The PEV market: trends, challenges & opportunities Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center: phev.ucdavis.edu Generation 0 Vehicles.

Generation 3 HEVs 2014 Early core market: 6-15% of market Generation 2 HEVs 2010 Fast followers: 3-5% of market Generation 1 HEVs 1996 (Japan) 2004 Early market:1-2% HEV market developed in 3 phases: Japan: 3 rd generation HEV sales reached 19% in 2012, Prius is best selling vehicle 4 years in row California: 3 rd generation HEV sales reached 7-8% 2012, Prius best selling vehicle in CA in 2012 (60,000) USA: 3 rd generation HEV sales 3-4%, 2012 = 434,645 2

USA: How are we doing so far with PEVs? ) US HEVs (2 yrs from launch

4 USA sales 1 st gen PHEVs: 9 quarters

5 USA sales 1 st gen BEVs; 9 quarters

6 PEV market: glass half empty or half full? Stated annual USA PEV sales goals of car makers –Volt goals 45,000 - actual 2012 sales 23,500 –Leaf goals 20,000 - actual 2012 sales 9,819 Climate & energy independence goals –California million ZEVs by 2025 (5% of CA fleet) –USA: Obama - 1 million PEVs by 2015 (.3 % of USA fleet) –Germany, France – 1 million EVs by 2020

7 Size of potential PEV market in California , 4 year, 4 step UCD study: –A detailed project based on values, resources, vehicle purchase habits & travel needs of 600 CA households –Main assumptions: Hybrid household hypothesis: 2 vehicles: 1 BEV & miles of BEV range, PHEV 20 & 40 PEVs in midsize to compact sedans, priced close to ICE, Competition from gasoline, CNG, diesel no FCVs, no HEVs Gasoline was $1.50, middle of SUV market growth BEVs:15% of California annual sales PHEVs:not as well understood, potentially larger depending on prices… CNGs:less than 5%

Wuppertal Household Resources: A Small Percentage of Californians are Responsible for Most New Car Purchases 8 (about 33% of the new vehicles sold.) (In the last five years) (about 67% of the new vehicles sold.) Based on the CA sample of the NHTS 2009

Regulation: California Air Resources Board ZEV Program Other states “adopting” CA rules: Oregon, Washington, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island 9 Governor’s Executive Order 2013

Current PEV price comparison Vehicle ModelMSRP Purchase Price after Federal Tax Credit Lease Price per Month Chevrolet Volt$39,145 +$31,645$299/mo Nissan Leaf$28, ,800$21,300$200/mo Prius PHEV$32, ,500$30,300$269 - $459 HEV Prius$24,000 Toyota RAV4 EV$49,800$42,300 Tesla Model S$67,000$59,500$ /mo

05/09/ PEV Incentives USACalifornia Tax credits$400 per kWh / 200,000 per manufacturer $2500 for Toyota Prius $7500 for Leaf $7500 for Volt $2500 rebate Registration NA RoadsHOV lanes ElectricityTime of Use and free electricity at many public & workplace chargers

12 Market trends in California for PEVs USA: –250 million LDV vehicles –About 15 million vehicles sold per year California: –23 million light duty vehicles total, –About 1.5 million vehicles sold per year (10% of USA) California PEV trends: –More than 25,000 PEVs bought since 2010 –45% of PEVs are BEVs vs. 34% in the US market. –PEV Sales last quarter of 2012: 2.5% of cars (1 in 40) (not including 138,000 trucks) 6,000 out of 232,512 cars sold in California

Wuppertal Social context: PEVs sales in California are mostly in coastal communities Regionalization of sales California coastal cities, Portland, Seattle, Washington, California Incentives: $2500 for ZEV & Advanced Technology (Volt), Allowed to drive in high occupant vehicle lanes (HOV)

Wuppertal BEVs are in the core areas & PHEVs are in the suburbs (so far) BEV to PHEV ratio 14

2007 UCD survey: 53% of US new car buyers have a 110 plug within 25 ft. of where they park at night Data from Axsen and Kurani,

16 Those with detached houses & garages were more likely to have home recharge potential Data from Axsen and Kurani, 2008

17 California PEV Household Characteristics % of the vehicles are owned by private individuals, 4% by businesses & 1% by government & NGOs 83% have yearly income higher than $100K –46% incomes is higher than $150K –16% decline to state. 96% live in single family dwelling 96% own their house –1% rent in San Diego study –5% rent in other areas 42% have solar panels –18% consider installation –40% have no plan to install Mostly men, middle age, but shifting

18 Household Fleet Changes With the New BEV

Wuppertal Understanding the Additional Vehicles 19

Hybrids May Serve as a Gateway to Plug-ins but they are not replaced by the Leaf

Wuppertal Sales are often clustered, with surprising density in some neighborhoods 21

