1. Tentative Ideas for Co-operation
From the perspective of the
Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling
Rob Maas, September 5, 2011, Geneva
UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

2. Changing Context for EMEP and WGE
EU-enlargement  future CLRTAP?
Political relevance?
Science dissemination towards Asia?
Air & climate change  1 global atmosphere
Climate neutral protocol - SCLF: ozone and black carbon
Co-benefits of Climate Policy (health, vegetation)
What about Nitrogen?
Political climate  Low ambitions
Trade-offs rather than idealistic targets
Long term vision rather than short term action
More research questions, but: political (mis-)use of scientific uncertainties
How to educate the people?
Dissimination science towards Asia?
SLCF, cobenefits CC

3. Reorganisation 2000

4. EG Black Carbon

5. Current cooperation

6. Current Co-operation(2)
State of the Art input WGE to CIAM/TFIAM
Health impacts PM & Ozone
Ecosystem impacts Acidification, Eutrophication & Ozone
Ex-post analysis WGE of CIAM-assessments
Review
Biodiversity & Health indicators
Ozone Flux: damage to Food & Carbon Sequestration
Co-operation WGE-NEBEI
Lost working hours, Materials damage, Crop loss

7. Ambition levels for Europe: trade-off between costs and impacts
More N-reduction
Less ozone-reduction

8. Revised results after scrutiny by parties
Ambition levels for Europe: trade-off between costs and impacts

10. 10

12. Valuation of Benefits
Current distribution of monetized damage:
Mortality ~ 67 %
Morbidity ~ 32 %
Crops ~ 0.8%
Materials ~ 0.2%
Ecosystem services %  !!!

13. Future co-operation
Joint WGE-TFIAM background document to the revised Gothenburg Protocol
Sensitivity analysis of health assumptions (PM, O3)
Valuation of Ecosystem services
Combined impacts of air pollution and climate change  Hemispheric, role of Black Carbon & Nitrogen
Long term ends (or trade-offs)?  2050
The Gridding Question  Are we moving beyond transboundary fluxes? Cities, Natura2000 areas?
The environmental integrity of emission trading schemes?
How to apply our knowledge to Asia?  specific projects?
How to raise public awareness? …

14. Purpose Joint background report
Background info to revised protocol
Description of scenario assumptions
Tables with data per country (obligations & expected impacts)
Maps for Europe  where do we expect the benefits and remaining problems?
 useful for review & implementation problems

15. Report contents Activity trends and future scenario 1990-2020
1. GDP 2. Energy 3. Transport 4. Agriculture
Key measures
Emissions (BL, Protocol, …, MTFR)
Air quality and deposition
Impacts
1. Yolls 2. Acidification 3. Eutrophication 4. Ozone deaths
5. Ozone damage to vegetation 6. Damage to materials 7. R-Forcing
Costs and benefits
Long term prospects

16. Time schedule TFIAM WGSR 2010 Feb: Baseline proposal
May: Analyses of targets options
Nov: Sensitivity analysis
2011
Jan/Feb: Scenario runs
May: Final runs
Dec: Report (with WGE)
WGSR
2010
Apr: Baseline accepted
Sept: Guidance on targets
Dec(EB): Guidance on targets
2011
April: Ambition level
Sept: Proposed Protocol
Dec(EB): Final Protocol text