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Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock. Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.

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Presentation on theme: "Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock. Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

2 Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

3 Current situation Inputs Outlook for 2011

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5 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

6 Input situation and outlook

7 INPUTS Demand for fertilizers Fuel costs Equipment costs PRICES RECEIVED Number of hay consuming units. Economy Acres of hay

8 Tightening Supplies Increasing demand Political unrest Steady to higher prices for 2011 and 2012

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10 More corn acres Increasing South American demand Strength of US dollar Price of natural gas = Steady to higher fertilizer prices in 2011- 2012

11 Source: University of Georgia

12 Projected Supply and Demand

13 ALL HAY PRODUCTION 2010 (1000 Tons)

14 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

15 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

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22 High beef cattle prices are good for at least two reasons: Suggests herd expansion is coming soon Makes it more economical to feed cows hay Dairy herd continues to consolidate Larger farms tend to be more specialized and willing to contract with local or regional growers. Increasing emphasis on forage-based systems increases demand for hay or baleage. Rapidly expanding goat and sheep market provides another often overlooked target market.

23 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

24 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

25 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

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28 ItemU.S. All Hay Southeastern All Hay Stocks May 120.603.52 Total Production143.8025.34 Total Supply164.4028.86 Disappearance146.5024.88-25.8 Ending Stocks17.903.06-3.98 Season Average Price$131 per ton $125-$135 per ton Good quality Bermuda Hay

29 Source: University of Georgia

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31 2011 could be a very interesting one for hay producers. Tight supplies and an improving economy will likely increase demand. However, higher input prices could reduce costs enough to lower profits.

32 Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock clacy@uga.edu

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