1. Transport and Climate Change Different Policy Scenario in France Maurice GIRAULT Ministère de l'Equipement, des Transports et du Logement, France I - Passenger and Freight Transport 1970-1996 II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 u methodology and field of projection u hypothesis and scenarios for transport policy III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results IV - Projection of pollution and CO2 1996-2020 u methodology and results V - Other specific measures against greenhouse effect in transport sector Annex I Expert Group meeting - Transport Roundtable, 18 February 2000

2. I - Passenger and Freight Transport 1970-1996 100 in 1990 GDP, Passengers-km and ton-km - Road, rail, air or Inland waterways

3. II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 u Methodology and field of projection Analysis of trends and econometric model for: F interurban passengers transport road, rail and air transport on national network F passenger road traffic local and urban traffic included F freight transport in France road, rail and inland waterways

4. II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 u scenarios and hypothesis for transport policy 3 scenarios for GDP F 1,9% F 2,3% F 2,9% per year

5. II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 u 4 hypothesis for regulation and transport policy F hypothesis A: market and liberal policy = fuel taxes constant F hypothesis C: taxes for charging external cost diesel excise from 0.37 to 0.65 Euro/l F for road freight : regulations are respected complied with 35 working hours a week under «cheep conditions». F external costs include safety, congestion and environmental costs.

6. II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 u 4 hypothesis for regulation and transport policy (ctd.) F hypothesis B: policy is middle way between A and C = BAU F hypothesis D: high transport taxes for slowing down road traffic F for road freight: regulations are respected complied with «expensive conditions» for 35 working hours a week.

7. III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results u Example of freight transport: the 3 scenario for GDP

8. III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results u Impact of hypothesis for regulation and transport policy Passengers transport, passenger-km

9. III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results u Freight transport: 1970-1996-2020 t-km

10. IV - Projection of pollution and CO 2 1995-2010-2020 Growth of CO2 emissions for road transport depends on changes in regulations and in % of diesel car. CO2 emissions with ACEA agreement Impact of air conditioning included

11. IV - Projection of pollution and CO 2 1995-2010-2020 Emission of carbon (with air conditioning) Millions tons of carbon Impact of air conditioning about emission of CO2: three millions tons in 2020. = 3,5% of car emissions or 2% of all vehicles emissions.

12. V - Other specific measures against greenhouse effect in transport sector u Projects and policies of non technical measures in France u Present national Program don’t allow to reach Kyoto’s targets u Six sectorial groups have been convened to propose new measures : F Transport F Housing F Energy F Specific uses of electricity F Agriculture and forestry F Industry u What reduction of carbon emission for each sector in France ? u What reduction for each sector in other European country ?

13. V - Other specific measures against greenhouse effect in transport sector u An integrated approach, closely co-ordinated with u Transport services master plans F A new approach at national and regional levels to define transport system objectives u Urban transport plans F A renewed approach to organise transport systems in big cities aiming to reduce road traffic and to improve other modes

14. n Twelve measures have been assessed:  Actions on HGV drivers  Speed reduction for LGV  Private drivers training  Speed enforcement  TERN traffic management  Traffic lights management  Public transport priority with TLM  Urban motorways traffic management  Supplementary measures to Cars Manufacturers agreement  Alternative vehicles  Urban transport plans  Urban policies (land use planning)

15. n 4 Transport scenarios used for services master plans n A scenario stability of excises and railways fare decreasing of air fare and of freight costs n B scenario stability of petrol excise and moderate rise of diesel stability of railways fare weak rise of freight costs n C scenario correction of diesel excise fall of railways fare for people n D scenario diesel and petrol price 2€/litre in 2020 fall of railways fare for people Kerosene taxation (50%) Big improvement of working conditions in road freight transport

16. n Only D scenario allows to reach Kyoto targets But it entails a social cost of 750 Euros /tC It is not socially acceptable. We need other solutions to reach this target. Main findings : Importance of transport policy and land use planning, particularly at European level

17. n Technical complementary measures, in continuation of Auto-Oil program: an agreement with light and heavy goods vehicles manufacturers, inclusion of N2O (resulting from cars catalyst) in Auto-Oil program, better vehicles design for air conditioning, speed limitation of cars by construction. n European policy for energy taxation: with important increasing of petrol and diesel minima of taxation, with a common European position for kerosene taxation in IACO.

18. n Common elements of transport policy : harmonisation of national policies for HGV (notably for speed limitors and tachometers control), harmonisation of working condition in road transport, development of light public transport systems in urban areas, development of a real intermodal and multimodal European system for goods transport (with a very important part of railways and sea shipping), and including regulation and strict management of road goods transport.