Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Regional Skills Assessment 2016
Tayside comprising Angus, Dundee and Perth & Kinross OK Glasgow

Contents Section 1: Introducing the Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Section 2: National Policy Context Section 3: The National Economic and Skills Context Section 4: Tayside in Context Section 5: Economic Performance of Tayside Section 6: The Tayside Business Base Section 7: Where are the jobs in Tayside Section 8: The People of Tayside Section 9: The Tayside Labour Market Section 10: Skills Challenges in Tayside Section 11: Schools numbers and destinations in Tayside Section 12: Skills Provision in Tayside Section13: College Activity Section 14: University Provision Section 15: How are Skills and Jobs Likely to Change? Section 16: What are the key implications for the Region? Glasgow

1. Introducing the RSAs In this section:
What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? What is not covered by the RSAs? Other sources of useful information Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
Regional Skills Assessments provide a coherent evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Their purpose is to: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses. Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills. Support wider public and private investment propositions. Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
RSAs are developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. They cover demand for skills, supply of people and skills, skills provision and skills challenges. ….and include employment and GVA forecasts and trends to help identify future skills needs RSA cover: Regional performance and characteristics Trends over time How does the region compare to Scotland High level implications for skills planning Provide a data matrix to allow further analysis RSAs do not: Answer every question... however can be used alongside data matrix and other national and local intelligence Tell partners what they should do – although RSAs are designed to support making better informed decisions Glasgow

RSA data sources and coverage
The Regional Skills Assessments are underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on 117 social and economic indicators With data at 3 spatial levels: Regional Outcome Agreement areas; City Region Deal; Local Authority – with Scotland and GB/UK comparators where available The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). No primary research is involved. The data matrix is found here: The data matrix including a full user guide is available at: do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments Data Matrix sources include: Annual Population Survey Business Register Employment Survey UKCES Employer Skills Survey UK Business Counts Census Data Scottish Government Growth Sector datasets Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Partner data sources include: SDS Participation Measure data SDS Apprenticeship Family data SE and HIE data on Regional Selective Assistance and Account Managed businesses supported SLAED data on major infrastructure projects Glasgow

Other useful sources and publications
Other useful sources of current and forthcoming information are available. Scottish Government Labour Market Strategy Scottish Government Economic Strategy Sectoral and Regional Skills Investment Plans UKCES Employer Survey data Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Reports RBS Business Monitor Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index Glasgow

2: National Policy Context
In this section: Government Economic Strategy Labour Market Strategy Youth Employment Strategy Skills Planning Model Scotland’s Skills Agencies Enterprise and Skills Review Glasgow

Economic Strategy (1) Scotland’s Economic Strategy (2015) reaffirms the Scottish Government’s commitment to creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. It sets out an overarching framework for achieving the two mutually supportive goals of increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy and prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.

Labour Market Strategy (2)
Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy (2016) sets out for the first time how the labour market and wider social and economic policies interact to drive ambitions for inclusive growth. It provides a framework for the approach to the labour market, and describes the actions that will be taken to deliver the vision. Vision: “A strong labour market that drives inclusive, sustainable economic growth, characterised by growing, competitive businesses, high employment, a skilled population capable of meeting the needs of employers, and where fair work is central to improving the lives of individuals and their families.“ Five priorities: promoting the Fair Work Framework and encouraging responsible business; supporting employability and skills, so that all of our people can participate successfully in the labour market; investing in our people and our infrastructure; fostering innovation including workplace innovation which will help spur job creation; and promoting Scotland internationally to improve the competitiveness of our businesses.

Youth Employment (3) Developing the Young Workforce – Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy (2014) sets out how the Scottish Government will implement the recommendations from the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce, with headline target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021:

Skills Planning Model (4)
Regional Skills Assessments are at the heart of Scotland’s Skills Planning Model by providing an evidence base to understand demand for skills and to influence planning and investment to meet demand.

Scotland’s Skills Agencies (5)
Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council are the two core skills agencies for Scotland. Skills Development Scotland Making Skills Work for Scotland: Employers are better able to recruit the right people with the right skills at the right time Employers have high performing, highly productive, fair and equal workplaces People have the right skills and confidence to secure good work, progress in their careers and achieve their full potential Across all SDS services and programmes, there is increased equality of opportunity SDS is recognised as an employer of choice, an exemplar of fair work, and internationally recognised for excellence, innovation and customer focus Scottish Funding Council, Ambition 2025: Scotland - the Best Place in the World to Learn, to Educate, to Research and to Innovate “Our ambition is that Scotland will be the best place in the world to learn, to educate, to research, and to innovate……with colleges and universities making a major contribution to Scotland’s social, cultural and economic development.” Priority outcomes: High-quality learning and teaching World-leading research Greater innovation in the economy.

Enterprise & Skills Review (6)
Report on Phase One (2016) included a series of recommendations of relevance to skills investment planning “We will align the functions of our skills agencies to better join up how learning and skills are planned and provided to learners and employers.” “We will conduct a comprehensive review of the Learning Journey focused on sustained employment, with significantly enhanced use of labour market information in skills planning at its heart.” “We will review the effectiveness of our investment in learning and skills to ensure we have the right balance of provision across age groups and sectors and maximise its contribution to productivity and inclusive growth.” Next steps; Regional partnerships Digital Enterprise support

3: Scotland’s Economic and Skills Context
In this section: Economic Recession to Recovery Productivity Employment Non Standard Jobs Occupational Change In Work poverty Skills Challenges Scotland’s people Looking to the Future Glasgow

Economic Recession to Recovery (1)
The ‘great recession’ was the longest and deepest recession in the UK since the 1930s both in terms of depth of recession and time to recover GDP. The UK posted the slowest recovery of any advanced economy (aside from Italy and Greece) with recovery only taking hold after pause to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and consumer spending and investment. Scotland’s recession was shallower than the UK. Different sectors had different rates of recovery. Recession and Recovery in Scotland Output Source: Adapted from Fraser of Allander. March 2016 Glasgow

Productivity (2) Productivity in Scotland
Moderated growth in the international economy and Scotland and poor productivity growth presents challenging conditions for many sectors and industries. Productivity in Scotland UK trails G7 advanced economies on productivity by 18 percentage points. Scotland trails UK. UK trails US productivity across all sectors, especially manufacturing. There is evidence that the UK manufacturing productivity in line with France/ Germany. But significant deterioration versus Europe in financial services and private service sector. Productivity improvements have been muted at a Scottish level over the last six years and have fallen behind wages growth. This suggests a weakening of Scotland’s competitive advantage. Fraser of Allander Institute argue that total factor productivity in Scotland is much lower than UK. In the absence of faster Scottish population growth, sustained economic growth will require raising competitiveness. Glasgow

Employment (3) Jobs in Scotland
Total employment in Scotland continued to fall until 2012, but has risen sharply since then. Total employment in was 1.5% greater than in 2009, although this is compared to a 7% increase in the UK. This has been dominated by private sector growth alongside a fall in public sector employment. Jobs in Scotland Employment Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Glasgow

