1. 1 Ageing and Fertility in Scotland by Robert E. Wright Department of Economics, University of Stirling Centre for Economic Policy Research, London Institute for the Study of Labour, Bonn Scottish Economic Policy Network February, 2004

2. 2 CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN SCOTLAND 1. Fertility 2. Morality 3. Net Migration

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6. 6 SUMMARY OF CURRENT SITUATION 1. Below replacement level fertility 2. Declining mortality (e.g. increasing life expectancy) 3. Zero net migration (i.e. No. of immigrants ≈ No. of emigrants)

7. 7 IF THE CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION REMAINS UNCHANGED: 1. Population will decline from its current level of about 5 million to about 4.5 million by 2041 2. Population will “age” rapidly, e.g. Increase in the number and percentage of people aged 65+ Decrease in the number and percentage of people aged < 15

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14. 14 IS POPULATION AGEING PROBLEMATIC? 1. Changes in the demand for health services 2. Changes in the demand for housing and residential services 3. Changes in the demand for state-supplied pensions and other age-related benefits 4. Changes in the supply of labour

15. 15 SOLUTIONS?

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20. 20 The main “cause” of population ageing is low fertility A) Increasing fertility will slow the ageing process B) Increasing net migration may slow the ageing process

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23. 23 THE AGE-SPECIFIC NATURE OF FERTILITY IS IMPORTANT

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