1. April 22, 2015 University of Missouri Extension

2. Pat Guinan April 22, 2015

3. 2015 was warmest first quarter (Jan-Mar) for globe since records began in 1880…

4. Missouri Climate Center/NOAA

5. Mild April in the Great Plains & Midwest… +3-4° +6-7° +5-6° +4-5° Average Temperature Departure from Mean (°F) April 1-20, 2015 http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/ MRCC

6. 50-55°F 55-60°F 60-65°F http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/mesonets/soilTemp.html

7. Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015 Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Departure from Mean Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015 Generally wet April with pockets of dryness… MRCC http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/

9. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

10. 7-day precipitation forecast beginning 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr. 21 thru 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr 28, 2015 1 1 0.5 1.5 2 3.25 0.5

11. 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook Apr 27- May 1, 2015 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook Apr 27- May 1, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

12. David Reinbott April 22, 2015

13. Issues Impacting Prices on April 22 Strong U.S. dollar Planting progress – 9% vs. 13% Acres planted – change of 1- 2 million Large world stocks Growing S.A. crop Avian bird flu Grain sorghum acres up

16. Weekly U.S. Dollar Futures

22. Bu./ac.

32. May 2015 Corn Futures

33. December 2015 Corn Futures

34. Ron Plain April 22, 2015 Cattle Outlook (title)

35. Source: USDA/ERS 10 monthly records in 2014

36. Source: USDA/ERS

37. 2014: 33.9 million head, up 0.5% First increase since 1995 Source: USDA/NASS U. S. Calf Crop, 1945-2014

38. U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly Source: USDA/ERS

39. Dollar Exchange Rate USDA expects 2015 meat exports to be down 6% and meat imports to be up 4% compared to 2014.

40. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9% 2015 year-to-date is down 6.0%

41. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 steer dressed weight was up 1.0% 2015 year-to-date weight is up 1.6%

42. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8% 2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%

43. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 heifer slaughter was down 7.9% 2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%

44. Mar 1 cattle on feed: down 0.5% Cattle on Feed

45. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

46. Source: LMIC Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.

47. U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds * forecast 2013 2014 2015 Qtr 1 6,172 5,868 5,660 Qtr 2 6,516 6,183 6,240* Qtr 3 6,609 6,178 6,210* Qtr 4 6,423 6,023 6,100* Year 25,72024,25224,210* ----- % Change ----- 2013-14 2014-15. - 4.9% - 3.5%. - 5.1% +0.9%. - 6.4% +0.5%. - 6.2% +1.3%. - 5.7% - 0.2%

48. 5 Area Slaughter Steer Prices Choice Steers Per Live Hundredweight 2012 2013 2014 2015 Qtr 1 $125.29$125.52$146.34 $162.43 Qtr 2 $121.91$124.95$147.82 $162-168* Qtr 3 $119.69$122.30$158.49 $157-169* Qtr 4 $125.54$130.77$165.60 $157-171* Year $122.86$125.89$154.56 $160-167* *forecast

49. Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2015

50. OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price, Monthly Average 2000-2015

51. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

52. David Reinbott April 22, 2015

53. Issues Impacting Prices on April 22 Record acres and production U.S. acres – plus 1 – 2 million acres U.S. exports Large S.A. crop Large world stocks

57. Bu./acre

64. 2015 May Soybeans

65. 2015 November Soybeans

66. Ron Plain April 22, 2015

67. U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2015 Source: USDA/ERS

68. Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, 2000-2015 Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri

69. Source: USDA/ERS

70. U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, 2006-2015 Source: USDA/ERS

71. New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by Week NAHLN Reports Source: AASV & NAHLN

72. U.S. Pigs per Litter by Month Pigs per litter: Dec-Feb 14: - 5.5% Dec-Feb 15: +6.7% Source: USDA/NASS

73. record 2014 average was 284.4 lbs, up 8.5 lbs from 2013 Source: USDA/AMS

74. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center 2014 hog slt - 4.6% 2015 YTD slt + 6.8%

75. March Hog Inventory Source: USDA - NASS

76. Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S. Source: USDA/NASS

77. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

78. Commercial Pork Production Forecast Million Pounds * Forecast 2013 2014 2015 Qtr 1 5,777 5,785 6,155 Qtr 2 5,519 5,504 5,720* Qtr 3 5,622 5,423 5,915* Qtr 4 6,274 6,132 6,450* Year 23,18722,84424,240* ------ Change ------ 2013-14 2014-15 + 0.1% + 6.4% - 0.3% + 3.9% - 3.6% + 9.1% - 2.3% + 5.2% - 1.5% + 6.1% Source: USDA - OCE

79. Iowa-Minn. Hog Price Forecast Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight 2012 2013 2014 2015 Qtr 1$84.78$80.17$ 95.15 $64.10 Qtr 2$85.45$89.33$115.67 $68-72* Qtr 3$83.15$95.37$111.79 $68-72* Qtr 4$79.93$82.36$ 88.65 $62-66* Year$83.36$86.87$102.83 $66-70* * Forecast price – prior day purchased

80. Net Slaughter Hog Price, Monthly Average 2002-2015

81. Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 2006-2015 Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

82. David Reinbott April 22, 2015

83. Issues Impacting Prices on April 22 Plains drought/rain World ending stocks going up

89. 2015 July Wheat

90. Joe Horner April 22, 2015

91. Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell Supply Neutral –US cow numbers – rising slowly 1.1% (Feb 2015 year over year) –US milk per cow – rising 0.6% (Feb 2015 year over year) –US milk production – rising 1.7% (Feb 2015 year over year) –California drought constraining 1/5 milk (-3.8% Feb 2015 year over year ) Demand Neutral –Domestic – Spring flush moving supply to storage –Exports – Strong dollar hurting exports vs. NZ & EU –Global – Chinese and Middle Eastern weakness Outlook Better than feared –Margins pressured, but milk price hasn’t collapsed –Cull cow prices vs. milk prices dictate length of low prices

94. Stocks – Rising Bullish Neutral Bearish

97. http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/pages/content/farmBill/fb_MPPDTool.jsp

98. Dairy Price Outlook 1 st Half 2015 2 nd Half 2015 USDA – All Milk Price February 17, 2015 $16.00 - $17.00$17.05 - $19.30$17.05 -$17.65 MO Farm Forecast $18.25$19.00$18.50