Non Standard Jobs (4) The Rise of Non-Standard Work
Although Scotland is experiencing a growth in total employment since pre-recession times, a large part of this is due to the rise of ‘non standard jobs’ – part time, temporary and self employment. Of the new jobs created since the recovery, 50,000+ have been part time jobs, 35,000+ have been self-employed jobs and more than 13,000 have been temporary jobs. Only 9,000 or so have been full time jobs. The Rise of Non-Standard Work Employment change in Scotland and the UK, 2008 – 2015 Source: Labour Force Survey Glasgow

Occupational Change (5)
The occupational shift has seen a polarisation of employment with a strong bias towards higher skilled occupations. In effect, what we are seeing is an hour glass labour market. This represents significant challenges for progression. Occupational Shifts Source: 2011 Census, Labour Force Survey, Oxford Economics Glasgow

In-Work Poverty (6) Low Pay and in-work Poverty
Historically, being in work was seen as a way of escaping poverty, however more recently this is not the case for all. In 2014/15 , 260,000 people or 55% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, before housing costs (BHC). In 2014/15, 350,000 people or 58% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, after housing costs (AHC). In-work poverty can be a particular challenge for some groups – women, younger people, older workers, those with no qualifications, some ethnic groups, lone parents and people with disabilities. Low Pay and in-work Poverty In-work poverty (relative poverty AHC) in Scotland: 1998/99 to 2014/15 Number of individuals in poverty in households with at least one adult in employment Source:HBAI dataset, DWP Glasgow

Skills Challenges (7) Current Skills Challenges in Scotland (From Employer Skills Survey 2015) Steep rise in vacancies from 54,000 (2013) to 74,000 (2015) – reflecting higher demand for labour Proportion of establishments reporting Skills Shortage Vacancies in Scotland rose from 3% (2011) to 4% (2013) and 6% (2015) – in line with UK trends Proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps fell to 14% (2015) – same as at UK level Increasing levels of under-employment and under-utilisation of skills – 32% of establishments reported at least one member of staff with both skills and qualifications above the level required for the job Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties are likely to be a permanent feature of the Scottish labour market, particularly where experienced labour is required Along with under-employment and under-utilisation of skills, this will make improving productivity a challenging task Glasgow

Scotland’s People (8) People and Demographics
There have been strong population increases in Scotland, driven by in migration. The population is, however, an ageing one, with changing age demographics. This means there is considerable competition for young people. The majority of people in the workforce over the next 10 years are already working. People and Demographics Source: Mid Year Population Estimates Glasgow

The Future - Scotland’s People (9.1)
Over the period , the population of Scotland is forecast to grow by 9% to reach just under £5.8 million by The ageing of the population is forecast to continue however with the highest percentage of growth forecast in those age groups and 75+. Population Projections Source: General Register Office for Scotland Glasgow

The Future – GVA (9.2) Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland
GVA for Scotland is forecast to steadily increase over the period Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment (9.3)
Although employment is forecast to contract between , this will be followed by growth from In 2024, this would be equivalent to just under 47,500 additional jobs in the economy compared to levels. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment by Industry (9.4)
Not all industrial sectors will fare the same in terms of employment growth. It is forecast that there will be growth in Construction, Professional, scientific and technical activities and Administrative and Support Services whereas there will be a major decline in Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying and Public sector jobs. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Total Jobs Requirement (9.5)
Although understanding growth is important, a crucial part of skills planning is being able to understand the likely jobs that will arise as a result of both expansion demand (growth/contraction) and also replacement demand (churn in the labour market). Total jobs forecast to be filled in the period is 980,600 with most of these arising due to replacement demand and a very small proportion (c.26.5k) arising from growth. Looking Forward – Total Jobs requirement Total jobs requirement from Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Qualifications (9.6)
Based on the total jobs requirement for , the forecast for qualifications required shows that the vast majority of requirement is for people qualified at higher level - SCQF7 and above. Only a small proportion of opportunities will be available for people with no-low qualifications. Looking Forward - Qualifications Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

4. Tayside in Context In this section:
The context within which a region operates plays a huge part in explaining a region’s performance. Historical factors, the composition of the industrial sector, geographic location, image and demographics are all at play. It is important to provide the regional context before presenting demand and skills supply data. In this section: Tayside’s contribution to Scotland’s economy Key sectoral characteristics Key labour market performance Deprivation and living standards Earnings and Commuting Patterns Glasgow

Tayside in Context (1) The Region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy
The Tayside region is a mixed urban and rural economy which generates around 7% of the total output of Scotland as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. The region’s proportion of the Scotland total GVA slipped back following the global economic downturn but has since started to recover with strong output increases in 2013 and Total GVA in 2014 (latest data) was £8,096m in real prices. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy Total GVA in the region and the region’s share of total Scotland GVA Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Tayside in Context (2) The human health and social work sector is the largest contributor to GVA in Tayside, 12% of the total, partly reflecting a slightly weaker private sector base. The economy remains quite traditional, with manufacturing the next largest contributor of GVA, 11%. There is a weaker professional, business and financial services sector in Tayside than elsewhere. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Industrial Structure of the Region (GVA by sector) 2014 Total GVA (£m) at 2013 prices Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Glasgow

Tayside in Context (3) Key Labour Market Performance
There were 173,000 employed in Tayside in These are people employed in VAT or PAYE-registered businesses and so excludes those who are self-employed and work for smaller firms. Total employment had been increasing in the years to 2013 and 2014, but the recent fall in employment reflects the fragility of the recovery. See Section 7 on Where are the Jobs and Section 9 on the Labour Market. Key Labour Market Performance Employment change in the Region, Scotland and Great Britain Source: Business Register Employment Survey Employment change in the Region, Scotland and Great Britain Glasgow

Tayside in Context (4) Deprivation and Living Standards
There remain areas of deprivation within the region, and many suffer multiple disadvantages including exclusion from the labour market. The number of datazones in the most 10% deprived in Scotland had fallen in the 2012 data, but this has since risen again in 2016, and there is a need to create more and better quality jobs in the region. For more information see Section 7 on the Labour Market. Average household incomes are much higher in Angus and in Perth and Kinross than they are in the City of Dundee. Deprivation and Living Standards Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: Scottish Household Survey Glasgow

Tayside in Context (5) Commuting Flows
The Tayside region comprises Angus, the City of Dundee and Perth and Kinross. Commuting into Dundee for employment is commonplace from Perth and Kinross in particular. Higher proportions of those in Dundee and in Angus work in their home area. More information is at Section 8: The People of the Glasgow region. Commuting Flows At the time of the last Census, 30% of those in Perth and Kinross and in employment commuted to other parts of the region, mainly Dundee. The proportion working elsewhere in the region was much lower (at 10%) for those in Angus and Dundee. Source: 2011 Census Glasgow

5. Tayside: Economic Performance
The economic performance of the region is a critical driver of the demand for skills. Successful businesses need high levels of productivity, with skills an important component of this, although not the only one, particularly as business processes become more mechanised. Economic performance is measured using Gross Value Added per worker as the best measure of productivity. In this section: Total GVA and GVA growth rates GVA per employee (productivity) GVA per employee by sector Forecast GVA growth Glasgow

