Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Regional Skills Assessment 2016
Glasgow Region comprising Glasgow City, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire OK Glasgow

Contents Section 1: Introducing the Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Section 2: National Policy Context Section 3: The National Economic and Skills Context Section 4: The Glasgow Region in Context Section 5: Economic Performance of the Glasgow Region Section 6: The Glasgow Region Business Base Section 7: Where are the jobs in the Glasgow Region Section 8: The People of the Glasgow Region Section 9: The Glasgow Region Labour Market Section 10: Skills Challenges in the Glasgow Region Section 11: Schools numbers and destinations in the Region Section 12: Skills Provision in the Glasgow Region Section 13: College Activity Section 14: University Provision Section 15: How are Skills and Jobs Likely to Change? Section 16: What are the key implications for the Region? Glasgow

1. Introducing the RSAs In this section:
What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? What is not covered by the RSAs? Other sources of useful information Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
Regional Skills Assessments provide a coherent evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Their purpose is to: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses. Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills. Support wider public and private investment propositions. Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
RSAs are developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. They cover demand for skills, supply of people and skills, skills provision and skills challenges. ….and include employment and GVA forecasts and trends to help identify future skills needs RSA cover: Regional performance and characteristics Trends over time How does the region compare to Scotland High level implications for skills planning Provide a data matrix to allow further analysis RSAs do not: Answer every question... however can be used alongside data matrix and other national and local intelligence Tell partners what they should do – although RSAs are designed to support making better informed decisions Glasgow

RSA data sources and coverage
The Regional Skills Assessments are underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on 117 social and economic indicators With data at 3 spatial levels: Regional Outcome Agreement areas; City Region Deal; Local Authority – with Scotland and GB/UK comparators where available The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). No primary research is involved. The data matrix is found here: The data matrix including a full user guide is available at: do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments Data Matrix sources include: Annual Population Survey Business Register Employment Survey UKCES Employer Skills Survey UK Business Counts Census Data Scottish Government Growth Sector datasets Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Partner data sources include: SDS Participation Measure data SDS Apprenticeship Family data SE and HIE data on Regional Selective Assistance and Account Managed businesses supported SLAED data on major infrastructure projects Glasgow

Other useful sources and publications
Other useful sources of current and forthcoming information are available. Scottish Government Labour Market Strategy Scottish Government Economic Strategy Sectoral and Regional Skills Investment Plans UKCES Employer Survey data Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Reports RBS Business Monitor Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index Glasgow

2: National Policy Context
In this section: Government Economic Strategy Labour Market Strategy Youth Employment Strategy Skills Planning Model Scotland’s Skills Agencies Enterprise and Skills Review Glasgow

Economic Strategy (1) Scotland’s Economic Strategy (2015) reaffirms the Scottish Government’s commitment to creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. It sets out an overarching framework for achieving the two mutually supportive goals of increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy and prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.

Labour Market Strategy (2)
Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy (2016) sets out for the first time how the labour market and wider social and economic policies interact to drive ambitions for inclusive growth. It provides a framework for the approach to the labour market, and describes the actions that will be taken to deliver the vision. Vision: “A strong labour market that drives inclusive, sustainable economic growth, characterised by growing, competitive businesses, high employment, a skilled population capable of meeting the needs of employers, and where fair work is central to improving the lives of individuals and their families.“ Five priorities: promoting the Fair Work Framework and encouraging responsible business; supporting employability and skills, so that all of our people can participate successfully in the labour market; investing in our people and our infrastructure; fostering innovation including workplace innovation which will help spur job creation; and promoting Scotland internationally to improve the competitiveness of our businesses.

Youth Employment (3) Developing the Young Workforce – Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy (2014) sets out how the Scottish Government will implement the recommendations from the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce, with headline target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021:

Skills Planning Model (4)
Regional Skills Assessments are at the heart of Scotland’s Skills Planning Model by providing an evidence base to understand demand for skills and to influence planning and investment to meet demand.

Scotland’s Skills Agencies (5)
Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council are the two core skills agencies for Scotland. Skills Development Scotland Making Skills Work for Scotland: Employers are better able to recruit the right people with the right skills at the right time Employers have high performing, highly productive, fair and equal workplaces People have the right skills and confidence to secure good work, progress in their careers and achieve their full potential Across all SDS services and programmes, there is increased equality of opportunity SDS is recognised as an employer of choice, an exemplar of fair work, and internationally recognised for excellence, innovation and customer focus Scottish Funding Council, Ambition 2025: Scotland - the Best Place in the World to Learn, to Educate, to Research and to Innovate “Our ambition is that Scotland will be the best place in the world to learn, to educate, to research, and to innovate……with colleges and universities making a major contribution to Scotland’s social, cultural and economic development.” Priority outcomes: High-quality learning and teaching World-leading research Greater innovation in the economy.

Enterprise & Skills Review (6)
Report on Phase One (2016) included a series of recommendations of relevance to skills investment planning “We will align the functions of our skills agencies to better join up how learning and skills are planned and provided to learners and employers.” “We will conduct a comprehensive review of the Learning Journey focused on sustained employment, with significantly enhanced use of labour market information in skills planning at its heart.” “We will review the effectiveness of our investment in learning and skills to ensure we have the right balance of provision across age groups and sectors and maximise its contribution to productivity and inclusive growth.” Next steps; Regional partnerships Digital Enterprise support

3: Scotland’s Economic and Skills Context
In this section: Economic Recession to Recovery Productivity Employment Non Standard Jobs Occupational Change In Work poverty Skills Challenges Scotland’s People Looking to the Future Glasgow

Economic Recession to Recovery (1)
The ‘great recession’ was the longest and deepest recession in the UK since the 1930s both in terms of depth of recession and time to recover GDP. The UK posted the slowest recovery of any advanced economy (aside from Italy and Greece) with recovery only taking hold after pause to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and consumer spending and investment. Scotland’s recession was shallower than the UK. Different sectors had different rates of recovery. Recession and Recovery in Scotland Output Source: Adapted from Fraser of Allander. March 2016 Glasgow

Productivity (2) Productivity in Scotland
Moderated growth in the international economy and Scotland and poor productivity growth presents challenging conditions for many sectors and industries. Productivity in Scotland UK trails G7 advanced economies on productivity by 18 percentage points. Scotland trails UK. UK trails US productivity across all sectors, especially manufacturing. There is evidence that the UK manufacturing productivity in line with France/ Germany. But significant deterioration versus Europe in financial services and private service sector. Productivity improvements have been muted at a Scottish level over the last six years and have fallen behind wages growth. This suggests a weakening of Scotland’s competitive advantage. Fraser of Allander Institute argue that total factor productivity in Scotland is much lower than UK. In the absence of faster Scottish population growth, sustained economic growth will require raising competitiveness. Glasgow

Employment (3) Jobs in Scotland
Total employment in Scotland continued to fall until 2012, but has risen sharply since then. Total employment in was 1.5% greater than in 2009, although this is compared to a 7% increase in the UK. This has been dominated by private sector growth alongside a fall in public sector employment. Jobs in Scotland Employment Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Glasgow

