16 th April 2008 Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company Thierry PFLIMLIN President & CEO Total Oil Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd 2 nd ARF Seminar on.

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Presentation transcript:

16 th April 2008 Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company Thierry PFLIMLIN President & CEO Total Oil Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd 2 nd ARF Seminar on Energy Security

2 16th April 2008 Severe imbalances in world wealth and energy Russia and FSU $ / capita 3,6 tep / capita Latin America* $ / capita 1,1 tep / capita Africa $ / capita 0,7 tep / capita Europe $ / capita 3,8 tep / capita North America* $ / capita 7,9 tep / capita Middle East $ / capita 2,7 tep / capita Japan & Pacific OECD $ / capita 4,5 tep / capita China $ / capita 1,5 tep / capita India 800 $ / capita 0,6 tep / capita Source: IEA Balances, Total projection. IMF GDP current $. * North America : US + Canada, Latin America includes Mexico Average GDP : $ / capita Average annual consumption of energy : 1,8 tep / capita Year 2006

3 16th April 2008 Population and economy transforming the 2030 map Source : UN, world population prospects, IEA. Total OECDNon-OECD Energy demandGDP (at exchange rates) Trillions (2000$) % 4.9% 2.2% Population Average growth/year % Billions 1.2% 0.2% MBoe/d % 1.8% 1.7% 0.6%

4 16th April % of the energy mix still derived from fossil fuels in 2030 World energy demand* Million boe/day Renewables (including hydro & biomass) Nuclear Coal Gas Oil * Primary energy Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 and Total + 0.8% / year % / year ,8% / year + 1,2% / year % 17 % 25 % 13 % 3 % % 21 % 25 % 13 % 6 % % 22 % 27 % 6 % 15 % 79 %

5 16th April 2008 A supply forecast barely reaching 100 Mb/d… Oil demand and supply forecast(*) Total demand forecast Mb/d Natural gas liquids Crude oil including heavy oil GTL, CTL (*): excluding biofuels Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 and Total

6 16th April 2008 …as a result of OPEC influence and the complexity of new projects Sources: IEA, Total Tight market fueling a high price environment Breakeven oil price of new projects in $/bbl Oil resources in billion barrels Oil need from 2005 to OPEC Middle East Other Conventional Deep water Ultra deep water Enhanced Recovery Heavy oil Arctic

7 16th April 2008 Greenhouse gas emissions: the major issue for sustainable growth CO 2 emissions by sectorCO 2 emissions : Potential savings Gton CO 2 Demand efficiency measures Improved efficiency in the Power sector Increased Renewables Increased Nuclear 65% 12% 13% 10% IEA Alternative policy scenario IEA Reference scenario Power generation Industry Transport Residential and services Other Gton CO 2