GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE The Paradigm for 2014 That Makes Our Tomorrows Better STEP 3 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE Step 1: Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of Knowledge Step 2: From Today’s Books of Knowledge to Innovative Capacity Building Step 3: From Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s

THE GOAL DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

REALITY INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY LACK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

YOURNATIONYOURNATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS MONITORING HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATIONR RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EM RESPONSE RECOVERY 5 PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

BENEFITS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE BENEFITS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE REDUCTION OF VULNERABILITY REDUCTION OF UNACCEPTABLE RISK LARGE BENE- FIT/COST REDUCTION OF VULNERABILITY REDUCTION OF UNACCEPTABLE RISK LARGE BENE- FIT/COST POLITICAL SUCCESS (No Regrets) ENHANCED DISASTER RESILIENCE POLITICAL SUCCESS (No Regrets) ENHANCED DISASTER RESILIENCE

STEP 3: TO MOVE From Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s The difference between “Today” and “Tomorrow” is characterized by one set of “CHAMPIONS” leaving center stage and another set coming on.

REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM STEP 1 Integrating Today’s Global Knowledge Into Global Books of Knowledge

FACT: THE PROBLEM IS NOT A LACK OF DISASTER KNOWLEDGE ALL 200 NATIONS HAVE A HISTORICAL RECORD OF THEIR OWN DISASTERS

FACT : THE PROBLEM IS AN IMPLEMENTATION PROBLEM KNOWING WHAT TO DO TECH- NICALLY AND HOW TO DO IT POLITICALLY ARE DIFFERENT PROCESSES

FACT : THE PROBLEM IS A LACK OF CAPACITY FOR IMPLEMENTATION TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY ARE NEEDED FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF EACH OF THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

REVIEW OF THE FACTS FROM STEP 2 From Today’s Books of Knowledge to Innovative Capacity Building For Disaster Resilience

BOOK OF BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives On Science, Policy, On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED And EM HI-ED

EVERY NATION HAS DOZENS OF “WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY” AFTER A NEW DISASTER OCCURS TO USE THE UPDATED BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE FOR INNOVATIVE CAPACITY BUILDING

THE CAPACITY BUILDING PROCESS UNDER- STAND IDENT- IFY HEAR PERSON- ALIZE ACT PERIOD OF INTEGRATION WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION

FACT DISASTER RESILENCE HAPPENS AS CAPACITY IS BUILT BY THE INNOVATIVE INTEGRATION OF “POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS” OF A COMMON AGENDA

CHARACTERISTICS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE CHARACTERISTICS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE STAPLE FACTORS INTEGRATED INTO DECISIONMAKING STAPLE FACTORS BALANCED BENEFIT/COST RATIO IS LARGE STAPLE FACTORS INTEGRATED INTO DECISIONMAKING STAPLE FACTORS BALANCED BENEFIT/COST RATIO IS LARGE

TOWARDS INCREASED CAPACITY FOR GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA (CA) OF TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS GOAL: TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA (CA) OF TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS POLITICAL SOLUTIONS CA

TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH NATION’S STAPLE FACTORS FACT: THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH NATION’S STAPLE FACTORS TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS POLITICAL SOLUTIONS STAPLE FACTORS PP TT SS OO CA

EACH NATION’S UNIQUE “STAPLE” FACTORS VARY WITH EACH NATION’S UNIQUE “STAPLE” FACTORS VARY WITH TIME PLACE CIRCUMSTANCES TIME PLACE CIRCUMSTANCES

SOCIAL (ARE THE PEOPLE AWARE OF WHAT THEY NEED?) COMMUNITY TECHNICAL (IS THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICE BEING APPLIED?) ADMINISTRATIVE (WHO IS RESPONSIBLE AND ACCOUNTABLE?) POLITICAL (ARE PUBLIC POLICIES RELEVANT IN TERMS OF THE THREAT?) LEGAL (ARE EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES ENFORCED?) ECONOMIC (WILLINGNESS AND CAPACITY TO PAY FOR SAFETY?) ALL AFFECT COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE SOCIAL SYSTEMS “STAPLE” FACTORS

STEP 3: TO MOVE From Today’s Paradigm to Tomorrow’s The difference between “Today” and “Tomorrow” is ONE GENERATION, which is characterized by one set of CHAMPIONS leaving the stage and another coming on.

