1. Economic Outlook 21 st Annual Southern California Visitor Industry Outlook Conference Jack Kyser Sr. VP & Founding Economist, The Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC Friday October 30, 2009

2. They say the recession is over…

3. JOBLESS RATES HIGH AND RISING Sources: BLS, CA EDD Percent Unemployed (SA)

4. JOB COUNTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA EDD Q3 2009

5. Are there green shoots?

7. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

9. Spot Energy Prices $/ Mcf $/Barrel Sources: EIA, Natural Gas Weekly Latest Month Plotted: September 2009

10. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

11. Corporate Profits With Inventory and Capital Consumption Adjustments Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce 2007 2008

12. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH Q/Q Change (Annual Rate) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecast by LAEDC You are here!

13. U.S. LABOR MARKET Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC Forecast Millions of Jobs Unemployment Rate (%)

14. California Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) September 2009 NSA

15. Los Angeles County Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) September 2009 NSA

16. San Francisco Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) September 2009 NSA

17. San Diego Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) September 2009 NSA

18. Phoenix Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) Source: Arizona Workforce, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) September 2009 NSA

19. Chicago Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES), BLS September 2009 NSA

20. Mexico GDP Growth % Change in Real GDP, Year-Over-Year Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009

21. Canada GDP Growth % Change in Real GDP, Year-Over-Year Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009

22. U.K. GDP Growth % Change in Real GDP, Year-Over-Year Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009

23. Japan GDP Growth % Change in Real GDP, Year-Over-Year Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009

24. Value of U.S. Dollar Since 2000 Japanese Yen Euro Index (2000 = 100) Source: Federal Reserve Board

25. Wrap Up A slow jobless recovery Consumers & business still hesitant to spend Health of the airlines still shaky Lots of debate over the economy – 2010 is an election year Times are tough, but pay attention to the customer experience

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