1. TREMOVE draft baseline Consistency check with PRIMES-RAINS draft baseline
17th May 2004
Bart Van Herbruggen
Transport & Mobility Leuven
Jacques Delsalle
European Commission
DG Environment, Unit C1 “Clean Air & Transport”

2. TREMOVE Development : project status
Lot 1 (2003)
Model design and preliminary baseline (2.0) completed March 2004 (available on
Lot 2 (2004)
Baseline consistency checks with RAINS
Baseline and model review for new Member States
Stakeholder Consultation on model and baseline
Identification of emission reduction options
Model ready: Oct (revised baseline 2.3, all modules)
Lot 3 ( ) : Policy Simulations

3. TREMOVE/SCENES vs. RAINS/PRIMES
Making 2 modelling frameworks
singing from the same hymn sheet…
PRIMES
Pax.km
Ton.km
Fuel Consumption
RAINS
Pollutants
Emissions
Same macro-economic Assumptions
Same macro economic assumptions
SCENES is a network model, with a realistic representation of investments and origin/destination flows.
In PRIMES, transport demand based on a GDP ratio
PRIMES does not calculate vehicle. Km
Comparison with TREMOVE fuel consumption may come from different load factors, but also different unitary fuel consumption
Emission factors in RAINS based on fuel consumption
In TREMOVE, based on veh.km and speed (COPERT II)
Fuel Consumption
SCENES
Pax.km
Ton.km
TREMOVE
Pollutants
Emissions
(COPERT II
in v. 2.0)
Vehicle.km

4. Projection Passenger Transport Volumes 2020 close (-4.3%) for road
SCENES has been calibrated in 1995 with PRIMES values

5. Projection Freight Transport Volumes 2020 close (+1.5%) for road.

6. Fuel consumption underestimated in TREMOVE (-23% in 2000)
Fuel consumption underestimated in TREMOVE (-23% in 2000). Gap increases by 2020
The strong increase of diesel share in TREMOVE plays a role in fuel consumption trend:
TREMOVE RAINS-PRIMES
Diesel %
All veh. 53% 81% 52% 59%
Cars + LDV 36% 71% 32% 32% 

7. TREMOVE has stronger diesel penetration (80% vs
TREMOVE has stronger diesel penetration (80% vs. 60% in 2020) and impact on PM emissions.

8. TREMOVE baseline has lower NOx emissions

9. Off-Road: Demand and vehicle cate- gories not same in TREMOVE and RAINS
Slide not very useful
Maritime emissions still not available in RAINS
Scope for inland waterways and air transport is diferent

10. Next steps
Further co-ordination between TREMOVE, PRIMES AND RAINS modellers
Action on fuel consumption in TREMOVE:
Revised fuel consumption factors for passenger cars
Improvement truck modelling (load factors)
Assumption constant diesel share in RAINS to be modified
Further consistency check on RAINS emissions (different vehicle categories, non-road modes)
Revised Transport baseline ready for 31/8/2004

11. Stakeholders consultation on the TREMOVE Baseline
3 Contact Group meetings in Leuven (Belgium)
27th May: Transport Demand (SCENES)
28th May: Vehicle Stock (incl. Diesel share)
21st June: Emissions (COPERT III)
Agenda:
Baseline consistency check
Focus on new Member States
If interested, please contact: