IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University.

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Presentation transcript:

IREM Forecast January 26, 2011 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, (2009 Recession has 6 th Q added from GI Forecast)

Quarter July 2009October 2010January Q ** Q ** Q ** Q ** 2010 Q ** Q ** Q ** Q4* Q1* Q2* Q3* Q4* Quarterly GDP Revisions: Global Insight *Projected **Actual

U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2013 % Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > >

U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2007 – December 2009 (000s) Total - 8,363,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

U.S. Job Change by Sector December 2009 – December 2010 (000s)Total = 1,124 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2010

U.S. Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted 9.4 % GI Fcst

Consumer Confidence 100 Present Situation Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Interest Rates Forecast > > > > > >

Consumer Prices Forecast > > > > > > % Source: BLS, Global Insight

Oil Prices $ per barrel $/barrel Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > > >

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Forecast > > > > >

The Washington Economy

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Nov 2009 – Nov 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 49,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov 09 – Nov 10 (000s) Washington + 49,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

10.2 – DC 9.3 – U.S. 6.3 – SMD 6.0 – MSA NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Economic Forecast

Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

% Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP Washington U.S.

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