1. Summary and Recommendations from the Joint TFEIP/TFIAM Workshop on Emission Projections Marc Deslauriers, Environment Canada Thessaloniki, Greece, Oct 30-31, 2006

2. Presentation Outline Summary of the workshop presentations  Copies of all presentation will be available on the TFEIP website List of actions points Recommendations to the TFEIP

3. Session 1 Scene Setting – European legislative, policy and research drivers for projections

4. Presentation From The Task Force on Integrated Assesment Modeling (TFIAM) Provided context for use of projections in the Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) and highlighted sources of data input Reinforced the drivers for better projections Reflected on recent member state engagement with IIASA and lessons learned

5. Presentation By The European Commission Provided context for emission projections within the revisions of NECD including the developments since CAFE Illustrated the NECD review baseline and highlighted that there was consistency at the EU level and linkages with other policies (air pollutants, GHG, transport policies, agriculture, etc.) Reported from the EC conference of Sept 2006

6. Presentation From The UNFCCC Presented on the role of projections within the UNFCCC, the experiences and lessons learned Reflected milestones for the UNFCCC projections Provided background on the UNFCCC Guidelines Identified best practices Reported back on the results of 2004 workshop on projections

7. Session 2 Tools and approaches for developing projection estimates relevant to LRTAP Convention and NEC reporting

8. Presentation On The RAINS Model Presented an overview of the model  Multi pollutant/multi effect framework for identifying cost effectiveness of policy scenarios Clarified input data required for projections from central and country specific sources Identified problems and uncertainties for NECD pollutants and PM

9. Presentation On The PRIMES Model Presented an overview of the model, which is a behavior and market equilibrilium energy model  Including input data, coverage, and engagement with member states  Database update and model development Provides input for the energy component of RAINS in absence of country specific data

10. Presentation On The CAPRI Model Presented an overview of the model which is a “multi-purpose” modeling system for EU’s agriculture Clarified the input data required, scope and engagement with member states Outlined model development Clarification on the CAPRI baselines including policy assumptions Outlined detailed model calculation procedures Identified the problems

11. Session 3 Current Issues and Problems Encountered For Projections

12. Presentations By Different Countries The UK highlighted the differences between the data used as input to TREMOVE and National measurement data for road transport emissions  TREMOVE emissions estimates were much smaller for all pollutants( especially in urban areas) compared to those estimated in the NAEI Spain presented their comprehensive emissions projections program  Described the consistent methodology and demonstrated some of the national database tools including the development of innovative nomenclature to link with the RAINS input

13. Presentations By Different Countries Italy presented the application of the RAINS-Italy  Identified discrepancies between RAINS-Italy and the inventory  Discussed the harmonization between RAINS-Italy and the inventory  Comparison studies of RAINS-Italy with national inventories indicated where improvements should be targeted for both  Provided a robust assessment towards NECD 2010 targets Presentation for Canada and the United States  Identified similarity in the approach to compile the emission projections to European countries despite slight differences in data availability  Highlighted difficulties of capturing equipment turnover in projections, which is common to European countries  Presented improvements in the approach to compile the projections but recognized the difficulties of including structural measures (eg. fuel switching)

14. Session 4 Other perspectives

15. Other Perspectives On Projections Presentation by EURELECTRIC  Explained that emission projections have inherent uncertainties and are subject to change  Demonstrated how projections and assumptions evolve across time, highlighting the importance of having adequate sensitivity analyses  Reminded us of the importance of engaging the industry associations in the development of the emission projections (technology costs)

16. Other Perspectives On Projections Presentation on the ammonia emissions from Danish agriculture  Highlighted the need for taking a holistic approach to assessing the impact of future agriculture emissions  Reported on a project to produce ammonia projections to 2025, and demonstrated the need for excellent collaboration between different institutes to produce the most accurate projections Presentation on the implications and importance of getting good projections for IAM  Reported back of lessons learned from MERLIN and ESPREME  Explained the limitations and roles of the top down and bottom up approaches and therefore the need for harmonizing  Highlighted the need for the quantification of uncertainties and input data (eg activity projections)

17. Other Perspectives On Projections Presentation on the modeling perspective by Norwegian Meteorological Office  Identified the key limitations of country projections for transboundary modeling  Highlighted the need for information by NFR sectors, spatial distribution data, and seasonal variations

18. Session 5 Recent developments in projections assessment

19. Presentation on the RAINS model  Presented the extension of RAINS to include GHG emissions (becomes GAINS) and the linkages to the EDGAR database  Integration of TREMOVE and city-delta  Development of an agriculture module Presentation on the TREMOVE model  Presented the model structure (different modules), its data needs, and upcoming developments, calibration, and stakeholder consultation Presentation on agriculture NH3 emissions and projections from UK using the NARSES model  NARSES is a nitrogen flow model that links to other agricultural pollutants

20. Recent developments in projections assessment Presentation on developing emissions projections at a the regional scale for Italy  Highlighted the interaction between European national and regional planning  Explained the modeling approach used and the tools developed Presentation on the CLRTAP Projections Reporting Guidelines  Presented the proposed modifications to the new reporting requirements for projections which are now more detailed  Highlighted the need for harmonization with NEC and UNFCCC

21. Session 6 Agreeing on approaches to resolving problems

22. Action Points Inventory Compilers (TFEIP) Best science (differences should be explored using reporting transparency) Guidebook Ensure strong linkages and consistency between air quality and climate change Engage DG TREN energy analysis group, and other experts from industry, transport and agriculture etc …….. (E.g. creation of another focal point/group in the TFEIP … TOR.. Closer links with and experience of industry developments (relating to activity and emission factors), economics, etc) Ensuring lesson learnt from IIASA bilaterals are incorporated into improvement programmes Co-ordination of improvements.. Extend Expert Panels to cover projections support.

23. Action Points Models (RAINS/GAINS, PRIMES, CAPRI, TREMOVE) Documentation (methodology, assumptions etc.) Peer Reviews A suitable forum for effective stakeholder participation/interaction Improvement programmes (e.g. Bilateral) Countries should Internal networks, build consistency on data uses Co-ordination of improvements … RAINS/GAINS transition … review/comparison/validation

24. Action Points Modellers (TFIAM) Engage with specific groups with knowledge of projection parameters (industry development, economic, agriculture (CAP), energy) Clear definition of scenarios Continued input to validation of projections Definition of “ wants ” rather than “ needs ” (e.g. Policies in place.. What, when & how much..) Investigation of Emerging Technologies (linking to all stakeholders and done by the EP Projections) Recognition of the importance of ex-post assessments in informing future projections Emission targets (Fixed vs % change from base year) Investigate possibilities for NEC & Protocol revisions??

25. Recommendations To The TFEIP 1.Guidebook development  Good practice in preparing Emission projections National data sources, assessment of non technical measures, checking, transparency in reporting, dealing with different approaches. How to apply quality principals in practice…. etc Technology and new technology speciation/elaboration and provision of technology specific factors 2.Forums for communications between projections experts  International within the TFEIP  Member state at the national level

26. Recommendations To The TFEIP 3.Creation of an Expert Panel for projections  Single panel (with links to existing EPs, other expert groups, and stakeholders)  Co-ordination of improvements …  Assessment of strengths and weaknesses of different approaches 4.Web based portal to provide  Links to other expert panels, models, best practice & tools  Emissions projections forum/knowledge base  Assessment of advantages and disadvantages of using different models for different purposes