Economic Performance (1)
Total GVA in the Tayside region increased strongly in 2013 and 2014, at rates above the Scotland average. This followed contraction in output each year between 2008 and 2012 as Tayside felt the effects of the recession strongly. The strong recent GVA growth has returned the region to pre-recession levels of output. It remains to be seen whether the disappointing job losses in 2015 will negatively affect GVA in the region when new data becomes available. Total GVA in Tayside( ) Source: Oxford Economics Total GVA £m at 2013 prices 2004 £18,850 6.3% 4.1% 2005 £20,035 -0.7% 3.7% 2006 £19,897 -0.4% 1.7% 2007 £19,824 1.3% 2008 £20,075 -2.0% -3.6% 2009 £19,676 -4.3% 2010 £18,837 2.0% 1.8% 2011 £19,208 -0.6% -0.2% 2012 £19,097 2.9% 2.6% 2013 £19,647 6.4% 4.3% 2014 £20,914 3.5% 2.8% Glasgow

GVA per worker is a proxy measure for productivity. It describes the region’s output in relation to the numbers in employment. This is heavily influenced by the sector composition of the regional economy. Sectors such as manufacturing and high value added services such as financial and professional services are typically more productive than others. The City of Dundee has higher GVA per worker than the rest of the region, increasing in line with the Scotland average. GVA per worker is lower (but increasing) in Perth and Kinross, and lowest in Angus, reflecting the dominance of low paid and low value sectors in this part of the region. GVA Per Employee (Productivity) Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Recent GVA output growth is forecast to continue in the Tayside region, at a rate just slightly slower than the Scotland average. Growth of 14.7% is forecast 2015 to 2024, compared to 15.9% for Scotland. Tayside’s GVA is therefore forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.5% between 2015 and 2024, 0.2 percentage points below the Scottish average of 1.7%. Uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU has dampened near-term growth prospects. GVA Output Growth to 2024 Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Sectorally, around 70% of GVA growth in Tayside region will be provided by private services with the largest contributions from wholesale and retail trade, real estate and health and social work. Information and communication is expected to enjoy the fastest rate of growth (average 3.4% per year), albeit from a low base in the region, followed closely by professional scientific and technical services (3.3% per year) which are expected to be a strong contributor to GVA growth, and administrative and support services (3.1% per year). Forecast Output Growth by Sector Tayside GVA – contribution of sector (%) to forecast GVA growth Glasgow

6. Tayside: Business Base
The business base of the region is a strong determinant of the economic performance described in the previous section. Successful businesses need skilled and effective employees. This section presents an analysis of the business base by its industrial sector composition and other characteristics. In this section: Total number of businesses and growth rates Business base by sector Growth Sector Businesses Business base by size Business density Business birth, death and survival rates Self employment Glasgow

Business Base (1) There were 13,115 are VAT and PAYE registered businesses in the Tayside region in The growth rate from 2014 to 2015 in the region was 7.9% compared to 7.3% for Scotland. The number of businesses has increased annually from 2012, although consistently just below the Scotland rate of increase. Total Number of Businesses and Growth Rates Number of businesses by year from 2010 – and growth rate comparators Source: UK Business Counts Change in number of business Glasgow

Business Base (2) Business Base by Sector, 2015
The greatest proportion of businesses are in the professional, scientific and technical sector, 15%, although the proportion is lower than for Scotland (19%) or the UK (18%). 13% of businesses are in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, higher than the 10% share across Scotland, reflecting the rurality of Angus and parts of Perth and Kinross. Construction and tourism-related businesses (accommodation and food services) are also well represented. Business Base by Sector, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (3) Growth Sectors
The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy identifies six growth sectors, detailed below, where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage. A greater proportion of Tayside region growth sector businesses are in food and drink (28% versus 23%) and in sustainable tourism (21% versus19%). There are also proportionately more energy companies. Growth Sectors Number of businesses by growth sector 2015 – and proportion of all growth sector businesses Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Growth sector businesses as a proportion of all business, 2015 Although increasing to 45%, the proportion of all businesses that are in growth sector remains slightly below the Scotland average of 46%. Glasgow

Business Base (4) Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013
Although a smaller sector in the region in terms of numbers of businesses, the financial and business services is the greatest contributor to growth sector GVA within the region, followed by sustainable tourism. Energy (include renewables) and creative industries are also contributors to growth sector GVA. Although there is a higher proportion of food and drink companies in Tayside, their contribute relatively little in GVA terns. Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013 Source: Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Total GVA (£m) at basic prices of Scottish Government Growth Sectors by sector, 2013 Some figures are supressed due to data being disclosive Growth sector total GVA as a % of all Growth Sector GVA, 2013 Glasgow

Business Base (5) Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015
Tayside has a larger proportion of small businesses employing between 10 and 49 than the Scotland and UK averages. The remainder of the business base profile is similar to the Scotland and UK base where the vast majority of businesses are micro-businesses employing fewer than 10. Business density in the Tayside region is 316 per 10,000 compared to 313 per 10,000 in Scotland. Given that this number is inflated with those self-employed in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, one would expect business density to be higher. Creating more businesses should be a regional priority. Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 Number of businesses by employee sizeband and by proportion of all businesses, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (6) Business survival rates in the Tayside region are slightly higher than for Scotland and Great Britain. In all, 50% of businesses starting in 2010 had survived until 2014 in the region, compared to 48% in both Scotland and Great Britain. However, the business birth rate increased strongly in 2013 and 2014, although at 37 start-ups per 10,000 residents the rate still lags behind the Scotland rate of 40 per 10,000. Business Birth and Death Rates ( ) and Survival Rates ( ) Note: A business is deemed to have survived if still active 5 years after birth. Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-year Population Estimates Glasgow

Business Base (7) Self Employment
Self-employment rates in the Tayside region in the last couple of years have risen above the Scotland rate and in 2015 stood at 11.9% compared to 10.8% across the country. Pre-recession, self-employment rates were consistently above the Scotland average, but rates fell below the national average between 2011 and 2013. Self Employment Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec each year Glasgow

