1. Upward and onward A study of Scots out-migration from a global city from a global city Allan Findlay, Donald Houston, Colin Mason, David McCollum and Richard Harrison.

2. Research context ESRC Scottish Demography Programme. ESRC RES – 342-25-009 ONS Longitudinal Study: 30048A

3. Background Traditional flows of young, talented individuals from periphery to economic core regions. Traditional flows of young, talented individuals from periphery to economic core regions. London as a key global city. London as a key global city. South East England (including London) as the UK’s ‘escalator region’ – Fielding (1992), Champion (2004). South East England (including London) as the UK’s ‘escalator region’ – Fielding (1992), Champion (2004). Transients and the global city – Conradson and Latham (2005). Transients and the global city – Conradson and Latham (2005).

4. Research aims: Investigating the factors behind the declining Scots born population of London. Investigating the factors behind the declining Scots born population of London. Comparing the occupational mobility of Scots in South East England with other groups and places. Comparing the occupational mobility of Scots in South East England with other groups and places. Exploring return migration from the South East to Scotland. Exploring return migration from the South East to Scotland.

5. Scots leave London Scots born population of London and the South East Location 19912001% change Greater London113,117108,602-4% South East including London 301,586261,373-13% South East excluding London 188,469152,771 -19% Source: CASWEB census dissemination unit. Migration flows from London to Scotland, selected years. Year 19851991199520012005 Total flow5,5797,7666,4188,2358,200 Source: NHSCR Migration from Scotland to Greater London and the South East, 1991 and 2001 Location 19912001% change Greater London7,0417,529+7% SE excl London7,7227,525-3% Source: UK National Census one year migration data.

6. Scots on the escalator Data relating to proportions of the English and Scottish born populations of England in socio-economic groups 1 and 2 at the 2001 census. Population % of population in socio-economic group 1 (higher managerial & professional) % of population in socio-economic group 2 (lower managerial & professional) % of population in socio-economic groups 1 & 2 Scots resident in SE 21.6735.0956.76 Scots resident elsewhere in England 15.0030.9245.92 English resident in SE 13.9029.1343.03 English resident elsewhere in England 9.5724.3833.95 Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study

7. Continuing career gains from migration to the South East Occupational mobility of Scottish and English born residents of England 1991-2001. PopulationOccupational mobility into groups 1-2 (in %)* Scots resident in SE25.85 Scots resident elsewhere in England20.66 English resident in SE21.95 English resident elsewhere in England17.84 Residents of England overall18.98 Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study *expressed as a percentage of all people in each row of the table. Variables testedPearson Chi-square value Significant at 0.01 the level? Place of birth versus occupational into mobility groups 1-2 20.954Yes Place of residence versus occupational mobility into groups 1-2 325.541Yes Place of birth versus place of residence. 44.483Yes

8. Log linear modelling of occupational mobility Once place of residence is included, additional variance is explained by place of birth. Once place of residence is included, additional variance is explained by place of birth. A third significant effect is evident involving place of birth and place of residence. A third significant effect is evident involving place of birth and place of residence.

9. So why are Scots leaving?

10. Not in retirement but in early career. Age structure of Scots returnees from SE (including London) by destination 2001. Age cohort All Scotland EdinburghGlasgowAberdeenNorthern rural Scotland Other council areas 0-1411.567.2511.09 12.1710.6513.28 15-2933.3044.404 0.2741.2725.0330.45 30-4432.6534.3535.2634.3929.5332.45 45-5913.429.298.665.2922.2813.36 60-746.893.563.343.7010.107.92 75+2.181.151.373.172.412.94 Source: Calculated from special tabulations provided by GROS

11. Propensity to return No relationship by NS-SeC. No relationship by NS-SeC. Strong relationship by education level. Strong relationship by education level.

12. Destination selectivity by class and education

13. Attitudes to return Educated Scots more likely than other skilled immigrants in South East to return to area of origin? Educated Scots more likely than other skilled immigrants in South East to return to area of origin? Likelihood of return to area of origin, degree qualified in migrants in SE. Response ScotsOther immigrants Possibly31.0%26.3% Definitely17.2%13.2% Total48.2%39.5% Source: authors’ survey

14. Map showing location of the 4 survey areas; Lambeth, Merton, Oxford and Milton Keynes.

15. Conclusions Declining Scots population of South East England despite continued attraction of career opportunities in South East. Declining Scots population of South East England despite continued attraction of career opportunities in South East. Increasing migration (including returnees) to Scotland from the South East. Increasing migration (including returnees) to Scotland from the South East. Many returnees are young, highly educated and in active employment. Many returnees are young, highly educated and in active employment. Need for re-theorisation of service class migration in relation to global cities. Need for re-theorisation of service class migration in relation to global cities.