Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Regional Skills Assessment 2016
Fife comprising Fife OK Glasgow

Contents Section 1: Introducing the Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Section 2: National Policy Context Section 3: The National Economic and Skills Context Section 4: Fife in Context Section 5: The Economic Performance of Fife Section 6: The Fife Business Base Section 7: Where are the jobs in Fife Section 8: The People of Fife Section 9: The Fife Labour Market Section 10: Skills Challenges in Fife Section 11: Schools numbers and destinations in Fife Section 12: Skills Provision in Fife Section 13: College Activity Section 14: University Provision Section 15: How are Skills and Jobs Likely to Change? Section 16: What are the key implications for the Region? Glasgow

1. Introducing the RSAs In this section:
What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? What is not covered by the RSAs? Other sources of useful information Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
Regional Skills Assessments provide a coherent evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Their purpose is to: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic years Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses. Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills. Support wider public and private investment propositions. Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
RSAs are developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. They cover demand for skills, supply of people and skills, skills provision and skills challenges. ….and include employment and GVA forecasts and trends to help identify future skills needs RSA cover: Regional performance and characteristics Trends over time How does the region compare to Scotland High level implications for skills planning Provide a data matrix to allow further analysis RSAs do not: Answer every question... however can be used alongside data matrix and other national and local intelligence Tell partners what they should do – although RSAs are designed to support making better informed decisions Glasgow

RSA data sources and coverage
The Regional Skills Assessments are underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on 117 social and economic indicators With data at 3 spatial levels: Regional Outcome Agreement areas; City Region Deal; Local Authority – with Scotland and GB/UK comparators where available The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). No primary research is involved. The data matrix is found here: The data matrix including a full user guide is available at: do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments Data Matrix sources include: Annual Population Survey Business Register Employment Survey UKCES Employer Skills Survey UK Business Counts Census Data Scottish Government Growth Sector datasets Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Partner data sources include: SDS Participation Measure data SDS Apprenticeship Family data SE and HIE data on Regional Selective Assistance and Account Managed businesses supported SLAED data on major infrastructure projects Glasgow

Other useful sources and publications
Other useful sources of current and forthcoming information are available. Scottish Government Labour Market Strategy Scottish Government Economic Strategy Sectoral and Regional Skills Investment Plans UKCES Employer Survey data Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Reports RBS Business Monitor Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index Glasgow

2: National Policy Context
In this section: Government Economic Strategy Labour Market Strategy Youth Employment Strategy Skills Planning Model Scotland’s Skills Agencies Enterprise and Skills Review Glasgow

Economic Strategy (1) Scotland’s Economic Strategy (2015) reaffirms the Scottish Government’s commitment to creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. It sets out an overarching framework for achieving the two mutually supportive goals of increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy and prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.

Labour Market Strategy (2)
Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy (2016) sets out for the first time how the labour market and wider social and economic policies interact to drive ambitions for inclusive growth. It provides a framework for the approach to the labour market, and describes the actions that will be taken to deliver the vision. Vision: “A strong labour market that drives inclusive, sustainable economic growth, characterised by growing, competitive businesses, high employment, a skilled population capable of meeting the needs of employers, and where fair work is central to improving the lives of individuals and their families.“ Five priorities: promoting the Fair Work Framework and encouraging responsible business; supporting employability and skills, so that all of our people can participate successfully in the labour market; investing in our people and our infrastructure; fostering innovation including workplace innovation which will help spur job creation; and promoting Scotland internationally to improve the competitiveness of our businesses.

Youth Employment (3) Developing the Young Workforce – Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy (2014) sets out how the Scottish Government will implement the recommendations from the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce, with headline target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021:

Skills Planning Model (4)
Regional Skills Assessments are at the heart of Scotland’s Skills Planning Model by providing an evidence base to understand demand for skills and to influence planning and investment to meet demand.

Scotland’s Skills Agencies (5)
Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council are the two core skills agencies for Scotland. Skills Development Scotland Making Skills Work for Scotland: Employers are better able to recruit the right people with the right skills at the right time Employers have high performing, highly productive, fair and equal workplaces People have the right skills and confidence to secure good work, progress in their careers and achieve their full potential Across all SDS services and programmes, there is increased equality of opportunity SDS is recognised as an employer of choice, an exemplar of fair work, and internationally recognised for excellence, innovation and customer focus Scottish Funding Council, Ambition 2025: Scotland - the Best Place in the World to Learn, to Educate, to Research and to Innovate “Our ambition is that Scotland will be the best place in the world to learn, to educate, to research, and to innovate……with colleges and universities making a major contribution to Scotland’s social, cultural and economic development.” Priority outcomes: High-quality learning and teaching World-leading research Greater innovation in the economy.

Enterprise & Skills Review (6)
Report on Phase One (2016) included a series of recommendations of relevance to skills investment planning “We will align the functions of our skills agencies to better join up how learning and skills are planned and provided to learners and employers.” “We will conduct a comprehensive review of the Learning Journey focused on sustained employment, with significantly enhanced use of labour market information in skills planning at its heart.” “We will review the effectiveness of our investment in learning and skills to ensure we have the right balance of provision across age groups and sectors and maximise its contribution to productivity and inclusive growth.” Next steps; Regional partnerships Digital Enterprise support

3: Scotland’s Economic and Skills Context
In this section: Economic recession to recovery Productivity Employment Non-standard jobs Occupational change In-work poverty Skills challenges Scotland’s people Looking to the future Glasgow

Economic Recession to Recovery (1)
The ‘great recession’ was the longest and deepest recession in the UK since the 1930s both in terms of depth of recession and time to recover GDP. The UK posted the slowest recovery of any advanced economy (aside from Italy and Greece) with recovery only taking hold after pause to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and consumer spending and investment. Scotland’s recession was shallower than the UK. Different sectors had different rates of recovery. Recession and Recovery in Scotland Output Source: Adapted from Fraser of Allander. March 2016 Glasgow

Productivity (2) Productivity in Scotland
Moderated growth in the international economy and Scotland and poor productivity growth presents challenging conditions for many sectors and industries. Productivity in Scotland UK trails G7 advanced economies on productivity by 18 percentage points. Scotland trails UK. UK trails US productivity across all sectors, especially manufacturing. There is evidence that the UK manufacturing productivity in line with France/ Germany. But significant deterioration versus Europe in financial services and private service sector. Productivity improvements have been muted at a Scottish level over the last six years and have fallen behind wages growth. This suggests a weakening of Scotland’s competitive advantage. Fraser of Allander Institute argue that total factor productivity in Scotland is much lower than UK. In the absence of faster Scottish population growth, sustained economic growth will require raising competitiveness. Glasgow