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BMW chose us to work with them on their MINI-E experiment in , so we got to do some BEV anthropology 1-year lease at $850/mo. + tax In-home charging stations (no public charging) Out of 550 MINI Es worldwide, 450 in US PHEV center surveyed over 150 MINI E drivers & interviewed 39 households during the year

MINI E owners learn a lot about electricity, more than they knew about gasoline How far can I drive on a kWh? Understanding of costs, efficiency Regenerative braking new Driving style and feeling for energy use 24

Most liked the MINI E & while it was impractical for some trips, drivers engaged in developing their own EV Territory EV driving zone Quiet driving experience Charging locations BEV community Geography of BEVs (distances, uphills, downhills, routes) Technology for this zone (GIS systems) 25

MINI E drivers were most enthusiastic about the intersection of clean & fun Strong value intersection for buyers MINI E was quiet, smooth, easy to drive, fast Electric vehicle has special place in public values 26

New vehicle introduction takes time…

Generation 1 PEVs Generation 2 PEVs Generation 3 PEVs % of market Fast followers: 3-5% of market Early core market: 6-15% of market PEVs (BEVs & PHEVs) market development 1 st generation PEVs: partial conversions, loss leaders, ¼ scale production (less than 100,000 annual) 1 st buyers (pioneers): High income, future focus, educated, willing to take risks. Very regionalized: coastal Calif, Japan, Oslo, Portland Oregon: tech industries, regulations, high incentives Charging system: home based, minimal public charging in non-optimal locations, 28

Generation 1 PEVs Generation 2 PEVs Generation 3 PEVs Early buyers 1- 2% 3-5% of market Early core market: 6-15% of market 2 nd generation PEVs market development Generation 2 PEVs: purchases simplified, mass production, improved performance, dedicated platforms, Fast followers: high income, still “future” focused, tech followers but social leaders in networks of first buyers Market: intensifies in same regions Charging system: simpler & optimized 29

Designing an optimal charger network 30

Charging surveys: What constraints do they face and what do they want? Charging models: What do we think they want & need? (Home, workplace, public, DC fast network design tools) Data acquisition: What, where & when do they charge? (need to monitor charge use- disaggregated through vehicle systems) (also issues of etiquette, social practice) Drs. Michael Nicholas, Gil Tal Justin Woodjack 31 Charge network design & rollout? Location, type, density, redundancy

Wuppertal Point of Diminishing Returns Reached at 200 DC Fast Charge Locations -model created with 1 day record for 30,000 California drivers

Survey Results (What do people want?) More than 1000 Leaf household responses Charging is needed (regional systems) –80% of drivers went to “1 bar” 8% –40% of drivers exceeded “home-based” range –7% would need charging to return from work Charging is used –30% charge out of home regularly –Level 1 is used more than level 2 at work (53%) –Level 2 is used more than level 1 elsewhere (78%) Charging is wanted –65% of Leaf owners suggested charger locations, mostly DC QC –Median distance home-QC was 44 miles (71 km)

Wuppertal Survey: Where do People Want Chargers? 34

Charger Choices in San Diego

Given Only 5 Choices, Priority is Home Area

What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) Home Charging VMT –60 Mile Veh. = 59% –80 Mile Veh. = 71% –100 Mile Veh. = 79%

Wuppertal What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)  Home Charging VMT –60 Mile Veh. = 59% –80 Mile Veh. = 71% –100 Mile Veh. = 79%

What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) Home Charging VMT –60 Mile Veh. = 59% –80 Mile Veh. = 71% –100 Mile Veh. = 79%

Wuppertal What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG)  Home Charging VMT –60 Mile Veh. = 59% –80 Mile Veh. = 71% –100 Mile Veh. = 79% L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2%

What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) Home Charging VMT –60 Mile Veh. = 59% –80 Mile Veh. = 71% –100 Mile Veh. = 79% L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2%

What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) Home Charging VMT –60 Mile Veh. = 59% –80 Mile Veh. = 71% –100 Mile Veh. = 79% L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2%

What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) Home Charging VMT –60 Mile Veh. = 59% –80 Mile Veh. = 71% –100 Mile Veh. = 79% L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% QC accommodates up to 10% additional

What Return do we Get for Infrastructure Investment? (VMT/GHG) Home Charging VMT –60 Mile Veh.= 59% –80 Mile Veh. = 71% –100 Mile Veh. = 79% L1 Work Charging is sufficient for ~5% L2 Work Charging is needed for ~2% QC accommodates up to an additional 10% EV miles

What did they “trade-in” for the LEAF? 602 of the 1150hh replaced a car for the LEAF with: Average mpg 26.3 (median 22mpg but 25% over 30mpg) Average age of 10 years but 25% newer than 5 years. Most are passenger cars but 18% are vans, SUVs and pickup trucks