1. The Retention of Graduate Human Capital: An Analysis of Graduate Migration Flows in and out of Scotland by Alessandra Faggian University of Southampton & Cher Li Robert E. Wright University of Strathclyde ERSA Conference, Liverpool, Aug. 2008

2. Introduction One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of GB Why bother? Not a great deal is known about this. Regional focus: Scotland, England and Wales export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services Information along these lines will be fed into the CGE analysis Slide 2/23

3. Policy Relevance Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland Migration flows of students and graduate thought to reinforce migration flows of general population (north and west to the east) “Belief” that building Higher and Further Education institutions in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends Slide 3/23

4. HESA (Higher Education Statistical Agency) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK. We use two datasets: (1) Destinations of leavers from HEIs (DLHE) (2) Students in HEIs 12 waves available from 1994/95 to 2005/2006 For current analysis, we focus on the most recent wave (05/06) which includes information on around 2.4 million students and around 230,000 graduates. Data Slide 4/23

5. A Brief Picture of HEIs in Scotland 20 HEIs: 8 pre-92 Universities, 6 post-92 Universities and 7 Colleges (mainly clustered around Glasgow and Edinburgh) Total number of students in 05/06: 215, 820 Number of students went up by 44.9% between 94/95 and 05/06 (c.f. national average 49.1%; England 48.7%). Slide 5/23

6. Figure 1: students per 1,000 population, by countries, 1994/95- 2005/06 UK average Scotland Slide 6/23

7. Some descriptives… Locations of HEIs and Employment Matrix, 2005/06 Place of Employment EnglandScotlandWalesNI Place of Study England 182,302 (97.5%) 1,719 (0.9%) 2,211 (1.2%) 777 (0.4%) Scotland 2,268 (10.5%) 18,982 (88%) 51 (0.2%) 263 (1.2%) Wales 4,258 (35.4%) 60 (0.5%) 7,707 (64%) 16 (0.1%) NI 229 (4%) 57 (1%) 5 (0.1%) 5,371 (94.9%) Total 189,057 (83.6%) 20,818 (9.2%) 9,974 (4.4%) 6,427 (2.8%) Slide 7/23

8. Quality of Graduates: In-Flows to and Out-Flows from Scotland) Graduate IN- FLOWS Graduate OUT-FLOWS PG32.2%24.9% 1st10.8%10.6% 2.132.8%26.7% TOTAL75.8%62.2% % of Graduates with PG Degrees or 1 st / 2.1 Entering the Region for Work Scotland 75.80% London 74.50% SW England 72.90% East 72.50% SE England 72.20% Yorkshire & Humberside 69.20% East Midlands 68.90% West Midlands 68.40% NE England 67.40% NW England 67.10% Wales 66.10% Slide 8/23

9. The HESA data provide three key postal addresses: domicile (1)Place of domicile study (2)Place of study employment (3)Place of employment 3 migration types This allows us to identify 3 migration types Slide 9/23

10. Stayers, Interregional Movers V.S. Leavers Two different movements studied here: 2. MEDIUM DISTANCE 2. MEDIUM DISTANCE movements (interregional but within country) – interregional re- allocation of skilled labour 1.LONG DISTANCE 1.LONG DISTANCE movements (inter-country within GB) – ‘brain drain’ or ‘brain gain’? Leavers (L) Interregional movers (I) Slide 10/23

11. Breakdown of Migration Type for Scotland and the Rest of GB Migration Types Scotland (Model 1) England & Wales (Model 2) Stayers 12,233 (65.3%) 118,799 (60.9%) Interregional Migrants 5,594 (29.8%) 75,515 (38.7%) Leavers 918 (4.9%) 643 (0.3%) Total 18,745 194,957 Slide 11/23

12. Model 1 OUT- migration Leavers (Scottish OUT- migration) Stayers Model 2 Interregional Mover Interregional Mover Stayers IN- migration Leavers (Scottish IN- migration) Slide 12/23

13. OUT-flows (Model 1) IN-flows (Model 2) of graduates We model both OUT-flows (Model 1) and IN-flows (Model 2) of graduates from and to Scotland using a Multinomial Logit Model to identify both problems of: Retention Retention of graduates within Scotland (Model 1: stayers and interregional migrants) Attraction Attraction of graduates from outside Scotland (Model 2: leavers from England and Wales) Slide 13/23

14. MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELLING j=Leavers,Interregional Migrant, Stayer (base category) q=individual identifier Slide 14/23

