1. Grocery Measure: EC Motors for Display Cases Regional Technical Forum July 21 st, 2015 Mohit Singh-Chhabra

2. Presentation Objectives Approve proposed measure analysis Change measure category to Small Saver 2

3. Measure Background Measure Name:Grocery: EC Motors for Display Cases Current Measure Category: Proven Proposed Measure Category: Small Saver Current Measure Status:Active Proposed Measure Status:Active Measure Sector:Commercial End Use:Grocery- Refrigeration Current Sunset Date:August, 2015 3

4. Staff Highlighted Area Use of multiple savings and cost streams over measure life (and beyond) – Applies to all pre-conditions measures with RUL < EUL Applying Risk Mitigation Credit to savings that persist through planning horizon 4

5. What is this measure? Replace Shaded Pole motors with EC (Electronically Commutated) Motors driving the evaporator fan for grocery display cases 5

6. How is energy saved? EC Motors are more efficient (~66%) than Shaded Pole (~20%) – More efficient EC Motor generate less heat less interaction with the refrigeration system Although these motors are small (<1 HP), they run all year long (8760 hours) 6

7. Proposed Measure Category: Small Saver Total savings claim calculated using CLEAResult (PECI) motor install count since mid-2013 is 0.14 aMW – Bonneville estimates approx. 1 aMW remaining savings potential for all motor measures in grocery stores in its territory Grocer Market Opportunity Assessment (6/13) study conducted by Cadmus Note: Other RTF Grocery Motor measures are categorized as small savers as well (ECMs for walk-ins, Compressor head fan motor retrofit) Uncertainty in motor efficiency and EER values used for analysis CAT proposal: update measure category for ECM in Display Case to Small Saver 7

8. Engineering Analysis Details Energy savings calculated as follows: – fan kWh savings component is a result of motor upgrade – the other part of the formula accounts for interactive effects with the refrigeration equipment 8

9. Data Used to Update Measure CLEAResult provided CAT with data on EC Motor installs in display cases starting in mid-2013 – Motor count 32 different motor models, ~1800 total – Rated watts – Installed cost/ motor – Install date and other relevant fields Recent data show higher average installed motor watts than existing estimate – Expect savings to go up 9

10. Key Energy Savings Calculation Parameters Motor Efficiency: No Change Operating Hours: Minor Change – CAT Proposal: 8760 operation Current workbook assumes that LT evap. fan motors are turned off during defrost – CAT did not find documentation of defrost cycle hour estimate DOE TSD uses 8760 as operating hours EER of refrigeration system: Change, updated using SIW – MT EER = 11 – LT EER = 4 Baseline: Change – This is a pre-conditions measure with RUL<EUL. Baseline changes over measure EUL 10

11. Measure Lifetime EUL = 15 years (DEER) RUL needs to be estimated for pre-conditions – DEER provides estimate of 5 years – DEER assumption: RUL = EUL/3 – CAT proposal to go with that. Reasonable assumption Assumption: In the counterfactual, at the end of RUL SP motor would be replaced by a current practice motor – Combination of shaded pole and EC Motor. As per CBSA, ratio of all SP to EC Motors is 84% to 16% Full savings and cost assigned during RUL period Reduced savings and cost assigned for remaining EUL period 11

12. Energy Savings Streams 12 These savings (685 kWh) realized through the SP RUL These savings (484 kWh) persist through the EUL

13. First Year Energy Savings Comparison 13

14. Risk Mitigation Credit A Risk Mitigation Credit is applied to measures that save energy throughout the 20 year planning horizon – Credit for long term resource procurement risk reduction Risk Mitigation Credit is applicable to: – savings that have the potential to recur/ renew or – savings that are long term (>20 years). E.g., insulation Risk Mitigation Credit is not applicable to: – Savings built into the load forecast. i.e. Short term savings that do not renew E.g., Early retirement savings E.g., Savings subsumed by upcoming Codes & Standards 14

15. Risk Mitigation Credit (Contd.) Proposal is to not include Risk Mitigation Credit for early retirement portion of savings – Assign Risk Mitigation Credit to Current practice savings 15 Current Practice Savings (Red) get Risk Mitigation Credit No Risk Mitigation Credit for Early Retirement Savings (Green)

16. Incremental Cost: Early Replacement Methodology The initial cost (first year cost) incurred is the full cost of the EC Motor The customer, by installing an EC Motor today, avoids cost of a new “Current Practice” motor RUL (5) years from now. – This negative cost (credit) is accounted for as a non- recurring periodic cost in ProCost The period of analysis is the EUL of the EC Motor (15 years). The Current Practice motor would have some monetary value at the end of EC Motor EUL – This value is accounted for in the cost-benefit analysis 16

17. Incremental Cost: Early Replacement Methodology Mimics calculations ProCost uses where costs or benefits are truncated by program life 17 Notes: All costs are in 2006$’s. Average weighted EC Motor installed cost = $83 Current Practice Motor Cost = $66 – Equates to equal annual payments of $6 through EUL, assuming EUL (new unit): 15 years Real Discount Rate: 5% PV Lifetime Measure Cost = $EC Motor – Sum(Red Bubble) PV Annual Payments (in the Counterfactual) for a Current Practice Motor

18. Incremental Cost Results 18 $83 is the first year incremental cost $45 is the PV incremental cost over the lifetime Note: Costs are in 2006$

19. Cost Effectiveness (TRC) Results 19

20. Delivery Verification Guidance Measure Identifier: Check motor installed is an electronically commutated motor Savings Baseline (Pre-Conditions): Check measure replaced a shaded pole motor Consistent with what was adopted for Walk- Ins on May’15 Meeting 20

21. Decision Slide “I __________ move the RTF approve the Display Case EC Motors measure as presented and: – Set the Category to ‘Small Saver’; – Set the Status to ‘Active’; – Set the sunset date to March, 2019.” 21

22. Additional Slides 22

23. Key Assumption: Motor Efficiency EC Motors are assumed to be 66% efficient, SP Motors are assumed to be 20% efficient Source: US DOE Report: Energy Savings Potential and Opportunities for High-Efficiency Electric Motors in Residential and Commercial Equipment (December, 2013) Same as existing workbook 23

24. Key Assumption: Annual Hours of Operation Proposed Assumption: 8,760 Hours (motors operate all year round) – Reason: evaporator motors in refrigerated display cases operate continually to: circulate cold air in the case and Develop an air curtain in open display cases Similar to current assumption – US DOE Technical Support Document for Commercial Refrigeration also advises that these motors run continually US DOE Technical Support Document for Commercial Refrigeration 24

25. Key Assumption: EER of Refrigeration System The following EER values were adopted based on PECI EER analysis presented to the RTF on 3/14: – Medium temperature cases EER = 11 – Low temperature cases EER = 4 Decision: RTF approve the EER analysis as presented and, following a diligent review by the Grocery Subcommittee, include the final EER results table in future updates of the Standard Information Workbook for use in UES measure assessments. – A review of the EER analysis measure spreadsheet conducted, the DOE 2R models used to generate data for the spreadsheet were not reviewed – Measure is proposed as a Small Saver, CAT recommends these updated EER values be used, if RTF decides to review the DOE 2R models, the EER values will be updated as necessary 25

26. Key Assumption: Case Temperature Savings vary based on temperature of the display case EC Motors are retrofitted in – Refrigeration interaction Existing workbook used actual installation data to understand distribution of installation between low temp (LT) and med temp (MT) case – This data is no longer collected Low – medium temperature ratio calculated using data in CBSA for walk-ins, – Data for reach ins, not available – 65% MT, 35% LT. – Distribution almost identical to existing workbook 26