Non Standard Jobs (4) The Rise of Non-Standard Work
Although Scotland is experiencing a growth in total employment since pre-recession times, a large part of this is due to the rise of ‘non standard jobs’ – part time, temporary and self employment. Of the new jobs created since the recovery, 50,000+ have been part time jobs, 35,000+ have been self-employed jobs and more than 13,000 have been temporary jobs. Only 9,000 or so have been full time jobs. The Rise of Non-Standard Work Employment change in Scotland and the UK, 2008 – 2015 Source: Labour Force Survey Glasgow

Occupational Change (5)
The occupational shift has seen a polarisation of employment with a strong bias towards higher skilled occupations. In effect, what we are seeing is an hour glass labour market. This represents significant challenges for progression. Occupational Shifts Source: 2011 Census, Labour Force Survey, Oxford Economics Glasgow

In-Work Poverty (6) Low Pay and In-Work Poverty
Historically, being in work was seen as a way of escaping poverty, however more recently this is not the case for all. In 2014/15, 260,000 people or 55% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, before housing costs (BHC). In 2014/15, 350,000 people or 58% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, after housing costs (AHC). In-work poverty can be a particular challenge for some groups – women, younger people, older workers, those with no qualifications, some ethnic groups, lone parents and people with disabilities. Low Pay and In-Work Poverty In-work poverty (relative poverty AHC) in Scotland: 1998/99 to 2014/15 Number of individuals in poverty in households with at least one adult in employment Source:HBAI dataset, DWP Glasgow

Skills Challenges (7) Current Skills Challenges in Scotland (From Employer Skills Survey 2015) Steep rise in vacancies from 54,000 (2013) to 74,000 (2015) – reflecting higher demand for labour Proportion of establishments reporting Skills Shortage Vacancies in Scotland rose from 3% (2011) to 4% (2013) and 6% (2015) – in line with UK trends Proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps fell to 14% (2015) – same as at UK level Increasing levels of under-employment and under-utilisation of skills – 32% of establishments reported at least one member of staff with both skills and qualifications above the level required for the job Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties are likely to be a permanent feature of the Scottish labour market, particularly where experienced labour is required Along with under-employment and under-utilisation of skills, this will make improving productivity a challenging task Glasgow

Scotland’s People (8) People and Demographics
There have been strong population increases in Scotland, driven by in migration. The population is, however, an ageing one, with changing age demographics. This means there is considerable competition for young people. The majority of people in the workforce over the next 10 years are already working. People and Demographics Source: Mid Year Population Estimates Glasgow

The Future - Scotland’s People (9.1)
Over the period , the population of Scotland is forecast to grow by 9% to reach just under 5.8 million by The ageing of the population is forecast to continue however with the highest percentage of growth forecast in those age groups and 75+. Population Projections Source: General Register Office for Scotland Glasgow

The Future – GVA (9.2) Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland
GVA for Scotland is forecast to steadily increase over the period Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment (9.3)
Although employment is forecast to contract between , this will be followed by growth from In 2024, this would be equivalent to just under 47,500 additional jobs in the economy compared to levels. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment by Industry (9.4)
Not all industrial sectors will fare the same in terms of employment growth. It is forecast that there will be growth in Construction, Professional, scientific and technical activities and Administrative and Support Services whereas there will be a major decline in Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying and Public Sector Jobs. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Total Jobs Requirement (9.5)
Although understanding growth is important, a crucial part of skills planning is being able to understand the likely jobs that will arise as a result of both expansion demand (growth/contraction) and also replacement demand (churn in the labour market). Total jobs forecast to be filled in the period is 980,600 with most of these arising due to replacement demand and a very small proportion (c.26.5k) arising from growth. Looking Forward – Total Jobs requirement Total jobs requirement from Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Qualifications (9.6)
Based on the total jobs requirement for , the forecast for qualifications required shows that the vast majority of requirement is for people qualified at higher level - SCQF7 and above. Only a small proportion of opportunities will be available for people with no or low qualifications. Looking Forward - Qualifications Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

4. Glasgow Region in Context
The context within which a region operates plays a huge part in explaining a region’s performance. Historical factors, the composition of the industrial sector, geographic location, image and demographics are all at play. It is important to provide the regional context before presenting demand and skills supply data. In this section: Glasgow region’s contribution to Scotland’s economy Key sectoral characteristics Key labour market performance Deprivation and living standards Earnings and commuting patterns Glasgow region SIP/Investment Glasgow

Glasgow region in Context (1)
The Glasgow region is a major urban economy which generates 18% of the total output of Scotland as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. The proportion has been increasing since 2010 as the Glasgow region economy strengthens and recovers from the recession. Total GVA in 2014 (latest data) was £20,914m in real prices. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Glasgow region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy Total GVA in the Glasgow region and Glasgow region’s share of total Scotland GVA Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Glasgow region’s significant contribution to Scotland’s economy is driven by its industrial structure and the size of its business and employment base. The region is a major centre for public sector employment – Human Health and Social Work Activities are the biggest contributor to GVA – and the region is a major retail and service centre. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Industrial Structure of the Glasgow region (GVA by sector) 2014 Total GVA (£m) and growth rate at 2013 prices Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Glasgow

There were 453,200 employed in the Glasgow region in 2015, 2,000 more than in These are people employed in VAT or PAYE-registered businesses and so excludes those who are self-employed and work for smaller firms. Total employment has been increasing since 2010 as the Glasgow regional economy recovers from heavy job losses during the recession, although this masks some key labour market changes and dynamics. See Section 7 on Where are the Jobs and Section 9 on the Labour Market. Key Labour Market Performance Employment change Glasgow region, Scotland and Great Britain Source: Business Register Employment Survey Glasgow

Despite considerable reductions in the numbers amongst the most deprived in Scotland, there remain areas of deprivation within the region, and many suffer multiple disadvantages including exclusion from the labour market. Although the number of jobs is increasing in the Glasgow region, not all those living in the region are accessing these opportunities. For more information see Section 7 on the Labour Market. The average earnings of residents in East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire are significantly higher than the average for those in Glasgow City. Deprivation and Living Standards Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: Scottish Household Survey Glasgow City has a far lower proportion with household incomes above £30,000 and £40,000 per annum than the remainder of the region. Glasgow City has a higher proportion earning less than £20,000 per annum Glasgow

The Glasgow region comprises Glasgow City, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire. Commuting into Glasgow City for employment is commonplace from the two other local authorities in the region. More information is at Section 8: The People of the Glasgow region. Commuting Flows Those in Glasgow City are much more likely to work in their own local authority area (76%) compared to East Renfrewshire (18%) and East Dunbartonshire (26%). Source: 2011 Census Glasgow

The Glasgow City Region Skills Investment Plan (2016) Glasgow and Clyde Valley (now Glasgow City Region) City Deal: agreed among UK and Scottish Governments and City of Glasgow, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire local authorities (2014) Skills and Employment Working Group established also including SDS, DWP and colleges Consultancy support commissioned to develop Skills Investment Plan, including wide-ranging consultation and workshops Draft plan now agreed by Working Group, local authority chief executives, Cabinet and SDS Development of detailed Action Plan remitted to Working Group Glasgow

