Migration and the Pursuit of Graduate Jobs Migration and the Pursuit of Graduate Jobs by Irene Mosca Robert E. Wright Department of Economics University of Strathclyde November 4, 2009 “ “Making An Impact – Universities and the Regional Economy” Woburn House Conference Centre, London

Introduction One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of the United Kingdom Why? Not a great deal is known about this. Regional focus: England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales Export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services Such Information is being fed into the CGE analysis Slide 2/23

Policy Relevance: Scotland Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland Migration flows of students and graduates thought to “reinforce” migration flows of general population (north and west to the east) “Belief” that building HEIs in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends Costs versus benefits of “free higher education” Over-education and under-employment issues Slide 3/23

Table 1 Percentage Growth Rates of Various Higher Education Student Groups, 1994/ /08 Type of Student:ScotlandUK Full-time Part-time Under-graduates Post-graduates Foreign Science Non-science All students Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency

Table 2 Place of Domicile of Students at Scottish Higher Education Institutes, 1994/05 and 2007/ /052007/08 Place of domicile: Numbers% % Scotland 103, , England 20, , Northern Ireland 4, , Wales Foreign 16, , Missing 2, All 148, , Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency

Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK. Match data from three datasets: (1) Students in Higher Education Institutions (2) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education Institutions 13 cohorts of graduates: 1994/95 to 2006/2007 (3) Destinations of Leavers From Higher Education Longitudinal Survey 1 cohort of graduates: 2002/03 Data Slide 10/23

The HESA data provide four key postal addresses: domicile (1)Place of domicile study (2)Place of study employment: Six months after graduation (3)Place of employment: Six months after graduation (4)Place of employment: 36 months after graduation This allows us to identify different migration types: “movers versus stayers”

Table 3 Place of Domicile/Place of Study Matrix Place of Study EnglandScotlandWalesNI Place of Domicile England100% Scotland100% Wales100% NI100%

Table 4 Place of Study/Place of Employment Six Months Matrix Place of Employment Six months EnglandScotlandWalesNI Place of Study England 100% Scotland 100% Wales 100% NI 100%

Table 5 Place of Study/Place of Employment Six Months Matrix Place of Employment 36 months EnglandScotlandWalesNI Place of Employment Six Months England 100% Scotland 100% Wales 100% NI 100%

What are the determinants of graduate migration flows? Fit logit regression models where the probability of migrating is related to observable characteristics Analysis for today focuses on the Scottish experience Today concerned mainly with Scottish-domiciled graduates who studied at Scottish higher education institutions Consider “First-degree graduates” and “post-graduate graduates” separately Fit similar models for England, Northern Ireland and Wales for comparative purposes

FINDINGS Scottish-domiciled “first-degree graduates”: Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for: Male Full-time Black ethnic background Graduated at age 22 (inverted U-shape) Science (or Science-led) 1 st Class degree Russell Group university Moved to go to HEI Regional effect (higher for Strathclyde region) Decline between

Scottish-domiciled “post-graduate graduates” Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for: Male Full-time Non-white ethnic background Graduated at age 26 (inverted U-shape) Science (or Science-led) Russell Group university Moved to go to HEI Regional effects of domicile less pronounced Little change in

How big are these effects? STEP 1: Create an hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the “average” characteristics of Scottish graduates and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating. GRADUATE “A” STEP (2) Create another hypothetical (first degree) graduate with the following characteristics: Male Full-time White ethnic background Graduated at age 22 Science 1 st Class degree Russell Group university and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating. GRADUATE “B” STEP (3) Compare the difference in the predicted probabilities

Predicted Probability of Migrating : Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates Graduate AGraduate B Scotland3.9%21.5%

Predicted Probability of Migrating : Scottish-domiciled undergraduate graduates Graduate AGraduate B Scotland3.9%21.5% England0.8%2.0% Northern Ireland8.1%26.7% Wales3.1%11.4%

Conclusions?