1. Manufactured Homes Calibration: New Construction Regional Technical Forum September 22 nd, 2015 Mohit Singh-Chhabra

2. Presentation Objectives Approve proposed calibration for electric resistance (ER) heated new homes Approve proposed direction for Heat Pump (HP) homes Approve proposed measure analysis for – ENERGY STAR MH – Ecorated MH Approve proposed deactivation for High Performance Manufactured Homes (HPMH) 2

3. Manufactured Home Calibration 3

4. MH Calibration Status Existing Homes: June ‘15: RTF approved ER calibration curve – At the same meeting RTF decided that HP curve does not provide reliable results – RTF approved the use of ER Wx savings estimates as planning estimates for HP homes August ’15: RTF approved HP Upgrade and Conversion Planning measures – Use adjusted SF ER savings values New Homes October ’14: RTF directed staff to re-think the calibration for new construction 4

5. Today – CAT Analysis of NEEM Data NEEM homes are new homes that are more efficient than code, not as efficient as ENERGY STAR/ Ecorated – CAT was provided data on NEEM homes for analysis and possible calibration Using this data, CAT has modified the ER calibration curve for application to NC Heating Zone 1 – The modified ER curve update does not have much impact on existing homes New points pretty much in line with RBSA The NEEM data on HP homes do not line up with the RBSA data on HP homes – Hence, modifying existing HP curve is not recommended – CAT proposal is to develop Planning Savings Estimates and outline a proposed Research Strategy 5

6. Data used for update Data includes: VBDD heating energy analysis estimates Location (city) Home size – Square footage – Single/ double/ triple wide Lighting power density 6 Heating SystemHeating Zone 1Heating Zone 2Heating Zone 3 Electric Resistance151310 Heat Pump14101

7. Analysis Overview SEEM.69 models constructed as per NEEM spec and compared to VBDD estimates SEEM.69: NEEM specs provided basis for models – Note: NEEM specs do not cover all building properties required by SEEM MH calibration standardized inputs used for SEEM input fields not covered by NEEM specs Lighting power density taken from the NEEM dataset Duct leakage and infiltration values from the 2006 NEEM MH study (Summary of 2006 NEEM MH: Field Data and Billing Analysis – Ecotope ) 7

8. Introduction to Analysis Intent of the analysis is to study difference in modeled and billing data based heating energy estimates for homes in the sample – Does a trend exist? Y – Axis: percentage point difference between VBDD and SEEM X – Axis: SEEM.69 kWh/sf 8

9. NC Calibration Results – Elec. Resist. Heat 9 Above this line, SEEM overestimates heating energy compared to VBDD Below this line, SEEM underestimates heating energy compared to VBDD  Smaller x-value indicates a warmer climate and/or a more efficient home spec

10. NC Calibration Results – Elec. Resist. Heat 10

11. Key Takeaways NEEM data provide data points in the low SEEM.69 kWh/sf range that, align well with RBSA based calibration curve Electric resistance curve can be extended for application to new construction – David Baylon, Bob Davis (Ecotope) were presented this analysis as well. They agreed that the data support the curve 11

12. Issue with Applying Curve to Calculate Calibrated Savings On application of calibration curve, heating savings for HZ1 > savings for HZ2 and HZ3 for ENERGY STAR homes look like: Majority of the data used for calibration is from HZ1 – We hoped that the curve would capture climate related effects, but the savings imply that it doesn’t 12

13. Alternate Option (Staff Proposal): Modify Savings Based on SEEM Heating Estimates Use electric resistance curve to develop heating energy savings for HZ1 Apply a SEEM estimated heating energy consumption ratio (HZn/HZ1) to baseline and efficient case HZ1 Phase 1 calibrated consumption to calculate Savings for HZ2 and HZ3 Comparison of example heating savings (kWh) of the two methods for ENERGY STAR new homes 13

14. Staff Proposal (Contd.) This methodology is an approximate engineering adjustment to develop reasonable savings estimates. HZ2 and HZ3 New Construction measure savings estimates do not meet Guideline requirements for Proven Staff recommends that New Construction measures for HZ2 and HZ3 be categorized as Small Saver – Approximate energy savings potential using 7 th Plan forecasts through 2025 are less than 5 aMW for HZ2 + HZ3 14