The Glasgow City Region Skills Investment Plan (2016) Glasgow

5. Glasgow Region: Economic Performance
The economic performance of the region is a critical driver of the demand for skills. Successful businesses need high levels of productivity, with skills an important component of this, although not the only one, particularly as business processes become more mechanised. Economic performance is measured using Gross Value Added (GVA) per worker as the best measure of productivity. In this section: Total GVA and GVA growth rates GVA per employee (productivity) GVA per employee by sector Forecast GVA growth Glasgow

Economic Performance (1)
Total GVA in the Glasgow region has shown strong growth since 2012, outperforming Scotland. The region experienced the negative effects of the recession strongly in 2009, far more so than the Scotland fall, and it has taken growth in the last three years to recover to Scotland growth levels. Total GVA in 2014 in the Glasgow region was higher than the 2008 pre-recession level. Total GVA in the Glasgow region ( ) Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Total GVA £m at 2013 prices 2004 £18,850 6.3% 4.1% 2005 £20,035 -0.7% 3.7% 2006 £19,897 -0.4% 1.7% 2007 £19,824 1.3% 2008 £20,075 -2.0% -3.6% 2009 £19,676 -4.3% 2010 £18,837 2.0% 1.8% 2011 £19,208 -0.6% -0.2% 2012 £19,097 2.9% 2.6% 2013 £19,647 6.4% 4.3% 2014 £20,914 3.5% 2.8% Glasgow

GVA per worker is a proxy measure for productivity. It describes the region’s output in relation to the numbers in employment. Again this is heavily influenced by the sector composition of the regional economy. Sectors such as professional, scientific and technical services are typically more productive than others, with Glasgow City having a greater share of these sectors than the remainder of the region. The GVA per worker in Glasgow City is the highest since the recession, and is now higher than the Scotland average. GVA Per Employee (Productivity) Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

GVA output growth in the Glasgow region is forecast to outpace the Scotland average. Growth of 18.6% is forecast 2015 to 2024, compared to 15.9% for Scotland. Forecast growth rates are highest in Glasgow City, and lower in East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire. Uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU has dampened near-term growth prospects. GVA Output Growth to 2024 Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Glasgow region’s strong GVA growth of recent years is expected to continue. This is driven by jobs and productivity growth in Glasgow City. Further private services growth is anticipated. The greatest contributions will be from administration and support and wholesale/retail. Fastest growth is expected in information and communication, professional, scientific and technical and administration and support services. Forecast Output Growth by Sector Glasgow

6. Glasgow Region: Business Base
The business base of the region is a strong determinant of the economic performance describe in the previous section. Successful businesses need skilled and effective employees. This section presents an analysis of the business base by its industrial sector composition and other characteristics. In this section: Total number of businesses and growth rates Business base by sector Growth sector businesses Business base by size Business density Business birth, death and survival rates Self employment Glasgow

Business Base (1) There were 21,950 businesses in the Glasgow region in These are VAT and PAYE registered businesses. The Glasgow region business base has grown faster than the Scotland average since The growth rate from 2014 to 2015 was 8.4% compared to 7.3% for Scotland. Total Number of Businesses and Growth Rates Number of businesses by year from 2010 – and growth rate comparators Source: UK Business Counts Change in number of business Glasgow

Business Base (2) Business Base by Sector, 2015
Almost one in five businesses in the Glasgow region (19%) are in the professional, scientific and technical sector. This is a similar proportion to Scotland. 11% of businesses are in the retail sector, reflecting its prominence as a regional centre. The region also has a concentration of arts, entertainment, recreation and other services (9% of the total), above the Scotland and UK proportions. Business Base by Sector, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (3) Growth Sectors
The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy identifies six growth sectors, detailed below, where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage. A greater proportion of Glasgow region growth sector businesses are in finance and business services (43% versus 36%) and creative industries than nationally (30% versus19%), with far fewer in the food and drink sector (2% versus 23%). Growth Sectors Number of businesses by growth sector 2015 – and proportion of all growth sector businesses Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Growth sector businesses as a proportion of all business, 2015 Glasgow

Business Base (4) Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013
Financial and business services and the energy sector (including renewables) are the greatest contributors to growth sector GVA within the region, followed by the creative industries. The strength of the financial and business services sector in the Glasgow region is illustrated, where the sector represents a third of all the growth sector GVA. Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013 Source: Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Total GVA (£m) at basic prices of Scottish Government Growth Sectors by sector, 201 Some figures are supressed due to data being disclosive Growth sector total GVA as a % of all Growth Sector GVA, 2013 Glasgow

Business Base (5) Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015
The Glasgow region has a larger proportion of large businesses (250 or more employees) than the Scotland and UK averages, with 125 large employers. It also has more businesses with between 10 and 49 employees. Business density in the Glasgow region is 272 per 10,000 compared to 313 per 10,000 in Scotland, partly reflecting the greater proportion of large employers. Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 Number of businesses by employee sizeband and by proportion of all businesses, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (6) Business survival rates in the Glasgow region are lower than for Scotland and Great Britain. In all, 42% of businesses starting in 2010 had survived until 2014 in the Glasgow region, compared to 48% at both Scotland and Great Britain level. However, the business birth rate in the region has been increasing over time and is now above the Scotland rate, although failure rates are also higher. Business Birth and Death Rates ( ) and Survival Rates ( ) Note: A business is deemed to have survived if still active 5 years after birth Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-year Population Estimates Glasgow

Business Base (7) Self Employment
Self employment rates are the proportion of the resident working age (16-64) population who are self employed. Self employment rates in the Glasgow region in the last two years has risen above the Scotland rate and in 2015 stood at 11.6% compared to 10.8% across Scotland. The rate may have been affected but the rise of non-standard work. The Scotland rate has consistently been below the UK average. Self Employment Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec each year Glasgow

