Managing Local Energy and Environment Interfaces: AIM-Local Model Applications P.R. Shukla

Energy Service DemandEnergy Technology SO 2, NO X, SPM, CO 2 Modeling the dilemma of providing energy services and protecting the environment in a local region Air pollutants Acid precipitation Introduction

Linear programming Total cost  minimum Service demand Parameters Variables Definitions Constraints Objective Function Environmental target Available energy supply Operating capacity Maximum shares of technologies Maximum exchange of stock Solver AIM Local Model: Methodology

Model Formulation (1) Service demand constraint Al,j,i : Service supply quantity by technologies and regions Ψl,j,i : Social service efficiency by technologies and regions Xl,p,i : Operating quantity by technology combinations (l,p) and regions

(2) Operating capacity constraint Λl,i : Operating efficiency by technologies and regions Sl,p,i : Stock quantity by technology combinations and regions

(3) Energy supply constraint : Energy consumption by fuels, technologies and regions ξk,l,i : Energy efficiency improvement by operation style and maintenance

(4) Emission constraint Emissions: Emission factors: d l,p,i m : Pollutant release ratio by technology combinations and regions

(5) Cost functions Initial cost: Operating cost: Environmental cost:

(6) Objective function

SETS PARAMETERS VARIABLES EQUATIONS An Example of Transport Problem Model Formulation in GAMS

Input File for GAMS Output file from GAMS Input file from IDRISI AIM-Local Database System AIM-Local model GAMS version GAMS IDRISI32 AIM workshop 2001 AIM-Local Database System

Emission by point Emission by City and Sector Large Point Source Area Source Emission by City 3.Sector Emission by Region and Sector 2.Region Large Point Source and Area Source

5. Service Service Demand ( I J ) Share Potential ( I L J T ) Energy service tech. (LT) & Air Pollution Control (P) - Energy Cons.(K L P T), - Service Supply (L J T) - Fixed Cost (L P T) - Removal Rate (L P T) etc. 6.Technology Energy Consumption CO2 Emission SO2/NO2 Emission ( I L T ) Energy Price Emission Factor ( K T ) Technology Selection Module (AIM-Local GAMS ver.) Operating Rate ( I L T ) Energy Service Tech.(L T) Air Pollution Control(P) Stock Quantity ( L T 0 ) 7.Stock 8.Share 9.Performance 4.Energy 10.Counter- measure Tax ( ME M T) Regulation ( ME M T) Subsidy ( I L T ) I : LPS or Area L : Energy Device P : Removal Porcess J : Service K : Energy M : Gas (CO 2, SO 2, NO 2 ) T : Time ME : Group on measure Maintenance etc. ( I LT ) Structure of AIM-Local Database

Input and Output Input: (1) Energy â Fuel type, Fuel price, â Emission factors by fuels and technologies â Energy resource constraints (2) Technology â Initial cost, Operating cost â Life-span, Capacity, Share â Energy consumption by fuels for a unit production â Pollutants removal technologies and combinations

(3) Service demand by regions and sectors â Historical service data â Future service demand forecast F Economic development plans from the local government F Development plans from the local industries (4)Air pollutant emission constraints â Current air pollutant emissions â Local environmental protection policies

Output: (1) Aggregated results â Total energy consumption by years â Total costs by years â Total CO2 emissions by years â Total air pollutant emissions by years (2)Technology options â CO2 emissions by technologies and years â Air pollutant emissions by technologies and years â Energy consumption by technologies and years

(3) Service output â Service output by regions, sectors, technologies and years (4)Energy balance table â Energy balance table for the local region by years (with energy information for sectors, technologies and fuel types)

Model Features u Simplified Structure u Modeling local environmental constraints u Direct benefit and co-benefit of counter measures u Flexible model structure to cope with various practical situation in different regions u GAMS programming u GIS Interface

Geographical Information System (GIS)

Why GIS? u Capture location sensitivity u Provide layered information u Analyze time slices u Integrate location and time information in a consistent framework

Spatial Data Characteristics u Spatial data are characterized by information about position, connections with other features and details of non-spatial characteristics u latitude and longitude as a geographical reference u connection details such as which service roads, lifts and ski trails would allow the meteorologist access to the weather station u non-spatial (or attribute) data, for instance details of the amount of snowfall, temperature, wind speed and direction

Raster data Model (sometimes referred to as grid) Vector Data Model (an entity is a component or building block used to help data organization) Data Models

GIS Database Integrated GIS Database

Examples of GIS Application to AIM-Local

Beijing City u Economic Features â Per capita GDP: 3 times of the national level â Industry > 60% of GDP â Heavy Industry > 80% of industrial GDP

Beijing City: Regional Details

Source: Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2000.

Sources: (1)Beijing Municipal Statistics Bureau (1999). (2)Beijing Municipal Government (1992). (3)Beijing Municipal Planning Commission (2000b).

Sources: (1)Beijing Municipal Statistics Bureau (2000). (2)Beijing Municipal Planning Commission (2000). (3)Beijing Municipal Government (1992) – 2005: 9.5% 2006 – 2010: 9.0% 2011 – 2020: 8.5%

 Large Point Sources data

Beijing Cement Plant Technology: dry kiln with pre-decomposition process Capacity : 2000 t/d Production: 525# Portland cement, 0.74 Mt /a Location: Changping District, Beijing City

Beijing Yanshan Petroleum and Chemical Group Corporations Technology: heavy oil based refinery process Capacity : 6.0 Mt /a Location: Fangshan District, Beijing City Refinery

Beijing Yanshan Petroleum and Chemical Group Corporations Technology: Diesel oil based process Capacity : 0.45 Mt /a Location: Fangshan District, Beijing City Ethylene

Beijing Shijingshan Thermal Power Plant Technology: coal boiler Capacity : 4000 MW Location: Shijingshan District, Beijing City

Beijing Capital Steel Corporations Capacity : 8.00 Mt Location: Shijingshan District, Beijing City

â Residential sector â Commercial sector â Transportation sector â Other sectors Area source data

Results Beijing Capital Steel Corporations Beijing Shijingshan General Power Plant

(case 1) 2020 (case 8)2020 (case 6) SO 2 intensity (t-SO 2 /km 2 )

(case 1) 2020 (case 6) CO 2 intensity (t-C/km 2 )

Ahmedabad City, India ã High economic and demographic growth ã Industrial base ã Growing transport demand

India Gujarat Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad Urban Area Ahmedaba d District Note: Figures in brackets show % Urban share

East Zone Central Zone North Zone West Zone South Zone River Sabarmati Ahmedabad Municipal Area

Ahmedabad Municipal Area (South Zone) Pirana Landfill AEC Gas Power plant Vatva GIDC Narol GIDC Pirana MSP Chandola Lake/Landfill *GIDCs have many Textile processing and Chemical units

Ahmedabad – Area CO2 Emissions – 2030 (MT)

Ahmedabad – Area SO 2 Emissions – 2030 (MT)

Ahmedabad – LPS CO 2 Emissions – 2030 (kT)

Ahmedabad – LPS SO 2 Emissions – 2030 (kT)