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Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) Modeling Sub-group An introduction to ENERGY 2020 April 26, 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) Modeling Sub-group An introduction to ENERGY 2020 April 26, 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group (ICCAG) Modeling Sub-group An introduction to ENERGY 2020
April 26, 2007

2 An introduction to ENERGY 2020
Model Overview Model Structure Behavioral Modeling Modeling Principals Demand Overview Supply Overview

3 Overview of ENERGY 2020

4 Overview of ENERGY 2020 Owned by Systematic Solutions Inc. (SSI)
Integrated North American economy, energy and emissions model Multiple U.S. and Canadian regions Energy end-use sector disaggregation Electricity, oil, gas supply details GHG and CAC emissions

5 Model Structure Sector Relationships
CAC and GHG Emissions SUPPLY Electric Utility/IPPs Gas Supply Oil Supply Coal Supply International Supply International Trade DEMAND Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Demand Prices Prices Policy Costs: (investments, permits, taxes...) Gross Investments Gross Output Utilization Tax Rates, Inflation Interest Rates Tax Rates Inflation Interest Rates Financials MACROECONOMIC MODEL

6

7 Major Model Inputs Economic Activity World Oil Prices
GDP, Gross Output, Personal Income World Oil Prices US Natural Gas Prices Technological Change Process Improvements Device Improvements Historical Energy Demands, Prices, Emissions

8 Major Model Outputs Fuel Usage for All Fuels
Device and Process Efficiencies Fuel Shares Electricity Generation, Capacity, Prices Oil and Gas Imports and Exports Emissions – GHG and CAC Outputs for all end uses, sectors, and provinces

9 Behavioral Model Dynamically describes the behavior of both energy suppliers and consumers for all fuels and for all end-uses Decisions are endogenous to the model Flexible policy scenario analysis capability

10 Modeling Principles Key Decisions are Endogenous Marginal Decisions
Stocks and Flows Causality vs. Correlation Actual vs. Optimal Decisions

11 Analysis Distinction Not Optimization
Want to know risk not hopes; dynamics not static solution Not Classical Econometrics Need to robustly focus on unprecedented actions and events Causal Dynamics Time Delays and Feedback Dynamics Psychology, Statistics, Engineering, Economics Simulates actual as opposed to assumed responses

12 Demand Overview

13 Demand Determination:
Capital Formation Energy is a derived demand Fuel and Technology Market Shares Must select fuel and efficiency level Stock and Flow Accounting Capital and Energy Stock by Vintage Converting energy requirements into actual energy demand Utilization of Capital and Energy Stock

14 Demand Determination

15 Economic Sectors Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation
Other Single Family Multi Family Other Residential Transportation Services Pipelines Communication Electric Utilities Gas Utilities Water & Other Utilities Wholesale Retail FIRE 10. Offices - Business Services 11. Education 12. Health & Social 13. Food, Lodging, Recreation 14. Government Food & Tobacco Textiles Apparel Lumber Furniture Paper Printing Chemicals Petroleum Products 10. Rubber 11. Leather 12. Cement 13. Glass 14. Lime & Gypsum 15. Other Non-Metallic 16. Iron & Steel 17. Aluminum 18. Other Nonferrous 19. Fabricated Metals 20. Machines 21. Computers 22. Electric 23. Equipment 24. Transport Equipment 25. Other Manufacturing 26. Metal Mining 27. Non-metal 28. Mining 29. Light Oil Mining 30. Heavy Oil Mining 31. Frontier Oil Mining 32. Oil Sands In-Situ 33. Oil Sands Mining 34. Oil Sands Upgraders 35. Gas Mining 36. Coal Mining 37. Construction 38. Forestry 39. Agriculture 1. Passenger 2. Freight 3. Off Road 1. Misc. & Street lighting 2. Electric Resale 3. Utility Electric 4. Generation 5. Industry Electric Generation 7. Steam Generation 8. Solid Waste 9. Waste Water 10. Incineration 11. Land Use

16 End-Uses

17 Supply Overview

18 Electricity Supply Functional Divisions Distribution Transmission
Marketing Generation Capacity Expansion (developed endogenously) Generation and Fuel Use Electricity Prices Emissions

19 Other Supplies Oil Mining Gas Mining Coal Mining
CHP – Steam Production Ethanol Production Renewables

20 Policies considered

21 ENERGY 2020 in US Midwest Utility – Electricity Forecast
Bonneville Power Administration – RTO Analysis Detailed Transmission Model Western Interconnect Michigan – GHG Reduction Bio-Fuels for Transportation Renewable Electric Generation Economic Impacts Hawaii – GHG and Oil Dependency Energy Efficiency Demand Response (AC Peak Shaving) Bio-fuels Produced and Used Locally

22 Overview of ENERGY 2020 Questions?

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