7. Glasgow Region: Where are the Jobs?
Analysing the employment base of the region provides important information on the nature and functioning of the labour market. There have been significant occupational shifts in Scotland, reflected in changes in the Glasgow region, where higher skilled occupation employment continues to increase. There has been jobs recovery since the recession, but not all of these have been good quality jobs. In this section: Total employment and rate of change Employment by sector and change over time Sectoral specialism Employment by occupation and change Non standard jobs – part time and non permanent Resident and workplace earnings Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (1) Total Employment and Change 2009-2015
There were 453,200 employees in employment in the Glasgow region in These are jobs in VAT and PAYE registered businesses. Following a steep decline in employment following the recession to 2012, far faster than the Scotland and Great Britain decline, employment in the Glasgow region has recovered strongly. The increase in employment from 2013 to 2014 was 3.5%, above Scotland at 3.2% and the UK at 2.7%. Jobs growth increased again between 2014 and 2015, a further 2,000 jobs at a time of static employment in Scotland as a whole. Total Employment and Change Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (2) Employment by sector provides important information on the industrial composition of the regional economy. Employment in the health sector comprises the largest share of the population however the Glasgow region has a far higher proportion of business administration and support service employment (13%) than the Scotland (9%) and Great Britain (8%) averages. At 5%, the Glasgow region also has a higher share of financial services employment than the Scotland and Great Britain averages. Employment by Sector and Proportion of Total Employment 2014 The Glasgow region has a higher proportion of employment in information and communications (4%) than Scotland (2%). Sectors such as these and the professional, scientific and technical sector (where the region has 7% of all jobs in this sector, equal to the Scotland average) are typically higher value added and higher paid service sector jobs. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (3) Sector Specialisms
Marrying employment growth trends by sector with the size and concentration of the sector in a region can provide important information on the dynamics of the labour market. Concentration of a sector is the extent to which employment in the sector is above (or below) sector concentration at the Scotland level. Sector Specialisms Sectors above the horizontal line are more concentrated in the region than in Scotland, those below the line less so. Sectors to the right of the vertical line are larger in employment terms than five years ago, to the left less so. Larger bubbles reflect higher sector employment. The large and concentrated business services sector is illustrated right. Although smaller financial services and information and communication sectors are concentrated and have grown in size in the last five years. Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (4) Employment by Occupation (2015)
The occupational profile of the region is important because occupation is often linked to skills requirements. There has been a steady and continuing shift to more professional occupations. The Glasgow region demonstrates this transition where now more than one in four residents work in professional occupations (26%), far higher than the Scotland and Great Britain averages. A further 16% work in associate professional and technical occupations. Employment by Occupation (2015) Change Over Time Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (5) Part-Time Employment Non-Permanent Employment
Just over a quarter (26%) of those in employment work part-time and this is the same proportion as Scotland and Great Britain. More of the jobs created in the economic recovery have been part time jobs. There are also 6.2% in non-permanent employment, a higher percentage than nationally (5.4%) and rising to 6.7% in the Glasgow City local authority area. Nationally, 2.2% are employed on zero hours contracts. Part-Time Employment Non-Permanent Employment Source: Annual Population Survey Non-permanent employment is the proportion of all of those of working age in employment types such as fixed- term contracts, temporary agency, casual or seasonal work. The increase in non-permanent employment reflects the changing nature of employment. Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (6) Some sectors are typically better paid than others, and the industrial base of the region is often an indicator of average wage levels. The composition of the industrial base within a region also affects workplace pay levels. Average workplace earnings in Glasgow City are £515 for all workers, above the Scotland average of £492. In the remainder of the region, average workplace earnings are below the Scotland average. By contrast, those resident in East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire earn well above the Scottish average. Average Weekly Workplace and Residence-based Earnings, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Glasgow

8. Glasgow Region: Its People
The demographic characteristics of the region are extremely important in determining current and future demand for skills. The age profile of the population, the number of young people and elderly, the increasing proportion of retirees, are all contributory factors. The movement of people within a region, and into and out of a region, also affect the labour market and the supply of skills available to employers. In this section: Population growth Population profile Population projections Net migration Travel to work data Glasgow

People (1) Population Change over Time
The Glasgow region population has grown faster than the Scotland average over the 10 years 2005 to 2015, although both lag behind the rate of growth in Great Britain of 7.8%. The population of the Glasgow region continued to increase slightly faster than the Scotland rate for over the last year ( ), +0.9% compared to +0.5%. Population Change over Time Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Year Glasgow region Scotland 2005 765,160 5,110,200 2006 763,820 5,133,100 2007 766,650 5,170,000 2008 771,010 5,202,900 2009 776,560 5,231,900 2010 781,830 5,262,200 2011 788,870 5,299,900 2012 791,990 5,313,600 2013 793,890 5,327,700 2014 798,760 5,347,600 2015 806,240 5,373,000 Change 41,080 262,800 % Change 5% Glasgow

People (2) Age profile of the Region
The Glasgow region has a younger age profile than the Scotland average. This is driven by growth of the age band since (+25%, 26,900) compared to Scotland ( +12%.) The Glasgow region has also seen a lower decline in the age band than Scotland (-13% versus -16%) and has had much lower growth of the 65+ age band (+4%, 5,100) than Scotland (+18%). Overall, the working age population of the region increased by 40,000 over the 10 years to 2015. Age profile of the Region Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (3) Population Projections (2012-2037)
Source: National Records of Scotland The Glasgow region’s population is projected to grow more quickly than in Scotland as a whole to (+10% compared to +8%). The working age population is also projected to grow compared to a national decline(+2% compared to -4%). Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population is projected to become older, although less markedly than other areas. Year Glasgow region Scotland 2014 796,626 5,346,120 2015 799,600 5,365,420 2016 802,867 5,385,719 2017 806,371 5,406,997 2018 810,121 5,429,012 2019 814,025 5,451,660 2020 818,030 5,474,391 2021 822,078 5,497,079 2022 826,151 5,519,588 2023 830,208 5,541,816 2024 834,250 5,563,670 2025 838,219 5,585,040 2026 842,108 5,605,814 2027 845,909 5,625,892 2028 849,597 5,645,150 2029 853,166 5,663,541 2030 856,622 5,681,121 2031 859,975 5,697,808 2032 863,195 5,713,523 2033 866,290 5,728,318 2034 869,283 5,742,297 2035 872,184 5,755,558 2036 875,038 5,768,217 2037 877,827 5,780,371 Change 81,201 434,251 Glasgow

People (4) Net Migration
There has been considerable net migration into the Glasgow region in recent years. Although net migration decreased in 2010/11 and 2012/13, from 5,535 to 1,070, it has since risen sharply in the years 2012/13 to 2014/15, (to 7,036 in 2014/15). The age band with the highest net migration in the year 2014/2015 was those aged (5,604), partly reflecting the region’s age profile and its attractiveness as a place to live and study. Net Migration Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (5) Travel to Work (2011 Census)
There are high levels of out-commuting from East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire into Glasgow City, which reflects that Glasgow City is the major regional employment centre. Fewer than one in four in East Dunbartonshire works within the local authority area, and less than one in five does so in East Renfrewshire indicating the very high levels of out-commuting. Glasgow City is the most self-contained labour market, with 76% of those employed working locally. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work. Also, location of employment for East Dunbartonshire refers to the Lanarkshire region; and East Renfrewshire refers to the West region Glasgow

Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number
People (6) The workplace population of Glasgow City at the time of the last Census was 323,198, and of these workers, 49% were resident in the City (157,278). A greater number of Glasgow City workers were commuting from elsewhere in Scotland into Glasgow (163,032). Overall, there was a net inflow of workers to Glasgow City (of 114,999). By contrast, there were more than 20,000 workers in each of East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire who commuted out of their local authority area to work Travel to Work (2011 Census) Note: Not currently in data matrix Council area of workplace Total workplace population Lives and works in the area Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number Net flow of workers Works in the area but lives elsewhere in Scotland Works in the area but lives in the rest of UK Lives in the area but works elsewhere in Scotland Lives in the area but works in the rest of the UK Within Scotland From the rest of the UK Total East Dunbartonshire 20,186 9,938 10,138 110 30,201 321 -20,063 -211 -20,274 East Renfrewshire 13,989 6,329 7,602 58 27,752 313 -20,150 -255 -20,405 Glasgow City 323,198 157,278 163,032 2,888 48,033 1,214 114,999 1,674 116,673 Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work. Also, location of employment for East Dunbartonshire refers to the Lanarkshire region; and East Renfrewshire refers to the West region Glasgow