Employment (3) Jobs in Scotland
Total employment in Scotland continued to fall until 2012, but has risen sharply since then. Total employment in was 1.5% greater than in 2009, although this is compared to a 7% increase in the UK. This has been dominated by private sector growth alongside a fall in public sector employment. Jobs in Scotland Employment Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Glasgow

Non Standard Jobs (4) The Rise of Non-Standard Work
Although Scotland is experiencing a growth in total employment since pre-recession times, a large part of this is due to the rise of ‘non standard jobs’ – part time, temporary and self employment. Of the new jobs created since the recovery, 50,000+ have been part time jobs, 35,000+ have been self-employed jobs and more than 13,000 have been temporary jobs. Only 9,000 or so have been full time jobs. The Rise of Non-Standard Work Employment change in Scotland and the UK, 2008 – 2015 Source: Labour Force Survey Glasgow

Occupational Change (5)
The occupational shift has seen a polarisation of employment with a strong bias towards higher skilled occupations. In effect, what we are seeing is an hour glass labour market. This represents significant challenges for progression. Occupational Shifts Source: 2011 Census, Labour Force Survey, Oxford Economics Glasgow

In-Work Poverty (6) Low Pay and In-Work Poverty
Historically, being in work was seen as a way of escaping poverty, however more recently this is not the case for all. In 2014/15 , 260,000 people or 55% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, before housing costs (BHC). In 2014/15, 350,000 people or 58% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, after housing costs (AHC). In-work poverty can be a particular challenge for some groups – women, younger people, older workers, those with no qualifications, some ethnic groups, lone parents and people with disabilities. Low Pay and In-Work Poverty In-work poverty (relative poverty AHC) in Scotland: 1998/99 to 2014/15 Number of individuals in poverty in households with at least one adult in employment Source:HBAI dataset, DWP Glasgow

Skills Challenges (7) Current Skills Challenges in Scotland (From Employer Skills Survey 2015) Steep rise in vacancies from 54,000 (2013) to 74,000 (2015) – reflecting higher demand for labour Proportion of establishments reporting Skills Shortage Vacancies in Scotland rose from 3% (2011) to 4% (2013) and 6% (2015) – in line with UK trends Proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps fell to 14% (2015) – same as at UK level Increasing levels of under-employment and under-utilisation of skills – 32% of establishments reported at least one member of staff with both skills and qualifications above the level required for the job Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties are likely to be a permanent feature of the Scottish labour market, particularly where experienced labour is required Along with under-employment and under-utilisation of skills, this will make improving productivity a challenging task Glasgow

Scotland’s People (8) People and Demographics
There have been strong population increases in Scotland, driven by in migration. The population is, however, an ageing one, with changing age demographics. This means there is considerable competition for young people. The majority of people in the workforce over the next 10 years are already working. People and Demographics Source: Mid Year Population Estimates Glasgow

The Future - Scotland’s People (9.1)
Over the period , the population of Scotland is forecast to grow by 9% to reach just under 5.8 million by The ageing of the population is forecast to continue however with the highest percentage of growth forecast in those age groups and 75+. Population Projections Source: General Register Office for Scotland Glasgow

The Future – GVA (9.2) Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland
GVA for Scotland is forecast to steadily increase over the period Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment (9.3)
Although employment is forecast to contract between , this will be followed by growth from In 2024, this would be equivalent to just under 47,500 additional jobs in the economy compared to levels. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment by Industry (9.4)
Not all industrial sectors will fare the same in terms of employment growth. It is forecast that there will be growth in Construction, Professional, scientific and technical activities and Administrative and Support Services whereas there will be a major decline in Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying and Public sector jobs. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Total Jobs Requirement (9.5)
Although understanding growth is important, a crucial part of skills planning is being able to understand the likely jobs that will arise as a result of both expansion demand (growth/contraction) and also replacement demand (churn in the labour market). Total jobs forecast to be filled in the period is 980,600 with most of these arising due to replacement demand and a very small proportion (c.26.5k) arising from growth. Looking Forward – Total Jobs Requirement Total jobs requirement from Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Qualifications (9.6)
Based on the total jobs requirement for , the forecast for qualifications required shows that the vast majority of requirement is for people qualified at higher level - SCQF7 and above. Only a small proportion of opportunities will be available for people with no-low qualifications. Looking Forward - Qualifications Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

4. Fife in Context In this section:
The context within which a region operates plays a huge part in explaining a region’s performance. Historical factors, the composition of the industrial sector, geographic location, image and demographics are all at play. It is important to provide the regional context before presenting demand and skills supply data. In this section: Fife’s contribution to Scotland’s economy Key sectoral characteristics Key labour market performance Deprivation and living standards Earnings and commuting patterns Glasgow

Fife Region in Context (1)
The Fife region is a mixed urban and rural economy which generates around 5% of the total output of Scotland as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. The region’s proportion of the Scotland total has slipped back marginally over time and Fife suffered a fall in output following the recession until GVA has since then increased strongly in 2013 and 2014, where total GVA was £6,344m in real prices. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy Total GVA in the region and the region’s share of total Scotland GVA Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The manufacturing sector is important to the Fife economy in terms of output as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA), and at 19% this is the largest sector in the region. GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced Following this, it is the human health and social work and the retail sectors that are the most important. There is a slightly weaker professional, business and financial services sector in Fife than nationally. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Industrial Structure of the Region (GVA by sector) 2014 Total GVA (£m) at 2013 prices Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Glasgow

There were 135,100 employed in the Fife region in 2015, 700 fewer than in the previous year. These are people employed in VAT or PAYE-registered businesses and so excludes those who are self-employed and work for smaller firms. The fall in employment indicates the weakness of the economic recovery. Employment had been increasing in Fife between 2010 and See Section 7 on Where are the Jobs and Section 9 on the Labour Market. Key Labour Market Performance Employment change in the Region, Scotland and Great Britain Source: Business Register Employment Survey Glasgow

There remain areas of deprivation within the region, particularly in some of the Fife towns, and the number of data zones in the most deprived 10% in Scotland increased in 2016 to its highest level since the index of deprivation was produced. Increasing access to opportunities for all is a priority for the region. For more information see Section 7 on the Labour Market. A greater proportion of household have incomes lower than £15,000 per annum than the Scotland average. Deprivation and Living Standards Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: Scottish Household Survey Fife also has a significant proportion of households earning more than £40,000 per annum, 17%, close to the Scotland average. This illustrates the difference in incomes for households in the region. Glasgow

The Fife region comprises the local authority area of Fife. Commuting into the City of Edinburgh for employment is commonplace, with access from Fife improved with the addition of the new Forth crossing. More information is at Section 8: The People of the Fife region. Commuting Flows At the time of the last Census, almost one in four commuted out of the region for work, the vast majority of these to the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region. Source: 2011 Census Glasgow

