1. Population Part IV Thomas Malthus, Population Bomb? (A)

2. A Population Bomb? Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England)
--Felt population growing exponentially and resources
growing linearly. England was going through demographic transition
--Believed people needed to practice ”moral restraint” to
lower CBR or restrict reproductive rates among lower class
---there needed to be a disaster to increase CDR in order to solve population problem (God’s Wrath)

3. Malthus’ Point of Crisis

4. Neo-Malthusians Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought:
1. many countries experiencing population growth due to transfer of medical technology
2. new population “stripping” world of resources
Ehrlich (1960s)
warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s because the world’s population was outpacing food production. (Said England would die by & world would undergo world-wide famine-millions would starve to death)
No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from Ehrlich’s thoughts? Ehrlich said that resources are finite, increased consumption will lead to depletion of those resources

5. Critics of Malthus Resources are not fixed:
Trade allows for potential elimination of environmental determinism
Lack of food resulted from distribution of wealth rather than insufficient food
Population growth can stimulate economic growth
More people=more consumers, more creativity

6. Population Part IV: Demographic Transition (B)

7. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
Demographic Transition - the change in population characteristics of a country to reflect medical technology or economic and social development.

8. Demographic Transition - Stage 1
Hunter-gatherer society –population fluctuations depended on supply of meat and vegetation.
High Birth Rate
Agricultural society (Agricultural Revolution)
High Death Rate
Epidemics and plagues
Famine
War
Low Natural Increase Rate
Stationary population growth

9. Demographic Transition - Stage 1
Sign. Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

10. Demographic Transition - Stage 2
High Birth Rate
Declining Death Rate
Divided into Two Parts
1) Industrial Revolution
2) Medical Revolution
High Natural Increase Rate
High expanding population growth

11. Demographic Transition - Stage 2
Europe and North America entered Stage 2 in the 1800s
Africa, Asia and Latin America entered into Stage 2 in the early to mid 1900s
European colonization brought medical advancements
Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-Saharan African countries

12. Demographic Transition - Stage 3
Declining Birth Rate
Urbanization
Wealth
Education
Contraceptives
Increased status of women
Low Death Rate
Low Natural Increase Rate
Slow expanding population growth

13. Demographic Transition - Stage 3
Europe and North America entered Stage 3 in first half of 1900s
Many countries in Latin America and Asia entered Stage 3 in the second half of the 1900s
Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa, Morocco
***most developing countries

14. Demographic Transition - Stage 4
Low Birth Rate
Low TFR
Women highly involved in education and workforce
Low Death Rate
Low to no Natural Increase Rate
Stationary Population Growth
This stage reflects a highly industrialized, educated society.

16. Demographic Transition - Stage 4
Current Examples
***Most developed countries
(United States, Argentina, Australia, United Kingdom, France, Ireland,

17. Demographic Transition-Stage 5
Fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level
Elderly population > Youth population
What does Stage 5 look like on the DTM?
Examples of Stage 5 countries (negative NIR) : Croatia, Estonia, Japan, Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ukraine, Denmark, Russia , Canada, Germany

18. DTM Limitations Doesn’t include the effects of immigration
Can’t predict how long stages will last
Non-applicable to lesser-developed countries where wealth and information access are limited