9. Glasgow Region: Labour Market
The functioning of the labour market is influenced by labour market participation. Those unemployed or economically inactive will not be directly contributing to the economic success of the region, although their situation may be temporary, or indeed those inactive may be learning and studying and be a future contributor to the region. In this section: Economic activity Qualifications Participation Unemployment Glasgow

Labour Market (1) Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates
Glasgow region’s economic activity and inactivity rates have remained relatively stable between 2005 and 2015, although economic activity decreased (to 69%) and inactivity increased (to 31%) in By 2015 both rates had reached their best levels since 2012 (74% and 26% respectively). Scotland’s rates have remained stable throughout, staying at 77-78% and 22-23% respectively. Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (2) Qualifications
The highest level qualifications of the resident working age population is a useful barometer of skills attainment levels. There remains a cohort in regional economies with no formal qualifications which used to be associated with older workers. Jobs increasingly require higher levels of qualification, including so-called entry level jobs. The increasingly qualified working age population (16-64) in the Glasgow region is illustrated, with 48% now qualified to SCQF Level 7-12, compared to 43% for Scotland. On the other hand, there remains a higher proportion of the region with no qualifications, 11%, compared to the Scotland average of 9%. Qualifications Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (3) Participation
The Participation Measure is a new measure which provides the ability to identify the status of the wider cohort – not just those who have left school. Participation of young people aged in the Glasgow region was in line with the Scottish rate of 90%. Participation Source: Skills Development Scotland Glasgow region Scotland Number % Total Cohort (16-19) 32,469 Participating (16-19) 29,146 90% Education 23,900 74% 71% Employment 4,410 14% 17% Other Training & Development 836 3% 2% Not Participating (16-19) 1,305 4% Unemployed Seeking 942 Unemployed not Seeking 363 1% Unconfirmed Status (16-19) 2,018 6% Glasgow

Labour Market (4) The way unemployment is measured is changing with the introduction of Universal Credit. As such, the data is regarded as ‘experimental’ and care is needed when comparing to previous data (all regions have recorded a fall in claimant count unemployment under the new measure). Unemployment – Claimant Count (includes Universal Credit) – experimental measure Source: Job Seekers Allowance Glasgow region Scotland Great Britain May 2005 3,125 12,760 115,375 May 2006 3,085 13,265 141,970 May 2007 3,095 12,490 145,310 May 2008 2,440 7,825 99,735 May 2009 3,160 10,320 123,545 May 2010 5,405 20,870 252,170 May 2011 6,405 20,340 203,195 May 2012 7,455 35,725 378,480 May 2013 7,645 38,090 410,710 May 2014 5,710 29,470 310,865 May 2015 3,835 19,145 197,275 May 2016 3,460 16,515 158,520 Glasgow

10. Glasgow Region: Skills Challenges
Employers can have difficulties accessing the skills they need, skills deficiencies can be amongst those they are seeking to recruit and amongst those in their existing workforce. Skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) relate to the skills shortages amongst those being recruited, and skills gaps are a deficit within the existing workforce. The 2015 UKCES Employer Skills Survey provides timely data in relation to these and other issues. In this section: Skills shortages Skills gaps Recruitment activity Skills under-utilisation Glasgow

Skills Challenges (1) Skills Shortages
The UKCES Employer Skills Survey 2015 indicates that across the Glasgow region skills shortage vacancies were slightly more prevalent compared to Scotland as a whole at 1.1% of the total workforce, compared to 0.8%. Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages accounted for 1.3% of the workforce, compared to 1.1% across Scotland as a whole. In all, 7% of establishments reported at least one hard to fill vacancy in Glasgow, compared to 6% across Scotland. Skills Shortages Source: UKCES Glasgow region Scotland Hard to fill vacancies as % of workforce 1.3% 1.1% Skills shortage vacancies as % of workforce 0.8% Glasgow

Skills Challenges (2) Skills Gaps
Skills gaps occur when those in employment are regarded by their employer as lacking some of the skills required for their job. Around 4% of the workforce in the Glasgow region had a skills gap compared to 5% nationally. Proportionally fewer employers in the Glasgow region reported skills gaps compared to the Scottish average. Skills gaps were particularly prevalent in sales and customer services staff in the Glasgow region 73% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally) Skills Gaps Source: UKCES Glasgow

Skills Challenges (3) Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation
Overall, 53% of businesses in the Glasgow region had recruited staff in the year prior to the 2015 UKCES survey, this was in line with the national average. The number of vacancies however was above the Scottish average, 23% of employers in the Glasgow region had at least one vacancy. In addition, 36% of employers in Glasgow had staff who were under-utilised, this was also above the national average. Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation Source: UKCES Glasgow

11. Glasgow Region: Schools Data
The number of young people at school and projected school roll numbers are important as those at school will form part of the future labour market. The destination of those leaving school also has an impact on the labour market, as young people might enter employment, education and training, or none of these after school. In this section: School roll numbers School roll projections School leaver destinations Glasgow

Schools Data (1) Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group
There were 40,149 secondary school pupils in the Glasgow region in The proportion of pupils in S5 and S6 was slightly higher than the proportion across Scotland as a whole. Scotland has slightly higher proportions of pupils than in the Glasgow region in S1 – S4. Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census Glasgow region Scotland S1 7,114 50,813 S2 6,947 49,514 S3 7,123 50,197 S4 7,218 51,078 S5 6,647 45,817 S6 5,100 33,936 Glasgow

Schools Data (2) Secondary School Roll Number Projections
Based on the latest available projections (2012), secondary school roll numbers are expected to decline by 3% to 2018 in the Glasgow region. This is greater than the 2% drop in numbers anticipated for Scotland as a whole over the same period. Secondary School Roll Number Projections Source: Scottish Government Pupil Projections Glasgow region Scotland 2014 40,400 282,800 2015 39,600 278,000 2016 39,100 275,300 2017 38,900 275,100 2018 39,300 277,900 Glasgow

Schools Data (3) School Leaver Destinations
Between 2013/14 and 2014/15, the Glasgow region has seen a three percentage point increase in school leavers entering a positive destination, the proportion now higher than Scotland. There are higher proportions of leavers entering Higher Education than in Scotland (42% v. 37%) although the proportion of Glasgow leavers entering Higher Education decreased by one percentage point between 2013/14 and 2014/15. School Leaver Destinations Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset 2013/14 2014/15 Glasgow region Scotland Glasgow Region Positive Destination 90% 92% 93% Higher Education 43% 39% 42% 37% Further Education 22% 24% 21% 23% Training 3% Employment 25% 28% Voluntary Work 1% 0% Activity Agreement Unemployed Seeking 8% 7% 6% Unemployed Non-Seeking 2% Unknown Glasgow

