Hay Production Economics and Outlook Katelyn McCullock Dairy & Forage Economist Livestock Marketing Information Center

National Hay Outlook Highly Regionalized Forage Quality and Type Local Markets – Many Facets to Prices Beyond Quality Multi-Species Use Large Cash Crop Focus on Alfalfa and Other Hay

PERCENT CHANGE MAY 1 HAY STOCKS ( ) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS US Total: 6%

ALL HAY ACRES Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS Lowest Acreage On Record

2011 ALFALFA HAY ACRES (1000 Acres) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

2011 OTHER HAY ACRES (1000 Acres) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

PERCENT CHANGE ALL HAY ACRES ( ) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS US Total: -7% Other: -9% Alfalfa: -4%

Crop Year Drought in Southwest/Southeast had already been building since Q Weather – Large Snow Pack in the Rockies – Flooding Mississippi River Basin – Cool Wet Spring Delays in First Cutting

Production Lowest Total Production Since 1988 – Other Hay: 1990 – Alfalfa: <1975 Mixed Yield Results – 2.36 tons/ac, -2.8% from a year ago – Change in Alfalfa was 0% Nationally – Other Hay received greater impacts -7% Nationally

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

INTERNATIONAL HAY TRADE (US Total Exports)

Hay Trade Export Categories – Alfalfa & Other Hay: 95% of Exports 2% of Total Production Five Countries Buy >95% of Exports

HAY EXPORTS AS PERCENT OF PRODUCTION Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

2011 DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS (1000 Tons) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

PERCENT CHANGE DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS ( ) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Demand For Hay Mild Winter Substitutes Livestock Sector – Regional Differences Overseas Demand – Seasonality

CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2011 TO JANUARY 2012 (1000 Head) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS U.S. Total: -967

CHANGE IN MILK COWS THAT HAVE CALVED JANUARY 1, 2011 TO JANUARY 1, 2012 (1000 Head) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS U.S. Total: 80

Supply for Hay Acres – New Seedings Report Yields Weather

NEW SEEDINGS 2011 (1000 Acres) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

NEW ALFALFA ACRES VS. LOST ACREAGE New Seedings Report Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

PERCENT CHANGE OTHER HAY ACRES ( ) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS US Total: -9%

ALFALFA AND OTHER HAY YIELDS U.S. National Hay Yield, Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Weather

ALL HAY SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE SHEET U.S., Annual 02/18/ Year Season SupplyDisap. Beginnin gStocksTotalDisap-EndingAcres Average per May 1 TotalSupplypearanceStocksHarvestedYieldPriceRCAU a RCAU Million Tons Mil. AcresTon/Acre$/TonMillion 2010/ /12 b /13 c Forecasts

ALFALFA HAY SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE SHEET 02/18/ Year Season SupplyDisap. Beginnin gStocks Disapp-EndingAcres Average per May 1 ProductionSupplyearanceStocksHarvestedYieldPriceRCAU a RCAU 2010/ /12 b /13 c OTHER HAY SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE SHEET Year Season SupplyDisap. Beginnin gStocksOther Hay Disapp-EndingAcres Average per May 1 ProductionSupplyearanceStocksHarvestedYieldPriceRCAU a RCAU 2010/ /12 b /13 c

Questions Katelyn McCullock Dairy and Forage Economist Livestock Marketing Information Center Phone: Website: