Chapter 4 – Hypotheses, Concepts, and Variables Steps in Research Process I. Specifying the Research Question A.Topics for research are limited by 1.Significance (does it advance our understanding of politics) 2.Observable 3.Political behavior. Whose (units of analysis)? a.______________ (voters, lawmakers, etc.) b.Groups (parties, unions, interest groups) c.Institutions (state legislatures, city councils, courts) d.Political jurisdictions (states, countries, congressional districts, precincts)

II. Proposing Explanations A.Dependent Variable – varying phenomena that we are trying to explain (effect). B.Independent Variable – varying phenomena that we thing explains our dv (cause). C.Control Variables (other ivs) – other phenomena that may affect the dv directly. D.Antecedent Variable – iv that occurs ____________ to all other independent ivs and may affect them (has indirect impact on dv). E.Intervening variable – iv that occurs ______________ in time to the dv and is itself dependent upon other ivs in the model. Figure 4-1 (p. 110): Arrow diagrams help keep track of relationships III.Formulating Hypotheses A. Characteristics of a good one 1.Make Empirical Statements – make testable statements about what exists in real world, not what _____________ exist. 2.Generality – should explain a general phenomena, not isolated or particular occurrence. 3.Plausibility – there should be a logical reason, grounded in

Sound theory (purpose of literature review). Use If/then statements to discipline yourselves in the deduction method of hypothesis formulation. If (theory) is true, then (hypothesis statement coming here) we should expect to observe ______ in the real world. 4.Specific – a good hypo specifies not only a relationship, but a directional hypothesis (hypothesis that identifies a cause and effect as well as whether there is a +/- relationship). Positive: the lower a state’s avg income, the _________ money the state government will spend per pupil Negative: Older people are less tolerant of social protest than younger people (age/tolerance of social protest). 5.Consistent with data – state hypotheses in terms of how the concepts in them are measured (%, #, dollars, etc.) 6.Testable – can be__________ empirically; also not tautological (stating a link between two concepts that are basically the same thing; e.g., as the economy improves, incomes go up). B.Specifying Units of Analysis – these are the units or subjects being observed. Statistically, these are what your “cases” represent. So, in a survey, the units are individuals/respondents. But they may be states, counties, lawmakers, etc.

C.Defining Concepts – some are easy to define (car, vote, political party). Others are not (democracy, crime, political alienation, religiosity).