By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. September 13th, 2013 Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of MD-DC Utilities Association

First Pitch

Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014* Source: International Monetary Fund * data are projections

Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Estimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations) Source: IMF RankCountryRegion% RankCountryRegion% 1South Sudan Africa Barbados Caribbean 0.5 2Libya Middle East Bosnia and Herzegovina Eastern Europe 0.5 3Sierra Leone Africa Grenada Caribbean 0.5 4Mongolia Asia Czech Republic Europe 0.3 5Paraguay South America Belgium Europe 0.2 6Timor-Leste Southeast Asia Venezuela South America 0.1 7Iraq Middle East Luxembourg Europe 0.1 7Panama Central America Swaziland Africa 0.0 9The Gambia Africa Hungary Europe Mozambique Africa France Europe Dem. Rep. of the Congo Africa Croatia Eastern Europe Chad Africa Netherlands Europe China Asia Islamic Republic of Iran Middle East Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia Italy Europe Côte d'Ivoire Africa Spain Europe Zambia Africa Slovenia Eastern Europe Turkmenistan Central Asia Equatorial Guinea Africa Rwanda Africa Portugal Europe Liberia Africa San Marino Europe Kyrgyz Republic Central Asia Greece Europe -4.2

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2013 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund

Debt by Selected Country 2012 Source: IMF

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth RankExchangeIndex% Change 1NYSE GroupDJI A5.5% 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite-1.8% 3London SEFTSE % 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market Index-7.8% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite-9.2% 8Bolsa De MedridIGBM-14.6% 6Frankfurt SEDAX-14.7% 5EuronextCAC % 4Tokyo SENikkei % 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index-20.0% 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite-21.7% 10Borsa ItalianaFTSE MIB-25.2% Source: Yahoo! Finance

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth RankExchangeIndex% Change 6Frankfurt SEDAX 29.1% 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index 22.9% 4Tokyo SENikkei % 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite 15.9% 5EuronextCAC % 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market Index 14.9% 10Borsa ItalianaFTSE MIB 7.8% 1NYSE GroupDJI A 7.3% 3London SEFTSE % 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite 4.0% 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite 3.2% 8Bolsa De MadridIBEX % Source: Yahoo! Finance

RankExchangeIndex% Change 4Tokyo SENikkei % 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite 19.3% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market 16.7% 1NYSE GroupDJI A 15.1% 5EuronextCAC % 6Frankfurt SEDAX 10.2% 3London SEFTSE % 10BorsaItalianaFTSE MIB 8.6% 8Bolsa De MadridMadrid General 8.0% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite 2.4% 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index -0.6% 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite -8.8% Top 12 Stock Exchanges Year to date Growth Thru 8/16/13

S&P Select Sector Performance 2012 Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s

Second Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations Earnings per Share Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s SymbolQ Q Estimated Q Reported SurpriseSymbolQ Q Estimated Q Reported Surprise COF$2.20$1.74$2.13$0.39GE$0.38$0.35$0.36$0.01 BTU$0.73($0.05)$0.33$0.38VZ$0.64$0.72$0.73$0.01 VFC$1.11$1.17$1.27$0.10CMG$2.56$2.81$2.82$0.01 YHOO$0.27$0.26$0.35$0.09COH$0.86$0.89 $0.00 UTX$1.58$1.57$1.65$0.08MMM$1.66$1.71 $0.00 HON$1.14$1.21$1.28$0.07UPS$1.15$1.14$1.13($0.01) XRX$0.26$0.24$0.27$0.03MCD$1.32$1.40$1.38($0.02) STI$0.50$0.66$0.68$0.02TXN$0.44 $0.42($0.02) AMD$0.05($0.12)($0.10)$0.02MSFT($0.05)$0.74$0.59($0.15) DD$1.48$1.27$1.28$0.01FCX$0.80$0.46$0.22($0.24) DOW$0.55$0.63$0.64$0.01CAT$2.54$1.70$1.45($0.25)

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index April 2008 – August 2013 Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance S&P 500 index depicted in orange

Source: Moody’s Economy Recession Watch as of September 2013

Industrial Production March 2001 through July 2013 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q – Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Red Card/ Pink Slip

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through August 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics August 2013: +169K

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector August 2012 v. August 2013 All told 2,206 K Jobs gained

Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v. Part-time December 2007 – August 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Full-time: million Part-time: million

Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) July 2013 v. July 2012 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics MD Total: +39.0K; +1.5% US Total (SA): +2,276K; +1.7%

Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) July 2013 v. July 2012 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Baltimore MSA Total: +24.5K; +1.9% MD Total (NSA): +47.5K; +1.8% US Total (SA): +2,276K; +1.7%

Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) July 2013 v. July 2012 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics DC MSA Total: +50.6K; +1.7% US Total (SA): +2,276K; +1.7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7% Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) July 2012 v. July 2013 Percent Change RankState%RankState%RankState% 1Utah3.217Iowa1.735Hawaii1 2Arizona3.117Michigan1.735Illinois1 3Georgia2.817North Carolina1.735Kentucky1 4Colorado2.717Oregon1.735New Mexico1 4Idaho2.722California1.639Alabama0.9 4North Dakota2.723Maryland1.539New York0.9 4Texas2.723Vermont1.539Wisconsin0.9 8Washington2.325Connecticut1.439Wyoming0.9 9Mississippi2.225Virginia1.443Maine0.8 10Minnesota227Nevada1.343West Virginia0.8 10South Carolina228Arkansas1.245Nebraska0.7 12Florida1.928Kansas1.245Ohio0.7 12Indiana1.928Louisiana1.247Oklahoma0.6 12Montana1.928Massachusetts1.248District of Columbia0.5 12New Jersey1.928Tennessee1.248Pennsylvania0.5 16Missouri1.833New Hampshire1.150Rhode Island0.2 17Delaware1.733South Dakota1.151Alaska-0.5

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.4% Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) July 2013 RankStateRateRankStateRateRankStateRate 1North Dakota318Texas6.535Arizona8 2South Dakota3.919Idaho6.635Oregon8 3Nebraska4.220Wisconsin6.837Connecticut8.1 4Hawaii4.521Maine6.937South Carolina8.1 5Utah4.621New Mexico6.939Indiana8.4 5Vermont4.621Washington6.940Kentucky8.5 5Wyoming4.624Louisiana740Mississippi8.5 8Iowa4.825Colorado7.140Tennessee8.5 9New Hampshire5.125Florida7.143District of Columbia8.6 10Minnesota5.225Maryland7.143New Jersey8.6 11Montana5.325Missouri7.145California8.7 11Oklahoma5.329Massachusetts7.246Georgia8.8 13Virginia5.729Ohio7.246Michigan8.8 14Kansas5.931Arkansas7.448North Carolina8.9 15West Virginia6.231Delaware7.448Rhode Island8.9 16Alabama6.333New York7.550Illinois9.2 16Alaska6.333Pennsylvania7.551Nevada9.5

Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) July 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics RankMSAUR RankMSAUR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area7.5 2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA- MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area7.8 3 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area8 5 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area8.4 6 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area8.6 7 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area9.6 7 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area9.8 9 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area11

MD County Unemployment Rates July 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics RankJurisdictionURRankJurisdictionUR 1Montgomery County5.312Kent County7.2 2Howard County5.512Harford County7.2 3Frederick County5.915Baltimore County7.4 4Carroll County6.216Worcester County7.6 5Queen Anne's County6.417Caroline County8 6Calvert County6.518Cecil County8.2 7Anne Arundel County6.619Washington County8.4 7St. Mary's County6.619Wicomico County8.4 9Charles County6.721Allegany County8.6 10Talbot County6.822Dorchester County10 11Prince George's County7.123Somerset County Garrett County7.224Baltimore City10.8

Pad Save

15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through August 2013 Source: Freddie Mac

Messages from Federal Open Market Committee, July 2013 ( T)he Committee decided to continue adding policy accommodation by purchasing additional MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month the Committee reaffirmed its intention to keep the target federal funds rate at.00 to ¼ percent... exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6½ percent. Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Bloomberg. (June. 28 th, 2013). “Lacker Says Markets to Stay Volatile as Fed Debates Tapering”

U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through July 2013 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through July 2013 Source: Census Bureau

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros June 2013, 12-Month Percentage Change Source: Standard & Poor’s

Put me in, Coach

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 – August 2013 Source: Conference Board

U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales January 2002 through August 2013 Source: Census Bureau

Sales Growth by Type of Business August 2012 v. August 2013* Source: Census Bureau *August 2013 advanced estimate

National Vehicle Sales June 2004 through August 2013 (SAAR) Source: Autodata Corp.

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through July 2013 Source: Conference Board

Fourth Quarter As predicted, first half of year was quite soft in terms of economic expansion as sequestration and tax hikes make their mark; Second half of year should be better, with growth likely to average a shade above 2 percent;. Many headwinds remain and the recovery could easily falter; Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; Maryland has held its own to date, but there are major discrepancies between the household survey and the establishment survey – one of them is probably wrong; and We are an increasingly part- time nation – that looks like a problem.

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