1. GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS May 15, 2012 Presented by: SERGEY PALTSEV Principal Research Scientist Massachusetts Institute of Technology STRIKING A BALANCE IN THE MIDST OF CHANGE May 13-16, 2012 Québec City, Québec (Canada)

2. MOTIVATION  Shale Gas  LNG and Global Market  Move from Coal to Gas  Move to Renewables  Economics vs Geopolitics

3. MAJOR POINTS Global natural gas use will grow from the current 110 Tcf to 160 Tcf in 2030, and 180- 190 Tcf in 2050. Gas markets are still regional (U.S., Europe, Asia) Integrated gas markets lead to an even greater use and relatively lower prices.

4. MAJOR POINTS (Cont.) Watch for surprises -U.K. gas -U.S. gas -Poland gas -China gas U.S. - $2-4, Europe - $8-10, Japan - $15: A case for long-term substantial U.S gas exports? -Maybe not. Shale gas in China might be a game changer -But perhaps not in the next decade

5. NATURAL GAS PRICES, BP (2011) Winter 2011-2012 Prices: US – (Sept - $4; March - $2), UK - $10 (NBP on Oct 3 – $6.50; Feb 7 - $15.50, end of March - $9.40), Germany - $11, Japan - $15-16.

6. GLOBAL NATURAL GAS USE

7. NATURAL GAS RESOURCES Global Consumption: 2000 - 100 Tcf 2050 – 160-190 Tcf Global Reserves: 6,600 Tcf (BP, 2010) Global Resources: World – 16,000 Tcf (plus shale gas in non-North America) Source: MIT (2011)

8. INTERNATIONAL GAS MARKET DEVELOPMENT, 2030 Regional Markets Source: MIT (2011) Global Market

9. NATURAL GAS IN EUROPE Source: MIT Joint Program Report 201 (2011) GHG policy and nuclear power reduction change the prospects

10. NATURAL GAS IN ASIA Source: MIT Joint Program Report 201 (2011) Even more uncertainty Government support Use in residential sector (heating and cooking) and industry

11. SHALE GAS RESOURCES Source: EIA (2011) No estimate for Russia or the Middle East Global Resources: 16,000 Tcf Additional Shale : 6,000 Tcf Global Resources: 22,000 Tcf Poland: IEA (2011) – 187 Tcf Poland Government (2012) - 12-28 Tcf; Might be up to 67 Tcf

12. SHALE GAS IN CHINA Source: EIA (2011)

13. (NO) SHALE GAS IN CHINA AND GLOBAL SUPPLY Source: Paltsev, Ejaz, O’Sullivan (2012)

14. SHALE GAS IN CHINA AND GLOBAL SUPPLY Source: Paltsev, Ejaz, O’Sullivan (2012)

15. CHINA GAS – POTENTIAL FUTURES Consumption Production Shale gas availability changes gas prospects in China

16. CHINA GAS – POTENTIAL FUTURES By 2050 China might become natural gas exporter Imports

17. MAJOR POINTS Global natural gas use will grow from the current 110 Tcf to 160 Tcf in 2030, and 180-190 Tcf in 2050. Gas markets are still regional (U.S., Europe, Asia) Integrated gas markets lead to an even greater use and relatively lower prices. Watch for surprises -U.K. gas; U.S. gas; Poland gas; China gas U.S. - $2-4, Europe - $8-10, Japan - $15: A case for long-term substantial U.S gas exports? -Maybe not. Shale gas in China might be a game changer -But perhaps not in the next decade

18. THANKS ARE DUE Qudsia Ejaz Francis O’Sullivan Ernest Moniz John Reilly Henry Jacoby Tony Meggs Jim Jensen Picture: toonpool.com