1. A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT FOR THE 21st CENTURY
lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: February 27, 2015
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Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

2. THE GOAL: 7+ BILLION PEOPLE IN-VOLVED IN A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT

3. THE MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AROUND THE GLOBE

4. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION NEEDS OF 21st CENTURY PROTECTING PEOPLE and their HABITATS HEALTH CARE, NEW MEDICINE, and WATER PRE- AND POST-DISASTER ASSESSMENTS RENEWING INFRASTRUCTURE GLOBAL WARMING

5. TOWARD A GLOBAL CHANGE IN HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DRR
PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION
PERIOD OF INTEGRATION
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
UNDER-STAND
IDENT-IFY
HEAR
POLICIES
AND PRACTICES
PERSON-ALIZE

6. AN INCREMENTAL PROCESS
USE EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AS A BASIS FOR INNOVATIVE, CONCERTED GLOBAL ACTION
IMPROVE EDUCATION
CLARIFY GOALS
ELEMINATE INERTIAL BARRIERS
INCREASE ODDS FOR SUCCESS
VISUALIZE BENEFITS
ALIGN THINKING & ACTION

7. POLICY OPTIONS YOUR COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING
NATURAL HAZARDS
INVENTORY
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
GOAL: DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
YOUR COMMUNITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
PREPAREDNESS
PROTECTION
EARLY WARNING
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
RECOVERY/RECONSTR.
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

8. FACT: EVERYONE WILL BENEFIT FROM A DISASTER-RISK REDUCTION DIVIDEND

9. FACT: SOME HUMANS, INSTITUTIONS, COMMUNITIES, AND NATIONS MAY NOT WANT TO CHANGE THEIR BEHAVIOR ABOUT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

10. FIVE KEY STEPS MAKE THE GOAL CLEAR
MAKE THE GOAL AND ITS BENEFITS AND INERTIAL BARRIERS EASY TO VISUALIZE
MAKE THE GOAL POPULAR
MARSHAL A GLOBAL POLITICAL MANDATE FOR THE GOAL
IMPLEMENT– INNOVATE-- IMPLEMENT

11. CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR
STEP 1: PROVIDE CLEAR INFORMATION ABOUT THE GOAL, THE BENEFITS, AND THE INERTIAL BARRIERS TO SUCCESS.

12. GOAL: CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DRR
FLOODS
IMPROVE ON PAST PERFORMANCE
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
EARTHQUAKES
INCREASE SCIENTIFIC TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY
TSUNAMIS
IMPROVE ODDS FOR SUCCESS
LANDSLIDES
WILDFIRES
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
DROUGHTS
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

13. CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR ON DRR
RELEVANT
INCREASES PUBLIC AWARENESS
WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR
INCREASES UNDERSTANDING
ENABLES POLICY ADOPTION
INCREASES EQUITY

14. BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR
Increases the "World's Mutual Fund for Education," (i.e., every country has resources for education in their budget)

15. BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR
Increases disaster risk reduction in every community, including the Mega-city-- a special challenge all by itself

16. BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR
Integrates goals of communities of all sizes
Focus all available resources on disaster-risk reduction
Can minimize ignorance, apathy, political & disciplinary boundaries, and lack of political will about DRR

17. BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR
Equips, links, and engages legions of new and emerging professionals with mature professionals to work innovatively on each problem.

18. BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR
Intensifies efforts in the well-known high-risk locations that often will lag far behind other communities

19. BENEFITS OF A MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT ON DRR
Transfers ownership of existing knowledge and technology to communities where capacity may be insufficient to solve DRR problems.

20. INERTIAL BARRIERS TO SUCCESS
INERTIAL BARRIERS ARE UNIVERSAL; THEY CAN BE FOUND IN EVERY INSTITUTION, COMMUNITY, AND NATION

21. INERTIAL BARRIERS ARE ALWAYS BETWEEN YOU AND THE GOAL
IGNORANCE
APATHY

22. INERTIAL BARRIERS ARE ALWAYS BETWEEN YOU AND THE GOAL
HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL DISCIPLINARY AND POLITICAL BOUNDARIES
LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

23. CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR
STEP 2: PUBLICIZE THE SUCCESS STORIES FOR EACH NATION AS THE HUMAN, INSTITUTIONAL, AND COMMUNITY INERTIAL BARRIERS TO CHANGE IN DRR ARE MINIMIZED

24. CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR
STEP 3: PROMOTE CONFORMITY OF THINKING AND ACTION BECAUSE PEOPLE, INSTITUTIONS, AND COMMUNITIES WILL WANT TO DO WHAT OTHERS ARE DOING IF THEY THINK THEIR PARADIGM WILL LEAD TO SUCCESS

25. A PROCESS THAT BUILDS EQUITY AND MINIMIZES BARRIERS
PROMOTING CONFORMITY
A PROCESS THAT BUILDS EQUITY AND MINIMIZES BARRIERS
THE KNOWLEDGE BASE
CAPACITY BUILDING
CONTINUING EDUCATION
Risk and Loss Assessments
Increased Understanding
Hazard Characterization
Vulnerability Assessments
Real & Near Real Time Information Flow
Data Acquisition
Interface with Multiple Networks
Cause & Effect Relationships
Emergency Managers
Policy Makers
Practitioners
Intelligent Emergency Management
Tailored to Community Needs
Up Close, Virtual, and Distance Learning
Update Knowledge Bases After Each Disaster
Disaster Scenarios
Training
Information Technology

26. MAKING OTHERS WANT TO DO WHAT YOU ARE DOING
USE EXISTING KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIVELY
INITIATE INMOVATIVE, CON-CERTED ACTIONS DESIGNED TO BENEFIT YOUR COMMUNITY AND GLOBAL “SISTER COMMUNITIES”

27. “DISASTER LABORATORIES” HAPPEN EVERY YEAR
CYCLONE NARGIS
NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR REDUCING COMMUNITY DISASTER RISK
WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE
FLOODING: MIDWESTERN USA
NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR
TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES
WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA
ERUPTION OF VOLCANO CHAITEN
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

28. TURNING POINTS IN A SUCCESSFUL MEGA-PARADIGM SHIFT
EDUCATION: PENETRATES SOCIETY
IGNORANCE TO ENLIGHTENMENT
BUILDING EQUITY AND TRANS-FORMING BARRIERS INTO OPPORTUNITIES
APATHY TO EMPOWERMENT
BOUNDARIES TO NETWORKS
ENABLEMENT OF POLITICAL WILL

29. CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR
STEP 4: MAKE THE GOAL—CHANGING GLOBAL HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT DRR-- A POLITICAL MANDATE IN EVERY COUNTRY. [NOTE: DRR SHOULD BE ON THE AGENDAS OF G-8 and G-20 NATIONS]

30. CHANGING HUMAN BEHAVIOR
STEP 5: IMPLEMENT POLICIES AND PRACTICES TO CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR ON DRR INNOVATIVELY, USING GLOBAL PARTNERS AND LABORATORIES TO INCREASE THE ODDS FOR SUCCESS.

31. GOAL: CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR PARADIGM SHIFTS
INNOVATION
GOAL: CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR
FUNCTIONAL NETWORKING CHANNELS
INFORMATION NETWORKING CHANNELS
PARADIGM SHIFTS
ORGANIZATION NETWORKING CHANNELS
PRIVATE SECTOR
PUBLIC SECTOR
COMMUNITY
STAKEHOLDERS
ACADEMIA
Stratec Consulting

32. INCREASE THE ODDS FOR SUCCESS
INNOVATION THAT FACILITATES WORKING TOGETHER
AND
WORKING TOGETHER IN WAYS THAT FACILITATES INNOVATION

33. EXAMPLES OF INNOVATION
1 + 1 >> 1
Political + Science >> either Science or Political alone

34. EXAMPLES OF INNOVATION
…+ 1 = G Nations win
= G Nations win
= 200 Everyone wins

35. PROTECTING PEOPLE and their HABITATS

36. PROTECTING PEOPLE and their HABITATS
THE CHALLENGE: How do you make people, habitats, buildings, and essential and critical infrastructure disaster resilient in communities that are at risk from floods, severe windstorms, earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires?

