1. The future of electromobility?
Vehicle R&D at CEVT
The future of electromobility?
Dr. Börje Grandin
Director Hybrid Technologies

3. Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology!
Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact
Observation:
All regulations are merging
and will be below 100g in
the future
Conclusion:
Technology for reaching low
CO2 must be adopted to a
global market.

4. Test cycle for fuel consumption measurements in
Product Planning
Fuel consumption can be reduced in 4 areas – New technology influence all 4 areas positively
Fuel consumption reduction, 4 steps
2. Using Energy
Measures to improve:
Reduce energy consumption of the vehicle– friction & losses
Improved transmissions
Downsizing ICE
Test cycle for fuel consumption measurements in
China and Europe
3. Energy recovery
Measures to improve:
Stop-Start – Smart generator strategy
Hybrids
1. Waste of Energy
Measures to improve:
Stop-Start – ICE off during vehicle stop
Hybrids
4. Shift away from oil based fuels
Measures to improve:
Plug in Hybrids
Pure Electric vehicles
Fuel cell vehicles

5. New technology… Do we need it?
Conventional technology capable…
New Technololgy needed …
25% P/T eff.
125
95g /km legal req.
35% P/T eff. = top performers!
100
70g /km legal req.
Volvo V40 75
50% P/T eff. = Very unlikely!
CO2 NED-C
g/km 50
Presentation: (klick) Lagkrav g/km.. Två linjer inritade som anger vilken verkjningsgrad på drivlinan som krävs för en fossilbaserad drivlina.. Med Gen III vea klarar vi 95 gram… men (klick) ny gränsen för EU diskuteras på 70g 2025… Volvo har certifierat V40 MY2013 till 88g CO2… vilket är outstanding och best in class. En konventionell ICE kopplat till transmission klarar maximalt 40-45% verkningsgrad..vid absolut bästa punkten. Alltså finns den en vattendelare för vad en konventionell teknik klarar.. Elektrifiering är helt enkelt nödvändig!
Den svarta prickade linjen indikerar ca 40% efficiency.. Under denna linje kommer konventionell teknik inte att kunna leverera… Fysikens lagar sätter gränsen. 25
1000
1500
2000 kg
Nb! Peak efficiency of an ICE~45%, transmission ~95%  42%...

6. Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology!
Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact
Observation:
All regulations are merging
and will be below 100g in
the future
Conclusion:
Technology for reaching low
CO2 must be adopted to a
global market.
We need to include a
shift away from oil based fuels

7. Could the battery vehicle be mainstream?
Running costs are lower for electric vehicle!
Assumption:
200 Wh/km for electric vehicle and 5l gasoline per 100km
Example: km / year
1:50 SEK / kWh & 15 SEK/l gasoline 
6750 SEK lower cost for electric vehicle per year
How many years to pay of the battery investment? … 
Om vi lyckas erbjuda en bil där cost of ownership betalas redan för första kunden är marknaden vidöppen. Andrahandsvärdet på bilen bör kunna hållas högt då kostnaden för andra kund på bilen är mycket låg. Detta hjälper upp kalkylen för första kunden.

8. Could the battery vehicle be mainstream?
Investment*
for 25kWh:
DoE target ~25kSEK
2020+ est. ~50kSEK
2015 cost ~75kSEK
Difference in
running costs
El. Vs Gasoline
15000 km/yr
20000 km/yr
Om vi lyckas erbjuda en bil där cost of ownership betalas redan för första kunden är marknaden vidöppen. Andrahandsvärdet på bilen bör kunna hållas högt då kostnaden för andra kund på bilen är mycket låg. Detta hjälper upp kalkylen för första kunden.
*Investment with 3% cost of capital

9. The battery vehicle as mainstream
If a 2020 DoE target price for batteries will happen it is likely
The customer will decide
However:
Recharging still limits usable range
Volume & weight will limit installed capacity
BEV will be an excellent commuter vehicle

10. PHEV or Battery vehicle?... Or both?
Electric vehicle
Battery cost
Plug-in Hybrid
Cost
Conventionell
ICE Vehicle
Larger tank…
Driving distance ?

