National integrated Assessment Activities National focal point G. Vialetto (ENEA) Italian Agency for New Technologies Energy and the Environment Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Oslo, May, 13-15, 2002

National focal point activities Italian Agency for New Technologies Energy and the Environment Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Oslo, May, 13-15, ) Techo-economic data assessment for use of IAM 3)Development of emission scenarios for the purposes of the LRTAP, in co-operation with IIASA and ANPA 2) National Project for the development of the RAINS-Italy model with the co-operation of IIASA and Arianet

Comparative Analysis of a Post Kyoto Emission Scenario performed by the models Rains and Markal T. Pignatelli (ENEA), M. Contaldi (ANPA) Italian Agency for New Technologies Energy and the Environment Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Oslo, May, 13-15, 2002

Objectives of the analysis: Italian Agency for New Technologies Energy and the Environment Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Oslo, May, 13-15, ) Search for sinergies between the UNFCCC and the LRTAP Conventions 3) Comparison between the scenarios developed by two indipendent models, Rains and Markal, under similar boundary conditions 2) Investigation of the effects of a Post Kyoto energy scenario (pathway) in terms of CO2 and SO2 emissions and LTRAP target achieving

Hypotheses of the analysis: Italian Agency for New Technologies Energy and the Environment Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Oslo, May, 13-15, ) Same energy consumption data input for the two models 2)The adopted control strategy is the so-called “current legislation” for Rains, while, in Markal model, the solving algorithm has some degrees of freedom in selecting technologies/fuels according to the “least cost” criterion. The kinds of technologies considered are the same for the two models. The energy scenario (pathway) has been developed by the Markal model according to a number of exogenous sectoral development trends and energy scenarios developed by the EC and national concerned parties

Results: CO 2 Emission Scenario Italian Agency for New Technologies Energy and the Environment Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Oslo, May, 13-15, 2002

Results: SO 2 Emission Scenario Italian Agency for New Technologies Energy and the Environment Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Oslo, May, 13-15, 2002

Conclusions Italian Agency for New Technologies Energy and the Environment Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention TFIAM Meeting, Oslo, May, 13-15, ) An energy scenario, developed with the aim of complying with the Kyoto Protocol provisions, should make “more achievable” the national SO2 emission target, set by the Gothenburg Protocol 3) Cross-checking analyses, performed by different and indipendent models provide, a chance for developers and users to test the models and improve their peformances 2) Notwithstanding some intrisec differences between the Rains and Markal models, a substantial agreement is found in the developed emission scenarios