5. Fife: Economic Performance
The economic performance of the region is a critical driver of the demand for skills. Successful businesses need high levels of productivity, with skills an important component of this, although not the only one, particularly as business processes become more mechanised. Economic performance is measured using Gross Value Added per worker as the best measure of productivity. In this section: Total GVA and GVA growth rates GVA per employee (productivity) GVA per employee by sector Forecast GVA growth Glasgow

Economic Performance (1)
Total GVA in the Fife region has increased since 2009, following sharp decreases in the 2008 and 2009, where the region was negatively affected by the global financial crises. GVA growth was particularly strong in 2013, with an increase of more than 7%, and the growth in output continued above the Scotland average in In 2014, GVA was £6,344m, in 2013 prices. Total GVA in Fife ( ) Source: Oxford Economics Total GVA £m at 2013 prices 2004 £18,850 6.3% 4.1% 2005 £20,035 -0.7% 3.7% 2006 £19,897 -0.4% 1.7% 2007 £19,824 1.3% 2008 £20,075 -2.0% -3.6% 2009 £19,676 -4.3% 2010 £18,837 2.0% 1.8% 2011 £19,208 -0.6% -0.2% 2012 £19,097 2.9% 2.6% 2013 £19,647 6.4% 4.3% 2014 £20,914 3.5% 2.8% Glasgow

GVA per worker is a proxy measure for productivity. It describes the region’s output in relation to the numbers in employment.. Again this is heavily influenced by the sector composition of the regional economy. Sectors such as manufacturing and high value added services such as financial and professional services are typically more productive than others. Fife still has a strong manufacturing output and GVA per worker is close to the Scotland average, increasing since 2011. GVA Per Employee (Productivity) Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

GVA output is forecast to grow in the Fife region, but at a rate slower than the Scotland average. Growth of 13.0% is forecast 2015 to 2024, compared to 15.9% for Scotland. Total GVA is therefore forecast to grow by an average of 1.4% per year over the period, slightly below the Scottish rate of 1.7% per year. Uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU has dampened near-term growth prospects. GVA Output Growth to 2024 Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Fife region’s GVA growth in recent years is expected to continue. Almost 70% of GVA growth in the Fife region will be provided by private services with the largest contributions from wholesale and retail trade, real estate and professional, technical & scientific services, although manufacturing and construction too will grow. Information and communication is expected to enjoy the fastest rate of growth (average 3.4% per year), albeit from a low base, followed closely by professional scientific & technical services (3.2% per year). Forecast Output Growth by Sector Glasgow

6. Fife: Business Base In this section:
The business base of the region is a strong determinant of the economic performance described in the previous section. Successful businesses need skilled and effective employees. This section presents an analysis of the business base by its industrial sector composition and other characteristics. In this section: Total number of businesses and growth rates Business base by sector Growth sector businesses Business base by size Business density Business birth, death and survival rates Self employment Glasgow

Business Base (1) There were 9,010 VAT and PAYE registered businesses in Fife in The region’s business base increased faster than the Scotland average between 2014 and 2015, although the total number of employees in employment contracted slightly. The growth rate from 2014 to 2015 was 9.4% compared to 7.3% for Scotland. Total Number of Businesses and Growth Rates Number of businesses by year from 2010 – and growth rate comparators Source: UK Business Counts Change in number of business Glasgow

Business Base (2) Business Base by Sector, 2015
Almost one in five businesses in Fife (18%) are in the professional, scientific and technical sector, close to the Scotland average of 19%. 12% of businesses are in the construction sector, above the Scotland average of 11%. Other proportionately well represented sectors are accommodation and food services (9% versus 8%), arts and related businesses (9% versus 8%) and production (7% versus 6%). Business Base by Sector, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (3) Growth Sectors
The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy identifies six growth sectors, detailed below, where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage. Of the growth sector businesses, the financial and business services sector is the largest, accounting for 37% of the total. Sustainable tourism businesses account for 22% of the total, reflecting that the sector is important to the Fife region (it also accounts for 9% of all employment). Although no more concentrated than nationally for businesses, the energy sector is also important to the Fife economy. A definition of growth sectors can be found in Appendix 1. Growth Sectors Number of businesses by growth sector 2015 – and proportion of all growth sector businesses Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database The number of businesses in growth sectors increased by 5.4% in However, at 42% of all businesses, growth sector businesses in the Fife region account for a lower proportion of the total compared to Scotland as a whole (46%). Glasgow

Business Base (4) Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013
Although just 4% of growth sector businesses, the energy sector (including renewables) contributes almost half of all growth sector GVA (46%). The next greatest contributors to growth sector GVA are the financial and business services sector (19%) and sustainable tourism (19%). Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013 Source: Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Total GVA (£m) at basic prices of Scottish Government Growth Sectors by sector, 2013 Some figures are supressed due to data being disclosive Growth sector total GVA as a % of all Growth Sector GVA, 2013 Glasgow

Business Base (5) Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015
Fife has a similar profile of businesses by employment size as Scotland. The region has a slightly lower proportion of businesses employing between 50 and 249, and a slightly higher proportion employing between 10 and 49. Business density in Fife is 245 business per 10,000 people compared to 313 per 10,000 in Scotland, partly reflecting the level of out commuting from the region. Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 Number of businesses by employee size band and by proportion of all businesses, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (6) Business survival rates in Fife are higher than for Scotland and Great Britain. In all, 49% of businesses started in Fife in 2010 had survived until 2014, compared to 48% for both Scotland and Great Britain. The business birth rate in the region has been consistently below the Scotland and Great Britain rates, although there has been a sharp increase in both 2013 and 2014. Business Birth and Death Rates ( ) and Survival Rates ( ) Note: A business is deemed to have survived if still active 5 years after birth. Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-year Population Estimates Glasgow

Business Base (7) Self-Employment
Self-employment rates in Fife have typically been below the Scotland average, which combined with low business density suggests a weak culture of enterprise in the Fife region. At the same time, self-employment rates have increased to 9.4% in 2014 and 9.8% in 2015, although rates are still below the Scotland average of 10.8% and the Great Britain rate of 13.9% Self-Employment Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec each year Glasgow