7. Tayside: Where are the Jobs?
Analysing the employment base of the region provides important information on the nature and functioning of the labour market. There have been significant occupational shifts in Scotland, reflected in changes in the Tayside region, where higher skilled occupation employment continues to increase. There has been jobs recovery since the recession, but not all of these have been good quality jobs. In this section: Total employment and rate of change Employment by sector and change over time Sectoral specialism Employment by occupation and change Non standard jobs – part time and non permanent Resident and workplace earnings Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (1) Total Employment and Change 2009-2015
There were 173,000 employees in VAT and PAYE registered businesses in the Tayside region in The loss of 1,200 jobs from 2014 is disappointing following above Scotland average growth in 2013 and The number of employees in employment remained largely unchanged in 2015 across Scotland. The job losses in Tayside represent a 1% fall in employment and have been most pronounced in agriculture, forestry and fishing (-500 jobs), construction (-900 jobs) and retail (-1,100). By contrast some sectors have grown, including accommodation and food services (+2,300 jobs). Total Employment and Change Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (2) Employment by sector provides important information on the industrial composition of the regional economy. Employment in the health sector comprises the largest share of employment (18%), a greater proportion than Scotland (16%). Although there have been job losses in the retail sector in the last year, this is still the second largest sector, employing 12% of the total. With 17,900 jobs the accommodation and food services sector is large, 10% of employment, and growing. Employment by Sector and proportion of Total Employment 2015 The Tayside region has a lower proportion of jobs in the professional, scientific and technical sector (5%, compared to 7% across Scotland) and this is typically a higher value added services sector, and in business administration and financial services. There were modest job losses in these sectors in The creative industries (arts and related) sector accounts for a greater proportion of total employment than for Scotland as a whole (5%, versus 4%), unchanged from 2014. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (3) Sector Specialisms
Marrying employment growth trends by sector with the size and concentration of the sector in a region can provide important information on the dynamics of the labour market. Concentration of a sector is the extent to which employment in the sector is above (or below) sector concentration at the Scotland level. Sector Specialisms Sectors above the horizontal line are more concentrated in the region than in Scotland, those below the line less so. Sectors to the right of the vertical line are larger in employment terms than five years ago, to the left less so. Larger bubbles reflect higher sector employment. The large and concentrated health sector is illustrated right. Although smaller the education sector is concentrated and has grown in size in the last five years. The financial and insurance sector is less concentrated and has declined in size in the last five years. Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (4) Employment by Occupation (2015)
The occupational profile of the region is important because occupation is often linked to skills requirements. In Scotland and the rest of Great Britain, there has been a steady and continuing shift to more employment in professional occupations. The Tayside region demonstrates this transition although to a lesser extent than some other regions. 17% are now employed in professional occupations, compared to 20% in Scotland and Great Britain. Elementary occupations comprise 13% of all jobs, compared to 11% in Scotland, and many of these are low paid jobs in rural areas. Skilled trades (13% versus 11%) and caring and related occupations (11% versus 10%) are more concentrated than across Scotland. Employment by Occupation (2015) Change Over Time Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (5) Part Time Employment 2005-2015
Just over a quarter (27%) of those in employment work part time and this is a higher proportion than for Scotland and Great Britain. More jobs in 2012 and 2013 were part time jobs, consistent with the fact that more of the jobs created in the economic recovery have been part time jobs. There are also 5.8% in non-permanent employment, a higher percentage than nationally (5.4%). Nationally, 2.2% are employed on zero hours contracts. Part Time Employment Non-Permanent Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey Non-permanent employment is the proportion of all of those of working age in employment types such as fixed- term contracts, temporary agency, casual or seasonal work. The increase in non-permanent employment reflects the changing nature of employment. Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (6) Some sectors are typically better paid than others, and the industrial base of the region is often an indicator of average wage levels. The composition of the industrial base within a region also affects workplace pay levels. Average gross weekly workplace earnings in Dundee City are £494 for all workers, just above the Scotland average of £492. Jobs in the remainder of the region pay significantly less, particularly those in Angus which average just £401 in comparison. Average earnings based on where people live show a different pattern, with those in Perth and Kinross slightly above average, and those living in Angus and Dundee City earning well below the average. Average Weekly Workplace and Residence-based Earnings, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Glasgow

8. Tayside: Its People In this section: Population growth
The demographic characteristics of a region are extremely important in determining current and future demand for skills. The age profile of the population, the number of young people and elderly, the increasing proportion of retirees, are all contributory factors. The movement of people within a region, and into and out of a region, also affect the labour market and the supply of skills available to employers. In this section: Population growth Population profile Population projections Net migration Travel to work data Glasgow

People (1) Population Change Over Time
Tayside’s population has grown faster than the Scotland average over the 10 years 2005 to 2015, although both lag behind the rate of growth in Great Britain of 7.8%. The population of Tayside increased in line with the Scotland rate in the last year( ), by+0.5 Population Change Over Time Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Year Tayside Scotland 2005 393,000 5,110,200 2006 395,260 5,133,100 2007 398,380 5,170,000 2008 401,910 5,202,900 2009 404,370 5,231,900 2010 407,070 5,262,200 2011 410,250 5,299,900 2012 411,740 5,313,600 2013 412,160 5,327,700 2014 413,800 5,347,600 2015 415,040 5,373,000 Change 22,040 262,800 % Change 6% 5% Glasgow

People (2) Age profile of the Region
The Tayside region has a varied age profile. There has been higher growth of the age band since (+19%, 8,300) compared to Scotland ( +12%.) Tayside has however seen a higher decline in the age band than Scotland (-19% versus -16%) and has also seen lower growth of the 65+ age band (+17%, 12,500) than Scotland (+18%). Overall, the working age population of the region increased by 11,400 over the 10 years to 2015. Age profile of the Region Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (3) Population Projections (2012-2037)
Source: National Records of Scotland Tayside’s population is projected to grow more quickly than in Scotland as a whole to 2037 (+13% compared to +8%). The working age population is also projected to grow compared to a national fall (+3% compared to -4%). Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population is projected to become older, although less markedly than other areas. Year Tayside Scotland 2014 415,231 5,346,120 2015 417,263 5,365,420 2016 419,494 5,385,719 2017 421,821 5,406,997 2018 424,207 5,429,012 2019 426,663 5,451,660 2020 429,177 5,474,391 2021 431,720 5,497,079 2022 434,282 5,519,588 2023 436,855 5,541,816 2024 439,442 5,563,670 2025 442,027 5,585,040 2026 444,608 5,605,814 2027 447,137 5,625,892 2028 449,628 5,645,150 2029 452,069 5,663,541 2030 454,463 5,681,121 2031 456,799 5,697,808 2032 459,082 5,713,523 2033 461,300 5,728,318 2034 463,448 5,742,297 2035 465,539 5,755,558 2036 467,587 5,768,217 2037 469,606 5,780,371 Change 54,375 434,251 % Change 13% 8% Glasgow

People (4) Net Migration
There has been declining net migration into the Tayside region in recent years, although this has improved in 2013/ /15. Net migration decreased 2010/11 and 2012/13, from 3,368 to 799. it has since recovered slightly in 2014/15, to 2,009. The age band had high net migration (470) in the year 2014/2015, partly reflecting the region’s varied age profile and its attractiveness as a place to live, work and study. Net Migration Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (5) Travel to Work (2011 Census)
There are low levels of out-commuting in Tayside, with 10% of employed residents working outside Tayside. Dundee City is the most self-contained labour market, with 84% of those employed working locally. Angus has the smallest proportion working within their home area (60%) and the largest commuting to other parts of Tayside (29%). Travel to Work (2011 Census) Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number
People (6) The workplace population of Dundee City at the time of the last Census was 66,446, and of these workers, 67% were resident in the city (43,866). A smaller number of Dundee City workers were commuting from elsewhere in Scotland into the city (22,384). Overall, there was a net inflow of workers to Dundee City of over 14,00. By contrast, more than 10,000 workers in Angus and nearly 3,000 in Perth and Kinross who were commuting out of their local authority area to work. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Note: Not currently available in the data matrix Council area of workplace Total workplace population Lives and works in the area Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number Net flow of workers Works in the area but lives elsewhere in Scotland Works in the area but lives in the rest of UK Lives in the area but works elsewhere in Scotland Lives in the area but works in the rest of the UK Within Scotland From the rest of the UK Total Angus 31,700 25,476 5,125 1,099 16,900 263 -11,775 836 -10,939 Dundee City 66,446 43,866 22,384 196 7,832 233 14,552 -37 14,515 Perth and Kinross 51,652 41,805 9,071 776 12,264 431 -3,193 345 -2,848 Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

