Residential Single Family HVAC UES Measures Proven and Planning UES Measure Proposals Adam Hadley Regional Technical Forum December 16, 2014

Background – This is a follow-up to: The August 2014 presentation – At that meeting, the RTF put a bunch of issues on the whiteboard. And The September 2014 presentation – At that meeting, the RTF: adopted the proposed Weatherization savings, but not the HVAC measures gave staff the direction to add measure identifiers to the heat pump conversion measures. Background - 2 Today, we’ll revisit the HVAC Measures

Measure(s) Overview Overview - 3 Measures 1. ASHP Conversions - Convert existing electric FAF to central air source heat pump 2. ASHP Upgrades - Install a new a) 9.0 ASHP, or b) Variable Capacity HP 3. Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, & Sizing (CC&S) - When installing a new heat pump, follow CC&S spec. 4. Performance-based Duct Sealing - Tighten existing duct system to spec. 5. Ductless Heat Pumps - Install DHP in main living area of zonal electric heated house. Measure Developers RTF, Ecotope, BPA Technical Subcommittee Review Yes Research & Evaluation Core Group Review Yes, for CC&S Research Plan.

UES Key Inputs Notes: All measures are additive (except: “9.0 upgrade + VCHP upgrade”, and DHP’s). Things in red are new, as compared to existing measures. ASHP = Central air-source heat pump Overview - 4 MeasureBaselineEfficient-Case Measure Interaction Methodology Measure Category ExistingProposed ASHP Conversions Existing electric FAF New Standard Practice ASHP Measure Identifiers (Good, Fair, Poor) Proven ASHP Upgrade (9.0) New Standard Practice ASHP New 9.0 or > HSPF ASHP “Option 3”Proven ASHP Upgrade (VCHP) New Standard Practice ASHP New 10.0 or > HSPF inverter- driven ASHP “Option 3”ProvisionalProven Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing New Standard Practice ASHP New Heat Pump installed to CC&S Spec “Option 3”ProvenPlanning Performance-based Duct Sealing RBSA Average Duct Leakage 9% Leakage“Option 3”ProvenProvisional Ductless Heat Pumps Existing zonal electric heat DHP in main living area “Option 3”Proven

“SEEM-affected HVAC Measures Subcommittee” Dec 2, :00pm – 4:00pm Heat Pump Conversion Measure – Reviewed and recommend the RTF use the measure identifier methodology and associated calculator. (David Baylon agreed, too, afterward.) Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing Measure – Reviewed and recommend the RTF adopt the revised measure specifications. – Agreed to use a 90% compliance rate factor in the planning UES estimate. – Agreed (with quick review) the Research Plan looks reasonable and will get us closer to proven category. Performance-based Duct Sealing Measure – Reviewed and agreed with baseline and efficient-case assumptions for the provisional UES estimate. – Agreed the “Research Plan” should be simply to wait for BPA’s evaluation results, and re-assess at that time. Technical Subcommittee - 5 Attendees: Mark Jerome Adam Hadley Rick Knori David Bopp Bill Harris Mark Johnson Courtney Dale Robert Weber Tom Leinhard Mohit Chhabra David Baylon Josh Rushton Cory Read Robert Davis Thomas Anreise Jim Maunder Ben Larson Bob Davis Jenn Anziano

Air-Source Heat Pump Conversions ASHP Conversions - 6

Heat Pump Conversion Measure Identifiers Previous Proposal (Option 3) – HP Conversion savings 3279 kWh/yr Today’s Proposal (measure identifiers) – Calculator tool [LINK] to establish insulation levels[LINK] Method: Evenly split the range of possible savings (based on range of Uo’s in RBSA) into three bins – HP Conversion Savings (Heating zone 1) 7020 kWh/yr where house has “Poor Insulation” 4815 kWh/yr where house has “Fair Insulation” 2610 kWh/yr where house has “Good Insulation” Example : – House with eFAF receives attic insulation, wall insulation, floor insulation, and heat pump. Compare the sum of savings with various orders of installation of the heat pump (before, after, and in-between insulation jobs; assume 1-year between each measure installation). Sum of savings should be the same. ASHP Conversions - 7 Given: Previous Proposal Today’s Proposal Reminder: Subcommittee reviewed and agreed with this methodology. Changes made after the subcommittee review: Incorporate Phase II calibration, and run methodology for heating zones 2 and 3.

Remaining Question from Subcommittee Should Duct Sealing be modeled as “last measure in”, or “first measure in”? – Savings shown here use LMI. Justification: Less likely to double-count savings. (And it’s how we’ve done things in the past.) – Some on subcommittee recommended FMI. Justification: The RBSA is a good reflection of what houses look like. We don’t want to undercount savings. – (Q: Why not use “Option 3”? A: Complexity) ASHP Conversions - 8

Measure Cost Inputs Measure cost methodology same as proposed in August Measure Life: 15 years ASHP Conversions - 9

All measures are cost-effective ASHP Conversions - 10 Results

All Measures are cost-effective, except "Good Insulation" HZ3 (all cooling zones). ASHP Conversions - 11 Results

Decision “I _________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Conversions and set the measure to Proven category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2019.” ASHP Conversions - 12

Air-Source Heat Pump Upgrades ASHP Upgrades - 13

Measure: Upgrade to 9.0 HSPF Changes – Unit Energy Savings Used updated, calibrated SEEM “Option 3” for measure interactions Measure Cost: $81 ASHP Upgrades - 14