7. Fife: Where are the Jobs?
Analysing the employment base of the region provides important information on the nature and functioning of the labour market. There have been significant occupational shifts in Scotland, reflected in changes in Fife, where higher skilled occupation employment continues to increase. There has been jobs recovery since the recession, but not all of these have been good quality jobs. In this section: Total employment and rate of change Employment by sector and change over time Sectoral specialism Employment by occupation and change Non standard jobs – part time and non permanent Resident and workplace earnings Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (1) Total Employment and Change 2009-2015
There were 135,100 employees VAT and PAYE registered businesses in Fife in 2015, 700 fewer than in This was the first decrease in employment following year on year increases during the economic recovery between 2010 and As with other regions, Fife lost jobs during the recession, however job losses in 2015 indicates the weakness of the economic recovery in the region. Total Employment and Change Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (2) Employment by sector provides important information on the industrial composition of the regional economy. Employment in the health sector comprises the largest share of employment (15%), close to the Scotland average of 16%. The continuing importance of the manufacturing sector is evident, with production accounting for 13% of all employment, 17,700 jobs, more concentrated than nationally. Retail (11%) and public services (public administration and defence, 9%, and education 9%) are also proportionately well represented. Employment by Sector and proportion of Total Employment 2015 The Fife economy is under-represented in a number of higher value added service sectors. These include professional, scientific and technical services, 5% of the total compared to 7% across Scotland and the slightly lower value added sector of business administration and support, 4% compared to 7% across Scotland. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (3) Sector Specialisms
Marrying employment growth trends by sector with the size and concentration of the sector in a region can provide important information on the dynamics of the labour market. Concentration of a sector is the extent to which employment in the sector is above (or below) sector concentration at the Scotland level. Sector Specialisms Sectors above the horizontal line are more concentrated in the region than in Scotland, those below the line less so. Sectors to the right of the vertical line are larger in employment terms than five years ago, to the left less so. Larger bubbles reflect higher sector employment. The large and concentrated production is illustrated right. Although smaller the public admin and defence and construction sectors are concentrated and have grown in size in the last five years. Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (4) Employment by Occupation (2015)
The occupational profile of the region is important because occupation is often linked to skills requirements. There has been a steady and continuing shift to more professional occupations. Fife demonstrates this transition where now almost one in five residents work in professional occupations (19%), close to the Scotland and Great Britain averages. The majority of the 20% or so workers commuting to Edinburgh are in professional occupations meaning that fewer of those working in Fife are in professional jobs. Skilled trades and elementary occupations are proportionately well represented in Fife, reflecting what remains in many ways a traditional economy with a strong manufacturing base. Employment by Occupation (2015) Change Over Time Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (5) Part Time Employment 2005-2015
Over a quarter (26%) of those in employment work part-time and this is the same proportion as Scotland and Great Britain. More of the jobs created in the economic recovery have been part-time jobs. There are also 6.3% in non-permanent employment, a higher percentage than nationally (5.4%). Nationally, 2.2% are employed on zero hours contracts. Part Time Employment Non-Permanent Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey Non-permanent employment is the proportion of all of those of working age in employment types such as fixed- term contracts, temporary agency, casual or seasonal work. The increase in non-permanent employment reflects the changing nature of employment. Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (6) Some sectors are typically better paid than others, and the industrial base of the region is often an indicator of average wage levels. The composition of the industrial base within a region also affects workplace pay levels. Average gross weekly workplace earnings in Fife are £439 for all workers, well below the Scotland average of £492. By contrast, the gross weekly residence-based earnings are much higher, at £477 for all workers, closer to the national average of £492. This suggests that many of those commuting out of the region to work, often south to the City of Edinburgh or north to Dundee, earn above the national average. Average Weekly Workplace and Residence-based Earnings, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Glasgow

8. Fife: Its People In this section: Population growth
The demographic characteristics of a region are extremely important in determining current and future demand for skills. The age profile of the population, the number of young people and elderly, the increasing proportion of retirees, are all contributory factors. The movement of people within a region, and into and out of a region, also affect the labour market and the supply of skills available to employers. In this section: Population growth Population profile Population projections Net migration Travel to work data Glasgow

People (1) Population Change over Time
Fife’s population has grown slower than the Scotland average over the 10 years 2005 to 2015, with both lagging behind the rate of growth in Great Britain of 7.8%. The population of Fife increased slightly slower than the rate for over the last year ( ), +0.2% compared to +0.5%. Population Change over Time Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Fife Scotland 2005 355,450 5,110,200 2006 357,260 5,133,100 2007 358,750 5,170,000 2008 360,050 5,202,900 2009 361,410 5,231,900 2010 362,610 5,262,200 2011 365,300 5,299,900 2012 366,210 5,313,600 2013 366,900 5,327,700 2014 367,250 5,347,600 2015 368,080 5,373,000 Change 12,630 262,800 % Change 4% 5% Glasgow

People (2) Age profile of the Region
Fife has an older age profile than the Scotland average. This is driven by growth of the 65+ age band since (+23%, 13,600) compared to Scotland ( +18%.) Fife has also seen a higher decline in the age band than Scotland (-18% versus -16%.) Overall, the working age population of the region decreased by 500 over the 10 years to 2015. Age profile of the Region Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (3) Population Projections (2012-2037)
Source: National Records of Scotland Fife’s population is projected to grow at the same rate as Scotland as a whole to 2037 ( both +8%). The working age population however is projected to fall faster than nationally (-6% compared to -4%). Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population is projected to become older. Year Fife Scotland 2014 368,524 5,346,120 2015 369,879 5,365,420 2016 371,272 5,385,719 2017 372,742 5,406,997 2018 374,227 5,429,012 2019 375,782 5,451,660 2020 377,333 5,474,391 2021 378,867 5,497,079 2022 380,385 5,519,588 2023 381,886 5,541,816 2024 383,361 5,563,670 2025 384,812 5,585,040 2026 386,216 5,605,814 2027 387,569 5,625,892 2028 388,867 5,645,150 2029 390,104 5,663,541 2030 391,292 5,681,121 2031 392,414 5,697,808 2032 393,468 5,713,523 2033 394,463 5,728,318 2034 395,404 5,742,297 2035 396,300 5,755,558 2036 397,159 5,768,217 2037 397,989 5,780,371 Change 29,465 434,251 % Change 8% Glasgow

People (4) Net Migration
There are been variable net migration into Fife in recent years. Net migration decreased between 2010/11 and 2012/13, from 2,076 to 304. It has since recovered to 1,228 in 2014/15, although not back to 2010/11 levels. The age band with the highest net migration in the year 2014/2015 was those aged (328). Net Migration Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (5) Travel to Work (2011 Census)
The majority (76%) of those resident in Fife who are employed also work in Fife. Conversely, there are low levels of out-commuting from Fife, with 24% of those resident in Fife who are employed leaving the area for work. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number
People (6) The workplace population of Fife at the time of the last Census was 115,635, and of these workers, 88% were resident in Fife (102,139). A much lower number of Fife workers were commuting from elsewhere in Scotland into the region (12,264). Overall, there was a net outflow of workers to Fife of over 18,000. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Note: Not currently available in the data matrix Council area of workplace Total workplace population Lives and works in the area Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number Net flow of workers Works in the area but lives elsewhere in Scotland Works in the area but lives in the rest of UK Lives in the area but works elsewhere in Scotland Lives in the area but works in the rest of the UK Within Scotland From the rest of the UK Total Fife 115,635 102,139 12,264 1,232 30,847 976 -18,583 256 -18,327 Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

