1. Population Part IV (A) Thomas Malthus, Population Bomb?

2. A Population Bomb? Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England)
-Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly
*** Believed people needed to practice ”moral restraint” to lower CBR or
there needed to be a disaster to increase CDR in order to solve population problem

4. Neo-Malthusians (Supporters of Malthus)
Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought:
1. many countries experiencing population growth due to transfer of medical technology
2. new population “stripping” world of resources
Neo Malthusians
1) Ehrlich (1960s)
warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s because the world’s population was outpacing food production.
No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from Ehrlich’s thoughts?
2) Robert Kaplan and Thomas Fraser Homer-Dixon
“Survival of the Fittest” (Hunger Games!)

5. Critics of Malthus Critics of Malthus
Esther Boserup and Simon Kuznets-larger population would stimulate growth, will lead to the production of more food; more people=more consumers, more creativity
Julian Simon-more people=more brains
Friedrich Engels-(Marxist) believed that world has enough resources, if only those resources were shared equally (critic of Capitalism)-
Copeland-resources are not fixed, trade allows for potential elimination of possibilism

6. Demographic Transition Models (B)

7. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
Demographic Transition - the change in population characteristics of a country to reflect medical technology or economic and social development.

8. Demographic Transition - Stage 1
Hunter-gatherer society –population fluctuations depended on supply of meat and vegetation.
High Birth Rate (limited use of birth control, children are seen as workers)
Agricultural society (Agricultural Revolution)
High Death Rate
High Infant Mortality Rate
Epidemics and plagues
Poor nutrition
Famine
War
Low Natural Increase Rate
Stationary population growth

9. Demographic Transition - Stage 1
Sign. Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

10. Demographic Transition - Stage 2
High Birth Rate
Declining Death Rate
Divided into Two Parts
1) Industrial Revolution
2) Medical Revolution
High Natural Increase Rate
Expanding population growth

11. Demographic Transition - Stage 2
Europe and North America entered Stage 2 in the 1800s
Africa, Asia and Latin America entered into Stage 2 in the early to mid 1900s
European colonization brought medical advancements
Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-Saharan African countries

12. Demographic Transition - Stage 3
Declining Birth Rate
Urbanization
Wealth
Education
Contraceptives
Low Death Rate
Low Natural Increase Rate
Slow expanding population growth
Desire for smaller families, changes in social trends, rise in materialism

13. Demographic Transition - Stage 3
Europe and North America entered Stage 3 in first half of 1900s
Many countries in Latin America and Asia entered Stage 3 in the second half of the 1900s
Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa, Chile, China, Brazil

14. Demographic Transition - Stage 4
Low Birth Rate
Low TFR
Women highly involved in education and workforce
Low Death Rate
Low to no Natural Increase Rate
Stationary Population Growth
This stage reflects a highly industrialized, educated society.

16. Demographic Transition - Stage 4
Current Examples:
Many European countries
United States
Canada

17. Demographic Transition - Stage 5
Death rate slightly exceeds the birth rate, and this causes population decline.
This stage has only been recently recognized, and there are very few countries that are considered in stage 5.
Reasons for low birth rate include:
-A rise in individualism
-Greater financial independence of women
-lack of resources for future generations
-an increase in non traditional lifestyles
Examples of Countries in Stage 5 (very beginning)
Russia, Japan, Germany