15. NC Calibration Results – Heat Pump 15

16. NC Calibration Results – Heat Pump 16

17. Key Takeaways Not a big enough sample to identify a single best trend – Final savings results sensitive to what may seem as small changes in interpreted consumption trend – David Baylon, Bob Davis (Ecotope) were presented this analysis as well and agreed with above assertion There could be many reasons for the observed scatter, including system sizing, duct condition, and lack of knowledge of in-situ HP controls settings – Note: A research strategy to collect more data on that aspect has been approved by the RTF…(coming up) 17

18. Proposed Methodology: Planning Estimate for NC HP Measures Planning HP heating energy consumption estimate is calculated by dividing eFAF energy consumption estimate by average COP per heating zone The COP for each run is calculated as SEEM electric heating output divided by SEEM electric heating input COP per HZ is calculated as an average of the individual COP for all new construction runs 18

19. New Construction HP Research Strategy Direction 19 This would be a modification to the existing MH HP Related measures Research Strategy Field audit + Billing data with sufficient detail to develop a NC calibration CAT will further develop this strategy, present it to the R&E subcommittee. Will bring an R&E subcommittee recommended Research Strategy to the RTF

20. RTF Decision Slide “I ________ move that the RTF: Accept staff proposed calibration curve for New Construction Electric Resistance heating homes in HZ1 and Use Staff proposal to develop savings estimate for HZ2 and HZ3 using calibrated HZ1 consumption and SEEM output for HZ2 and HZ3” 20

21. Manufactured Home NC: ENERGY STAR Homes & Manufactured Home NC: Ecorated Homes 21

22. Measure Background Measure Name:MH ENERGY STAR Homes Current Measure Category: Proven Proposed Measure Category: Proven Current Measure Status:Under Review Proposed Measure Status:Active Measure Sector:Residential End Use:New Construction Current Sunset Date:August, 2015 22

23. Measure Background Measure Name:MH Ecorated Homes Current Measure Category: Proven Proposed Measure Category: Proven Current Measure Status:Under Review Proposed Measure Status:Active Measure Sector:Residential End Use:New Construction Current Sunset Date:November, 2015 23

24. Current Measure Specifications 24 ComponentBaselineEnergy StarEcoRated Ceilings (flat) R-26 R-49 U=0.025 Ceilings (vaulted) R-40 U=0.029 WallsR-13R-21 U=0.055 R-21 w/no trade off & requires insulated header u=0.055 FloorsR-24R-33 u=0.033R-38 Blown-in R-33 u=0.033 GlazingU=0.4U=0.35U=0.3 area weighted avg Appliances built-in BaselineENERGY STAR Dishwasher; ENERGY STAR Refrigerator LightingNo requirement50 % fixture CFL80% fixture CFL Envelope Tightness 5.0 ACH 50 Heating System 78% AFUE Gas FAF; or Electric Furnace; or 7.7/13 Heat Pump 80% AFUE Gas FAF; or Electric Furnace; or 7.7/13 Heat Pump 90% AFUE Gas FAF; or Electric Furnace; or 7.7/13 Heat Pump Duct Leakage13%10%5%

25. Measure Update Summary Energy Efficiency specifications have had minor changes since last update. – ENERGY STAR homes Vaulted ceilings are R 40, used to be R-38 – Glazing, Ecorated has U0.30 window requirement, used to be U0.33 – 80 % CFL in Ecorated, updated from 50% – No more savings from improved water heater due to update in Federal Standards – Received confirmation from the authors of the spec (Brady Peeks) Updated baseline specifications as per SBW recommendation memo. o Memo recommends using RTF baseline defined in High Performance (HP) MH workbook. o Baseline based on a 2012 report by Northwest Energy Works “High Performance Manufactured Home Project: State of the Industry Report Prepared for BPA.” 25

26. Measure Update Summary (contd.) Applied RTF approved MH RBSA SEEM Phase 1 & 2 calibration for eFAF to calculate HZ1 savings – Engineering adjustment applied for HZ2 and HZ3 – Used SEEM based annual COP for calculating HP heating energy savings Conducted all simulations in SEEM96 Updated workbook to latest ProCost version. 26

27. Measure Update - Lighting New Residential Lighting Workbook applied to calculate baseline lighting energy use and energy savings RBSA data used to determine lamp type data per average MH – Total sockets, sockets per lamp type Res Lighting workbook applied to RBSA determined lamp data to calculate baseline energy consumption, savings and incremental cost 27

