GLOBAL VULNERABILITY REDUCTION (Part 3) A HIGH BENEFIT- TO- COST LEGACY TO LEAVE THE NEXT GENERATION ACCELERATING REDUCTION OF EVERY COMMUNITY’S VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS WILL BE THE KEY TO SURVIVAL FOR MILLIONS IN THE 21 ST CENTURY MAY 27, 2011 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

A BOOK OF A BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Education And Education

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK FROM EXPERIENCE TO BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE TO… STOP. EDUCATION/TRAINING PREVENTION/MITIGATION MONITORING ADAPTATION POLICIES FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY & RISK

POLICY ADOPTION AND IMPLEMEN- TATION POLICY ADOPTION AND IMPLEMEN- TATION RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY EXPOSUREEXPOSURE EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COSTCOST BENEFITBENEFIT CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES OUR LEGACY: A GLOBAL REDUCTION OF COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES NATURAL HAZARDS EXPECTED LOSS

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - Perspectives GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED And EM HI-ED

A report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program June 20, 2008

A joint effort of more than a dozen government agencies for the report, go online to

"Heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to increase in frequency and in intensity.”

"Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity.”

“Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase.”

The strongest winter storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights."

Soil amplification of earthquake ground shaking is likely to be more wide spread.

Landslides triggered in earthquakes or by flooding are likely to be more extensive.

The impacts of tsunami wave run up is likely to be more extensive.

“By the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years now could be taking place every five years.” y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years. Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

“An increase in frequency can lead to more frequent occurrences of flooding events such as those that occurred in the Midwest during 2009 AND 2011.” y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years. Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

DROUGHTS DROUGHTS - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Education And Education

Drought is the result of the interaction of rainfall, which can be highly variable, and human systems, which can be very vulnerable to changes in rainfall.

Drought is related to climatic variability that usually is occurring far from the community or the area being impacted by drought.

PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION DROUGHTS LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DEPLETION &POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER LOSS OF VEGETATION INSECT INFESTATION PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY EL NINO AND LA NINA CONDITIONS (i.e., WARMING AND COOLING OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN) LOCATIONS IN SHADOW OF MOUNTAIN RANGE

EARTHQUAKES EARTHQUAKES - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Education And Education

Earthquakes occur as the result of interactions between and within tectonic plates in the lithosphere that are slowly converging, diverging, or sliding past each other as a result of stresses created by ongoing heat flow within the Earth.

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Education And Education

BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON TSUNAMIS

HIGH VELOCITY OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP AND RUNOFF VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING INADEQUATE WARNING SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

TSUNAMI: CHILE, 2011

ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY A SHALLOW FOCAL DEPTH. ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY BEING IN OR CLOSE TO THE FAULT RUPTURE ZONE WHERE CONDITIONS FOR OCCURRENCE OF THE “KILLER PULSE” ARE BEST.

AMPLIFICATION OF GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY SOFT SOILS LONG--DURATION ACCELERATION PULSE CAUSED BY FLING OF THE FAULT

BUILDINGS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND LATERAL GROUND SHAKING LIFELINE SYSTEMS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAULT RUPTURE, LANDSLIDES, AND LIQUEFACTION

FLOODS FLOODS - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Education And Education

BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, DEATH AND INJURY LOSS FUNCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY OF NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

Flooding occurs when the local river channels, floodplains, wetlands, and water tables are not able to contain, store, or transmit local precipitation and runoff.

COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE LOCATED IN THE FLOODPLAIN PROLONGED RAINFALL EXTENDED DRAINAGE IN A LARGE BASIN HIGH VELOCITY FLOW

SEVERE WINDSTORMS - Perspectives SEVERE WINDSTORMS - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED And EM HI-ED

BOOK OF KNOWLEDE ON SEVERE WINDSTORMS

WIND AND WATER INSIDE BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAIN QUALITY OF WORKMANSHIP IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 Alex (H) June 21 Bonnie July 27 Colin Aug 3 Danielle (H) Aug 21 Earl (H) Aug.29 Fiona Aug 30

ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 Gaston Sept 1 Hermine Sept 6 Igor H Sept 8 Julia H Sept 12 Karl Sept 14 Lisa Sept 21

LANDSLIDES LANDSLIDES - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Education And Education

BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

LANDSLIDES: RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL; 2011  Once tropical forests (a carbon sink) are cleared for cattle ranching or community development, the cleared land can becomes a major source of methane, a greenhouse gas.

WILDFIRES WILDFIRES - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED And EM HI-ED

BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON WILDFIRES

LIGHTNING WILDFIRES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN- WILDLANDS INTERFACE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CUTTING FORESTS DENUDED SLOPES HOT, DRY WEATHER CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

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BOOK OF BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Education And Education

BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS - Perspectives - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And Education And Education

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) IN PATH OF VOLCANIC PLUME AND ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS INADEQUATE WARNING ANO EVACUATION CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

GRIMSVOTN’S ASH PLUME RE- ACHED 20 KM (12 MI): MAY 21, 2011