1. 23.September.2009 Francisco Saraiva Renewable Energy and Security of Supply A view from a TSO Cigrés International Colloquium

2. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 2 Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid

3. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 3 The Key Drivers TOTAL COST OF ENERGY OIL/GAS IMPORT DEPENDENCY CO2 EMISSIONS Security of supply Climate changeCompetitiveness Business as Usual is unsustainable SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

4. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 4 SECURITY OF SUPPLY Primary energy sources Adequacy of supply systems

5. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 5 WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION

6. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 6 More Energy EFFICIENCY is needed The Sleeping Giant ….

7. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 7 Prices highly influenced by numerous factors (extraction and refining capacity, availability of resources...) Productions growth might stop in 10-15 years Conventional oil reserves. Countries with > 1 Gt oil reserves Source: BGR TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: OIL

8. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 8 Regional distribution of estimated ultimate recovery of conventional natural gas (2007) Source: BGR Prices linked to oil Environmental friendly energy (comparing to coal and oil) High efficiency of the electricity production technologies using NG (CCGT) TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: NATURAL GAS

9. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 9 TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: COAL Abundant and worldwide distributed According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) coal will be the primary energy source with the higher growth until 2030 But.... a major CO 2 emitter Proven reserves (10 biggest producers) Source: WEC, SER (2007) Relatively stable price Reserves estimated in 150 years, at current consumption rate

10. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 10 The traditional fossil energy resources are limited Alternatives are required ….

11. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 11 ENERGY SCENARIO is CHANGING all over the World EUA: American Clean Energy And Security Act European Union: Energy and Climate Package G8, IEA Outlook, COP

12. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 12 « Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically and socially..... What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution » World Energy Outlook 2008 - International Energy Agency (IEA) 12.Nov.08

13. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 13 The New ENERGY PARADIGM Energy Efficiency Endogenous and Renewable Energy Sources and other Low-Carbon technologies

14. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 14 Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid

15. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 15 Lighting Rail transport Heat Pumps PHEVHousehold Appliances Motor Systems Industry Demand Side LESS ELECTRICITY WHERE POSSIBLE (electricity savings) MORE ELECTRICITY WHERE NECESSARY (more efficient processes; new uses)

16. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 16 Towards low-carbon power generation and new technologies in electricity supply Supply Side Fossil Fuels Renewables Low-Carbon Tech.

17. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 17 Sinergies + Security of Supply (less dependent on energy imports) + Environment Protection (less CO 2 emissions) Energy Efficiency (demand side) Renewable Power (supply side) Electricity + Sustainable Energy

18. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 18 Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid

19. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 19 Key technologies: Hydro power Wind energy Biomass Solar thermal power Photovoltaic Renewable Power

20. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 20 WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL Source: NASA Source: 3TIER SOLAR Power POTENTIAL In any given hour, more energy from the sun reaches Earth than is used by the whole human population in any given year 1070 * GW OF CAPACITY WORLDWIDE FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES 2007 – installed capacity * Including Large Hydro (830 MW)

21. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 21 WIND Power INTERMITENCY Intermitency Non-Dispatchable Power Need for STORAGE to: D ECOUPLE the L OAD (consumption) and the G ENERATION (renewable power) diagrams R EDUCE T HE R ISK OF L OSS of renewable resources

22. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 22 Wind / Hydro complementarity 16.Dec.2006 600 MW 100 MW Wind Power declined from 600 MW ( during base hours) to 100 MW within 4 hours 800 600 400 200 0 04812162024... Demand rises and Wind delivered Power declines MW STORAGE - HYDRO Power

23. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 23 STORAGE - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Cars Low-Carbon Electricity replaces Fossil Fuels in the Transportation sector Electricity from sustainable energy resources can be used Zero emissions at the point of use Simple, silent, and affordable to operate They can store energy and provide Operational Reserve to the System Portugal

24. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 24 EUROPE (EU) – Ambitious Targets for 2020

25. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 25 www.energyfromportugal.com PORTUGAL A case of success 43%: 2007 to a reference hydro condition (1997)

26. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 26 Wind PowerHydro PowerOther renewables Energy Efficiency Installed more than 2000 MW in 3 years Goals: 5100 MW in 2010 and 8500 in 2020 Create 2 industrial and R&D clusters Optimize current unused hydro potential (>45%) Anticipate existing facilities reinforcement Implement the National Hydro Plan Promote a diversified policy on other RES 250 MW biomass 750 MW PV solar 250 MW wave 100 MW biogas Innovative policy on micro- generation (650 MW by 2015) Set a 10% energy efficiency improvement target by 2015 Free distribution of 4,5 million efficient lamps Energy efficient buildings policy National Plan for electric car roll out Complementary wind/hydro policy

27. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 27 PORTUGALS WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY Source: MEI

28. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 28 NATIONAL HYDRO PLAN Source: MEI, DGEG, REN UDI Database HYDRO POTENTIAL vs INSTALLED HYDRO CAPACITY (since 1975)

29. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 29 Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid

30. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 30 More RENEWABLE ENERGY Grid Expansion/Reinforcement Huge Investments New lines Reinforcement of existing lines; New substations (receiving wind) More transformation power More reactive energy compensation capacity Control and command equipment modernization In the future: One-way transmission systems (from power plants to consumers) or … a different model?

31. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 31 The new Grid model paves the way for the integration of distributed generation (renewables and other micro-generation, …) and consumer side applications (demand response, home made energy, …) Source: Smart Gris – Vision and Strategy for Europes Electricity Networks of the Future SMART GRIDS

32. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 32 SMART GRIDS BENEFITS New uses of the electric grid (operation and consumer side applications) More distributed generation can be integrated with the grid Mass-scale renewables integration Consumer incentive for efficiency Updating the way we get our electricity by staring to build a new SMART GRID that will save us money, protect our power sources from blackout or attack, and deliver clean, alternative forms of energy. U.S.A. President Barack Obama, 2009

33. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 33 More SUSTAINABLE energy …... more GRID more RENEWABLE energy (increased operational flexibility) … more ELECTRICITY (in the global energy mix) …

34. Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September 2009 34 Tomorrows Energy Todays Challenge