15. ***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level Base outcome: Stayer Interregional Migrants in Scotland Leavers for England/Wales Relative-risk ratiosz-valuesRelative-risk ratiosz-values Graduate-specific Characteristics Male 1.176***4.301.520***5.67 Age 1.000-0.200.956***-7.02 Ethnicity (Benchmark-White) Black 0.708-1.064.555***4.23 Asian 0.679***-2.771.377*1.66 Mixed 0.683-1.460.691-0.71 Degree Class 1st/2:1 degree 1.0631.271.591***5.35 Postgraduate 1.374***6.421.417***3.18 Subject Studied (Benchmark-Arts & Humanities) Social Sciences 0.897**-2.102.197***6.26 Sciences 1.0270.543.636***10.81 Combined 0.946-0.274.715***4.67 HEIs Types (Benchmark-Old University) Ex-polytechnics 0.680***-8.460.492***-7.95 College 1.189**2.130.539***-3.28 Regional Effects (Benchmark-Strathclyde) Lothian 2.489***19.351.628***5.63 Central 12.523***25.661.3911.31 Fife 12.377***12.1111.476***9.49 Tayside 4.272***25.631.0530.37 Grampian 2.487***16.800.836-1.39 Highland 8.887***16.510.401-1.24 Estimation Results (Model 1) ***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level Slide 15/23

16. Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer.47 -.76.55 -.6.65 -.43.77 -.26.91 -.1 1.07.07 1.26.23 1.49.4 1.76.56 I L S I L S I L S I L S I L S I L S Male 0/1 Black Ethnicity 0/1 Asian Ethnicity 0/1 Mixed Ethnicity 0/1 1 st /2.1 0/1 Postgraduate 0/1 Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 1) Slide 16/23

17. Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer.49.74 1.11 1.66 2.48 3.72 5.58 8.36 12.52 I L S I L S I L S I L S I L S Social sciences 0/1 Sciences 0/1 Combined 0/1 Ex-polytechnics 0/1 College 0/1 Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 1), cont Slide 17/23

18. Base outcome: Stayer Interregional Migrants in England/Wales Leavers for Scotland Relative-risk ratiosz-valuesRelative-risk ratiosz-values Graduate-specific Characteristics Male 1.314***26.561.759***6.90 Age 0.977***-35.740.971***-4.98 Ethnicity (Benchmark-White) Black 0.945**-2.001.3821.46 Asian 0.970*-1.610.467***-3.56 Mixed 1.0631.591.0720.23 Degree Class 1st/2:1 degree 1.398***28.391.560***4.42 Postgraduate 1.0221.601.713***4.73 Subject Studied (Benchmark-Arts & Humanities) Social Sciences 1.099***7.080.917-0.71 Sciences 0.900***-8.261.508***3.99 Combined 2.241***17.882.007*1.75 HEIs Types (Benchmark-Old University) Ex-polytechnics 0.537***-56.630.356***-11.33 College 0.524***-31.150.657***-2.59 Estimation Results (Model 2) ***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level Slide 18/23

19. Base outcome: Stayer Interregional Migrants in England/WalesLeavers for Scotland Relative-risk ratios z- values Relative-risk ratios z- values Regional Effects (Benchmark-North East) North West 0.761***-10.330.389***-6.51 Yorkshire & Humberside 1.324***10.710.411***-5.91 East Midlands 2.372***32.070.430***-4.71 West Midlands 1.112***3.820.236***-7.20 East of England 1.674***16.580.496***-3.27 London 0.761***-10.440.233***-9.09 South East 1.860***24.740.313***-7.36 South West 1.400***12.380.330***-6.21 Wales 0.916***-2.960.193***-7.60 Estimation Results (Model 2, cont) ***significant at 1% level, **significant at 5% level, *significant at 10% level Slide 19/23

20. Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer.47 -.76.55 -.6.65 -.43.77 -.26.91 -.1 1.07.07 1.26.23 1.49.4 1.76.56 I L S I L S I L S I L S I L S I L S Male 0/1 Black Ethnicity 0/1 Asian Ethnicity 0/1 Mixed Ethnicity 0/1 1st/2:1 degree 0/1 Postgraduate 0/1 Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 2) Slide 20/23

21. Factor Change Scale Relative to Category Stayer Logit Coefficient Scale Relative to Category Stayer.36.45.56.71.89 1.12 1.41 1.78 2.24 I L S I L S I L S I L S I L S Social sciences 0/1 Sciences 0/1 Combined 0/1 Ex polytechnics 0/1 College 0/1 Plots of Odds Ratios and Discrete Change Coefficients (Model 2), cont Slide 21/23

22. Conclusions and Future Work Future work  To incorporate more variables on regional characteristics, e.g. quality of life, social/economic environment;  To use more disaggregated regions for analysis of England/Wales, e.g. NUTS2;  Check for consistency of results over time and/or time trends by incorporating longer time series in the analysis Preliminary Conclusions  Scotland is a ‘net-loser’ of graduates in absolute terms, but vis-à-vis elsewhere in GB, it attracts the largest % of high-quality graduates  Determinants of leavers similar from and to Scotland: male(+), age(-), Asian(-), postgraduate(+), 1 st /2.1(+), science(+), combined(+), ex-polytech(-), college(-), and regional effects  Regional retention of human capital crucial: high-mobility graduates are of best quality Slide 22/23

23. Thanks for your attention! For more details on this project, see http://ewds.strath.ac.uk/iheirei/Home.aspx Or email: Cher.Li@strath.ac.uk