28. Measure Update Summary (Costs) Measure costs for appliances and lighting updated using latest RTF workbooks and SIW. Proposed (and current) workbook uses the following as a proxy: – Insulation: SF cost data – Windows: SF and MF cost data – Same approach as approved MH Wx workbook 28

29. Assumptions Made to Develop Cost Data Window Costs: Measures required installing U-0.30, U-0.35 windows instead of U-0.40 SIW only has costs of upgrade from U-0.35 to U-0.30 SIW upgrade cost was used to extrapolate incremental cost as follows: – U-0.40  U-0.35 = SIW(U-0.35  U-0.30) – U-0.40  U-0.30 = 2 x {SIW(U35  U-0.30)} 29

30. Assumptions Made to Develop Cost Data (contd.) Insulation upgrade costs in the SIW have a fixed and an incremental component As per SIW, insulation upgrade costs are: $/sf = (Constant) + ∆R x (Slope) For new construction, incremental cost was computed as: $/sf = ∆R x (Slope) – This modification is intended to account for incremental cost of material only 30

31. Assumptions Made to Develop Cost Data (contd.) Duct sealing costs for new construction assumption unchanged Current cost = $160 – Note: Current cost did not have a source 31

32. ENERGY STAR Homes: Energy Savings 32 Small Saver Planning Measures

33. ENERGY STAR Homes: Incremental Cost 33

34. ENERGY STAR Homes: Cost- Benefit Analysis Results 34 Small Saver Planning Measures

35. Ecorated Homes: Energy Savings 35 Small Saver Planning Measures

36. Ecorated Homes: Incremental Cost 36

37. Ecorated Homes: Cost-Benefit Analysis Results 37 Small Saver Planning Measures

38. RTF Decision Slide “I ______ move that the RTF approve the analysis for electric resistance heated ENERGY STAR and Ecorated homes for HZ1 and Keep status at active and category at Proven Set sunset date to September 2020 I ______ move that the RTF approve the analysis for electric resistance heated ENERGY STAR and Ecorated homes for HZ2 and 3 and Change category to Small Saver, keep status Active Set sunset date to September 2020 “I ______ move that the RTF approve the analysis for Heat Pump heated ENERGY STAR and Ecorated homes and Change the measures to Planning and Under Review Set sunset date to September 2020 38

39. Manufactured Home NC: High Performance Manufactured Homes 39

40. Measure Background Measure Name:High Performance Manufactured Homes Current Measure Category: Proven Proposed Measure Category: Deactivate Current Measure Status:Active Proposed Measure Status:Deactivate Measure Sector:Residential End Use:New Construction Current Sunset Date:August, 2015 40

41. 41 ComponentUnitsHigh Performance Manufactured Home CeilingR-ValueR45 (area weighted avg.) WallR-ValueR21 + R5 Foam Sheathing (int. framing) Window U-ValueU-Value0.22 Glazing % of CFA12% DoorU-Value0.2 FloorR-ValueR38 InfiltrationACH 503.0 VentilationExhaust FanENERGY STAR UoBtu/hr-ft 2 -°F0.040 Heating SystemDHP HSPF 10 & Wall Heaters Cooling SystemDHP SEER 20 Supply Duct Leakage% system flowNo Ducts Return Duct Leakage% system flowNo Ducts Water HeaterEFHPWH Shower Headgpm1.75 LPDW/ft 2 0.6 DishwasherENERGY STAR RefrigeratorENERGY STAR Notes: Aggressive building envelope specs Requires both DHP and HPWH

42. Current State of the Measure In the last 2 years, only 8 HPMH have been deployed in the region; similar participation is forecast for the future Due to high incremental cost, complexities in manufacturing and transporting… these homes are not being aggressively pushed/ championed Northwest Energy Works intends to use the current HPMH spec to develop a NEEM 2.0 spec which would be between the current NEEM and HPMH spec – Expect better uptake for NEEM 2.0 42

43. Staff Proposal Deactivate this measure Current and projected rate of uptake does not justify continued Staff resource – The current savings estimate will still be on RTF website but not be RTF approved after deactivation Staff will work with Northwest Energy works to develop the NEEM 2.0 measure when the specs are ready – The current HPMH are being monitored, results from this monitoring effort will be essential while developing savings estimate for DHP and HPWH in MH 43

44. Decision Slide “I ______ move the RTF to deactivate the measure “High Performance Manufactured Homes” 44