9. Tayside: Labour Market
The functioning of the labour market is influenced by labour market participation. Those unemployed or economically inactive will not be directly contributing to the economic success of the region, although their situation may be temporary, or indeed those inactive may be learning and studying and be a future contributor to the region. In this section: Economic activity Qualifications Participation Unemployment Glasgow

Labour Market (1) Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates
Tayside’s economic activity and inactivity rates have remained relatively stable between 2005 and 2015, although economic activity decreased (to 75%) and inactivity increased (to 25%) in 2012, although by 2015 both rates had recovered to 77% and 23% respectively. Scotland’s rates have remained stable throughout, staying at 77-78% and 22-23% respectively. Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (2) Qualifications
The highest level qualifications of the resident working age population is a useful barometer of skills attainment levels. There remains a cohort in regional economies with no formal qualifications which used to be associated with older workers. Jobs increasingly require higher levels of qualification, including so-called entry level jobs. Tayside has a slightly less qualified working age population, with 42% qualified to SCQF Level 7-12, compared to 43% for Scotland. The proportion of the region with no qualifications is in line with the Scotland average of 9%. Qualifications Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (3) Participation
The Participation Measure is a new measure which provides the ability to identify the status of the wider cohort – not just those who have left school. Participation of young people aged in Tayside was in above the Scottish rate of 90%. Participation Source: Skills Development Scotland Tayside Scotland Number % Total Cohort (16-19) 16,729 Participating (16-19) 15,165 91% 90% Education 11,887 71% Employment 2,927 17% Other Training & Development 351 2% Not Participating (16-19) 807 5% 4% Unemployed Seeking 498 3% Unemployed not Seeking 309 1% Unconfirmed Status (16-19) 757 6% Glasgow

Labour Market (4) The way unemployment is measured is changing with the introduction of Universal Credit. As such, the data is regarded as ‘experimental’ and care is needed when comparing to previous data (all regions have recorded a fall in claimant count unemployment under the new measure). Unemployment – Claimant Count (includes Universal Credit) – experimental measure Source: Job Seekers Allowance Year Tayside Scotland Great Britain May 2005 1,065 12,760 115,375 May 2006 1,025 13,265 141,970 May 2007 12,490 145,310 May 2008 545 7,825 99,735 May 2009 650 10,320 123,545 May 2010 1,120 20,870 252,170 May 2011 1,110 20,340 203,195 May 2012 2,585 35,725 378,480 May 2013 2,845 38,090 410,710 May 2014 2,180 29,470 310,865 May 2015 1,520 19,145 197,275 May 2016 1,335 16,515 158,520 Glasgow

10. Tayside: Skills Challenges
Employers have specific skills needs, either amongst those they are seeking to recruit, or amongst those in their existing workforce. This are not always available. Skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) relate to the skills shortages amongst those being recruited, and skills gaps shortages relate to skills deficiencies within the existing workforce. The 2015 UKCES Employer Survey provides timely data in relation to these and other employer issues. In this section: Skills shortages Skills gaps Recruitment activity Skills under-utilisation Glasgow

Skills Challenges (1) Skills Shortages
The UKCES Employer Survey 2015 data indicates that across Tayside skills shortage vacancies are in line with Scotland at 0.8% of the total workforce, compared to 0.8% in Scotland as a whole . Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages account for 1.2% of the workforce, compared to 1.1% in Scotland as a whole. In all, 6% of establishments report at least one hard to fill vacancy in Tayside, compared to 8% across Scotland. Skills Shortages Source: UKCES Tayside Scotland Hard to fill vacancies as % of workforce 1.2% 1.1% Skills shortage vacancies as % of workforce 0.8% Glasgow

Skills Challenges(2) Skills Gaps
Skills gaps are those in employment that are regarded by employers are lacking some of the skills required for their job. Around 6% of the workforce in Tayside have skills gaps compared to 5% nationally and employers in Tayside are more likely to report skills gaps than the Scottish average. Skills gaps particularly prevalent in Elementary staff in Tayside 69% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally) Skills Gaps Source: UKCES Glasgow

Skills Challenges (3) Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation
51% of Tayside businesses had recruited staff over the past year prior to the 2015 UKCES survey, below with the national average. The number of vacancies is also below the Scottish average with 16% of employers in Tayside with at least one vacancy. In addition, 34% of employers in Tayside have staff who are under-utilised, which is above the national average. Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation Source: UKCES Glasgow

11. Tayside: Schools Data In this section: School roll numbers
The destination of those leaving school has a clear bearing on the labour market, whether this is for employment, education and training, or none of these. The numbers leaving school and projected school roll numbers are also important. Those at school will form a major part of the future labour market. In this section: School roll numbers School roll projections School leaver destinations Glasgow

Schools Data (1) Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group
There are 21,131 secondary school pupils in Tayside in Of this, there are slightly higher proportions of S1 and S3 pupils (19% v 18%) in Tayside than Scotland, respectively. There are slightly lower proportions of S5 (15% v 16%) and S6 pupils (11% v 12%) in Tayside than in Scotland. Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census Tayside Scotland S1 3,987 50,813 S2 3,767 49,514 S3 3,942 50,197 S4 3,812 51,078 S5 3,275 45,817 S6 2,348 33,936 Total Pupils 21,131 281,355 Glasgow

Schools Data (2) Secondary School Roll Number Projections
Based on the latest available projections (2012), secondary school roll numbers are projected to decline by 2% to 2018, in line with Scotland Secondary School Roll Number Projections Source: Scottish Government Pupil Projections Tayside Scotland 2014 21,000 282,800 2015 20,800 278,000 2016 20,600 275,300 2017 275,100 2018 20,500 277,900 Glasgow

Schools Data (3) School Leaver Destinations
Between 2013/14 and 2014/15, Tayside has seen a one percent decrease in school leavers entering a positive destination, with Tayside in line with the Scotland rate. There are however lower proportions of leavers entering Higher Education than in Scotland (35% v. 37%) and the proportion of Tayside leavers entering Higher Education has fallen by one percentage point between 2013/14 and 2014/15. School Leaver Destinations Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset 2013/14 2014/15 Tayside Scotland Positive Destination 93% 92% Higher Education 36% 39% 35% 37% Further Education 29% 24% 27% 23% Training 2% 3% Employment 25% 28% Voluntary Work 0% 1% Activity Agreement Unemployed Seeking 5% 7% 6% Unemployed Non-Seeking Unknown N/A Glasgow

12. Tayside: Skills Provision
There is a wide variety of skills and learning provision available which is designed to meet the future skills needs of the economy. Amongst this is the provision commissioned by Skills Development Scotland, notably via the Apprenticeship family of products (Modern Apprenticeships, Foundation Apprenticeships and Graduate Level Apprenticeships) and the Employability Fund and delivered by approved training providers including Colleges, Universities and Private training providers. In this section: Modern Apprenticeships by participant characteristic and framework grouping Foundation Apprenticeships Graduate Level Apprenticeships Employability Fund and Certificate of Work Readiness starts Glasgow

