1. Participation in full-time higher education 1996- 2010: a home international perspective Linda Croxford and David Raffe University of Edinburgh Changing Inequalities and Access to a Differentiated HE System Seminar at the University of Edinburgh, 14 June 2013

2. Participation in full-time higher education 1996- 2010: a home international perspective Widening participation (WP) As HE expanded, have more working class/ ethnic minorities succeeded in entering HE? Home-international differences and devolution Do trends in participation differ across the UK? Are these associated with differences in tuition fees following devolution? Cross-border flows Which students enter HE in the rest of UK (RUK)? Success rates How fair is the admissions process?

3. Widening participation (WP)

5. As HE expanded, have more working class/ ethnic minorities succeeded in entering HE? This was a period of expansion in UK HE: the number of UK-domiciled entrants rose by 53% The proportion of ethnic minority entrants increased The social class composition of entrants did not change much over the period

6. Home-international differences and devolution

7. Devolution: tuition fees 1998 an up-front annual fee of £1,000 was introduced across the UK 2000 – Scotland replaced fees by a smaller graduate endowment (deferred) 2006 –England & N Ireland increased fees to £3000 (deferred) - accompanied by fair access measures. 2007 –Wales - increased fee to £3000, but offset for Welsh students by extra student grant 2007 –Scotland- graduate endowment abolished 2010 – Wales –extra student grant abolished

10. Are there different trends in participation across the UK? Working class-participation is highest in Northern Ireland and lowest in Scotland The introduction of fees did not reduce working-class access to HE – and in Scotland their abolition did not increase it. Ethnic minority participation has increased most in London and (to a lesser extent) in the rest of England

11. Cross-border flows

13. Declining proportion of UK students studying in another home country (home-country trend more than home- region trend) English and Scottish-domiciled students are least likely to enter RUK institutions Even in 2010 around one third of new students from Wales and N Ireland studied outside their home country The outflow of students from Wales was matched by an even larger inflow from the rest of the UK Most cross-border flows either by English students or to English institutions Decline in flow of N Ireland students to Scotland – but flow to English HEIs remained steady

14. Factors associated with RUK applications in 2010 EnglandWalesNIScotland Male++- Ethnic minority-+++ High social class++++ Low social class---- High qualifications++++ Low qualifications-- [Chosen subject]

15. Wales: social impact of fee differentials Date2004200620082010 Fee differentialNOYES NO Working class as percent of all applicants 24262827 Percent applied to non-Welsh institutions: % of middle class80757176 % of working class69615765 Percent entered non-Welsh institutions: % of middle class49413843 % of working class35292830 Working class as % of all entrants24252726 Working class as % of all entrants to Welsh institutions 282930 Working class as % of all entrants to non-Welsh institutions 18192119

16. Which students enter HE in the rest of UK (RUK)? Those applying and entering RUK were most likely to be well-qualified middle-class students seeking places at Russell Group universities But many less-qualified students from N Ireland (and Wales) go to post-92 universities in England Ethnic minority students from Scotland, N Ireland and Wales more likely to go to England to study But ethnic minority students from England more likely to remain in England Fee differentials for Welsh students in 2006-8 did not reduce working-class participation

17. Success rates

19. Fair admissions? (results of statistical models of entry to any HE institution) 1.Prior qualifications are main predictor of success 2.Applicants from managerial & professional classes had higher success rates – even after controlling for prior qualifications 3.Ethnic minorities more successful than white applicants 4.Applicants from independent schools less successful – and from FE Colleges more successful 5.Effects of 3 and 4 above explained by selectivity of institutions applied to (analysis of entry to pre-1992 institutions shows opposite effects)

20. Home country differences in success rates (ie interactions) None of the social class effects differed between home countries Scottish applicants from independent schools were more likely to gain an HEI place (but no difference in entry to pre-1992 university) N Irish and Scottish applicants from FE Colleges were more likely to gain an HEI place Ethnic minority students from Scotland were less likely to gain an HEI place

21. Finally This study shows: The persistence of social inequalities in participation in HE; Similarity in inequalities between home countries – but compositional differences; No effect on inequalities of country differences in tuition fees; Slight decline in cross-border flows – but a complex pattern