9. Fife: Labour Market In this section: Age composition of workforce
The functioning of the labour market is influenced by labour market participation. Those unemployed or economically inactive will not be directly contributing to the economic success of the region, although their situation may be temporary, or indeed those inactive may be learning and studying and be a future contributor to the region. In this section: Age composition of workforce Economic activity Qualifications Participation Unemployment Glasgow

Labour Market (1) Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates
Fife’s economic activity and inactivity rates have remained relatively stable between 2005 and 2015, although economic activity decreased (to 77%) and inactivity increased (to 23%) in By 2015 both rates had recovered, to 79% and 21% respectively. Scotland’s rates have remained stable throughout, staying at 77-78% and 22-23% respectively. Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (2) Qualifications
The highest level qualifications of the resident working age population is a useful barometer of skills attainment levels. There remains a cohort in regional economies with no formal qualifications which used to be associated with older workers. Jobs increasingly require higher levels of qualification, including so-called entry level jobs. The increasingly qualified working age population in Fife is illustrated, with 43% now qualified to SCQF Level 7-12, in line with Scotland. There is a lower proportion of Fife residents with no qualifications, 7% compared to the Scotland average of 9%. Qualifications Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (3) Participation
The Participation Measure is a new measure which provides the ability to identify the status of the wider cohort – not just those who have left school. Participation of young people aged in Fife was 88%, below the Scottish rate of 90%. Participation Source: Skills Development Scotland Fife Scotland Number % Total Cohort (16-19) 15,645 Participating (16-19) 13,812 88% 90% Education 11,280 72% 71% Employment 2,206 14% 17% Other Training & Development 326 2% Not Participating (16-19) 784 5% 4% Unemployed Seeking 533 3% Unemployed not Seeking 251 1% Unconfirmed Status (16-19) 1,049 7% 6% Glasgow

Labour Market (4) The way unemployment is measured is changing with the introduction of Universal Credit. As such, the data is regarded as ‘experimental’ and care is needed when comparing to previous data (all regions have recorded a fall in claimant count unemployment under the new measure). Unemployment – Claimant Count (includes Universal Credit) – experimental measure Source: Job Seekers Allowance Year Fife Scotland Great Britain May 2005 1,245 12,760 115,375 May 2006 1,340 13,265 141,970 May 2007 1,190 12,490 145,310 May 2008 560 7,825 99,735 May 2009 850 10,320 123,545 May 2010 1,425 20,870 252,170 May 2011 1,400 20,340 203,195 May 2012 2,780 35,725 378,480 May 2013 2,960 38,090 410,710 May 2014 2,295 29,470 310,865 May 2015 1,440 19,145 197,275 May 2016 1,125 16,515 158,520 Glasgow

10. Fife: Skills Challenges
Employers have specific skills needs, either amongst those they are seeking to recruit, or amongst those in their existing workforce. This are not always available. Skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) relate to the skills shortages amongst those being recruited, and skills gaps shortages relate to skills deficiencies within the existing workforce. The 2015 UKCES Employer Survey provides timely data in relation to these and other employer issues. In this section: Skills shortages Skills gaps Recruitment activity Skills under-utilisation Glasgow

Skills Challenges (1) Skills Shortages
The UKCES Employer Survey 2015 data indicates that across Fife skills shortage vacancies are as prevalent as across Scotland at 0.8%. Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages account for 0.9% of the workforce, compared to 1.1% in Scotland as a whole. In all, 11% of establishments report at least one hard to fill vacancy in Fife compared to 8% across Scotland. Skills Shortages Source: UKCES Fife Scotland Hard to fill vacancies as % of workforce 0.9% 1.1% Skills shortage vacancies as % of workforce 0.8% Glasgow

Skills Challenges(2) Skills Gaps
Skills gaps are those in employment that are regarded by employers are lacking some of the skills required for their job. Around 7% of the workforce in Fife have skills gaps compared to 5% nationally and employers in Fife are more likely to report skills gaps than the Scottish average. Skills gaps particularly prevalent in machine operatives in Fife 73% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally) Skills Gaps Source: UKCES Glasgow

Skills Challenges (3) Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation
56% of Fife businesses had recruited staff over the past year prior to the 2015 UKCES survey, above the national average. The number of vacancies is above the Scottish average with 20% of employers in Fife with at least one vacancy. In addition, 33% of employers in Fife have staff who are under-utilised, and again this is above the national average. Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation Source: UKCES Glasgow

11. Fife: Schools Data In this section: School roll numbers
The destination of those leaving school has a clear bearing on the labour market, whether this is for employment, education and training, or none of these. The numbers leaving school and projected school roll numbers are also important. Those at school will form a major part of the future labour market. In this section: School roll numbers School roll projections School leaver destinations Glasgow

Schools Data (1) Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group, 2015
There were 19,905 secondary school pupils in Fife in Of this, there were slightly higher proportions of S3 pupils (19% v 18%) and slightly lower proportions of S6 pupils (11% v 12%) in Fife than across Scotland. Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group, 2015 Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census 2015 Fife Scotland S1 3,679 50,813 S2 3,558 49,514 S3 3,686 50,197 S4 3,615 51,078 S5 3,095 45,817 S6 2,272 33,936 Total Pupils 19,905 281,355 Glasgow

Schools Data (2) Secondary School Roll Number Projections, 2014-2018
Based on the latest available projections (2012), secondary school roll numbers are projected to remain relatively stable through to This is compared to a 2% drop in numbers for Scotland in the same period of time. Secondary School Roll Number Projections, Source: Scottish Government Pupil Projections Fife Scotland 2014 20,200 282,800 2015 19,900 278,000 2016 275,300 2017 20,100 275,100 2018 20,300 277,900 Glasgow

Schools Data (3) School Leaver Destinations
Between 2013/14 and 2014/15, Fife has seen a 1% increase in school leavers entering a positive destination, although Fife is still below the Scotland rate of 92%. There are lower proportions of leavers entering Higher Education than in Scotland (33% v. 37%), with the proportion of Fife school leavers entering Higher Education fallen by 4 percentage points between 2013/14 and 2014/15. School Leaver Destinations Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset 2013/14 2014/15 Fife Scotland Positive Destination 90% 92% 91% Higher Education 37% 39% 33% Further Education 31% 24% 28% 23% Training 2% 3% 4% Employment 19% 25% 26% Voluntary Work 0% 1% Activity Agreement Unemployed Seeking 8% 7% 6% Unemployed Non-Seeking Unknown Glasgow

12. Fife: Skills Provision
There is a wide variety of skills and learning provision available which is designed to meet the future skills needs of the economy. Amongst this is the provision commissioned by Skills Development Scotland, notably via the Apprenticeship family of products (Modern Apprenticeships, Foundation Apprenticeships and Graduate Level Apprenticeships) and the Employability Fund and delivered by approved training providers including Colleges, Universities and Private training providers. In this section: Modern Apprenticeships by participant characteristic and framework grouping Foundation Apprenticeships Graduate Level Apprenticeships Employability Fund and Certificate of Work Readiness starts Glasgow