Skills Provision (1) MA Total Number of Starts
Modern Apprenticeships (MA) help employers to develop their workforce by training new and existing employees. For individuals, an MA lets them earn a wage while gaining a qualification. In 2015/16 Tayside had the highest uptake of MAs from 2010/11 – 2015/16 and the proportion of the national uptake rose to 9%. In 2015/16, the age of participants in Tayside followed within 1% of the national trend with the largest proportion (49%) in the age group. MA Total Number of Starts MA Starts 2015/16, by Age Glasgow

Skills Provision (2) MA Starts by Gender 2010-2016
The gender split in MA uptake in Tayside is broadly similar to the national picture with a trend over the period 2010/ /16 of the proportion of male participation in MAs increasing and the female proportion decreasing. More information on gender split in different frameworks can be found in Skills Provision (4). In 2015/16 the uptake of MA s in Tayside by disabled participants, 5%, was greater than that of Scotland, 4%, as a whole but considerably less than the 19% of working age population in Scotland with a disability. MA Starts by Gender MA Starts by Disability Glasgow

Skills Provision (3) MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16
The uptake of MAs in Tayside shows a similar ethnic mix to Scotland overall. 1.7% of participants in Tayside come from a Black Minority and Ethnic(BME) background compared to 1.6% across the country. Compared to the overall BME working population in Scotland of 3.1% (APS 2014), this shows MA uptake from BME participants could be increased. MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16

Skills Provision (4) In 2015/16 in Tayside the most popular MA framework groups were: Hospitality & Tourism; Sport, Health & Social Care; and Construction. Among the most gender segregated groups were Construction (99% male), and Personal Services (94% female). Groups with the greatest gender parity were Management (51% female, 49% male), Finance (51% male, 49% female) and Hospitality & Tourism (56% female, 44% male). Modern Apprenticeship Starts by Framework Group and Gender Note: figures rounded to the nearest 5, figures less than 5 have suppressed. Percentages have been calculated on unrounded figures. Glasgow

Skills Provision (5) MA Achievement Rates 2010/11- 2015/16
MA achievement rates give the proportion of MA starts who completed their apprenticeship: gaining their target qualification and reaching work-based learning aims. Achievement rates in Tayside have been consistently above the average rates for Scotland during the reporting period. In 2015/16, in Tayside, 78% of candidates successfully completed their MA. This was above the national achievement rate, 76%, for the same year and a four percentage point increase from 2014/15. MA Achievement Rates 2010/ /16 Glasgow

Skills Provision (6) Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) were developed to help school pupils gain work experience and access work-based learning. S4 and S5 students spend time at college or with a local employer, and complete the FA alongside other subjects like National 5s and Highers. The qualification takes two years and can lead to employment or further study at college or university. FAs were piloted in some regions in 2014 and participation has grown over the past three years. The data shows uptake from the past two years and anticipated uptake for 2016/18. Foundation Apprenticeships, National Uptake 2014/ /18 Foundation Apprenticeships In 2016/18, the national uptake of FLA is expected to be over 300. In 2016/18 there are eight frameworks available, linked to six key sectors: Business Skills, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Financial Services, IT Hardware, IT Software, Social Services CYP, Social Services & Healthcare SDS aims to make FLA part of every secondary school’s offer by 2020. Glasgow

Skills Provision (7) Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development
Graduate Level Apprenticeships (GLAs) provide work-based learning opportunities up to Master’s degree level for employees. They have been created in partnership with industry and the further and higher education sector. Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development GLAs are currently available in: ICT/Digital: Software Development ICT/Digital: IT Management for Business Engineering: manufacturing and Design Civil Engineering Over the course of 2017 the intention is to expand the offer to include: Business and Management SCQF Level 10 Engineering (Instrumentation, Measurement and Control SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Cyber Security SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Digital Media SCQF Level 10) Life Sciences SCQF Level 10 Children and Young People SCQF Level 8 Glasgow

Skills Provision (8) The Employability Fund (EF) supports locally delivered services designed to encourage unemployed people to move towards work. SDS administers EF on behalf of Scottish Government.* The uptake of EF starts in Tayside represents almost 7% of the total participants in Scotland. Participation from women in Tayside (43%) was proportionally significantly higher than in Scotland as a whole (36%). Employability Fund Starts 2015/16, Total and by Gender *All data provided relates only to SDS funded activity. As other entities administer EF programme the data will not reflect total participation Glasgow

Skills Provision (9) The Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) addresses the challenge for young people of gaining work experience and workplace skills when entering the labour market. The CWR provides young people with 190 hours of work experience and an assessment from an employer to prove to future employers they have established workplace competencies. In 2015/16, 5% of the total individual uptake of CWR and 6% of the employers involved in the scheme were located in Tayside. Certificate of Work Readiness 2015/16, Starts and Employers Glasgow

13. Tayside: College Activity
Colleges provide a range of opportunities for all students, regardless of prior achievement, from access courses to degree level qualifications and the Apprenticeship Family to meet national, regional and local economic needs. Qualifications include National 4 & 5s, NQ, HNC, HND and Degrees. Colleges also provide qualifications towards Foundation and Modern Apprenticeships. Data in this section relates to enrolments at Dundee and Angus College and Perth College UHI and was provided by Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: College activity by age and gender Travel to study: location of students College activity by subject Gaelic language activity College activity: FE/HE Outcomes and destinations Glasgow

College Activity (1) 2015/16 college enrolments
In 2015/16, there were 24,315 college enrolments at colleges in Tayside, 9% of all enrolments across Scotland. Most enrolments were on part-time courses, similar to the trend nationally. Both regionally and nationally, the 25+ group was the largest overall in terms of enrolments. This age group accounted for 26% of full-time enrolments (24% nationally) and 45% of part-time enrolments (50% nationally). This suggests that college activity is characterised by older students on part-time courses and younger students on full-time courses. 2015/16 college enrolments 2015/16 college enrolments by age Note: Unless otherwise stated all data shows total college enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (2) 2015/16 college enrolments by gender
Nationally in 2015/16, females (51%) accounted for slightly more enrolments than males (49%). This was also true in Tayside, with a slightly wider gender gap (54% female, 46% male). In terms of home area, the majority of students (63%) came from within Tayside, however there was a significant proportion of enrolments from elsewhere in Scotland (28%) showing Tayside is an attractive educational destination. This is reflective of many factors including specialist provision within the Tayside colleges, public transport links from outlying areas and links to HEIs with specialist subject places i.e. Medicine and Nursing. 2015/16 college enrolments by gender 2015/16 college enrolments by home area Glasgow

