1. Economic Outlook Benson, AZ

2. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Lower levels of production  Job losses/rising unemployment  Less income  Lower levels of sales  Stock market declines  Loss of consumer and investor confidence

3. Cochise College Center for Economic Research PeakTroughDuration (Months) February 1945October 19458 November 1948October 194911 July 1953May 195410 August 1957April 19588 April 1960February 196110 December 1969November 197011 November 1973March 197516 January 1980July 19806 July 1981November 198216 July 1990March 19918 March 2001November 20018 December 2007?22

4. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

5. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

6. Compared to same month previous year

7. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Recovery likely in late 2009  Positive signs in recent months  Unemployment will likely continue to rise  Financial crisis will slow recovery and growth  Economic stimulus will have impact  Inflation may become problematic

8. How Cochise County and Benson are impacted

9. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

10. Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

11. Cochise College Center for Economic Research BENSON RETAIL SALES TAX REVENUE

12. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009: -4.0%*  2008: -6.5%  2007: -1.3%  Benson (Retail Sales Tax Revenue)  2009: -7.6%*  2008: 0.6%  2007: 38.2% * January-July only

13. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

14. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009: -1.4%*  2008: 0.2%  2007: 0.1%  Benson  2009: 7.9%*  2008: -0.6%  2007: -3.1% * January-July only

15. Cochise College Center for Economic Research ACCOMMODATION SALES GROWTH Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

16. Cochise College Center for Economic Research ACCOMMODATION SALES RECENT ACTIVITY  Cochise County  2009: -5.8%*  2008: 1.0%  2007: 19.7%  Benson  2009: -11.5%*  2008: -7.5%  2007: 17.6% * January-July only

17. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  County retail sales at or near bottom—recovery possible in 2009  City level retail sales tax revenue trending downward  County restaurant & bar sales at or near bottom—recovery likely in 2009  City level risks decline  City accommodation recovery possible in 2009  2010 at county level

18. Cochise College Center for Economic Research

19. * January-August only; seasonally adjusted

20. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Seasonally Adjusted

21. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Compared to same month previous year

22. Cochise College Center for Economic Research 12 months ending August 2009

23. Cochise College Center for Economic Research 12 months ending August 2009

24. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Continued job losses & rising unemployment  Local area will fare better than, and begin to recover before, state and nation  ADOC estimates for Benson will continue to overstate unemployment

25. Cochise College Center for Economic Research HOUSING AND REAL ESTATE

26. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Single Family Residential Building Permits

27. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009: 196 (-26.9%)*  2008: 404 (-14.4%)  2007: 472 (-47.6%)  2006: 900 (-18.8%)  2005: 1,108  Benson  2009: 26*  2008: 64  2007: 25  2006: 104  2005: 5 * January-July only

28. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Cochise County  2009: 589 (-12.9%)*  2008: 1,120 (-20.0%)  2007: 1,400 (-10.6%)  2006: 1,566 (-20.7%)  Benson  2009: -41.7%*  2008: -9.3%  2007: 22.9%  2006: 59.1% * January-July only

29. Cochise College Center for Economic Research * January-July only

30. Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County  2009: $183,000 (-3.2%)*  2008: $184,000 (-5.6%)  2007: $195,000 (1.3%)  2006: $192,569 (10.7%)  2005: $173,900 (24.3%)  2004: $ 139,900 Benson  2009: $175,000 (8.9%)*  2008: $163,000 (-25.2%)  2007: $218,035 (32.1%)  2006: $165,000 (56.0%)  2005: $105,750 (31.8%)  2004: $80,250 * January-July only

31. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  New residential construction at or near bottom at county level  Residential construction in Benson will remain well above historical levels  Existing home sales approaching bottom at county level  Home prices should continue to hold or decline modestly

32. Cochise College Center for Economic Research  Recession is likely over  Employment probably won’t improve until 2010  There is still much uncertainty/mixed signals