The Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce, Inc. The electoral landscape: campaigns, platforms, likely outcomes; Lula’s legacy and shadow New York, July 21 st 2010 Paulo Sotero BRAZIL INSTITUTE Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

2010 IS A DREAM ELECTION YEAR FOR A CANDIDATE RUNNING ON A PLATFORM OF CONTINUITY IN BRAZIL An enormously popular president A population seemingly satisfied with what has been achieved and with country’s prospects Impressive economic and social progress to campaign on A promising economic outlook A strong national coalition of mobilize voters

Latest IBOPE poll, from final days of June, reinforced perception that the election is Dilma’s to loose 45% believe she will be the next president compared to 34% for Serra Dilma is the spontaneous choice of 22%, Serra of 17% and Marina Silva of 4%. Lula get’s 12%. Dilma’s rejection numbers are lower than Serra’s Dilma’s voters less volatile than Serra’s She will have 40% of free TV time, compare to 30% for Serra PRESENTED, HOWEVER, WITH A CHOICE OF CANDIDATES, AS THEY WILL BE ON ELECTION DAY, VOTERS TIED THE RACE AT 39% ON THE FIRST ROUND AND AT 43% ON SECOND ROUND

Factors that will affect race until Oct 3 Extensive coverage on national TV Free time on TV, from August 17 on Impact of online media Debates Message and performance of candidates on the stump A September surprise

Factors that may not help define race if it remains competitive to the end and goes to a second round The candidates economic platforms Split of Marina Silva 1 st round Free TV time before Oct 31 No votes: now 6%, ,3%, %, %, %.

Lula’s legacy and his role in the post- Lula government depends on who wins and with what sort of mandate Serra scenario: need to build a presidential coalition in Congress to govern Dilma scenario: 1 st or 2 nd round? With or without a mandate? Will Lula help her to be a successful president ? STAY TUNED!