12. Glasgow Region: Skills Provision
There is a wide variety of skills and learning provision available which is designed to meet the future skills needs of the economy. Amongst this is the provision commissioned by Skills Development Scotland, notably via the Apprenticeship family of products (Modern Apprenticeships, Foundation Apprenticeships and Graduate Level Apprenticeships) and the Employability Fund and delivered by approved training providers including Colleges, Universities and Private training providers. In this section: Modern Apprenticeships by participant characteristic and framework grouping Foundation Apprenticeships Graduate Level Apprenticeships Employability Fund and Certificate of Work Readiness starts Glasgow

Skills Provision (1) MA Total Number of Starts
Modern Apprenticeships (MA) help employers to develop their workforce by training new and existing employees. For individuals, an MA lets them earn a wage while gaining a qualification. MA uptake in the Glasgow region and nationally was at a peak in 2011/12. The number of MAs in Glasgow region has decreased annually and in 2015/16 MA starts in the regional accounted for 13% of all MAs. In Glasgow region 52% of apprentices were within the age group, slightly higher than the national average (50%). MA Total Number of Starts MA Starts 2015/16, by Age Glasgow

Skills Provision (2) MA Starts by Gender 2010-2016
The gender split in MA uptake in the Glasgow region was broadly similar to the national picture. The trend from 2010/11 to 2015/16 shows a proportionate increase in male participation in MAs and declining female representation. More information on gender split in different frameworks can be found in Skills Provision (4). The representation of disabled individuals in MAs across Scotland remains low, 4% of individuals starting an MA in 2015/16 had a disability however 19% of the working age population in Scotland have a disability. MA Starts by Gender MA Starts by Disability Glasgow

Skills Provision (3) MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16
The uptake of MAs in the Glasgow region reflects a more diverse ethnic mix than the equivalent picture across Scotland. Overall, 4% of MAs in the Glasgow region had a Black Minority and Ethnic (BME) background compared to 2% across the country. This also compares favourably with the overall BME working population in Scotland of 3.1% (APS 2014). MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16

Skills Provision (4) The most popular MA Framework was Construction & Related (includes trades such as plumbing and joinery), it was also one of the most gender segregated groups with 98% male starts. Other male dominated groups included Other Manufacturing (100%), Engineering & Energy related (98%) and Automotive (97%). Proportionally females accounted for most MAs in Personal Services (includes hairdressing) (90%) and Sport, Health and Social Care (86%). Modern Apprenticeship Starts by Framework Group and Gender Note: figures rounded to the nearest 5, figures less than 5 have suppressed. Percentages have been calculated on unrounded figures. Glasgow

Skills Provision (5) MA Achievement Rates 2010/11- 2015/16
MA achievement rates give the proportion of MA starts who completed their apprenticeship: gaining their target qualification and reaching work-based learning aims. Achievement rates in the Glasgow region have been largely in line with the average rates for Scotland (within two percentage points). In 2015/16, in the Glasgow region, three in four candidates successfully completed their MA, 75%. This was one percentage point behind the national achievement rate, 76%. MA Achievement Rates 2010/ /16 Glasgow

Skills Provision (6) Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) were developed to help school pupils gain work experience and access work-based learning. S4 and S5 students spend time at college or with a local employer, and complete the FA alongside other subjects like National 5s and Highers. The qualification takes two years and can lead to employment or further study at college or university. FAs were piloted in some regions in 2014 and participation has grown over the past three years. The data shows uptake from the past two years and anticipated uptake for 2016/18. Foundation Apprenticeships, National Uptake 2014/ /18 Foundation Apprenticeships In 2016/18, the national uptake of FLA is expected to be over 300. In 2016/18 there are eight frameworks available, linked to six key sectors: Business Skills, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Financial Services, IT Hardware, IT Software, Social Services CYP, Social Services & Healthcare SDS aims to make FLA part of every secondary school’s offer by 2020. Glasgow

Skills Provision (7) Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development
Graduate Level Apprenticeships (GLAs) provide work-based learning opportunities up to Master’s degree level for employees. They have been created in partnership with industry and the further and higher education sector. Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development GLAs are currently available in: ICT/Digital: Software Development ICT/Digital: IT Management for Business Engineering: manufacturing and Design Civil Engineering Over the course of 2017 the intention is to expand the offer to include: Business and Management SCQF Level 10 Engineering (Instrumentation, Measurement and Control SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Cyber Security SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Digital Media SCQF Level 10) Life Sciences SCQF Level 10 Children and Young People SCQF Level 8 Glasgow

Skills Provision (8) The Employability Fund (EF) supports locally delivered services that are designed to encourage unemployed people to move towards work. SDS administers the EF on behalf of the Scottish Government*. The uptake of EF starts in Glasgow region accounted for almost 20% of all participants in Scotland. The gender split was within 1% the national trend at 65% male and 35% female. Employability Fund Starts 2015/16, Total and by Gender *All data provided relates only to SDS funded activity. As other entities administer EF programme the data will not reflect total participation Glasgow

Skills Provision (9) The Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) addresses the challenge that young people have of gaining work experience and workplace skills prior to entering the labour market. The CWR provides young people with 190 hours of work experience and an assessment from an employer to certify that they have established workplace competencies. In 2015/16, 24% of the total individual starts were in the Glasgow region. On the other hand only 15% of employers involved in the scheme were located in the Glasgow region. Certificate of Work Readiness 2015/16, Starts and Employers Glasgow

13. Glasgow: College Activity
Colleges provide a range of opportunities for all students, regardless of prior achievement, from access courses to degree level qualifications to meet national, regional and local economic needs. Qualifications include National 4 & 5s, NQ, HNC, HND and Degrees. Colleges also provide qualifications towards Foundation and Modern Apprenticeships. Data in this section relates to enrolments at Glasgow City College, Glasgow Clyde College and Glasgow Kelvin College and was provided by Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: College activity by age and gender Travel to study: location of students College activity by subject Gaelic language activity College activity: FE/HE Outcomes and destinations Glasgow

College Activity (1) 2015/16 college enrolments
In 2015/16, there were 64,630 enrolments at colleges in Glasgow, 23% of all enrolments across Scotland. Most enrolments were on part-time courses, similar to the trend nationally. Both regionally and nationally, the 25+ group was the largest overall in terms of enrolments. This age group accounted for 21% of full-time enrolments and 55% of part-time enrolments. This suggests that college activity is characterised by older students on part-time courses and younger students on full-time courses. 2015/16 college enrolments 2015/16 college enrolments by age Note: Unless otherwise stated all data is for total college enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (2) 2015/16 college enrolments by gender
Nationally in 2015/16, females (51%) accounted for slightly more enrolments than males (49%). In Glasgow the opposite was true with males accounting for 54% of enrolments and females 46%. In terms of home area, the majority of students (58% of enrolments) came from within the Glasgow region however the proportion coming from elsewhere in Scotland (29%) was much higher than the national average showing Glasgow is an attractive educational destination. This is reflective of many factors including specialist provision within the Glasgow colleges, public transport links from outlying areas and links to HEIs with specialist or controlled subject places i.e. Medicine and Nursing. 2015/16 college enrolments by gender 2015/16 college enrolments by home area Glasgow

College Activity (3) College enrolments by SIMD
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) measure shows that in 2015/16 a lower proportion (10%) of enrolments at Glasgow colleges came from the 10% most deprived areas, compared to Scotland as a whole (15%), although enrolments from the SIMD was higher than the national average. Compared to colleges across Scotland, Glasgow’s colleges had proportionally more enrolments in Higher Education (HE) (25% vs. 18%) and fewer in Further Education (FE) (75% vs. 82%). College enrolments by SIMD College enrolments by HE/FE Note: Further Education (FE) refers to courses leading to qualifications up to SCQF level 7. Higher Education (HE) refers to courses at SCQF level 7 and above. Glasgow

College Activity (4) Of the 64,630 enrolments at the three colleges in the Glasgow region, 16% were in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects. The proportion of full-time and part-time STEM enrolments differed with 22% of full-time enrolments in STEM compared to 14% part-time. Almost a quarter of the males enrolled in the region studied a STEM subject, whereas the figure for females was much lower (10%). Electrical Engineering had the greatest number of STEM enrolments in 2015/16 and accounted for 14% of STEM enrolments. College enrolments - STEM subject and mode of study Ten largest STEM subject areas by total enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (5) Business, management and administration was the largest subject area in terms of full-time enrolments at colleges in the Glasgow region in 2015/16. Across Scotland, Care was the largest subject area by full-time enrolments, this was the third largest in the region. Gender segregation was greatest in Nautical studies (97% male) and Engineering (94% male). Performing arts was the most gender equal subject area (56% female, 44% male). College enrolments by full-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (6) In 2015/16, Computing and ICT had the greatest number of part-time enrolments in the region, followed by Languages. Nationally Care had the greatest number of part-time enrolments, this was the fourth largest part-time subject area in the region. Gender imbalance was greatest in Nautical Studies (97% male) and Engineering (93% male). On the other hand, Media had a relatively even gender profile (51% female, 49% male) as did Science (52% female, 48% male). College enrolments by part-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (7) Gaelic FE enrolments
Enrolment of students on Gaelic FE courses varies considerably across the country. The Highlands & Islands had the greatest uptake, with enrolments increasing by 14% from 2014/15 to 2015/16. Gaelic activity declined in Glasgow from 2014/15 to 2015/16, falling by 29% from a low base of 35 enrolments in 2014/15. Gaelic uptake across other regions is mixed, with nine regions reporting no Gaelic college activity. Overall Gaelic enrolments across Scotland increased by 12% from 2014/15 to 2015/16, rising from 1,260 to 1,405. Gaelic FE enrolments Note: Data is institution rather than resident-based Glasgow

College Activity (8) 2015/16 FE student outcomes
In 2015/16, 67% of FE students in the Glasgow region successfully completed their course. This was higher than the 66% success rate achieved across Scotland. In terms of destination (2014/15), 17% entered employment and 80% of learners progressed onto additional education or training including higher level study or Modern Apprenticeships. 2015/16 FE student outcomes 2014/15 college destinations Note: Completed partial success indicates that a student completed the course but did not gain the qualification. This also includes students who gained employment before finishing the course or transferred to another course. Glasgow

14. Glasgow Region: University Provision
Scotland has strong university provision with more world-class universities than any other country by head of population. There are five universities in Scotland that are ranked in the world’s top 200 (2015 Times Higher Education rankings). Scotland’s universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In the Glasgow region, the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow School of Art, the Royal Conservatoire of Scotland the University of Glasgow provide educational opportunities to residents and also attract students to the region. Data in this section was provided by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: Study destination for region’s residents Students numbers within the region by gender, age and home area Subject choice Student graduation by level Student destinations by employment and industry Glasgow

University Provision (1)
There were five Higher Education Institutions (HEI) in Glasgow in 2014/15. These were the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow School of Art, the Royal Conservatoire of Scotland the University of Glasgow. The largest institution was the University of Glasgow which accounted for more than one third (38%) of students with the University of Strathclyde and Glasgow Caledonian University accounting for 32% and 25% respectively. Students at HEIs in Glasgow Region 2014/15 Note: Unless otherwise stated, data on this and subsequent slides is institution, not resident based and refers to university campuses located in Scotland and excludes study with the Open University Scotland, campuses outside of Scotland and incomplete records.

In 2014/15, the number of students at HEIs in Glasgow grew slightly (1%) from the previous year and comprised 30% of the Scotland total. Across Scotland students at HEIs grew by 1%. The gender split at HEIs in the region was 56% female and 44% male uptake, similar to the respective national uptake of 58% male and 42% female across Scotland. 2013/14-14/15 total student number 2014/15 HEI students, by gender Glasgow

In 2014/15, the largest student cohort by age at universities in the Glasgow region were those in the age range. This was similar to the national picture. A lower proportion of students attending HEIs in Glasgow came from within the region compared to the national picture. On the other hand universities in Glasgow attracted almost half their students from elsewhere in Scotland which shows the strong university provision attracts people to the region. 2014/15 university students, by age 2014/15 university students, by home area Glasgow

In 2014/15, over 23,600 Glasgow region residents studied at a number of Higher Education Institutions across Scotland. Within the top five were three local institutions – University of Glasgow, University of Strathclyde and Glasgow Caledonian University. The Open University was also a popular choice for Glasgow residents and attendees from the region represented 12% of the total Open University uptake across Scotland. Top 5 universities attended by Glasgow Region residents 2014/15

In 2014/15 at universities in the Glasgow region, the most popular subject was Business and Administrative Studies (15% of total) and this was also the case across Scotland (14% of total). Other popular subject choices were Subjects Allied to Medicine, Engineering and Education. 2014/15 total enrolment of students at HE Institutions, by subject Glasgow

In 2014/15, 59% of students who studied at Glasgow HEIs, graduated with a first degree. The remaining 41% achieved a postgraduate qualification. Compared to the national average the region had proportionally more leavers obtaining postgraduate qualifications. Universities in the region accounted for one fifth of students in Scotland that graduated with an other undergraduate qualification. 2014/15 university graduates by level of study Glasgow

Data on this and the following two slides was provided by the HESA Graduate Destinations Survey which surveys a sample of Higher Education Institutes graduates six months after leaving university. In 2014/15, the majority of Glasgow’s HEI graduates entered full-time work (64%), which was slightly higher than the percentage nationally (61%). Of those surveyed 5% were unemployed, which was the same as the national trend (5%). 2014/15 university graduates by employment status Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from Glasgow’s HEIs went on to work in a range of occupations. The largest percentage (45%) were engaged as professionals and the smallest percentage (<0%) as operatives. Proportionally more graduates from HEIs in Glasgow went to work in higher level occupations compared to the trend nationally. 2014/15 university graduates by occupation Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from Glasgow’s HEIs worked in a wide range of industries. The largest group entered the Education sector (17%) closely followed by Health and social work (15%) and professional, scientific and technical activities (10%). 2014/15 university graduates, employment by industry Glasgow

