Residential LED Fixtures Research Discussion Research and Evaluation Subcommittee January 8, 2016

Measure background Measure Name: LED Fixtures Likely Measure Type:UES Likely Measure Category:Proven (eventually) Measure Sector:Residential End-Use:Lighting Regional Potential:150 to 200 aMW [overlaps with Screw-in Lamp potential]

History RTF New measure proposal from Bonneville Presentation to RTF on 9/22/2015: RTF Decision: “Allocate staff resources towards developing a Residential LED Fixture UES Measure and a Residential DHP for New Construction UES Measure, under the assumption that there is no timeframe for completing the work.” v1.pptx Bonneville has collected product information on LED fixtures from The Home Depot, Lowes, and Costco websites Bonneville will be collecting data on market mix and incremental cost Currently developing Scope of Work They would like feedback from the Research and Evaluation Subcommittee on their proposed approach We don’t have a Research Strategy or Research Plan yet, but wanted R&E subcommittee input before Bonneville starts collecting data

Measure Details Specification: fixture with integrated LED or fixture with separate LED lamp provided in package (uncommon) Measure Identifiers Fixture Type Ceiling and Wall Flush Mount Downlight (Recessed) Retrofit Kit Track Light Exterior Porch Linear Shop Light Exterior Security Linear Flush Mount Possibly a couple more Delivery Mechanism Retail

Fixture types Ceiling flush-mount Track lighting Recessed Retrofit

More fixture types Exterior porch Exterior security Linear shop Light Linear flush-mount

LED Fixture Products (BPA Data) LED CategoryN of Products Ceiling Flush Mount179 Indoor Downlight (recessed)62 Track Light (MR-16)53 Exterior Porch Light35* Linear Shop Light10 Security Light9* Linear flush-mount6 * Requires more LED product gathering

Measure Details Baseline: Current Practice baseline We don’t expect consumers to replace fixtures because of a program Rather, for customers that are in the market for a fixture, they have a choice between LED fixtures and socket-based fixtures. A program could push customers towards the LED fixtures

Savings Methodology Savings = ∆Watts x Hours x HVAC Interaction ∆Watts = Wattage_baseline – Wattage_efficient Wattage_baseline = Wattage_LED x %_LED + Wattage_socket-base x %_socket-base Wattage_efficient = Wattage_LED Hours: same as Res LED and CFL Screw-in measure HVAC Interaction: same as Res LED and CFL Screw-in measure Proposed approach Wattage_LED – from online shelf data (HD/Lowes/Costco), by lamp type, possibly by lumen bin This data has already been collected Wattage_socket-base Assume the mix of lamp technologies (inc/hal/CFL/LED) that go into these fixtures is the same as the screw-in lamp baseline Note: we don’t have this data for pin-based and linear lamps Assume same lumens for LED and socket-base (or other ratio) %_LED and %_socket-base: Option 1: sales data [Bonneville is exploring this option] How detailed would this data be? Option 2: sample of online shelf data (HD/Lowes/Costco) Would need to specify any screening (e.g. high price), sample size, weighting DISCUSS EACH STEP OF PROPOSED APPROACH – ANY CONCERNS, ALTERNATE SUGGESTIONS?

Incremental Cost Methodology Difficult given the wide range of fixture styles and prices Propose to use online shelf data Option 1: average cost per category: Take average cost of sample of lamps in each category (lamp type, possibly lumen bin) Incremental cost = [Cost_LED] – [Cost_all-fixtures] Exclude high prices models from analysis Hope that the pool of socket-based fixtures is comparable to the pool of LED fixtures Need to select a cost cut-off and a sample size Need to consider weighting sampled points (e.g., by popularity rank, by # of comments) Option 2: matched-pairs analysis: Analyst selects socket-based fixtures that most closely resemble style and light output of a particular LED fixture Incremental cost = { [Cost_LED] – [Cost_socket-based] } x (1- %_LED) Requires subjective assignment of match by analyst Closest to an apples to apples comparison Need to set number of pairs and criteria for matching Requires an assignment of style type within fixture category, may be subjective No CAT consensus on which option is better