1. IIM Ahmedabad AIM/Local Model: India Application Manmohan Kapshe Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in Asia-Pacific Region Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi October 24-26, 2002

2. IIM Ahmedabad Overview  AIM/Local Model  India AIM/Local Application  Large Point Sources (LPS)  Area Sources  Sub-regional AIM/Local Application (Ahmedabad District)

3. IIM Ahmedabad AIM/Local Model

4. Energy Service DemandEnergy Technology CO 2, SO 2, NO X Introduction Modeling the dilemma of providing energy services and protecting the environment in a local region Air pollutants Acid precipitation

5. IIM Ahmedabad Features  Simplified Structure  Modeling local environmental constraints  Direct benefit and co-benefit of counter measures  Flexible model structure to cope with various practical situation in different regions  GAMS programming  Separate representation of LPS and Area Sources  GIS Interface

6. IIM Ahmedabad Linear programming Total cost  minimum Service demand Parameters Variables Definitions Constraints Objective Function Environmental target Available energy supply Operating capacity Maximum shares of technologies Maximum exchange of stock Solver Methodology

7. IIM Ahmedabad Input File for GAMS Output file from GAMS Input file from IDRISI AIM-Local Database System AIM-Local model GAMS version GAMS IDRISI32 AIM-Local Database System

8. IIM Ahmedabad Emission by point Large Point Source Area Source Emission by Region Sector Emission by Region and Sector Large Point Source and Area Source Sub-regional emissions are calculated as: Emissions from LPS in the sub-region + Allocated Area Source Emissions

9. IIM Ahmedabad Service Service Demand ( I J ) Share Potential ( I L J T ) Energy service tech. (LT) & Air Pollution Control (P) - Energy Cons.(K L P T), - Service Supply (L J T) - Fixed Cost (L P T) - Removal Rate (L P T) etc. Technology Energy Consumption CO2 Emission SO2/NO2 Emission ( I L T ) Energy Price Emission Factor ( K T ) Technology Selection Module (AIM-Local GAMS ver.) Operating Rate ( I L T ) Energy Service Tech.(L T) Air Pollution Control(P) Stock Quantity ( L T 0 ) Stock Share Performance Energy Counter- measure Tax ( ME M T) Regulation ( ME M T) Subsidy ( I L T ) I : LPS or Area L : Energy Device P : Removal Porcess J : Service K : Energy M : Gas (CO 2, SO 2, NO 2 ) T : Time ME : Group on measure Maintenance etc. ( I LT ) Structure of AIM-Local Database Data requirements are similar to AIM/Enduse but more extensive, due to LPS data and GIS information requirements

10. IIM Ahmedabad What is GIS? GIS is considered to answer the generic types of questions. These include questions about location, patterns, trends and conditions.  Where are particular features found?  What geographical patterns exist?  Where have changes occurred over a given time period?

11. IIM Ahmedabad  Capture location sensitivity  Layered information  Time slices  Integrating location and time information in a consistent framework GIS Application

12. IIM Ahmedabad Delhi SO 2 Emissions from Oil Sulfur Coefficient decrease from 1% to 0.05% (by weight) for Diesel over 1995-2002 has resulted in substantial SO 2 emission reduction in Delhi

13. IIM Ahmedabad India AIM/Local Application

14. IIM Ahmedabad Sectoral LPS share for CO 2 2000 LPSAll India LPS Share 64% Other 36% Power (Coal & Oil) 62% Steel 20% Cement 12% Paper 3% Power (Gas) 3%

15. IIM Ahmedabad Sectoral LPS share for SO 2 2000 LPS Share 62% Other 38% Power (Coal & Oil) 59% Steel 22% Cement 10% Paper 5% Ind. Process 4% LPS All India

16. IIM Ahmedabad LPS Database  LPS number increases in future  Coverage of gases: CO 2 and SO 2  Indianised emission coefficients (to the extent possible)  Projections up to year 2030

17. IIM Ahmedabad LPS Coverage for India

18. IIM Ahmedabad LPS Locations 20002030

19. IIM Ahmedabad Database Generation  Sectoral demand projections on the basis of macro-economic parameters  Thirty year time series GDP  Government projections  Expert opinion  LPS demand on the basis of sectoral demand elasticity and past production trends  Demand over and above LPS capacities assigned to Area Sources

20. IIM Ahmedabad CO 2 from Energy Sector LPS

21. IIM Ahmedabad CO 2 from LPS 20002030

22. IIM Ahmedabad CO 2 Emission Distribution 20002030

23. IIM Ahmedabad LPS contribution to CO 2

24. IIM Ahmedabad SO 2 from Energy Sector LPS

25. IIM Ahmedabad SO 2 from Industrial Processes LPS

26. IIM Ahmedabad SO 2 from LPS 20002030

27. IIM Ahmedabad SO 2 Emission Distribution 20002030

28. IIM Ahmedabad Sub-regional AIM/Local Application (Ahmedabad District)

29. IIM Ahmedabad Ahmedabad District Ahmedabad Municipal area Gujarat Gujarat State & Ahmedabad District

30. IIM Ahmedabad Ahmedabad District Viramgam Dholka Ahmedabad City Daskroi Dehgam Sanand Dhandhuka Ahmedabad Municipal Area 21.9 0 N 23.4 0 N 71.6 0 E 73 0 E Latitude Longitude

31. IIM Ahmedabad Ahmedabad District Profile Note: Figures in brackets show % Urban share

32. IIM Ahmedabad LPS Coverage for Ahmedabad Industry LPS Covered Major Emissions Chemicals Manufacturing 66 CO 2, SO 2, NO x Dyes Manufacturing 25 CO 2, SO 2 Others Industries 9 CO 2, SO 2 Pharmaceuticals 2 CO 2, SO 2, NO x Steel Foundries and Fabrication 94 CO 2, SO 2 Textile Mills 4 CO 2, SO 2, NO x Textile Processing and Dyeing 17 CO 2, SO 2

33. IIM Ahmedabad CO 2 Emissions 20002030

34. IIM Ahmedabad SO 2 Emissions 20002030

35. IIM Ahmedabad  Disjoint between future GHG and local emissions  LPS emissions continue to dominate national emissions, thus providing focused mitigation possibilities  AIM/Local a suitable tool for District/City level emission analysis Conclusions