2. Employment Research Institute Napier University WORKING WITH THE NEW DEMOGRAPHICS - THE SCOTTISH LABOUR MARKET Ronald McQuaid Employment Research Institute, Napier University, Edinburgh

3. Employment Research Institute Napier University Outline Introduction demographic change in the Scottish population characteristics of older workers work experiences among older workers social legislation and policies aimed at older workers some issues for services and employers

4. Employment Research Institute Napier University Demographic Changes Increased life expectancy Changes in fertility –total fertility rate 1.49 (UK 1.6) in 2001 –3.02 in 1964 Demographic profile Changes in population distribution

5. Employment Research Institute Napier University Persons aged 65-79 as % of total pop. Source: 2001 Scottish Social Statistics (www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/sss).

6. Employment Research Institute Napier University International Projected % Population Changes 2001-30 Source: GRO(S)

7. Employment Research Institute Napier University Population Projections for Scotland by Age Group Age Group* 19992004200920142019 Children under 1619.718.817.817.317.2 Working ages 16-64/5962.362.8 64.960.4 Pensionable ages 65/60 & over 18.018.519.517.922.5 65/60-7411.311.412.09.914.0 75-845.15.55.65.96.2 85 & over1.6 1.92.12.3 *Pensionable age is 65 for men, 60 for women until 2010; between 2010 and 2020 pensionable age for women increases to 65 and the figures take account of this. Source: Brown (2001).

8. Employment Research Institute Napier University Population Change 1991-1999 In Scottish Regions Source: Raeside and Khan, 2003.

9. Employment Research Institute Napier University Characteristics of older workers in the labour market the employment patterns of older workers. the decline in activity among older workers. the training and skills of older workers. the situation for older female workers. older workers working past state pension age. older workers with caring responsibilities.

10. Employment Research Institute Napier University Characteristics of older workers in UK labour market 8.6 million people aged 50 to State Pension Age (SPA), 68% of whom are in employment, - 19% of the total working population Older workers (50-SPA) are more likely to work part time (25%) Older workers more likely to be self-employed (16%) compared to those 25-49 (11%) Average length of current employment is higher for older workers: 12.8 years compared to 7 years for those 25 to 49

11. Employment Research Institute Napier University Characteristics of older workers - Cont. Older people have fewer qualifications than their younger counterparts ILO unemployment rates for older people are lower than for younger one ILO unemployment rates for older people are lower in England compared to Scotland: 3% compared to 5% Older people are much more likely to be long- term unemployed and to be inactive Source: Labour Force Survey, Autumn 2001

12. Employment Research Institute Napier University Economic Inactivity Rates (50- SRA)(50-Re Scotland29.5 Moray 10.0 Aberdeen City 16.5 Dundee City 23.2 Edinburgh, City of28.5 Glasgow City 40.7 South Ayrshire 44.4 Source: Labour Force Survey February 2003.

13. Employment Research Institute Napier University Economic Inactivity Rates For Age 50-Retirement Age In UK Area Countries England28.0 Great Britain28.5 Scotland29.5 Wales34.3 Government Regions Eastern23.5 South East23.6 South West25.7 East Midlands26.6 West Midlands28.0 London30.2 Yorkshire and The Humber31.1 North West31.2 North East39.1

14. Employment Research Institute Napier University The Work Experiences Of Older Workers The employers’ perspective Employees perspectives of work and transitions to retirement

15. Employment Research Institute Napier University Older Workers, Social Policy And Legislation Age Discrimination Employment policies for older workers Pensions and Retirement

16. Employment Research Institute Napier University Issues Numbers, skills, characteristics, productivity of labour, training Solutions for the nation (and employers)? –Birth Rate –In-migration –Increase participation and activity rates –Extending working life

17. Employment Research Institute Napier University Issues cont. Some implications for service provision? PPP – a mis-selling scandal in the making? Changing balance of services Grey political power Entitlements when people retire gradually Involving volunteers with professional services Who pays?

18. Employment Research Institute Napier University Professor Ronald McQuaid Employment Research Institute Napier University Redwood House 66 Spylaw Road Edinburgh EH10 5BR Tel. +44 131 455 5103 Fax +44 131 455 5102 r.mcquaid@napier.ac.uk http://www.napier.ac.uk/depts/eri/home.htm

19. Employment Research Institute Napier University http://www.napier.ac.uk/depts/eri/home.htm