Skills Provision (1) MA Total Number of Starts
Modern Apprenticeships (MA) help employers to develop their workforce by training new and existing employees. For individuals, an MA lets them earn a wage while gaining a qualification. After increasing for four consecutive years MA uptake in Fife fell in 2014/15 but grew again in 2015/16 to 7% of the national total. In Fife 48% of apprentices fall within the age group, slightly less than in Scotland overall (50%). MA Total Number of Starts MA Starts 2015/16, by Age Glasgow

Skills Provision (2) MA Starts by Gender 2010-2016
The gender split in MA uptake in Fife is broadly similar to the national picture with a greater uptake from men than women. The split has fluctuated over the reporting period but in 2015/16 61% of individual starts were male and 39% women. More information on uptake by gender for different frameworks can be found in Skills Provision (4). In 2015/16 the uptake of MA s by disabled participants was similar to the national picture and much less than the 19% of working age population in Scotland with a disability. MA Starts by Gender MA Starts by Disability Glasgow

Skills Provision (3) MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16
In 2015/16, 1.1% of MA participants in Fife came from a Black Minority and Ethnic (BME) background compared to 1.6% across the country. This figure is significantly below the overall BME working population in Scotland of 3.1% (APS 2014) which suggests more could be done to encourage people from BME backgrounds to embark on a Modern Apprenticeship. MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16

Skills Provision (4) In 2015/16 in Fife, the most popular MA framework group was Construction & Related (includes trades such as plumbing and joinery), which was also one of the most gender segregated groups with 99% male starts. Other male dominated groups include Engineering & Energy related (96%) and Transport and Logistics (83%). Female participation was highest in Sport, Health & Social Care 90% and Personal Services 94%. Modern Apprenticeship Starts by Framework Group and Gender Note: figures rounded to the nearest 5, figures less than 5 have suppressed. Percentages have been calculated on unrounded figures. Glasgow

Skills Provision (5) MA Achievement Rates 2010/11- 2015/16
MA achievement rates give the proportion of MA starts who completed their apprenticeship: gaining their target qualification and reaching work-based learning aims. Achievement rates in Fife have remained relatively consistent, only fluctuating four percentage points between the lowest and highest over the reporting period. In 2015/16 73% of MA starts successfully completed in Fife compared to 76% across Scotland. MA Achievement Rates 2010/ /16 Glasgow

Skills Provision (6) Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) were developed to help school pupils gain work experience and access work-based learning. S4 and S5 students spend time at college or with a local employer, and complete the FA alongside other subjects like National 5s and Highers. The qualification takes two years and can lead to employment or further study at college or university. FAs were piloted in some regions in 2014 and participation has grown over the past three years. The data shows uptake from the past two years and anticipated uptake for 2016/18. Foundation Apprenticeships, National Uptake 2014/ /18 Foundation Apprenticeships In 2016/18, the national uptake of FLA is expected to be over 300. In 2016/18 there are eight frameworks available, linked to six key sectors: Business Skills, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Financial Services, IT Hardware, IT Software, Social Services CYP, Social Services & Healthcare SDS aims to make FLA part of every secondary school’s offer by 2020. Glasgow

Skills Provision (7) Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development
Graduate Level Apprenticeships (GLAs) provide work-based learning opportunities up to Master’s Degree level for employees. They have been created in partnership with industry and the further and higher education sector. Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development GLAs are currently available in: ICT/Digital: Software Development ICT/Digital: IT Management for Business Engineering: manufacturing and Design Civil Engineering Over the course of 2017 the intention is to expand the offer to include: Business and Management SCQF Level 10 Engineering (Instrumentation, Measurement and Control SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Cyber Security SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Digital Media SCQF Level 10) Life Sciences SCQF Level 10 Children and Young People SCQF Level 8 Glasgow

Skills Provision (8) The Employability Fund (EF) supports locally delivered services designed to encourage unemployed people to move towards work. SDS administers EF on behalf of Scottish Government.* The uptake of EF starts in Fife represents over 7% of the total participants in Scotland. In terms of gender, the uptake in Fife was more equally split between male and female participants (56% male, 44% female) than in Scotland overall (64% male, 36% female). Employability Fund Starts 2015/16, Total and by Gender *All data provided relates only to SDS funded activity. As other entities administer EF programme the data will not reflect total participation Glasgow

Skills Provision (9) The Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) addresses the challenge for young people of gaining work experience and workplace skills when entering the labour market. The CWR provides young people with 190 hours of work experience and an assessment from an employer to prove to future employers they have established workplace competencies. In 2015/16 10% of the total number of individual CRW starts and 10% of employers involved in the scheme were located in Fife. Certificate of Work Readiness 2015/16, Starts and Employers Glasgow

13. Fife: College Activity
Colleges provide a range of opportunities for all students, regardless of prior achievement, from access courses to degree level qualifications to meet national, regional and local economic needs. Qualifications include National 4 & 5s, NQ, HNC, HND and Degrees. Colleges also provide qualifications towards Foundation and Modern Apprenticeships. Data in this section relates to enrolments at Fife College and was provided by Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: College activity by age and gender Travel to study: location of students College activity by subject Gaelic language activity College activity: FE/HE Outcomes and destinations Glasgow

College Activity (1) 2015/16 college enrolments
In 2015/16, there were 19,290 enrolments at Fife College, 7% of all enrolments across Scotland. Most enrolments were on part-time courses, similar to the trend nationally. Nationally, the 25+ group was the largest overall in terms of enrolments however within the region the 16 and under age group was the largest. Of all part-time enrolments, 43% were aged 16 and under and 3% of full-time enrolments were also in this age cohort. This is reflective of the extensive activity that occurs between schools and Fife College. 2015/16 college enrolments 2015/16 college enrolments by age Note: Unless otherwise stated all data is for total college enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (2) 2015/16 college enrolments by gender
Nationally in 2015/16, females (51%) accounted for slightly more enrolments than males (49%). The inverse was true at Fife College, with 51% male and 49% female uptake. In terms of home area, the majority of students (78% of enrolments) came from within Fife. However, the college attracted more than one fifth (21%) of enrolments from elsewhere in Scotland. 2015/16 college enrolments by gender 2015/16 college enrolments by home area Glasgow

College Activity (3) College enrolments by SIMD
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) measure shows that in 2015/16 a lower proportion (8%) of college enrolments at Fife College came from the 10% most deprived areas compared to Scotland as a whole (15%). However compared to Scotland a greater proportion came from the 40% most deprived areas (43% vs. 32%). Compared to colleges across Scotland, Fife College had proportionally more enrolments in Higher Education (HE) (21% vs. 18%) and fewer in Further Education (FE) (79% vs. 82%) than the national trend. College enrolments by SIMD College enrolments by HE/FE Note: Further Education (FE) refers to courses leading to qualifications up to SCQF level 7. Higher Education (HE) refers to courses at SCQF level 7 and above. Glasgow

