Exterior LED Area Lights Christian Douglass Regional Technical Forum February 17, 2016

Objective Today, we are seeking a decision to adopt updates to the exterior LED area lights UES measure updates to the measure specification updates to baseline assumptions and energy savings updates to costs and lifetimes of LED products

Measure Overview Market Sector: Any Baseline Type: Current Practice Estimation Method: Unit Energy Savings (UES) Current Category: Proven Current Status: Active Current Sunset Date: February 29, 2016 Reason for Review: Measure sunsets this month Subcommittee Review: No

Background

Example of a Typical Area Light Photocell controlled Pole or wall mounted Also called: “barn lights”, “dusk-til-dawn lights”

Examples of LED Area Light Products LED screw-in lamp LED fixture

Some History Measure brought forth by Small and Rural Subcommittee in January of 2014 Much of measure details are informed by interviews conducted with regional utility personnel in 2011 and 2013 At January 2014 meeting, RTF sent measure back to staff to address a few comments and concerns, such as Including measure applications for both LED lamps and fixtures Making street lights ineligible for measure In February of 2014, RTF adopted measure as Proven For more detailed history, see January 2014 and February 2014 RTF meeting minutes

Current Measure Specification Implementation and product standards: “Installation of an LED lamp or fixture replacing an exterior, photocell-controlled HID lamp or fixture” Qualifying lamp and fixture replacements must be listed on an appropriate Qualified Products List (QPL) as outlined in the measure workbook Qualifying measures may not be used for street or roadway lighting purposes as defined in the workbook Fixtures subject to stricter standards dictated by code or city ordinance also do not qualify

Current Measure Spec (continued) Measure identifiers: As found lamp wattage and technology 100W High Intensity Discharge (HID)1 150W HID 175W Mercury Vapor (MV) 200W HID LED wattage 25-34W 35-44W 45-54W Replacement type Lamp (with or without a new photocell2) Fixture Example measure application: “45-54W LED lamp & new photocell replacing 150W HID lamp” 1 Includes metal halide and high pressure sodium 2 Some programs interested in requiring photocell replacement for greater O&M cost savings

How We Calculate the Current Unit Energy Savings (UES)

Important Assumptions Baseline is current practice 2011/2013 interview responses indicated replacement on burn-out (“when the customer calls”) Delivery verification guidance adopted in 2015 for this measure incorrectly listed baseline as pre-conditions Current baseline assumption is that nearly all replacement is “like-for-like” and there is no baseline LED penetration E.g. HID fixtures will be replaced with 100% HID fixtures One caveat to this rule is MV which uses an HID current practice baseline (based on interviews) Operating hours are assumed to be 4,380 hours per year (12 hrs per day, 365 days/yr) since photocell operation is required Most fixtures owned by utility; some are owned privately

Current Savings Calculation: an Example As found fixture: 150W HID (input power: 178W) Equivalent LED fixture1: 50W LED Current Practice Baseline: 178W * 100% + 50W * 0% = 178W Savings Calculation: (178W – 50W) * 4,380 hrs / 1,000 = 560 kWh LED market share assumed to be “less than 1%” 1 Based on utility interviews of what is happening “in the field” and manufacturer suggestions

Proposed Updates

List of Proposed Updates Measure specification Baseline assumptions Measure costs Measure life

List of Proposed Updates Measure specification Baseline assumptions Measure costs Measure life

Proposed Updates to Measure Spec Two proposed updates to the measure specification: Update requirement that qualifying lamps and fixtures can either be listed on specific Qualified Product Lists OR meet minimum technical requirements for efficacy and lumen maintenance (shown on next slide) Technical requirements taken from v3.1 of DesignLights Consortium (DLC) specification1 Remove measure identifier for “as found” lamp type and wattage Would allow measure to apply where there is no existing fixture More consistent with current practice definition More on how this impacts savings calculation in a few slides 1 https://www.designlights.org/content/qpl/productsubmit/categoryspecifications

Proposed Measure Specification Implementation and product standards: Installation of a photocell-controlled LED lamp or fixture Qualifying lamp and fixture replacements must be listed on the Lighting Design Lab Qualified Products List, the Design Lights Consortium Qualified Products List (v3.1), OR has the following technical specifications: Lamp or fixture with 250-4,999 lumens of light output has minimum efficacy of 65 l/W Lamp or fixture with 5,000-9,999 lumens of light output has minimum efficacy of 70 l/W Lamp or fixture with 10,000 or greater lumens of light output has minimum efficacy of 75 l/W Lamp or fixture has L70 rating greater than or equal to 50,000 hrs Qualifying measures may not be used for street or roadway lighting purposes as defined in the workbook Measure identifiers: Lamp or fixture LED wattage 20-29W 30-44W 45-59W 60-74W Replacement type Lamp (with or without a new photocell), fixture Minor changes to LED wattage categories to align with equivalent HID fixtures