15. Glasgow Region: Jobs and skills changes
This section will outline forecasted changes in employment from 2015 to 2024, and the nature of changing demand for qualifications in specific occupational areas. It will also consider longer term changes in the labour market and future expansion and replacement employment demand. In this section: Forecasts demand for jobs and how these may change Changing occupational and qualification demand Long-term changes in the labour market Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to rise on average by 0.4% per year over the period, twice the rate of 0.2% expected for Scotland. Such growth equates to 17,700 additional jobs in the area by Administrative & support and professional, scientific & technical activities are expected to account for over half of new jobs (10,400) in the area over the period. The construction sector is also expected to experience significant job creation (2,700 jobs). In contrast, jobs losses are expected within manufacturing (2,600 jobs) and public administration & defence (2,800 jobs). Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Total Employment Growth Glasgow region Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

Growth is expected across the occupational over the forecast period, with the exception of administrative and secretarial occupations, which is expected to see a decline (500 people). Professional (3,100 people) and elementary occupations (2,100 people) are forecast to see the biggest increases and growth is also expected in associate professional and technical, caring, leisure and other service, and sales and customer service occupations (1,600 people each). More modest growth is also expected in managers, directors and senior officials (900 people) and process, plant and machine operatives (400 people) across the period. Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand Glasgow region Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics ‘000s Glasgow

The majority of openings in the Glasgow region over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for 59% of the 216,500 openings expected to be created between 2016 and The remaining opportunities will mainly be for individuals qualified to SCQF levels 5-6, equivalent to 31% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level. Forecast employment change by Qualification ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Replacement demand will result in over 204,200 openings within Glasgow region over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 11,900 openings between However together with replacement demand, will result in 216,100 openings over this period. Openings will be highest within professional and elementary occupations. Combined these will account for over 40% of openings in the region. They each are expected to experience both expansion and replacement demand over the forecast. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

16. Glasgow Region: Where are the key implications?
The Regional Skills Assessments provide the national policy context, the national economic picture and trends and the regional position. The regional perspective covers in some depth the demand for skills, current and forecast, as well as skills activity in place to meet these needs. There is a wide range of data, with further data available in the accompanying data matrix. This final section draws out some of the key implications for improving the performance of labour markets. These are not solutions for partners, but rather implications from the analysis upon which skills investment planning decisions can be made. In this section: Review of the demand for skills Review of current skills activity to meet need Key implications for skills investment planning and recommended focus for action Glasgow

Glasgow Region: Headline Summary (1)
. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics The Glasgow economy continues to recover well from the effects of the recession, where the region suffered more than many other parts of Scotland. The number of Glasgow region jobs continued to rise in 2015, where there has been no jobs growth at the Scotland level, yet there remain more than 9,000 fewer jobs than in 2009. The region continues to be an important business administration and support service centre. Financial and information and communications jobs have also increased in recent years. These sectors are also forecast to grow in output (and employment) terms in the future. Although there is jobs growth, 2015 increases are largely in public services, notably health, rather than the private sector. This indicates fragility in the region’s economic recovery. There were job losses in business services in 2015, and a sharp fall in retail employment (-6,000). Glasgow

. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued) Not all are participating in the labour market recovery and less traditional forms of employment are increasingly commonplace. There are higher rates of non-permanent employment than nationally in the region, and these are highest in Glasgow City. The region still has a third of all Scotland’s most deprived 10% areas. Last year, there was evidence of unemployment starting to rise. Recent data is clouded by the Universal Credit measure, where there are fewer claimants, although this reflects the new system. Glasgow’s rate is still below that for Scotland, but the gap has narrowed. Now almost half are qualified to SCQF 7-12, above the Scotland average, and this trend will continue. Stubbornly, the 11% with no qualifications refuses to fall. The working age population of the region has increased over 10 years, greatest for those aged It will grow again by 2% to 2037, although it will also age. The region continues to be attractive to students as a place to live and study, with strong in-migration of those aged In-commuting to the City remains a feature of the region. Glasgow

. Skills Challenges The increasing number employed and rising economic activity rates indicate a certain tightening of the labour market – and skills shortages are more prevalent in the region than for Scotland. More Glasgow region employers (almost one in four) report at least one vacancy than across Scotland. Skills gaps are less prevalent in Glasgow region than elsewhere, although these are greatest in the region’s important sales and customer services sector. More than a third of employers report skills under-utilization, above the Scotland rate. Glasgow

. Skills Activity to Meet Current and Future Demand Work-based learning is critical to meeting skills development needs. There were 3,372 MA starts in 2015/2016, although the number of starts has fallen since 2011/2012 – faster than the fall across Scotland indicating the continued challenge to increase work-based learning levels The top five MA frameworks largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, health & social care (with sport), administration & related, hospitality & tourism and retail & customer services. Other services including ICT professionals and financial services are relatively modestly represented given the growing importance of Glasgow as a regional centre for financial and professional services There is a continuing gender imbalance in many MA frameworks and MAs are still not commonplace in some sectors such as the Creative Industries Glasgow

. Future Trends There are expected to be an additional 17,700 jobs in the region to More than half of these will be in professional, scientific & technical services and administrative & support services. As part of this the need for ICT/Digital skills will cut across a range of sectors. The construction sector is also expected to experience significant jobs growth as will health and social care/child care. The ongoing transition to a knowledge-based economy will continues, with further losses in manufacturing and the public sector. Although the rate of jobs growth will outpace the Scotland rate, part-time jobs will comprise more than 60% of the total. Part-time and non-permanent employment has been a feature of the jobs recovery Glasgow

. Future Trends Growth is expected in business and public service professionals and in clerical and services elementary occupations, continuing the hourglass trend to the labour market with opportunity at the top and bottom of the skills ladder. 90% of jobs will require SCQF Level 5 and above, almost 60% at 7 and above. Replacement demand will create more than 200,000 openings to 2024, 40% of which will be in professional and elementary occupations, greatest in administration and sales, teaching & research, business and public services, science & technology and care. Glasgow

Glasgow Region: Key Implications (1)
. Recommended Areas of Focus Continuing to increase the quality of jobs. This is a key element of the City Deal Skills Investment Plan which seeks to support businesses to move up the value chain and improve productivity and competitiveness. The Glasgow region has made significant strides in moving to a more knowledge-based economy and there will need to be strong skills supply to sustain this transition. Within this, there is a need to ensure a good supply of well qualified labour. The region produces a large number of graduates and these must be retained, and others attracted, to ensure the higher level skilled base required. Employers should be encouraged to invest in, and value, higher skilled employees. Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). This includes the important business services sector and financial and professional services. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). There are other key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where replacement demand is strong, including retail, a large and important sector, social care/child care and tourism. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors. By extension, a need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. A need to increase the pool of labour. Economic activity levels have risen, however there remain more than 1 in 10 with no qualifications in the region, and deprivation levels have remained at a similar proportion of the Scotland total. Skills shortages are reported by employers, and more need to be helped to take up opportunities where they exist. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is a feature of the regional economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning a feature of this. A need to meet the region’s infrastructure needs. This will require adequate construction, engineering and professional skills given anticipated levels of demand arising from City Deal and other investment. Tackling gender imbalances in the sector can be part of meeting these needs. Glasgow

Regional Skills Assessment 2016

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Regional Skills Assessment 2016

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