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS PRIOR TO 1980: HUGH CASUALTIES; ECONOMIC LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS SINGLE HAZARD EMPHASIS WITH DEPENDENCY ON CAPACITY FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued) PRIOR TO 1980: EMPHASIS ON POST-DISASTER STUDIES TO LEARN FROM EARTHQUAKES ADVANCED BY USA AND UNESCO LEGISLATION FOR USA’s NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS REDUCTION PROGRAM ENACTED

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (continued ) PRIOR TO 1980: NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM IN USA INCREASED INDEMNIFICATION OF WIND AND EARTHQUAKE LOSSES WITH CASUALTY INSURANCE INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : LEARNING TO THINK IN TERMS OF THE DISASTER PLANNING CYCLE (Preparedness, Mitigation, Emergency Response, Recovery) INCREASE IN CAPACITY FOR LOSS ESTIMATION (e.g., insurers, HAZUS-EQ)

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM SINGLE EVENTS REACH BILLIONS CASUALTY INSURERS PAY OUT A BILLION DOLLARS IN ONE DISASTER EMPHASIS ON PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION (Building codes and lifeline standards)

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : IDENTIFICATION OF “CHAMPIONS” FOR REGIONAL DISASTER REDUCTION PROMOTED BY USA, UNESCO AND UNDP UNANIMOUS APPROVAL OF UN’s RESOLUTION FOR INT’L DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION (i.e., the IDNDR, the decade of the 1990’s)

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : 155 NATIONS PARTICIPATE IN UN’s INT’L DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAMME SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN TERMS OF ALL NATURAL HAZARDS INSTEAD OF SINGLE HAZARDS

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : 155 INDIVIDUAL NATIONS CREATE NATIONAL COMMITTEES (OR ENTITIES) FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION EXPERTS RECOMMEND INCREASED FOCUS ON EARLY WARNING AND PRE- AND POST-DISASTER VULNERABILITY REDUCTION, AND EDUCATION

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : INCREASED NUMBER OF INT’L CONFERENCES ON DISASTER REDUCTION PLANNING FOR FIRST WORLD CONFERENMCE ON NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION IN KOBE JAPAN INCREASED FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS” AS IDNDR CLOSES

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : CONCEPT OF “SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT” ADVANCED FOCUS ON “PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION” INCREASED AS IDNDR CLOSES

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : UN’s IDNDR PROGRAMME TRANSFORMED INTO INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAMME SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, PLANNERS, AND PUBLIC OFFICIALS LEARN TO THINK IN TERMS OF STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : WORLD CONFERENCE CONVENED IN KOBE, JAPAN; THE KYOTO PROTOCOL FOR DISASTER REDUCTION PRODUCED CONCEPT OF GLOBAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ADVANCED

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : FORUM ON GLOBAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ESTABLISHED IN DAVOS, SWITZERLAND INT’L CONFERENCES CONVENED IN DAVOS IN 2006, 2008, 2010, AND 2012 PLANNING BEGINS FOR 2 ND WORLD CONFERENCE IN JAPAN IN 2015

BRIEF HISTORY OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (Continued ) : CASUALTIES REACH HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS AND ECONOMIC LOSSES REACH HUNDRED OF BILLIONS IN SINGLE EVENTS THE FIVE PILLARS OF GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGES AS AN URGENT GLOBAL PARADIGM

JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO FLOOD DISASTERS

BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION AND SCOUR INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, INJURIES, AND DEATH LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY OF NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE NOT RESILIENT TO HURRICANE OR TYPHOON DISASTERS

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN POOR WORKMANSHIP IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING ) IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO TSUNAMI DISASTERS

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO DROUGHT DISASTERS

PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION DROUGHTS LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER LOSS OF VEGETATION INSECT INFESTATION PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO VOLCANIC ERUPTION DISASTERS

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO LANDSLIDE DISASTERS

BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

JANUARY 1, 2014 MILLIONS OF COMMUNITIES ARE STILL NOT RESILIENT TO WILDFIRE DISASTERS

LIGHTNING STRIKES WILDFIRES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN- WILDLANDS INTERFACE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DEFORESTATION DENUDED SLOPES HOT, DRY WEATHER CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

WHAT WILL THE NEXT PARADIGM SHIFT BE? THE NEXT BRIGHT IDEA WILL EMERGE AS GLOBAL PROFESSIONALS CONTINUE WORK DURING 2014 AND BEYOND

STRATEGY: BUILD ON PAST PROGRAMS IDNDR’S GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ISDR’S COMMON AGENDA IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE PRE- AND POST-DISASTER TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE EXPERIENCES WITH EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE AND RECOVERY EXPERIENCES WITH PREVENTION AND PROTECTION GLOBAL ALLIANCE FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

TOWARDS GLOBAL DISASTER RESILIENCE CREATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF REGIONAL DISASTER RESILIENCE PLANS EUROPE AND MEDITERRANEAN MEDITERRANEANASIAASIA MEDITERRANEANMEDITERRANEAN SUB-SAHARAAFRICASUB-SAHARAAFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND ANDCARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND ANDCARIBBEAN SOUTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA

GOALGOAL A GLOBAL NETWORK OF PROFESSIONALS WITH KNOWLEDGE AND POLITICAL CAPITAL TO SOLVE LOCAL, NATIONAL, AND REGIONAL PROBLEMS CHAMPIONSCHAMPIONSSPONSORSSPONSORS INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP AUGUST 2001 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP AUGUST 2001 DONORSDONORS GLOBAL BLUEPRINTS FOR CHANGE TOWARD DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES TOPICAL BLUEPRINTS TOPICAL BLUEPRINTS REGIONAL BLUEPRINTS. REGIONAL BLUEPRINTS. WORLD CONFERENCES ON DISASTER REDUCTION 2005 AND 2015 DISASTERS