College Activity (4) Of the 19,290 enrolments at Fife College, almost half (47%) of all enrolments were in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects which was much higher than the national average. This largely resulted from 57% of part-time enrolments being in STEM. The majority of this is activity that occurred between Fife College and schools. Over half of the males enrolled at the college studied a STEM subject. Although the figure was lower for females (35%) this was well above the national average of 10%. Engineering/technology had the greatest number of STEM enrolments in 2015/16, accounting for almost one third of STEM activity. College enrolments - STEM subject and mode of study Ten largest STEM subject areas by total enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (5) Engineering was the largest subject area in terms of full-time enrolments at Fife College in 2015/16. It was also one of the most gender segregated subjects with males accounting for 94% of those studying the subject. Across Scotland, Care was the largest subject area by full-time enrolments. Regionally, gender segregation was greatest in Hairdressing (97% female) . College enrolments by full-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (6) In 2015/16, as with full-time enrolment, Engineering was the most common subject studied at Fife College on a part-time basis accounting for 52% of all enrolments. The subject part-time had good female uptake (39%) compared to male dominated uptake of the subject on a full-time basis (94%). This is also positive given that engineering is traditionally a male dominated industry. Gender imbalance in part-time subjects was greatest in Hairdressing (95% female) and Construction (93% male). College enrolments by part-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (7) Gaelic FE enrolments
Enrolment of students on Gaelic FE courses varies considerably across the country. The Highlands & Islands had the greatest uptake, with enrolments increasing by 14% from 2014/15 to 2015/16. Gaelic uptake across other regions is mixed, with nine regions, including Fife reporting no Gaelic college activity. Overall Gaelic enrolments across Scotland increased by 12% from 2014/15 to 2015/16, rising from 1,260 to 1,405. Gaelic FE enrolments Note: Data is institution rather than resident-based Glasgow

College Activity (8) 2015/16 FE student outcomes
In 2015/16, 62% of Fife College FE students successfully completed their course. This was lower than the 66% success rate achieved across Scotland. In terms of destination (2014/15), 11% entered employment and 86% of learners progressed onto additional education or training including higher level study or Modern Apprenticeships. 2015/16 FE student outcomes 2014/15 college destinations Note: Completed partial success indicates that a student completed the course but did not gain the qualification. This also includes students who gained employment before finishing the course or transferred to another course Glasgow

14. Fife: University Provision
Scotland has strong university provision with more world-class universities than any other country by head of population. There are five universities in Scotland that are ranked in the world’s top 200 (2015 Times Higher Education rankings). Scotland’s universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In Fife, the University of St. Andrews and SRUC Elmwood provides educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region. Data in this section was provided by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: Study destination for region’s residents Students numbers within the region by gender, age and home area Subject choice Student graduation by level Student destinations by employment and industry Glasgow

University Provision (1)
There were two Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in Fife in 2014/15. These were the University of St. Andrews and Scotland’s Rural College Elmwood campus (SRUC Elmwood). The largest institution was the University of St. Andrews which accounted for almost all (97%) of the university students in the region. Students at HEIs in Fife 2014/15 Note: Unless otherwise stated, data on this and subsequent slides is institution, not resident based and refers to university campuses located in Scotland and excludes study with the Open University Scotland, campuses outside of Scotland and incomplete records.

In 2014/15, the number of students at HEIs in Fife increased (2% growth) compared to the previous year and comprised 5% of the Scotland total. Across Scotland HE students numbers grew by 1%. The gender split was 57% female and 43% male uptake, similar to the respective national uptake of 58% female and 42% male across Scotland. 2013/14-14/15 total student number 2014/15 HEI students, by gender Glasgow

In 2014/15, the largest student cohort by age at St. Andrews and SRUC Elmwood were those in the age range. This was similar to the national picture. A low proportion of students attending Fife universities came from within the region (6%). Fife universities attracted a higher that average proportion of students from elsewhere in the UK (26% vs. 13%) and outside the UK (46% vs. 24%) which highlights the attractiveness of the region’s university offer. 2014/15 university students, by age 2014/15 university students, by home area Glasgow

In 2014/15, residents of Fife studied at a number of Higher Education Institutions across Scotland. Within the top five was one local institution - the University of St. Andrews. The Open University was a popular choice for Fife residents and attendees from the region represented 6% of the total Open University uptake across Scotland (17,075). HEIs in the neighbouring cities of Dundee and Edinburgh feature strongly in the top five. Top 5 universities attended by Fife residents 2014/15

In 2014/15 at universities in Fife, Social Studies had the single greatest proportion of enrolments (17%) . This was significantly higher uptake than across Scotland (9%). Historical and philosophical studies and Physical Sciences also accounted for proportionally more enrolments in the region than they did nationally. This is likely a result of the specialism’s of the University of St. Andrews and does not correlate to the industries of the region. 2014/15 total enrolment of students at HE Institutions, by subject Glasgow

In 2014/15, 68% of students who studied at HEIs in Fife, graduated with a first degree. The remaining 32% achieved a postgraduate qualification. Which was very similar to the national trend with 65% of all Scottish graduates completing a first degree and 35% completing a postgraduate course. 2014/15 university graduates by level of study Glasgow

Data on this and the following two slides was provided by the HESA Graduate Destinations Survey which surveys a sample of Higher Education Institute graduates six months after leaving university. In 2014/15, the majority of graduates from HEIs in Fife entered full-time or part-time work (58%), which was lower than the percentage nationally (72%). On the other hand, 29% of graduates from Fife HEIs pursued further study compared to 16% nationally. 2014/15 university graduates by employment status Glasgow

In 2014/15, university graduates from St. Andrews and SRUC Elmwood went on to work in a range of occupations. The largest percentage (33%) were engaged as professionals and the smallest percentage (0.4%) as operatives. Proportionally fewer graduates from HEIs in Fife went to work in higher level occupations compared to the trend nationally. 2014/15 university graduates by occupation Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from the University of St. Andrews and SRUC Elmwood worked in a wide range of industries. The largest group entered the education sector (13%) followed by professional, scientific and technical activities (9%). This was broadly in line with national trends. 2014/15 university graduates, employment by industry Glasgow

15. Fife: Jobs and skills changes
This section will outline forecasted changes in employment from 2015 to 2024, and the nature of changing demand for qualifications in specific occupational areas. It will also consider longer term changes in the labour market and future expansion and replacement employment demand. In this section: Forecasts demand for jobs and how these may change Changing occupational and qualification demand Long-term changes in the labour market Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to rise by 0.1% per year on average over the period, significantly ahead of the Scottish average of 0.2%. Growth at this pace equates to over 300 additional jobs in the area by Construction is expected to see most growth (800 jobs) in the area over the period. The professional, scientific and technical and administrative and support activities sector are also expected to experience growth, creating 600 jobs each. In contrast, significant jobs losses are expected in manufacturing (1,500 jobs) and public administration (1,200 jobs). Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Total Employment Growth Fife Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

