1. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN MEXICO A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

2. MEXICO’SCOMMUNITIESMEXICO’SCOMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS NATURAL HAZARDS BLDG. INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RISK REDUCTION EDUCATIONAL SURGE PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

3. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE MEXICO’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS FLOODS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDES DEVELOP POLICIES FOR ACTIONS HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR THE COMMUNITY GOAL: REDUCE DISASTER RISK NOW

4. POLICY ADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY EXPOSUREEXPOSURE EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COSTCOST BENEFITBENEFIT CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES TOWARDS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION NSTURAL HAZARDS EXPECTED LOSS

5. HURRICANES MEXICO IS AT RISK FROM HURRICANES FORMING IN THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN, AND GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC

6. WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE HURRICANES UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

7. HURRICANE DEAN THE FIRST NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF 2007 CAUSED DEVASTATION FROM CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO MEXICO A CATEGORY 2-3 STORM ON 17 AUGUST 2007 A CATEGORY 4 STORM ON 18 AUGUST 2007 A CATEGORY 5 STORM ON 20 AUGUST

8. COORDINATED PLANNING BY USA, MEXICO, AND CANADA President Bush met with the leaders of Mexico and Canada on Monday, August 20 th to continue coordinated planning of mutual assistance before the arrival of Hurricane Dean.

9. PATH OF DEAN: 20-21 AUGUST 2007

10. ADVANCE PREPARTIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO The Gulf has 4,000 multi-million dollar oil and gas platforms and facilities that are at risk from hurricane Dean’s strong winds and high waves. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 flooded oil refineries, toppled oil rigs, and cut pipelines.

11. PEMEX OIL AND GAS PLATFORM IN GULF OF MEXICO

12. ADVANCE PREPARTIONS OF FACILITIES AT RISK IN THE GULF Pemex, Mexico’s oil company, began evacuating 13,500 workers from its oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, August 20. Petroleos Mexicanos evacuated all 18,000 offshore workers and shut down production rigs on the Bay of Campeche. This action resulted in a loss of revenue from daily production of 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas

13. FOOD AND WATER GONE; CANCUN, MEXICO: AUGUST 19

14. REMEMBERING WILMA, TOURISTS LEAVE CANCUN: AUGUST 19

15. 50,000 TOURISTS LEFT MEXICO BY AUGUST 20

16. CHETUMAL: TAKING SHELTER IN A SCHOOL; AUGUST 20

17. HURRICANE DEAN AT LANDFALL: AUGUST 21 Hurricane Dean made landfall at Majahual, Mexico as a category 5 storm with winds of 165 mi/hr. Just before landfall, Dean had a minimum central pressure of 906 millibars, the third lowest pressure after the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

18. HURRICANE DEAN’S LANDFALL: AUGUST 21 Hurricane Dean’s landfall at Majahual, a port popular with cruise liners, was “good luck” for the people of Mexico. This location was a sparsely populated coastline that had already been evacuated, so none of the major resorts took a direct hit. After a few hours, it became a category 2 storm.

19. MAYANS AT RISK: AUGUST 21 Hurricane Dean threatened the Yucatan’s most vulnerable people — the Mayans, who have not benefited from tourism or oil production. They are poor, living simple lives, in wooden slat houses susceptible to wind damage that are located in low- lying areas prone to flooding.

20. LOCATION OF MEXICO’S MAYAN COMMUNITIES

21. IMPACTS IN MAJAHUAL Hundreds of homes collapsed in Mexico’s second busiest cruise ship destination. Steel girders collapsed and wooden structures splintered from the force of the wind. About one-half the concrete dock washed away in the storm surge.

22. MAJAHUAL LANDFALL: 270 KM/HR (165 MI/HR) WINDS; AUGUST 21

23. CHETUMAL: FLOODING ON AUGUST 21

24. BACALAR: FLOODING; AUGUST 21

25. HURRICANE DEAN’S SECOND LANDFALL: TECOLUTLA, MEXICO

26. THE SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO: AUGUST 22 Hurricane Dean crossed the Bay of Campeche and made a second landfall as a category 2 storm on Wednesday, August 22. Landfall was at Tecolutla, a fishing town in the state of Veracruz on the Central Mexican coast, about 660 km (400 mi) from the border with Texas.

27. PRESIDENT FELIPE CALDERON VISITS CHETUMAL: AUGUST 22

28. STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL: AUGUST 22 Hurricane Dean’s storm surge flooded Ciuidad del Carmen, a town of 120,000, with waist deep sea water. Heavy rain fall accompanying Dean, now a category 1 storm, caused rivers to rise rapidly in a region that experienced flooding and landslides in 1999.

29. MAYAN COMMUNITIES SEVERELY IMPACTED Mexico’s Mayan communities have survived many damaging storms and centuries of oppression, but surviving Hurricane Dean’s impacts on their livelihood may be their greatest challenge ever. The greatest impact was NOT the thousands of destroyed Mayan homes, but the downed fruit-bearing trees and the destroyed corn crops.

30. EARTHQUAKES EARTHQUAKES LIKE THE SEPTEMBER 19, 1985 QUAKE OCCUR MAINLY AS A RESULT OF INTERACTIONS OF THE COCOS AND NORTH AMERICAN PLATES

31. SUBDUCTION: COCOS AND NORTH AMERICAN PLATES

32. SCHOOL: MEXICO CITY; M8.1 QUAKE, SEPTEMBER 19, 1985

33. MEXICO CITY-- 400 BUILDINGS IN OLD LAKE BED ZONE DAMAGED

34. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

35. TSUNAMIS LARGE SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTHQUAKES CAN GENERATE TSUNAMIS

36. TSUNAMI HAZARD TSUNAMIS ARE LONG- PERIOD WATER WAVES CAUSED BY THE VERTICAL UPLIFT OF THE OCEAN FLOOR DURING A M7.0 OR GREATER EARTHQUAKE.

37. HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

38. FLOODS FLOODS ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OR HURRICANES

39. 70 % OF MEXICO’S TABASCO STATE UNDER WATER: NOV 2, 2007

40. LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURE & CONTENTS: DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF RISK DISASTER LABORATORIES

41. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBDUCTION ZONES.

42. ACTIVE VOLCANOES

43. EXPLOSIVE VOLCANOES OCCUR IN SUBDUCTION ZONES

44. ERUPTION OF POPOCATEPL PLACES MEXICO CITY AT RISK

45. LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS LAHARS TOXIC GASES CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

46. LANDSLIDES LARGE VOLUME LANDSLIDES ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING AND HURRICANES

47. LANDSLIDE FOLLOWING HEAVY RAINS IN MEXICO: JULY 2007

48. SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS PRECIPITATION THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE SHAKING GROUND SHAKING THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE CAUSES OF DAMAGE CASE HISTORIES