Demographic Transition Demographers call the sequence of stages in population growth the demographic transition model. The FOUR stages are: 1.Low-Growth Stage - _______ birth rate and ______ death rate lead to a population that varies over time, with little ______ - ______ population growth. 2.High-Growth Stage - ______ birth rate and _____________ death rate lead to sustained and significant population ____________. 3.Moderate-Growth Rate – ___________ birth rate combined with already-low death rate lead to continuing population growth. 4.Low-Growth or Stationary Stage - ________ birth rate and ________ death rate lead to a very ________ rate of growth.

Demographic Transition The transition in the demographic transition occurs in stages ____ and ____, when death rates ___________ and then birth rates __________. When the death rate and birth rate ______, the country transitions from a _______ growth rate to a _______ or ___________ growth rate.

Stage 1: Low Growth The low population growth rate of stage 1 is marked by much _______ _____________. With incredibly high birth rates and equally high death rates, population increases ____________. ___________ and ___________ keep the death rates high among all sectors of the population. During the 1300s, the Black Death (bubonic plague) hit Europe in waves beginning in Crimea on the Black Sea, diffusing through ________ to Sicily and other Mediterranean islands, and moving through _______________ diffusion and the travel of ______ (who hosted the vector, the flea, that spread the plague) north from the Mediterranean. ____________ also limited population growth. Records in India and China during the 18 th centuries document millions of people perishing.

Stage 2: High Growth 1700s = beginning of the ______________ ______________. Sanitation facilities made towns and cities safer from epidemics, and modern medical practices diffused. Disease prevention through ________________ introduced a new era in public health. Also marks the Second Agricultural Revolution – more efficient farming methods decreased the number of people needed in ____________ and the food supply increased, thereby supporting a higher population = DR in Europe of 35/1000, 1850 = 16/1000 When European and North American countries moved into stage 2 in the 1800s, their populations took off, inflating worldwide population. European colonization of Africa and Asia in late 1800s brought those areas into stage 2. New alarms and cautions of worldwide population rang.

Stage 3: Moderate Growth Europe and North America entered stage 3 in the first half of the 1900s. Stage 3 is marked by continuing, but slower, decline in _______ rates coupled with a significant decline in birth rates. The result is continued growth in the population but at a much slower rate. In the second half of the 1900s, many countries in Latin America and Asia entered stage 3, which has helped slow the global population growth rate. Why do birth rates decline, allowing a country to move into stage 3? –Low birth rates with greater urbanization, wealth, and medical advances. –Opportunity for women were not compatible with large families, delaying marriage and childbearing. –Medical advances lowered infant and child mortality rates, lessening the sense that multiple children were necessary to sustain a family. –Diffusion of _________________, the accessibility to _________________, and woman’s conscious decision to have fewer children at a later age all lower birth rates within a country.

Stage 4: Low Growth The countries experiencing exceptionally low TFRs are in the fourth stage of the demographic transition. Having achieved low (if not too low) birth rates along with _____ death rates puts the countries in a position of _____ to _____ population growth. Birth rates are lowest in the countries where women are the most ___________ and most involved in the __________ ___________. A country reaches stage 4 when the CBR declines to the point where it equals the CDR, and the NIR approaches ________. This condition is called ZPG (Zero Population Growth), a term often applied to stage 4 countries. Italy and France – Western European countries.

Future Population Growth Many agencies suggest most (if not all) countries’ populations will stop growing at some time during the 21 st century, reaching a so-called ________________ __________________ ____________ (SPL). This would mean the world’s population would stabilize and the major problems to be faced would involve the _______ rather than the __________. In 2004, the United Nations predicted that world population would stabilize at ____ billion in 300 years.