1. European Scenarios of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Mitigation: Focus on Poland J. Cofala, M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, L. Hoeglund-Isaksson, P. Rafaj, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter, F. Wagner Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Development (APD) Programme

2. Outline European air pollution policy process Methodology of integrated assessment modeling Revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive and links to the EU climate policy Results for Poland

3. Air pollution control policy in Europe UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution –2008: Gothenburg Protocol under review EU level, recent developments: –2003: Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) Programme established –2005: EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) proposed –2008: Revision of the NEC Directive based on targets from TSAP

4. The RAINS approach for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 PM HealthAcidificationEutrophication Ozone Policy targets on air quality IIASA’s RAINS optimization model

5. The GAINS approach for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies (GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies ) SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 PM HealthAcidificationEutrophication Ozone Policy targets on air quality IIASA’s GAINS optimization model GHGs Policy target on GHG emissions

6. NEC revision process Several scenarios for 2020 analyzed IIASA calculated –Ceilings for air pollutants –Impact indicators –Control costs Bilateral consultations with Member States Interim results presented to expert groups Final scenarios ready, currently discussed within the Commission Proposal for the revised NEC Directive expected soon

7. Activity scenarios for NEC analysis Climate and Energy Package (C&E): –minus 20 % GHG, access to CDM –20 % renewable energy target –continuation of the ETS system –targets for non-ETS sectors –reductions of non-CO2 GHG based on GAINS analysis –energy demand and CO2 reduction – PRIMES energy model –agriculture – national scenarios Sensitivities: –PRIMES Baseline (continuation of the ETS system) –National energy scenarios

8. Cost curves for non-CO2 GHG for 2020 – an example

9. Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months 2020 (4.2 months) 2000 (8 months)

10. Forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, % 2020 (3% of total) 2000 (19 % of total)

11. Poland: Non-ETS GHG emissions in 2020 Source: EC, DG ENV

12. Poland: “current policy” emissions of air pollutants To achieve Thematic Strategy targets, emissions need to be further reduced by 5-20 % of 2000 level

13. Poland: Environmental effects of the NEC scenario Unit2000Improvement Loss of life expectancy due to exposure to particulate matter months1045% Area of forest ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification %6097% Premature mortality from ozoneNumber of cases135020%

14. Concluding remarks Revision of European air pollution control legislation will bring substantial environmental benefits European level research does not replace national assessment Exchange of information between European and national models facilitated through NIAM network IIASA will be happy to share the experience with Polish modellers

15. More information: www.iiasa.ac.at/rains