List of Proposed Updates Measure specification Baseline assumptions Measure costs Measure life

Baseline Assumption: HIDs If we remove the “as found” wattage measure identifier, we need an estimate of the equivalent HID wattage for the HID portion of the current practice baseline We can establish an HID equivalent wattage for various LED wattages using several sources: 2011/2013 interviews of regional utility personnel Subject matter expert judgment from draft 7th Plan analysis1 Established tables showing LED and HID fixtures with equivalence in “visually effective lumens”2 Manufacturer suggestions Using the sources above, the CAT developed the following table and proposes it be used to inform the HID portion of the current practice baseline LED Lamp or Fixture Watts "Equivalent" HID Lamp Watts "Equivalent" HID Fixture Input Watts 20-29 70 91 30-44 100 129 45-59 150 185 60-74 200 240 1 Discussions with Evergreen Consulting on HID to LED wattage reductions observed in practice. 2 http://www.howard-lighting.com/Documents/ProductLiterature/HIDToLEDCrossReference.pdf

Baseline Assumption: LEDs Current measure assumes 0% penetration of LEDs in the current practice baseline Based on utility interview responses back in 2013 DOE national sales data and sales forecasts suggest that current LED sales penetration is non-zero and increasing rapidly Source: U.S. DOE, "Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications", prepared by Navigant Consulting, August 2014.

Baseline Assumption: LEDs (continued) CAT used DOE sales forecast curve to estimate sales market share for 2016 DOE sales forecast curve suggests 2016 LED penetration of about 25%, which the CAT proposes to use Note the following caveats about the DOE data: It is not specific to the Northwest region It is not specific to area lights – it includes building façade lighting (wall packs) and pathway lighting (it does not include street or parking lights) RTF judgment required x

Proposed Savings Calculation: an Example LED fixture: 52.5W LED “Equivalent HID Fixture”: 150W HPS (input power: 185W) Current Practice Baseline: 185W * 75% + 52.5W * 25% = 152.5W Savings Calculation: (152.5W – 52.5W) * 4,380 hrs / 1,000 = 438 kWh Estimated market share of HID Estimated market share of LED

List of Proposed Updates Measure specification Baseline assumptions Measure costs Measure life

Measure Costs When measure was developed in 2014, only a few qualifying products available in the market Total cost of LED lamp or fixture at that time: $200 to $250 In the last two years, costs have dropped significantly CAT collected updated cost data from retail sites and proposes using the new cost curves shown below

Measure Costs (continued) CAT also proposes a change in the way incremental costs are computed for fixtures Current measure uses LED fixture costs incremental to an HID lamp CAT proposes to use LED fixture cost incremental to current practice fixture cost (and LED lamp cost incremental to current practice lamp cost) Example: Current Incremental Cost Calculation for Fixtures Efficient Fixture Cost – Base Case Lamp Cost = Incremental Cost $246 – $14 = $232 Proposed Incremental Cost Calculation for Fixtures Efficient Fixture Cost – Base Case Fixture Cost = Incremental Cost $135 – $94 = $41

List of Proposed Updates Measure specification Baseline assumptions Measure costs Measure life

Measure Lifetime Current measure uses the same lifetime assumption for both lamp and fixture products (70,000 hrs or about 16 yrs1) Not enough products available at the time to see a significant difference in lifetime From the products now available in the market, there appears to be shorter rated lifetimes for lamps as compared to fixtures Lamps predominantly rated at 50,000 hrs (or 11 yrs) Fixtures rated at about 75,000 hrs on average (or 17 yrs) CAT proposes using different lifetimes for fixtures and lamps – 17 yrs and 11 yrs, respectively 1 Assumes 12 hrs per day or 4,380 annual hours of operation

Proposed Savings, Lifetime, Incremental Cost, & Regional Cost-Effectiveness

Energy Savings

Measure Life

Incremental Cost

Regional Cost-Effectiveness

Proposed Delivery Verification Guidance Check installation is either an LED lamp or an LED fixture Check LED wattage Check that lamp or fixture is photocell-controlled Check lamp or fixture is listed on the Lighting Design Lab Qualified Products List, the Design Lights Consortium Qualified Products List (v3.1), OR has the following technical specifications: Minimum efficacy of 65 l/W for lamps or fixtures with 250-4,999 lumens of light output Minimum efficacy of 70 l/W for lamps or fixtures with 5,000-9,999 lumens of light output Minimum efficacy of 75 l/W for lamps or fixtures with 10,000 or greater lumens of light output L70 rating of 50,000 hrs or greater for all lamps and fixtures Check that fixture is not used for lighting of a street or roadway

Proposed Motions “For the exterior LED area lights UES measure, I move the RTF: accept the measure updates as proposed, including updates to the measure specification, baseline, energy savings, costs, and lifetime; keep the Category for all measure applications at Proven; keep the Status at Active; and change the Sunset Date to 2/28/2017.”