Changes Measure: Upgrade to Variable Capacity Heat Pump Unit Energy Savings – Used updated, calibrated SEEM – “Option 3” for measure interactions – Incorporated findings from provisional research (plan)(plan) Report: Hunt, W Laboratory Testing of Residential, Variable Speed Heat Pump. Bonneville Power Administration. Portland, OR. – Lab test in “Efficiency Mode” Report: Larson, B., B. Davis, J. Uslan, and L. Gilman. “Residential Variable Capacity Heat Pump Field Study.” Prepared for BPA by Ecotope. August 30, [LINK][LINK] – 8-week field study of 6 units in Bend – Units were set up in “Comfort Mode”; otherwise good comparison with lab results – Developed SEEM performance curves Measure definition: 10.0 HSPF or higher; central system with variable capacity using an inverter driven compressor Note: Because measure is not cost-effective, this measure received less due-diligence from RTF Contract Analysts than DHP’s and HPWH’s, for example. Inputs and savings look reasonable, however. ASHP Upgrades - 15

Measure: Upgrade to Variable Capacity Heat Pump VCHP Install Cost: $3,958/ton – Limited Data – Source: Invoices, Project Bids, Installer Interviews – Used lower quartile because of “extras” – 2014$’s Measure Cost (3 ton, 2006$’s) – 8.5 HSPF (baseline) $5,523 (Source: Mark Jerome) – VCHP $10,443 – Measure cost: $4,920 ASHP Upgrades - 16

All 9.0 HSPF upgrades are cost-effective. None of the VCHP upgrades are cost-effective. ASHP Upgrades - 17 Results

Decision ASHP Upgrades - 18 “I _________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Upgrades and set the measure to Proven category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2019.”

Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing HP CC&S - 19

Changes Specifications [LINK] updated[LINK] – Subcommittee agreed with where the July 2013 subcommittee landed, and agreed with removing PTCS QC/QA/Certification/Training requirements (reason for removing “PTCS” from the name).July 2013 subcommittee Research Plan [LINK][LINK] – Technical Subcommittee agreed with research plan – Evaluation Subcommittee raised some questions and needs more time – Summary Field visit of 150 Baseline Houses Field visit of 150 Efficient-case Houses Results will be used to true-up model input assumptions to today’s practices Budget: ~$350,000 Unit Energy Savings (Planning) – Used updated, calibrated SEEM – “Option 3” for measure interactions – 90% specification compliance rate (technical subcommittee-proposed) – Modeling assumes 80% airflow in baseline, based on 2005 NEEA/Ecotope Heat Pump Study (now a capability of SEEM) HP CC&S - 20

All measures are cost-effective. Note: Measure Cost = $512 (2006$’s), per SIW (no change) HP CC&S - 21 Results

Decision HP CC&S - 22 “I ________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure specifications, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing and set the measure to Planning category with Under Review status and a sunset date of 4/2015.” Note: The purpose of the Under Review status and sunset date of 4/2015, is to give time to finalize the Research Plan.

Performance-based Duct Sealing Performance-based Duct Sealing - 23

Changes Unit Energy Savings (Provisional) – Used updated, calibrated SEEM – “Option 3” for measure interactions – Baseline now set at average RBSA duct leakage levels Research Plan: – Plan: Wait for BPA re-evaluation, then re-assess No separate written plan, just this. – Sunset date 12/2015 (BPA plans to finish Q4-2015) Removed “PTCS” from the name – Seen as a program branding – Avoid confusing CC&S with duct sealing – Avoid confusing with “prescriptive duct sealing” Performance-based Duct Sealing - 24

All measures are cost-effective. Note: Measure cost = $750 (2006$’s), per SIW (no change) Performance-based Duct Sealing - 25

Decision “I ________ move the RTF approve the Provisional Research plan and the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Performance-based Duct Sealing and set the measure to Provisional category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2015.” Performance-based Duct Sealing - 26

Ductless Heat Pumps DHP - 27

Changes Unit Energy Savings – Incorporated “Option 3” for measure interactions DHP - 28

All Proposed measures are cost-effective, except HZ3 CZ1. (No change from Existing.) DHP - 29

Decision “I ________ move the RTF approve the update (“Option 3”) to the measure savings for the UES measure Single Family Ductless Heat Pumps. The measure definition, cost, life, and sunset date will remain the same.” DHP - 30

Additional Slides 31

Decisions “I _________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Conversions and set the measure to Proven category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2019.” “I _________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Upgrades and set the measure to Proven category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2019.” “I ________ move the RTF approve the Planning Research plan and the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing and set the measure to Planning category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2015.” “I ________ move the RTF approve the Provisional Research plan and the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Performance-based Duct Sealing and set the measure to Provisional category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2015.” “I ________ move the RTF approve the update (“Option 3”) to the measure savings for the UES measure Single Family Ductless Heat Pumps. The measure definition, cost, life, and sunset date will remain the same.” All - 32

Slide from August 2014 Presentation Methodology for Estimating Costs for FAF  HP and Zonal  DHP Measures Net Incremental Cost = Heat Pump Cost – CAC Cost Credit – RAC Cost Credit – FAF Replacement Cost (FAF replacement cost = $1030 for HP; not applicable to DHP) 33 3