37. INCREASING THE ODDS FOR SUCCESS
USE THE “GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES” TO FORM POLICY AND BEST PRACTICES

38. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
EARTHQUAKES
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

39. HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP
TSUNAMIS
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS
FLOODING
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

40. FLOODS CAUSES OF RISK LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
STRUCTURE & CONTENTS: DAMAGE FROM WATER
FLOODS
WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)
DISASTER LABORATORIES
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

41. WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
STORM SURGE
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
SITING PROBLEMS
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

42. DISASTER LABORATORIES
CAUSES OF RISK
LATERAL BLAST
PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
FLYING DEBRIS
VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
VOLCANIC ASH
LAVA FLOWS
DISASTER LABORATORIES
LAHARS
TOXIC GASES

43. SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES
LANDSLIDES
SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS
SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS
DISASTER LABORATORIES
PRECIPITATION THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE SHAKING
GROUND SHAKING THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE

44. PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO WILDLANDS INTERFACE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
LIGHTNING STRIKES
MANMADE FIRES
PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO WILDLANDS INTERFACE
WILDFIRES
WIND DIRECTION (DAY AND NIGHT)
DRYNESS
DISASTER LABORATORIES
HIGH TEMPERATURES
FUEL SUPPLY

45. PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION
LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE
LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
DROUGHTS
DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER
LOSS OF VEGETATION
DISASTER LABORATORIES
INSECT INFESTATION
LOSS OF LAND FROM DESERTIFICATION

46. PRE- AND POST-DISASTER ASSESSMENTS
THE CHALLENGE: How do you use computers and information technology to create realistic pre-event disaster scenarios and post-disaster assessments for use in education and as a basis for policies and best practices for disaster risk reduction?

47. RENEWING COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE
THE CHALLENGE: How do you renew aging community infrastructure that is becoming increasingly vulnerable each year to the disaster risks posed by natural hazards?

48. HEALTH CARE NEW MEDICINES CLEAN WATER
QUALITY OF LIFE CONCERNS

49. HEALTH CARE
THE CHALLENGE: How do you identify the specific factors behind wellness and illness and follow through on them to realize the promise of global health care as an integral part of the quality of life ?

50. NEW MEDICINES
THE CHALLENGE: How do you find new treatments for age-old scourges such as malaria as well as the emerging diseases such as Alzheimer's and the deadly Ebola virus?

51. CLEAN WATER
THE CHALLENGE: How do you increase the precious and relatively short supply of clean water for personal use, irrigation, and industrial use in all areas of the world?

52. GLOBAL WARMING: CONCERN OF THE CENTURY
THE QUESTION: Are Planet Earth’s solar-atmospheric-oceanic-litho-spheric and human- inter-actions causing irreversible global warming?

53. GLOBAL WARMING: AN EMERGING THREAT
THE CHALLENGE: How do you monitor and adapt to the complex, long-term physical interactions that may be causing small changes in the physical parameters that control long-term increases in air, land, and water temperatures?

54. SOLAR INPUT: THE STARTING POINT
After reaching Earth's upper atmosphere, about one - third of the solar spectrum is reflected back into space.

55. SOLAR INPUT (continued)
Two-thirds gets through the upper atmos-phere, reaching the land masses and oceans—the engines for Earth's weather.

56. GREENHOUSE GASES OCCUR NATURALLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE
The greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

57. KEY PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS
Absorption, storage, and re-radiation of the fraction of light and EM waves that enter the Earth’s atmosphere (causes the “natural” greenhouse effect).
Absorption of heat by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (causes the “un-natural” greenhouse effect).

58. “NATURAL”GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Greenhouse gases trap heat inside the atmosphere.

59. NET EFFECT OF THESE INTERACTIONS
THE “NATURAL” GREENHOUSE EFFECT KEEPS THE EARTH WARM AT ABOUT 57.9 DEGREES, BUT
THE “UN-NATURAL”GREENHOUSE EFFECT TRAPS TOO MUCH HEAT IN THE ATMOSPHERE, CAUSING A GLOBAL INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURE OF THE LAND MASSES AND OCEANS.

60. “UN-NATURAL”GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Too much trapped heat increases temperatures in the atmosphere first, and on the land and ocean surfaces, second.
Causing global warming.

61. WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING?
The “TIPPING SCENARIO” is the big unknown that creates today’s dilemma!
Question: Is it already too late to reverse the un-natural (i.e., partly man-caused) causes of global warming?

62. WE HAVE TO CHANGE HUMAN BEHAVIOR ABOUT ALL ASPECTS OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FOR EVERYONE TO WIN!