College Activity (3) College enrolments by SIMD
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) measure shows that in 2015/16 a lower proportion (10%) of enrolments at colleges in Tayside came from the 10% most deprived areas compared to Scotland as a whole (15%). Compared to colleges across Scotland, colleges located in Tayside had proportionally fewer enrolments in Higher Education (HE) (12% vs. 18%) and more in Further Education (FE) (88% vs. 82%). However this proportion is not fully reflective of activity in the region as HE data from Perth College UHI is collected differently and not included in this total.* College enrolments by SIMD College enrolments by HE/FE Note: Further Education (FE) refers to courses leading to qualifications up to SCQF level 7. Higher Education (HE) refers to courses at SCQF level 7 and above. * Data from Perth College UHI at HE level is included in the Section 14. University Provision Glasgow

College Activity (4) Of the 24,315 enrolments in colleges in Tayside, just under one fifth (19%) were in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects, slightly below the national average. The proportion of full-time and part-time enrolments that were in STEM subjects was broadly similar, 18% and 19% respectively. Nearly a third (32%) of the male enrolments in the college were for a STEM subject, whereas this was much lower for females (7%). Engineering/Technology had the greatest number of enrolments in 2015/16 and accounted for 13% of all STEM enrolments. College enrolments - STEM subject and mode of study Ten largest STEM subject areas by total enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (5) Business, management and admin was the largest subject area in terms of full-time enrolments in Tayside in 2015/16. The most gender segregated subject was Engineering (96% male) and the most gender equal subject was Performing arts (56% female). Across Scotland, Care was the largest subject area by full-time enrolments. College enrolments by full-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (6) In 2015/16, Special programmes had the greatest number of part-time enrolments in Tayside. Special programmes includes courses in self-development, continuing education and courses for disabled people. This subject accounted for almost a fifth (18%) of all part-time enrolments in the region. Gender imbalance was greatest in Engineering (92% male) and Hairdressing (95% female). Computing & ICT was the most gender balanced subject (51% male). College enrolments by part-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (7) Gaelic FE enrolments
Enrolment of students on Gaelic FE courses varies considerably across the country. The Highlands & Islands had the greatest uptake, with enrolments increasing by 14% from 2014/15 to 2015/16. Gaelic uptake across other regions is mixed, with nine regions, including Tayside reporting no of Gaelic college activity. Overall Gaelic enrolments across Scotland increased by 12% from 2014/15 to 2015/16, rising from 1,260 to 1,405. Gaelic FE enrolments Note: Data is institution rather than resident-based Glasgow

College Activity (8) 2015/16 FE student outcomes
In 2015/16, 73% of Tayside FE students successfully completed their course. This was higher than the 66% success rate achieved across Scotland. In terms of destination (2014/15), 18% of Tayside leavers entered employment and 76% of learners progressed onto additional education or training, including higher level study and Modern Apprenticeships. 2015/16 FE student outcomes 2014/15 college destinations Note: Completed partial success indicates that a student completed the course but did not gain the qualification. This also includes students who gained employment before finishing the course or transferred to another course. Glasgow

14. Tayside: University Provision
Scotland has strong university provision with more world-class universities than any other country by head of population. There are five universities in Scotland that are ranked in the world’s top 200 (2015 Times Higher Education rankings). Scotland’s universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In Tayside, the University of Dundee, the University of Abertay and Perth College UHI provide educational opportunities to residents and also attract students to the region. Data in this section was provided by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: Study destination for region’s residents Students numbers within the region by gender, age and home area Subject choice Student graduation by level Student destinations by employment and industry Glasgow

University Provision (1)
There were three Higher Education Institutions (HEI) in Tayside in 2014/15. These were the University of Dundee, the University of Abertay Dundee and Perth College UHI.* The largest institution was the University of Dundee which accounted for the majority (70%) of university students in the region. Students at HEIs in Tayside 2014/15 Note: Unless otherwise stated, data on this and subsequent slides is institution, not resident based and refers to university campuses located in Scotland and excludes study with the Open University Scotland, campuses outside of Scotland and incomplete records. *Only activity from Perth College UHI at HE level is included.

In 2014/15, the number of students at HEIs in Tayside was lower (2.4% decline) than the previous year and comprised 10% of the Scotland total. Across Scotland, university student numbers grew by 1%. The gender split in Tayside was in line with the national average with 58% female and 42% male uptake 2013/14-14/15 total student number 2014/15 HEI students, by gender . Glasgow

In 2014/15, the number of students in the and 25+ age groups were similar with 39% and 38% respectively giving Tayside a slightly older student profile than the national average. HEIs in Tayside attracted a higher proportion of students from with Scotland (68%) and fewer from elsewhere in the UK and outside the UK (31%) than the national average (61% and 37%). 2014/15 university students, by age 2014/15 university students, by home area Glasgow

In 2014/15, residents of Tayside studied at a number of HEIs across Scotland. Within the top five were two local institutions – the University of Dundee and the University of Abertay Dundee, which accounted for over half of all students from the region. The Open University was also a popular choice for Tayside residents and students from the region represented 4% of the total Open University uptake across Scotland (17,075). Top 5 universities attended by Tayside residents 2014/15

In 2014/15, the most frequently studied subject group was Subjects Allied to Medicine (23% of total). Other popular subjects were Biological Sciences and Creative Arts and Design. These three subjects had a greater uptake in Tayside than nationally which may reflect the region’s economic performance in the growth sectors life sciences and creative industries as seen in Section 6. Business Base. 2014/15 total enrolment of students at HE Institutions, by subject Glasgow

In 2014/15, 74% of students who studied at Tayside universities, graduated with a first degree. The remaining 26% achieved a postgraduate qualification. This differed to the national trend with 65% of all Scottish graduates completing a first degree and 35% completing a postgraduate course. 2014/15 university graduates by level of study Glasgow

Data on this and the following two slides was provided by the HESA Graduate Destinations Survey which surveys a sample of HEI graduates six months after leaving university. In 2014/15, the majority of graduates from Tayside universities entered full-time work (60%). Of those surveyed 5% were unemployed, which was inline with the national trend 2014/15 university graduates by employment status Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from Tayside universities went on to work in a range of occupations. The largest percentage (43%) were engaged as professionals and the smallest percentage (0.1%) as operatives. Proportionally fewer graduates from HEIs in Tayside went to work in higher level occupations compared to the trend nationally. 2014/15 university graduates by occupation Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from Tayside universities worked in a wide range of industries. The largest group entered the health and social work sector (20%), followed by education (16%) and professional, scientific and technical activities (7%). This reflects the evidence seen in Section 7. Where Are the Jobs which shows Health as the largest employing sector in the region. 2014/15 university graduates, employment by industry Glasgow

15. Tayside: Jobs and skills changes
This section will outline forecasted changes in employment from 2015 to 2024, and the nature of changing demand for qualifications in specific occupational areas. It will also consider longer term changes in the labour market and future expansion and replacement employment demand. In this section: Forecasts demand for jobs and how these may change Changing occupational and qualification demand Long-term changes in the labour market Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) growth is forecast to marginally lag behind Scotland, rising by 0.1% per year on average over the period. Compared with 0.2% for Scotland as a whole. Growth at this pace equates to 700 additional jobs in the area by Sectorally, administrative & support activities and construction are expected to be the fastest growing sectors in absolute terms, increasing by 1,100 jobs and 900 jobs by 2024 respectively. Professional, scientific & technical activities is also expected to experience significant growth, each creating 800 jobs by In contrast, significant job losses are expected in manufacturing and public administration & defence (1,200 jobs each) along with agriculture and education (500 jobs each). Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Total Employment Growth Tayside Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), No title for both charts Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