Growth is mixed across the occupational groupings. The biggest expected increases over are in skilled trades and caring, leisure and other service occupations (200 people each) followed by managers, directors and senior officials, sales and customer service and elementary occupations (100 people each). The biggest decreases are expected in administrative and secretarial occupations and process, plant and machine operatives, forecast to see a fall of 500 jobs and 200 jobs respectively. Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand Fife Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The majority of openings in Fife over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for 25% of the 58,200 openings expected to be created between 2016 and The remaining opportunities will mainly be for individuals qualified to SCQF levels 5-6, equivalent to 35% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level. Forecast employment change by Qualification ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Replacement demand will result in over 58,100 openings within Fife over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 100 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 58,200 openings over this period. Openings will be highest within professional and elementary occupations, largely driven by replacement demand. Combined these will account for 48% of openings in the region. The total requirement for workers in skilled trades and sales and customer service occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

16. Fife: What are the key implications for the region?
The Regional Skills Assessments provide the national policy context, the national economic picture and trends and the regional position. The regional perspective covers in some depth the demand for skills, current and forecast, as well as skills activity in place to meet these needs. There is a wide range of data, with further data available in the accompanying data matrix. This final section draws out some of the key implications for improving the performance of labour markets. These are not solutions for partners, but rather implications from the analysis upon which skills investment planning decisions can be made. In this section: Review of the demand for skills Review of current skills activity to meet need Key implications for skills investment planning and recommended focus for action Glasgow

Fife Region: Headline Summary (1)
. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics The good economic recovery since 2010, especially in 2013 and 2014 where jobs growth out-paced the Scotland average, stalled in There were 700 fewer jobs in the region compared to the previous year, a loss of 1%, at a time of a very slight increase across Scotland. The sector composition of the region continued to shift in There were fewer jobs in health (-3,600), business administration and support (-900), production (-700) and retail (-400), At the same time there was growth in public administration & defense (+1,600), accommodation and food services (+1,400), finance and insurance (+1,300) and education (+700). Despite the fall in production in employment, the sector remains important to the Fife regional economy, with 17,700 employees, more concentrated than nationally. Public sector employment is also proportionately important – health is the largest sector for employment but there are proportionately more employed in public administration & defense, and education. Glasgow

. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued) The proportion employed in professional occupations has increased over the last 10 years, and is now close to the Scotland average. A greater proportion work in elementary occupations and in skilled trades, reflecting the manufacturing base. Almost 1 in 4 out-commutes from Fife, mostly to the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian region. Those working out of the region access better paid jobs. There was a big rise in the number of areas amongst the most 10% deprived in Scotland in 2016, reflecting inequalities within the region and lack of access to employment for many. A higher than average proportion of households in Fife have incomes below 15,000 per annum. The new measure of unemployment including Universal Claimants has shown falling claimants in Fife, and this has been the case nationally. The Fife rate however remains lower than the Scotland average. A similar proportion to Scotland are qualified to SCQF 7-12, when demand for these qualifications continues to increase. The population has increased over the last 10 years, although a rate slower than that for Scotland. It will increase by another 8% till 2037, yet the working age population will fall, and faster than for Scotland. Glasgow

. Skills Challenges Hard-to-fill vacancies, and skill shortage vacancies, are increasing in the region, and more Fife employers report these than the Scotland average. More Fife employers also report a skills gap than the Scotland average, and this affects a higher proportion of the workforce. Gaps are particularly prevalent amongst machine operatives and administration & clerical occupations. The findings suggest the skills in Fife are insufficient to meet employer demand, both amongst those in work and those in the wider labour market. Competition for higher paid jobs with Edinburgh will be part of the picture, particularly for higher level skills. There are also slightly more employers in the region reporting staff under-utilization of skills than average. Glasgow

. Skills Activity to Meet Current and Future Demand Work-based learning is critical to meeting skills development needs. There were 1,735 MA starts in 2015/2016, a strong increase on the previous year, and reflecting endeavors to increase work-based learning levels in the region. The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, retail & customer services, health & social care (with sport), transport & logistics, hospitality & tourism. Engineering & energy is sixth, accounting for 9% of MAs, although this is a lower proportion than the sector share of employment in the region. Other services including ICT professionals and financial services are modestly represented given their importance to Scotland’s economy. There is a continuing gender imbalance in many MA frameworks and MAs are still not commonplace in some sectors such as the Creative Industries. Glasgow

. Future Trends Employment growth is expected in professional, scientific & technical services and in construction, whereas job losses are expected in manufacturing and public sector services. Replacement demand is expected to generate more than 58,000 openings to More than half of these will be SCQF level 7 and above and almost 90% will be level 5 and above. This reaffirms the need for a strong skills base. The greatest number of openings will be in professional and elementary occupations, as well as in sales and care, leisure and other services occupations.. There will also be replacement demand in skilled trades. Glasgow

Fife Region: Key Implications (1)
. Recommended Areas of Focus Increasing the quality of jobs in the region. The most significant recent employment growth has been in services, including tourism and some parts of the public sector. The region has grown its financial and business services sector to some extent, however more needs to be done to increase the number of higher value added jobs based in the region. Increase the number of jobs in the region. Recent jobs growth has stalled, and there is a need to re-energise jobs growth. The manufacturing sector is forecast to decline over time, and there will be a need to replace these jobs. The region also remains over-reliant on public sector employment. Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. There will continue to be extreme competitive pressures in manufacturing, as well as services, that will demand high levels of business innovation and a skilled workforce. Employers in the region need to be helped and encouraged to address the evident workforce skills deficiencies. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). There are key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where growth and replacement demand is strong, including sales, customer services and and skilled trades. Accommodation and food services sector employment has grown, increasing demand for hospitality & tourism. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors. Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). The health and social care sector is an important sector, and the ageing population in the region will have increasing care needs that will need to be met over time. The specific needs of the manufacturing sector must continue to be met. There will be challenging times ahead for the sector, yet it still contributes a disproportionate amount of output. Engineering & related skills needs in the region, will need to be met by fit for purpose provision. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. Employment in the professional services has fallen, and the region needs to make sure there are sufficient skills to meet employer demand where this exists. A need to help those outside the labour market to access employment. There remain inequalities in the region, and the numbers in relative deprivation is increasing. There is a need to ensure that some groups do not become distanced from the labour market, or become entrenched in low pay sectors with limited progression opportunities. A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning a feature of this. Glasgow

Appendix: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Click here to go back to the main presentation: Where are the Jobs (3) - Sector Specialisms

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