, regardless of prior achievement, from access courses to degree level qualifications to meet national, regional and local economic needs. Qualifications include National 4 & 5s, NQ, HNC, HND and Degrees. Colleges also provide qualifications towards Foundation and Modern Apprenticeships. Data in this section relates to enrolments at Edinburgh College and Newbattle Abbey College and was provided by Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: College activity by age and gender Travel to study: location of students College activity by subject Gaelic language activity College activity: FE/HE Outcomes and destinations Glasgow

College Activity (1) 2015/16 college enrolments
In 2015/16, there were 20,585 enrolments at Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Colleges, 7% of all enrolments across Scotland. Most enrolments were on part-time courses, although proportionately fewer than the trend nationally. Both regionally and nationally, the 25+ age group was the largest overall in terms of enrolments. This age group accounted for 25% of full-time enrolments and 52% of part-time enrolments. This suggests that college activity is characterised by older students on part-time courses and younger students on full-time courses. 2015/16 college enrolments 2015/16 college enrolments by age Note: Unless otherwise stated all data is for total college enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (2) 2015/16 college enrolments by gender
Nationally in 2015/16, females (51%) accounted for slightly more enrolments than males (49%). However within Edinburgh, East and Midlothian the opposite was true with slightly more enrolments from males. The enrolment data shows that college provision was largely taken up by local residents (78%) and those from elsewhere in Scotland (18%). 2015/16 college enrolments by gender 2015/16 college enrolments by home area Glasgow

College Activity (3) College enrolments by SIMD
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) measure shows that in 2015/16 a lower proportion (10%) of college enrolments at Edinburgh College and Newbattle Abbey College came from the 10% most deprived areas, compared to Scotland as a whole (15%) which reflects the relative affluence of the region. Compared to colleges across Scotland, colleges in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian had proportionally more enrolments in Higher Education (HE) (23% vs. 18%) and fewer in Further Education (FE) (77% vs. 82%). College enrolments by SIMD College enrolments by HE/FE Note: Further Education (FE) refers to courses leading to qualifications up to SCQF level 7. Higher Education (HE) refers to courses at SCQF level 7 and above. Glasgow

College Activity (4) Of the 20,585 college enrolments in the region, just under one quarter (23%) were in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects. The proportion of full-time STEM enrolments was higher (26%) than part-time enrolments (21%). More than six times as many male enrolments were in STEM subjects (40%) compared to female STEM enrolments (6%) in the region. Construction was the top STEM subject area with 1,000 enrolments in 2015/16. College enrolments - STEM subject and mode of study Ten largest STEM subject areas by total enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (5) Business, management and administration was the largest subject area in terms of full-time enrolments locally in 2015/16 which mirrors the region’s strong performance in the financial and business services sector as seen in Section 4. Engineering was the second most frequently subject studied and was one of the most gender segregated with males accounting for 94% of enrolments. Across Scotland, Care was the largest subject area by full-time enrolments but was a much smaller subject area in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian. College enrolments by full-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (6) Languages & ESOL was the largest subject area by part-time enrolments in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian (2015/16), 22% compared to 8% nationally. Many (77%) of those enrolled in Languages and ESOL were older learners aged 25+ age. Care, Engineering and Construction had a similarly high number of enrolments, totalling 4,165 combined. Both Construction and Engineering were male dominated subjects, with 94% of enrolments being male. College enrolments by part-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (7) Gaelic FE enrolments
Enrolment of students on Gaelic FE courses varies considerably across the country. The Highlands & Islands had the greatest uptake, with enrolments increasing by 14% from 2014/15 to 2015/16. There was a decrease in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian over the same period. Gaelic uptake across other regions is mixed, with nine regions reporting no Gaelic college activity. Overall Gaelic enrolments across Scotland increased by 12% from 2014/15 to 2015/16, rising from 1,260 to 1,405. Gaelic FE enrolments Note: Data is institution rather than resident-based Glasgow