11. Sizing the battery for every day driving
50km e-drive covers the daily driving for more than 50% of the population…
By providing a charge station during the day, a higher percentage of the population would be covered.
Published May 2013 by US NRC

12. Higher priced vehicles have a lower market share  Low on-cost solutions will be needed
Conventional vehicle
HEV vehicle
PHEV vehicle
Sale volume
BEV vehicle
Vehicle Price
Even Though a PHEV vehicle is a more cost effective way of reducing CO2,
Mild hybrids might be needed as it is a lower cost technology

13. What is needed to get a large impact?
Reduce on-cost of electrification
Standards
Infrastructure for charging
Sustainable production of electricity
Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD]

14. Reduce on-cost of electrification
Technology breakthrough in battery or continuous energy transfer
Target ~1000sek/kWh for 2020 for 10kWh battery pack
Integrated solutions to reduced complexity of systems
Combine all power electronics
Combine electric motor & power electronics
Integrated electric motors in transmissions
Lower cost system components
Electric distribution system, cables connectors etc..
Radiators and heat exchangers should be standard
Low cost internal combustion engines
Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD]
Issuer: [Name] [CDS-ID]; [Organisation]; [Name of document]; Security Class: [Proprietary]

15. Cost for Future power train?
Driving distance
Electric vehicle
Plug-in Hybrid
Conventionell
ICE Vehicle ?
Electric vehicle
Battery cost
Plug-in Hybrid
Cost
Conventionell
ICE Vehicle
Driving distance ?
99010 B. Grandin, VCC EPS Strategy

16. Conclusions Costs of electrification will come down
When electrification on-cost is in a range were first owners will have a return of investment, electrification will be mainstream!
PHEV and BEV will have different users
BEV: Short distance commuting
PHEV: Short distance commuting + occasional long distance
We will see both PHEV and BEV in the future

17. Integrated solutions, reduced complexity of systems
Examples
Cooling systems. We have three levels of cooling in hybrids C.
HV electronics ~50deg C
Batteries ~20-30deg C
Integration of HV electronics with el motors, combination charger & inverter, …
Integration of electric motors into the conventional drivetrain

18. Lower cost system components
Lower cost for ICE in hybrids
Current technology trend is downsizing 
Complex charging technology, Turbos, camshifting etc..
Expensive materials to cope with high power density
Expensive emission solutions to meet legislation
Hybrids can reduce cost on ICE by reducing transient requirements
Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD]
Issuer: [Name] [CDS-ID]; [Organisation]; [Name of document]; Security Class: [Proprietary]

19. Cost development of batteries
DoE target 2020
Cost estimated by study of battery costs for “Utredning Fosil Fri Fordonsflotta 2030”

20. Battery technology
We need new technology to achieve competitive technology for electrification
New technologies for batteries?
Continuous energy transfer?
PHEV Vs. battery vehicle?

21. Battery technology Vs. fossil Fuel
Energy
Current battery cell technology ~150Wh /kg
Diesel energy Wh/kg
Charging time:
Battery with fast charging 22kW results in ~140km range per hour
Diesel charging ~1000km range in two minutes…

22. Current PHEV PT cost split
11%
Brakes, cooling etc..
24%
Electric motors & inverters
37%
ICE + Transmission
Batteries are aproximately 45-50% of the on-cost of electrification
28%
Batteries

23. Cost for reducing CO2 with different electrification technology
RMB / g CO2 reduction
Start / Stop
Mild Hybrid
PHEV
BEV
Start / Stop ~5-8g reduction depending on engine and vehicle.
Mild Hybrid ~10-15g reduction using 48V Technology. PHEV ~80-90g reduction.
BEV ~ g reduction.

24. CEVT organisation

25. Current market situation
Market is increasing!
China is still not moving…
(However strongly motivated)
Japan mature
US rising
EU still lagging..