In line with the flat employment forecast over the period, the occupational groupings show relatively small change. Some growth is expected in caring, leisure and other service occupations (300 people) along with elementary (200 people) and professional and skilled trades occupations (100 people each). Declines are expected in administrative and secretarial occupations (400 people) along with process, plant and machine operatives (300 people). Associate professional and technical occupations (200 people) along with managers, directors and senior officials and sales and customer service occupations are also expected to see some loss of jobs (100 people each). Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand Tayside Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics ‘000s Glasgow

The majority of openings in Tayside region over the forecast period, will require individuals with higher level qualifications in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for over half of the 75,800 openings expected to be created between 2016 and The remaining opportunities will mainly be for individuals qualified to SCQF levels 5-6, accounting for 34% of the total requirement and driven exclusively by replacement demand. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level. Forecast employment change by Qualification ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Replacement demand will result in 75,000 openings within Tayside region over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 600 openings between However together with replacement demand, will result in 75,600 openings over this period. The total requirement for workers is expected to be largest for professional occupations, followed by elementary occupations. Total requirement for these occupations is primarily driven by replacement demand. Sales occupations is also forecast to experience a large total requirement over the period to 2024. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

16. Tayside: What are the key implications?
The Regional Skills Assessments provide the national policy context, the national economic picture and trends and the regional position. The regional perspective covers in some depth the demand for skills, current and forecast, as well as skills activity in place to meet these needs. There is a wide range of data, with further data available in the accompanying data matrix. This final section draws out some of the key implications for improving the performance of labour markets. These are not solutions for partners, but rather implications from the analysis upon which skills investment planning decisions can be made. In this section: Review of the demand for skills Review of current skills activity to meet need Key implications for skills investment planning and recommended focus for action Glasgow

Tayside: Headline Summary (1)
. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics The Tayside region lost 1,200 jobs in 2015 following above Scotland average growth in 2013 and The 2015 job losses represent a 1% decrease, when the number of jobs across Scotland remained unchanged. Job losses were most pronounced in agriculture, forestry & fishing (-500 jobs), construction (-900 jobs) and retail (-1,100). There were also some job losses in the higher value added professional, scientific and technical services sector and in business administration and support. At the same time, some sectors have grown, including accommodation and food services, a proxy for tourism jobs (+2,300 jobs). The region remains over-reliant on traditional employment sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, forestry & fishing) and on the public sector. The relatively weak private sector is reflected in the under-representation of professional, scientific and technical services sector, financial services, information and communications and business administration and support. The arts, recreation and other services sector is well represented, above the Scotland average. Glasgow

. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued) There remains an under-representation of those employed in professional occupations. Although the proportion has increased over 10 years, this has been less marked than the Scotland average. A greater proportion than average work in elementary occupations and skilled trades, reflecting the manufacturing base. The region is not homogenous, and there are worker movements within the region, although few commute out of Tayside itself. Flows are strongest out of Angus, where 30% commute to other parts of the region, notably Dundee City. By contrast, the majority of those in work in Dundee City do so in their home area. Average household incomes are far lower in Dundee City than in Perth & Kinross in particular, or Angus. Those that commute into Dundee City do so to access better paid employment. There are also concentrations of deprivation in Dundee City, which increased in number in the 2016 measure. The dispersed nature of rural deprivation masks relative poverty in the region, particularly parts of Angus. The new measure of unemployment including Universal Claimants has shown falling claimants, and this has been the case nationally. The Tayside rate however is no longer below the Scotland average. Slightly fewer are qualified to SCQF 7-12, when demand for these qualifications continues to increase. Glasgow

. Skills Challenges The population has increased over the last 10 yeas, at faster than the Scotland an average, more than 22,000. It is forecast to continue to grow, by 13% compared to 8% for Scotland, more than 50,000. Although there will be an ageing demographic, there are expected to be 3% more of working age. Fewer employers in Tayside report vacancies, including hard-to-fill vacancies, and skill shortage vacancies. However, skills under-utilization is reported a greater proportion. Skills gaps are also a proportionately greater issue in Tayside than across Scotland, notably in elementary occupations. Glasgow

. Skills Activity to Meet Current and Future Demand Work-based learning is critical to meeting skills development needs. There were 2,235 MA Starts in 2015/2016, a 7% increase on the previous year, and the highest number of starts. This is testament to endeavors to increase work-based learning levels in the region. The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – hospitality & tourism, health & social care (with sport), construction, retail & customer service, and administration & related. Engineering & energy accounts for 4% of MAs, although this accounts for 10% of employment in the region. Other services including ICT professionals comprises fewer than 2% of MAs, modest representation given their importance to Scotland’s economy. There is a continuing gender imbalance in many MA frameworks and MAs are still not commonplace in some sectors such as the Creative Industries, despite an active sector in the region. Glasgow

. Future Trends There are expected to be 1,900 more jobs in the region by Employment growth is expected in construction (+1,100), professional, scientific & technical services (+1,000) and administrative & support services (+1,000). Manufacturing is expected to decline (-1,200), as are the public sector services of public administration & defence (-1,400) and education (-600). Replacement demand is expected to generate more than 75,000 openings to More than half of these will be SCQF level 7 and above and close to 90% will be level 5 and above. This reaffirms the need for a strong skills base. The greatest number of openings will be in professional and elementary occupations, as well as sales, care, leisure and other services occupations and skilled trades, the majority of which is replacement demand. Glasgow

Tayside: Key Implications (1)
. Recommended Areas of Focus Increasing the quality of jobs. The most significant recent employment growth has been in services, notably tourism, and the region has lost rather than gained higher value added service jobs in There is a need for Tayside to make a stronger transition to a more knowledge-based economy, and to reduce reliance on low pay and traditional sector jobs. Increase the number of private sector jobs. As part of the above, there is a need to strengthen the private sector employment base, especially in light of forecast job reduction in the sector. Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. There will continue to be extreme competitive pressures in manufacturing, as well as services, that will demand high levels of business innovation and a skilled workforce. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). There are key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where growth and replacement demand is strong, including tourism, administration and skilled trades. Tourism has been a growth sector in Tayside. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors. Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). The health and social care sector is an important sector, and the ageing population in the region will have care needs that will need to be met over time. The specific needs of the manufacturing sector must continue to be met. There will be challenging times ahead for the sector, yet it still contributes a disproportionate amount of output. Engineering & related skills needs will require to be met with fit for purpose provision. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. Employment in the professional services has fallen, and the region needs to make sure there are sufficient skills to meet employer demand where this exists. A need to increase the pool of labour and to reduce inequality. There remain some concentrations of deprivation in the region, and there is a need to ensure that some groups do not become distanced from the labour market, or become entrenched in low pay sectors with limited progression opportunities. A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning a feature of this. Glasgow

Appendix: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Click here to go back to the main presentation: Where are the Jobs (3) - Sector Specialisms

Regional Skills Assessment 2016

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