College Activity (8) 2015/16 FE student outcomes
In 2015/16, 65% of FE students at Edinburgh College and Newbattle Abbey College successfully completed their course. Around one third of destinations was unknown. Of those known, 7% entered employment and 92% of learners progressed onto additional education or training, including higher level study or Modern Apprenticeships. 2015/16 FE student outcomes 2014/15 college destinations Note: Completed partial success indicates that a student completed the course but did not gain the qualification. This also includes students who gained employment before finishing the course or transferred to another course Glasgow

14. Edinburgh, East & Midlothian University Provision
Scotland has strong university provision with more world-class universities than any other country by head of population. There are five universities in Scotland that are ranked in the world’s top 200 (2015 Times Higher Education rankings). Scotland’s universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In Edinburgh, East & Midlothian the University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh Napier University, Queen Margaret University, Herriot-Watt University and SRUC Edinburgh provide educational opportunities to residents and also attract students to the region. Data in this section was provided by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: Study destination for region’s residents Students numbers within the region by gender, age and home area Subject choice Student graduation by level Student destinations by employment and industry Glasgow

University Provision (1)
The largest Higher Education Institution (HEI) in the region was the University of Edinburgh which accounted for around half (52%) of university students. Edinburgh Napier University was the next largest accounting for 22% of students in the region. Students at HEIs in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian 2014/15 Note: Unless otherwise stated, data on this and subsequent slides is institution, not resident based and refers to university campuses located in Scotland and excludes study with the Open University Scotland, campuses outside of Scotland and incomplete records.

In 2014/15, the number of students at HEI in the region increased from the previous year but maintained the same proportion (27%) of Scotland's total. Across Scotland HE students numbers grew by 1%. The gender split in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian was 57% female and 43% male uptake, similar to the respective national uptake of 58% female and 42% male. 2013/14-14/15 total student number 2014/15 HEI students, by gender Glasgow

In 2014/15, the largest student cohort by age at HEI in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian were those in the age range (45%). This was similar to the national picture (42%). A higher proportion of students attending universities in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian came from elsewhere in the UK and outside the UK than the national average which suggests the strong university provision makes the region an attractive education destination. 2014/15 university students, by age 2014/15 university students, by home area Glasgow

21,625 residents of Edinburgh, East & Midlothian attended a number of HEIs across Scotland in 2014/15. However more than two-thirds attended the top five HEIs and four of the five were located within the region reflecting the quality and choice of HE provision locally. The Open University was also a popular choice for residents of Edinburgh, East & Midlothian and attendees from the region represented 17% of the total Open University uptake across Scotland. Top 5 universities attended by Edinburgh, East and Midlothian residents 2014/15

In 2014/15 at HEIs in the region, the most frequently studied subject was Business and Administrative Studies (15% of total) and this was also the case across Scotland (14% of total). Other popular subject choices were Subjects Allied to Medicine, Biological Sciences and Engineering which mirrors the region’s strong performance in financial and business services and the professional, scientific and technical sectors. 2014/15 total enrolment of students at HE Institutions, by subject Glasgow

In 2014/15, 62% of students who studied at HEIs in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian, graduated with a first degree. The remaining 38% achieved a postgraduate qualification. This was similar to the national trend with 65% of all Scottish graduates completing a first degree and 35% completing a postgraduate course. 2014/15 university graduates by level of study Glasgow

Data on this and the following two slides was provided by the HESA Graduate Destinations Survey which surveys a sample of Higher Education Institutes graduates six months after leaving university. In 2014/15, the majority of graduates from HEIs in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian entered full-time work (63%), which was slightly higher than the percentage nationally (61%). Of who responded, 5% were unemployed, which was in line with the national trend. 2014/15 university graduates by employment status Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from HEIs in the region went on to work in a range of occupations. The largest percentage (41%) were engaged as professionals and a further 18% were working in associate professional occupations. Proportionally more graduates from HEIs in Edinburgh, East & Midlothian went to work in higher level occupations compared to the trend nationally. 2014/15 university graduates by occupation Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from HEIs in the region surveyed by HESA worked in a wide range of industries. The largest group entered the education sector (14%) closely followed by human health and social work (13%) and professional, scientific and technical activities (12%), which reflects the region’s economic performance in this sector. 2014/15 university graduates, employment by industry Glasgow

15. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian: Jobs and skills changes
This section will outline forecasted changes in employment from 2015 to 2024, and the nature of changing demand for qualifications in specific occupational areas. It will also consider longer term changes in the labour market and future expansion and replacement employment demand. In this section: Forecasts demand for jobs and how these may change Changing occupational and qualification demand Long-term changes in the labour market Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to rise by 0.6% per year on average over the period, significantly ahead of the 0.2% average annual growth expected for Scotland as a whole. Growth at this pace equates to over 24,000 additional jobs in the area by Professional, scientific & technical activities, administrative & support activities and wholesale and retail are expected to account for over half of new jobs (12,300) in the area over the period. The human health & social work sector is also expected to experience significant growth, creating 3,100 jobs. In contrast, significant jobs losses are expected in manufacturing (1,300 jobs) and public administration (1,200 jobs). Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Total Employment Growth Edinburgh, East & Midlothian Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

No occupational groups are expected to experience a decline over the forecast. The number of workers in the professional occupations will enjoy the biggest increase over (5,900 people) followed by associate professional and technical occupations (2,600 people) reflecting the sectoral growth in professional, scientific and technical activities. Caring, leisure and other service occupations will also experience significant growth (2,500 people) as will elementary occupations (2,000 people). Managers, directors and senior official (1,300 people), skilled trades occupations (1,300 people) and sales and customer services (1,000 people) will also experience growth, with process, plant and machine operatives remaining relatively static (300 people). Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The majority of openings in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for 61% of the 170,700 openings expected to be created between 2016 and The remaining opportunities will mainly be for individuals qualified to SCQF levels 5-6, equivalent to 30% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level. Forecast employment change by Qualification ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Replacement demand will result in over 153,500 openings within Edinburgh, East and Midlothian over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 17,200 openings between However together with replacement demand, will result in 170,700 openings over this period. Openings will be highest within professional and elementary occupations. Combined these will account for 44% of openings in the region. They each are expected to experience both expansion and replacement demand over the forecast. The total requirement for workers in administrative and secretarial occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

16. Edinburgh, East & Midlothian: What are the key implications?
The Regional Skills Assessments provide the national policy context, the national economic picture and trends and the regional position. The regional perspective covers in some depth the demand for skills, current and forecast, as well as skills activity in place to meet these needs. There is a wide range of data, with further data available in the accompanying data matrix. This final section draws out some of the key implications for improving the performance of labour markets. These are not solutions for partners, but rather implications from the analysis upon which skills investment planning decisions can be made. In this section: Review of the demand for skills Review of current skills activity to meet need Key implications for skills investment planning and recommended focus for action Glasgow

Edinburgh, East & Midlothian: Headline Summary (1)
. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics Jobs increases returned to the region again in 2015, following no real growth over the period The Edinburgh, East and Midlothian economy had outperformed Scotland between 2010 and 2012 showing strong recovery post-recession. The 3,400 new jobs – a 1% increase – were driven strongly by accommodation and food services (+3,800), a proxy for tourism jobs, and by health (+1,900), information and communications (+1,100). There were however 1,900 fewer jobs in the important financial services sector, and the uncertainty following the Brexit vote may result in further instability in the sector. There were also 1,500 fewer in business administration and support services. The region is an important administrative centre, and 1 in 4 in employment works in heath and education. Finance and insurance jobs are three times more concentrated than nationally, with strong representation also in professional, scientific and technical services. These are typically higher paid jobs and strong contributors to regional GVA. Although the region remains a strong financial services sector (35,400 jobs), there are now more employed in accommodation and food services (36,000). Glasgow

. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued) Overall, Edinburgh, East and Midlothian is a successful region that has successfully made the transition to a knowledge-based economy. Some 27% of those in work and living in the region are in professional occupations, well above the 20% for Scotland. This proportion has increased over the last 10 years, and at a faster rate than elsewhere. Despite such regional success, there are some parts amongst the most deprived 10% in Scotland. There are close to 40 datazones (areas with around 500 persons) in the most deprived 10% in Scotland, including concentrations in the City of Edinburgh, although the number has been falling since 2006. Although the new measure of unemployment including Universal Claimants has shown falling claimants, this has been the case nationally. However, the rate has fallen faster in the region than for Scotland, reflecting the increase in the number of jobs. More are qualified to SCQF 7-12, and demand for these qualifications continues to increase. Fewer than average have no qualifications. The population has increased by 11% over the last 10 years, more than twice the Scotland rate. It is forecast to increase by a further 24% by 2037, three times the increase across Scotland. Glasgow

. Skills Challenges A higher than average proportion of employers at the time of the last survey in 2015 were reporting at least one vacancy, further signs of an improving regional jobs market. The proportion reporting hard-to-fill vacancies and skills shortage vacancies were no higher than the Scotland average. Some 36% of the employers however reported under-utilization of skills in their workforce, above the Scotland average. Skills gaps are in line with the Scotland average, and highest amongst sales and customer service occupations. Glasgow

Skills Activity to Meet Current and Future Demand Work-based learning is critical to meeting skills development needs. There were 2,540 MA Starts in 2015/2016, up on the previous year and the highest levels to date. This is testament to the endeavors in the region to increase work-based learning levels The top five MA frameworks largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, health & social care (with sport), retail & customer services, hospitality & tourism, and administration & related. Others services (including ICT professionals) and financial services are also well represented, reflecting their regional importance. There is a continuing gender imbalance in many MA frameworks and MAs are still not commonplace in some sectors such as the Creative Industries Glasgow

. Future Trends There are expected to be a further 24,000 jobs in the region by 2024, growth at 0.6% per year, three times the Scotland rate of increase. Jobs growth is expected in the professional, scientific & technical services and administrative & support services, which are expected to account for almost half of new jobs (12,200). The health & social work sector is also expected to experience significant growth, creating 3,100 jobs. In contrast, significant jobs losses are expected in manufacturing (1,300 jobs) and public administration (1,200 jobs). A further 150,000+ openings are expected as a result of replacement demand to More than six in 10 of these will be SCQF level 7 and above and 90% will be level 5 and above. This reaffirms the need for a strong skills base. 44% of openings will be in professional and elementary occupations, more than 65,000, with further openings in administration, sales (5,000+) and Glasgow

Edinburgh, East & Midlothian: Key Implications (1)
. Recommended Areas of Focus Maintaining and increasing higher level skills supply. There is very strong jobs growth forecast in the region, with continuing high demand for professional occupations. This will need a strong supply of high level skills to meet employer demand. Meeting the needs of employers in key regional sectors. There are a number of growth sectors where demand will need to be met, as well as key occupations where there is high replacement demand. These include: Accommodation and food services, which has grown strongly in the region and which increases the demand for hospitality and tourism skills; Care, where there is strong replacement demand and where the growing population will increase demand further; Financial services, where there the region remains a strong employment centre; Administration & related occupations, linked to business administration & support where replacement demand is strong; The professional, scientific and technical sector, where there is both expected jobs growth and strong replacement demand. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus Encouraging employer investment in skills. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills, in order to meet high levels of skills demand across sectors and occupations. A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. A need to increase the pool of labour. The increases in jobs and replacement demand means that there is a need to increase the labour supply. Population growth will provide some of this, however there is a need to attract as many as possible into the region’s labour market and share in the region’s success. Routes into work for those groups outside the labour market continue to be required. There is also a requirement to ensure that those across the region partake in the region’s success, including those in Midlothian, where household incomes are not as high as in Edinburgh City and East Lothian. Glasgow

Recommended Areas of Focus A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning a feature of this. A need to meet the region’s infrastructure needs. This will require adequate construction, engineering and professional skills given anticipated levels of demand as a result of the Edinburgh and South of Scotland City Region Deal and other investment. Tackling gender imbalances in the sector can be part of meeting these needs. . Glasgow

Appendix: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Click here to go back to the main presentation: Where are the Jobs (3) - Sector Specialisms

Regional Skills Assessment 2016

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