European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Jacques Delsalle European Commission European Commission DG Environment, Unit C1 Update on TREMOVE Transport Model C.A.F.E. WG TSPA Brussels, 10 November 2004

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Objective of TREMOVE further development l TREMOVE model was developed for 2nd Auto-Oil Programme l It was assessed in 2001: recommended further development l Objective : Make available to the European Commission services a transport model m environmental and economic analysis, up to 2020 m different policies and measures to reduce the atmospheric emissions (incl. greenhouse gases) m all modes of transport (road, rail, aviation, maritime and inland waterways) m enlarged European Union (first step : 4 new M/S)

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Structure of TREMOVE

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe TREMOVE Development : project status l Lot 1 (2003) m Model design and preliminary baseline (2.0) completed March 2004 l Lot 2 (2004) m Baseline consistency checks with RAINS m Stakeholder Consultation on model and baseline m Draft final baseline 2.2 available on m Full model ready: End Nov 2004 (revised baseline 2.3, all modules) l Lot 3 (Dec 2004 – Oct 2006) : Policy Simulations m Identification of emission reduction options

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Policy Scenarios l C.A.F.E. m Euro 5 (December 2004) m Euro 6 (March 2005) m Ships Emissions (January 2005) m Other Transport Measures (February 2005) r Inland Freight Infrastructure Charging r Most polluting vehicles (Scrapping / Retrofitting / Zones) r Urban Transport Plan l CO 2 +Cars Scenarios for 120 g/km l Next: m Follow up C.A.F.E., Urban Strategy, Aviation, Review WP CTP, etc.

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe TREMOVE Demand Vehicle Stock Emissions Life Cycle Emissions Welfare RAINS PRIMES (Partial Equilibrium on Energy Market) Activity in Agriculture and other sectors GDP, Demographic assumptions Activity Emission Factors Emissions Air Quality Impact Target Setting Policy Options Cost-Benefits Analysis GEM E-3 (General Equilibrium Model) SCENES (European transport network model) Infrastructure Scenarios Energy Scenarios EMEP (Source- response relationships) Macro-economic & Competitiveness Impact RAINS & TREMOVE systems

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe TREMOVE Demand Vehicle Stock Emissions Life Cycle Emissions Welfare RAINS PRIMES (Partial Equilibrium on Energy Market) Activity in Agriculture and other sectors GDP, Demographic assumptions Activity Emission Factors Emissions Air Quality Impact Target Setting Policy Options Cost-Benefits Analysis GEM E-3 (General Equilibrium Model) SCENES (European transport network model) Infrastructure Scenarios Energy Scenarios EMEP (Source- response relationships) Macro-economic & Competitiveness Impact Integration between RAINS and TREMOVE sub-systems Interactions RAINS / TREMOVE

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe TREMOVE/SCENES vs. RAINS/PRIMES RAINSPRIMES Pax.km Ton.km Fuel Consumption Pollutants Emissions Macro-economic Assumptions SCENES Pax.km Ton.km TREMOVE Vehicle.km Fuel Consumption Pollutants Emissions (COPERT II in v. 2.0) Make both modelling frameworks singing from the same hymn sheet…

European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Transport l Infrastructure charging m Focus: inter-urban freight transport m Context :discussion on the proposal to revise the Eurovignette directive & review of the Communitys transport policy (White Paper). & m Analyse the potential of particular infrastructure charging options to reduce air pollution m Policy statement on the impact of differentiation according to air pollution criteria and impacts in sensitive areas. l Actions on most polluting vehicles m TREMOVE baseline : by 2020, pre-Euro I vehicles (therefore older than 20 years), [X]% of the vehicle stock, but [XX]% of NOx, [XX]% of PM, [XX]% of CO and [XX]% of CO2. m Options to reduce the contribution of these older vehicles to air pollution. r scrapping schemes for passenger and heavy duty vehicles r retrofitting options for heavy duty vehicles and buses r Enforced inspection and maintenance l Link with other strategies m Urban Transport : Potential contribution of measures to be further developed in the Urban Thematic Strategy r economic instruments (e.g. taxation, congestion charging, parking fees policy, etc.) r traffic management related policies (e.g. road vehicles restrictions or speed moderation, improvement speed public transport m CO2 and Cars r Impact on air quality of policy options developed in the context of the revision of the Community strategy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars will be analysed.